最近的分行

最近的分行

投资策略

中国股市上涨:是真AI吗?

中国股市近期成为表现最佳的主要市场之一,离岸股票年初至今上涨近20%,自去年9月(就在政府宣布全面刺激方案之前)触底以来上涨近40%。尽管如此,市场目前才重新测试之前的高点。年初至今的涨幅主要由围绕DeepSeek(深度求索)和近期人工智能(AI)发展的积极情绪推动估值扩张所致,而非宏观前景的根本改善。这引发了一个问题:这轮反弹到底是不是真AI?

年初至今中国股市的反弹主要由估值扩张推动

总回报百分比(本币)

资料来源:彭博财经、摩根大通私人银行。数据截至2025年2月20日。*摩根大通私人银行每股盈利估算。
在本期《亚洲策略焦点》中,我们将探讨中国AI发展的宏观影响,识别有望受益的行业和领域,评估股市涨势,并重点指出投资者可以找到机会的领域。

我们的观点

随着AI模型(如DeepSeek的R1)的快速推广应用,预计将推动投资增加,尤其是在特定行业应用方面。中国在实施AI方面更具成本效益,可能会促进自动驾驶、机器人和云服务等领域的创新发展。然而,家庭消费疲软和外部风险等挑战依然存在,需要政府的支持性政策提振。

投资启示

这些本地AI发展为中国股票营造了新的视角,可能推动生产力提升和盈利上调。然而,在岸投资者中仍存在怀疑态度,AI驱动的盈利增长路径尚不明确,需要的时间可能比预期的长。当前的反弹提供了减少中国市场敞口的机会,因为市场估值接近平均水平。尽管如此,在AI受益者、自动驾驶和机器人领域仍有选择性机会。建议使用带有缓冲和下行保护的结构性产品,以增强投资组合的韧性。虽然AI的应用可能提高企业效率,但存在劳动力需求减少和地缘政治挑战等潜在风险。

中国的AI机遇是否真实可及?

人工智能(AI)正在成为中国一个重要的投资主题。DeepSeek的R1模型发布后,促使中外企业采用现有的或开发新的开源模型。成本的降低和大型语言模型(LLM)的普及可能会加速AI的应用。我们预计中国的AI相关投资和应用将会增加。虽然美国在硬件和研究方面领先,但中国在实施上更具成本效益,允许在特定行业应用中进行试验。我们认为,各个中国行业和公司可以利用数据和规模优势来增强消费者和商业互动。

股市反弹是可持续的还是短暂的?

中国的AI发展为投资者营造了对中国股票的新视角,可能推动生产力提升和盈利上调。然而,由传统周期性板块如银行和消费主导的中国在岸A股市场仍然不温不火,反映出对中国经济复苏的怀疑态度。这一点在离岸市场的反弹中也得到了体现,反弹主要集中在少数AI股票,而非AI股票自年初以来则表现不佳。

中国AI受益者与非AI受益者之间的显着表现差异

自DeepSeek R1模型于2025年1月20日发布以来的表现

资料来源:彭博财经、摩根大通私人银行。数据截至2025年2月26日。

我们认为,AI驱动的每股盈利(EPS)上升可能需要比市场预期更长的时间才能实现。尽管市场普遍预期中国的AI采用将在2025年略微推动企业取得中个位数的盈利增长,但由于预期过高,公司指引可能令人期望落空。鉴于AI的货币化可能需要时间,大规模资本支出,如阿里巴巴520亿美元的AI资本支出计划(超过过去十年的总和),不一定能够带来即时回报。对投资者而言,关键是在AI价值链中进行选择,识别出具有强大适应和执行能力的真正受益者,例如比亚迪近期在自动驾驶方面达到技术提升。

虽然AI可以提高企业效率和利润率,但可能会减少劳动力需求,增加失业和社会不稳定的风险 —— 这或会导致更多的监管,旨在确保AI的采用符合社会政治层面的就业需求。此外,美国加征更高关税,并收紧芯片出口的限制也可能影响中国的AI发展。目前活跃的股市可能忽视了这些风险。

投资者的资金流动和持仓布局给予我们什么信息?

