最近的分行

最近的分行

亚洲市场展望

2024年市场展望

利率重置过后

在展望今年之前,让我们先回顾一下去年此时对2023年的预测。当时的气氛与今日截然不同。一年前,全球都在担忧根深蒂固的通胀问题、全球经济会陷入衰退,还有欧洲的能源危机。2022年,美国股市下跌了20%,债券市场也录得历史性损失,市场自然看淡前景。 相比之下,目前的标普指数和纳斯达克指数均创历史新高,市场普遍对全球经济及市场前景感到乐观。

展望今年全年,摩根大通私人银行认为,投资者需要考虑的重要走势,就是美国本轮的加息周期似乎已经结束;自2022年3月以来累计加息500个基点后,「利率重置」阶段已然告一段落。

利率重置过后

观乎历史数据,当加息周期结束时,债券和股票往往会表现向好。

Grace Peters,全球投资策略部主管

我们认为,不把资金投进投资市场导致的机会成本已愈发明显。债券方面,我们建议锁定收益率——因为当前的高收益率可能难以持久。股市方面,我们预计2024年股市将持续攀升,并在未来企业盈利复苏的推动下创下更多历史新高。

利率重置过后
为什么现在应减少现金配置?

债券在投资组合中仍然重要,既可以作为收入来源,也可以防范下行风险。

王然,全球市场策略师

我们认为美联储将从2024年中开始降息,年内可以降息125个基点,年底联邦基金利率将降至4.00%-4.25%。我们建议卖出久期较长的债券,转投久期较短的高评级债券。5年左右久期的债券收益率仍然可观,而且波动性较低。

为什么现在应减少现金配置?
为何对股市持积极态度?

2023年,标普500指数表现强劲,我们继续看好它在2024年的走势,预计年底可望达到4,950-5,050点,并将在其中逢低买入。

周昕仪,亚洲股票策略師

我们目前预计2024年和2025年的企业盈利将取得7-9%的增幅。我们的基准情境假设经济将会放缓,这通常对优质股和成长股的利多过价值股。因此在行业偏好方面,我们更看好科技、医疗保健和非必需消费品等板块。在整个亚洲,我们首选的市场仍然是印度,预计约15%的企业营利成长将转化为10%出头的股市回报。

为何对股市持积极态度?
2024年如何用外汇提升投资表现?

直到美国经济出现明显放缓的迹象,美元才会开始较为持续的跌势。

唐雨旋,全球市场策略师

美国的经济增长势头仍然强于其他主要经济体,尤其是欧洲和中国,这将在未来1-2个季度里,对美元币值构成支撑。我们认为在外汇领域,投资者可以考虑三件事。首先,对冲投资组合中基本面较弱或存在利率劣势。其次,利用外汇来降低借贷成本。最后,在投资组合中加仓黄金。

2024年如何用外汇提升投资表现?
如何建立具韧性的长期投资组合

2024年是风险和机会并存的一年,需要谨慎应对,但投资者可以将眼光放得更加长远,考虑自己的投资组合配置是否能够帮助实现长期目标。那么,如何从长而定,建立一个具韧性的投资组合?

陈纬衡,全球市场策略师

总体来看,客户仍然配置了过多的现金资产,而另类投资的配置非常少。尽管现金资产最近很受投资者欢迎,但长期来看很难跑赢大盘。随着利率上调和股票估值仍然合理,经典的60/40股债投资组合依旧具有吸引力,预计未来10-15年回报率有望达到7.0%。多元化配置另类资产作为传统投资组合的补充,有望增加回报,同时降低波动性,从而带来更好的投资组合业绩。

如何建立具韧性的长期投资组合

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