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亞洲市場展望

2024年市場展望

利率重置過後

在展望今年之前,讓我們先回顧一下去年此時對2023年的預測。當時的氣氛與今日截然不同。一年前,全球都在擔憂根深蒂固的通脹問題、全球經濟會陷入衰退,還有歐洲的能源危機。2022年,美國股市下跌了20%,債券市場也錄得歷史性損失,市場自然看淡前景。 相比之下,目前的標普指數和納斯達克指數均創歷史新高,市場普遍對全球經濟及市場前景感到樂觀。

展望今年全年,摩根大通私人銀行認為,投資者需要考慮的重要走勢,就是美國本輪的加息週期似乎已經結束;自2022年3月以來累計加息500個基點後,「利率重置」階段已然告一段落。

利率重置過後

觀乎歷史數據,當加息週期結束時,債券和股票往往會表現向好。

Grace Peters,全球投資策略部主管

我們認為,不把資金投進投資市場導致的機會成本已愈發明顯。債券方面,我們建議鎖定收益率——因為當前的高收益率可能難以持久。股市方面,我們預計2024年股市將持續攀升,並在未來企業盈利復甦的推動下創下更多歷史新高。

利率重置過後
為什麼現在應減少現金配置?

債券在投資組合中仍然重要,既可以作為收入來源,也可以防範下行風險。

王然,全球市場策略師

我們認為聯儲局將從2024年中開始降息,年內可以降息125個基點,年底聯邦基金利率將降至4.00%-4.25%。我們建議賣出存續期較長的債券,轉投存續期較短的高評級債券。5年左右存續期的債券收益率仍然可觀,而且波動性較低。

為什麼現在應減少現金配置?
為何對股市持積極態度?

2023年,標普500指數表現強勁,我們繼續看好它在2024年的走勢,預計年底可望達到4,950-5,050點,並將在其中逢低買入。

周昕儀,亞洲股票策略師

我們目前預計2024年和2025年的企業盈利將取得7-9%的增幅。我們的基準情境假設經濟將會放緩,這通常對優質股和成長股的利多過價值股。因此在行業偏好方面,我們更看好科技、醫療保健和非必需消費品等板塊。在整個亞洲,我們首選的市場仍然是印度,預計約15%的企業營利成長將轉化為10%出頭的股市回報。

為何對股市持積極態度?
2024年如何用外匯提升投資表現?

直到美国经济出现明显放缓的迹象,美元才会开始较为持续的跌势。

唐雨旋,全球市場策略師

美國的經濟增長勢頭仍然強於其他主要經濟體,尤其是歐洲和中國,這將在未來1-2個季度裏,對美元幣值構成支撐。我們認為在外匯領域,投資者可以考慮三件事。首先,對沖投資組合中基本面較弱或存在利率劣勢。其次,利用外匯來降低借貸成本。最後,在投資組合中加倉黃金。

2024年如何用外匯提升投資表現?
如何建立具韌性的長期投資組合

2024年是風險和機會並存的一年,需要謹慎應對,但投資者可以將眼光放得更加長遠,考慮自己的投資組合配置是否能夠幫助實現長期目標。那麼,如何從長而定,建立一個具韌性的投資組合?

陳緯衡,全球市場策略師

總體來看,客戶仍然配置了過多的現金資產,而另類投資的配置非常少。儘管現金資產最近很受投資者歡迎,但長期來看很難跑贏大盤。隨著利率上調和股票估值仍然合理,經典的60/40股債投資組合依舊具有吸引力,預計未來10-15年回報率有望達到7.0%。多元化配置另類資產作為傳統投資組合的補充,有望增加回報,同時降低波動性,從而帶來更好的投資組合業績。

如何建立具韌性的長期投資組合

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