国际投资者是否已重返中国市场?许多人认为AI的应用是一股更可预测的驱动力,有望令中国股票迎来结构性重估,类似于近年来AI对美国股市的影响,这促使他们通过增加高贝塔增长的AI股票来减少低配程度。DeepSeek发布后的强劲势头在很大程度上归因于投资者之前低配中国股市。阿里巴巴等行业领袖的积极指引和强劲的AI产品发布也鼓励了本地投资者增加对中国AI股票的持仓。

来自中国内地投资者的资金流入香港股票的势头有所增强,即使全球资金流动仍为负值

百万美元

资料来源:Haver Analytics,香港交易及结算所有限公司。数据截至2025年2月21日。

总体而言,区域对冲基金和散户投资者仍在依靠势头进行交易,但需要注意的是,他们通常非常战术性,也可能会迅速撤离市场。长期持有型基金仍相对谨慎,对中国市场保持低配或中性立场,尽管过去一个月低配程度有所减少。到目前为止,资金流动中出现了一些有趣的趋势:我们观察到来自中国大陆的资金强劲流入个别的香港上市股票,推动了市场反弹,而流入中国基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)的整体资金流动为负,这可能反映了资金从指数相关策略流出,并转投特定AI相关股票。

在中国股市应该如何部署?

我们将此次反弹视为减少中国市场敞口的机会,因为恒生指数接近24,000点,MSCI中国指数接近75点。鉴于在岸和离岸市场均处于平均估值水平(MSCI中国指数为11.5倍,沪深300指数为13倍),我们对两者没有偏好。虽然AI的推广应用可能为中国市场提供一个在更高区间交易的新角度,但从当前水平追逐反弹的风险回报率看起来吸引力欠佳,因为乐观情绪已在价格中反映。更广泛的AI使用带来的可量化的盈利上调也可能促使我们进一步上调展望。但我们可能要到下半年才能看到这些改善的更多证据。如果伴随着更广泛的经济复苏,尤其是在消费和房地产领域,以及公司将产生可持续的每股收益增长的迹象(过去十年中这一点明显缺乏),我们会对结构性上调中国的评级感到更有信心。到2025年,投资者可以将AI应用、自动驾驶和机器人作为关键主题。在这个波动的市场中,带有缓冲和下行保护的结构性产品可以增强投资组合的韧性。

选择性是投资者的关键:哪些行业和领域有望受益?

某些行业有望从AI的广泛应用中显着受益,投资者热衷于寻找这一领域的领导者。尽管我们处于早期阶段,但企业领导者的初步反应表明,少数行业可能会引领潮流。自动驾驶和机器人是两个快速发展的领域,可能会经历更快的产品开发周期,因为开源AI模型的成本大幅降低。鉴于中国制造商已经在国际同行中具有竞争优势,这些行业在不受贸易限制的情况下也具有很高的出口潜力。

中国更广泛的数字经济涵盖产品制造(如机器人和半导体)、产品服务(如游戏)、技术应用(如软件、物联网和数据中心),以及生产要素(如平台和智能物流)。这个数字生态系统的行业收入达48万亿元人民币,相当于GDP的38%。无论是从规模还是对经济增长的乘数效应来看,其影响力都可能超过房地产及相关建筑行业。中国高度的数字化程度凸显了AI应用于这些行业的潜力。

中国的数字经济已达到显着规模

2023年行业收入,万亿人民币

资料来源:中国国家统计局、摩根大通私人银行。数据截至2025年2月28日。*数字经济核心行业包括数字产品制造(如机器人、半导体)、数字产品服务(如游戏)、数字技术应用(如软件、物联网)、数字作为生产要素(如平台、智能物流)。

电动车行业尤为突出,去年中国的使用率已迅速上升,占所有新车销售的一半以上。自动驾驶功能的提升可能会进一步推动电动车的广泛使用。企业和政府也可以利用这项技术来升级车队和公共交通网络的管理。

自动化机器人在AI领域有直接的应用,特别是在中国仍作为世界上最大的制造经济体的背景下。与任何资本支出周期一样,基础设施提供商如数据中心和为其服务的上游供应链可能会受益。云服务提供商可能是早期受益者,随后是AI应用程序,这些应用程序中由AI驱动的产品功能可能获得显着提升。大型互联网公司可以通过提供更多差异化的服务与AI助手来提高用户的参与度。

某些行业可能引领中国AI的采用

AI采用的潜在受益者

资料来源:摩根大通私人银行。数据截至2025年2月28日。

中国AI发展的宏观影响

AI在中国的广泛实施可能会对经济产生积极影响。在短期内,AI的建设可能需要增加资本支出。我们估计,大型互联网公司和其他行业的资本支出在未来两到三年内可能达到1万亿元人民币。这可能会提振商业信心,以及推动近年来私营部门表现持续低迷的投资周期转为复苏。这些投资的成果可能需要时间才能显现,因此从生产力的角度来看,AI真正带来收益可能还需要几年时间。

另一个重要问题是消费者信心如何回应DeepSeek的发展和股市反弹带来的新信心。信心不足和消费疲软一直是制约中国经济的关键因素。如果近期的发展足以引发更广泛的转变,其影响可能会更快显现。

与此同时,也存在AI无法解决的问题。自2024年底以来,房地产行业虽显示出一些稳定的迹象,但由于库存水平较高,负面财富效应尚未消散。作为经济从房地产行业转型的一部分,政府可能需要加大对家庭消费的支持。2024年底的家电“以旧换新”计划取得了一定成功。我们估计,政府的1700亿元人民币支持计划已额外带动了3000亿元人民币的零售销售,超出了计划所涵盖的商品。2025年,该计划可能扩展至更多商品,甚至可能包括服务,这可能有助于进一步提振零售销售。即将召开的全国人民代表大会(NPC)可能会确认一个更有利于刺激内需的政策环境。

另一个风险可能来自外部。今年以来,关税阻力比预期小得多。然而鉴于这一领域的变化可能非常迅速,我们不能理所当然地认为出口环境会一直保持强劲。外部不确定性需要政策来加强国内需求。

国内需求处于历史低位(不包括疫情期间)

对实际GDP的贡献,百分比

资料来源:中国国家统计局、摩根大通私人银行。数据截至2024年12月31日。

货币展望

从货币的角度来看,股票市场的积极情绪已蔓延至外汇市场,尽管这种股票与外汇的相关性可能是短暂的。预计股市资金流入将瞄准离岸市场的AI受益者,而人民币的走势则取决于潜在的在岸股市资金流动,预计这些流动将较为有限的。

中美利率差近期从双方收窄,但这可能是短暂

资料来源:彭博财经、摩根大通私人银行。数据截至2025年2月24日。

近期人民币离岸市场(CNH)的走强也可归因于中美之间利率差的缩小。在本轮周期中,CNH对利率变动的敏感性增加,因为它已成为一种低收益的融资货币。尽管美国长期国债收益率已从1月的高点回落,但由于技术性调整和轻微的通胀改善,中国国债收益率已从去年底的历史低位反弹。然而,这种压缩可能不会持续,预计将保持较大利率差,因为中国人民银行放松货币政策,而美联储采取谨慎态度。

这并未改变我们对CNH的看空预期。自特朗普总统当选以来,美元兑人民币离岸市场(USDCNH)保持相对稳定,主要由于中国人民银行加大了干预力度。然而,关税风险的持续影响和较大的负利差可能会继续对该货币施加压力。投资者或许可以考虑利用近期的汇率波动对冲CNH的多头敞口,或将其用作融资货币。

除另有注明外,所有市场和经济数据 截至2025年3月3日,来自彭博财经和 FactSet。

仅供说明用途。本文件载列的预估、预测及比较数字全部均为截至本文件所述日期为止。

本文所示信息并不旨在对任何政府决定或政治选举的偏好结果作出有价值的判断。

指数并非投资产品,不可视作为投资。

仅供说明用途。不反映任何特定投资情景分析的表现,亦没有考虑可能影响实际表现的其他多个不同因素。

我们不建议使用基准指标作为业绩表现分析用途工具。本报告中使用的基准指标仅供您参考之用。

过往表现并非未来业绩的保证。不可直接投资于指数。

本文所示信息并不旨在对任何政府决定或政治选举的偏好结果作出价值判断。

风险考虑因素

  • 过往表现并非未来业绩的指引。不可直接投资指数。
  • 价格和回报率仅为示意性的,它们可能会随着时间的推移根据市况发生变化。
  • 所有投资策略都存在额外的风险考虑因素。
  • 本文件提供的信息并非关于买卖任何投资产品或服务的推荐或要约或邀约。
  • 本文件表述的观点可能不同于摩根大通其他领域表述的观点。不得将本材料视为投资研究或摩根大通的投资研究报告。
中国的人工智能(AI)机遇是否真实可及?

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In Germany, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE, with its registered office at  Taunustor 1 (TaunusTurm), 60310 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB). In Luxembourg, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE – Luxembourg Branch, with registered office at European Bank and Business Centre, 6 route de Treves, L-2633, Senningerberg, Luxembourg, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Luxembourg Branch is also supervised by the Commission de Surveillance du    Secteur Financier (CSSF); registered under R.C.S Luxembourg B255938. In the United Kingdom, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE – London Branch, registered office     at 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – London Branch is also supervised by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. In Spain, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE, Sucursal en España, with registered office at Paseo de la Castellana, 31, 28046 Madrid, Spain, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE, Sucursal en España is also supervised by the Spanish Securities Market Commission (CNMV); registered with Bank of Spain as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 1567. In Italy, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Milan Branch, with its registered office at Via Cordusio, n.3, Milan 20123,  Italy, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Milan Branch is also supervised by Bank  of Italy and the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB); registered with Bank of Italy as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 8076; Milan Chamber of Commerce Registered Number: REA MI 2536325. In the Netherlands, this material is distributed by  J.P. Morgan SE – Amsterdam Branch, with registered office at World Trade Centre,       Tower B, Strawinskylaan 1135, 1077 XX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Amsterdam Branch is also supervised by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and the Autoriteit Financiële Markten (AFM) in the Netherlands. Registered with the Kamer van Koophandel as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under registration number 72610220. In Denmark, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Copenhagen Branch, filial af J.P. Morgan SE, Tyskland, with registered office at Kalvebod Brygge 39-41, 1560 København V, Denmark, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Copenhagen Branch, filial af J.P. Morgan SE, Tyskland is also supervised by Finanstilsynet (Danish FSA) and is registered with Finanstilsynet as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 29010. In Sweden, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Stockholm Bankfilial, with registered office at Hamngatan 15, Stockholm, 11147, Sweden, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Stockholm Bankfilial is also supervised by Finansinspektionen (Swedish FSA); registered with Finansinspektionen as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE. In Belgium, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Brussels Branch with registered office at 35 Boulevard du Régent, 1000, Brussels, Belgium, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB);  J.P. Morgan SE Brussels Branch is also supervised by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) and the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA) in Belgium; registered with the NBB under registration number 0715.622.844. In Greece, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Athens Branch, with its registered office at 3 Haritos Street, Athens, 10675, Greece, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Athens Branch is also supervised by Bank of Greece; registered with Bank of Greece as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 124; Athens Chamber of Commerce Registered Number 158683760001; VAT Number 99676577. In France, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Paris Branch, with its registered office at 14, Place Vendome 75001 Paris, France, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB) under code 842 422 972; J.P. Morgan SE – Paris Branch is also supervised by the French banking authorities the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR) and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). In Switzerland, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, with registered address at rue du Rhône, 35, 1204, Geneva, Switzerland, which is authorised and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) as a bank and a securities dealer in Switzerland.

In Hong Kong, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Hong Kong branch. JPMCB, Hong Kong branch is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, we will cease to use your personal data for our marketing purposes without charge if you so request. In Singapore, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Singapore branch. JPMCB, Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Dealing and advisory services and discretionary investment management services are provided to you by JPMCB, Hong Kong/Singapore branch (as notified to you). Banking and custody services are provided to you by JPMCB Singapore Branch. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong, Singapore or any other jurisdictions. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to this document. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. For materials which constitute product advertisement under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisers Act, this advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., a national banking association chartered under the laws of the United States, and as a body corporate, its shareholder’s liability is limited.

With respect to countries in Latin America, the distribution of this material may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. We may offer and/or sell to you securities or other financial instruments which may not be registered under, and are not the subject of a public offering under, the securities or other financial regulatory laws of your home country. Such securities or instruments are offered and/or sold to you on a private basis only. Any communication by us to you regarding such securities or instruments, including without limitation the delivery of a prospectus, term sheet or other offering document, is not intended by us as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or instruments in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or a solicitation is unlawful. Furthermore, such securities or instruments may be subject to certain regulatory and/or contractual restrictions on subsequent transfer by you, and you are solely responsible for ascertaining and complying with such restrictions. To the extent this content makes reference to a fund, the Fund may not be publicly offered in any Latin American country, without previous registration of such fund´s securities in compliance with the laws of the corresponding jurisdiction.

References to “J.P. Morgan” are to JPM, its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. “J.P. Morgan Private Bank” is the brand name for the private banking business conducted by JPM. This material is intended for your personal use and should not be circulated to or used by any other person, or duplicated for non-personal use, without our permission. If you have any questions or no longer wish to receive these communications, please contact your J.P. Morgan team.

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCBNA) (ABN 43 074 112 011/AFS Licence No: 238367) is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Material provided by JPMCBNA in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Please inform us if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

JPMS is a registered foreign company (overseas) (ARBN 109293610) incorporated in Delaware, U.S.A. Under Australian financial services licensing requirements, carrying on a financial services business in Australia requires a financial service provider, such as J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL), unless an exemption applies. JPMS is exempt from the requirement to hold an AFSL under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Act) in respect of financial services it provides to you, and is regulated by the SEC, FINRA and CFTC under US laws, which differ from Australian laws. Material provided by JPMS in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. The information provided in this material is not intended to be, and must not be, distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons in Australia. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Act. Please inform us immediately if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

This material has not been prepared specifically for Australian investors. It:

  • may contain references to dollar amounts which are not Australian dollars;
  • may contain financial information which is not prepared in accordance with Australian law or practices;
  • may not address risks associated with investment in foreign currency denominated investments; and
  • does not address Australian tax issues.

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投资产品(可能包括银行管理账户及托管)乃由 JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.及其关联公司(合称「摩根大通银行」 )作为其一部分信托及委托服务而提供。其他投资产品及服务(例如证券经纪及咨询账户)乃由 摩根大通证券(J.P. Morgan Securities LLC)(「摩根大通证券」)提供。摩根大通证券是金融业监管局证券投资者保护公司的成员。摩根大通银行及摩根大通证券均为受摩根大通共同控制的关联公司。产品不一定于美国所有州份提供。请与本网站内容一并阅览法律免责声明

 

当阅览这些页面时,请与(摩根私人银行地区联属机构和其他重要信息)的法律免责声明和相关存款保障计划的内容一并阅读。

 

DEPOSIT PROTECTION SCHEME 存款保障計劃   JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.是存款保障計劃的成員。本銀行接受的合資格存款受存保計劃保障,最高保障額為每名存款人HK$500,000。   JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. is a member of the Deposit Protection Scheme. Eligible deposits taken by this Bank are protected by the Scheme up to a limit of HK$500,000 per depositor.
投资产品: • 不受联邦存款保险公司保障 • 非摩根大通银行或其任何联属机构的存款或其他负债,亦未获摩根大通银行或其任何联属机构的担保 • 存在投资风险,包括可能损失投资的本金
银行存款产品(例如支票、储蓄及银行贷款)及相关服务乃由摩根大通银行(JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.)提供。 摩根大通银行是美国联邦存款保险公司的成员。并非借贷承诺。授信额度均须经信贷审批。