機遇與挑戰並存
投資策略
2026年市場展望網絡研討會
了解我們的投資專家對明年市場趨勢的解讀，以及投資者該如何提前布局。（僅提供英文版本）
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Hello. Welcome. My name is Clay Erwin. Thank you very much for choosing to share part of your day with us. Together, I'm joined by Grace Peters and Steve Parker, and together we represent the global investment strategy team.
And over the course of the next 30 minutes, we aim to share with you our outlook for 2026, promise and pressure. Here within this document, we share our expectation for capital market returns over the course of 2026. But we also examine the tension that exists between macro forces and capital market returns.
Now, as we do this, it's important to consider the background in which we find ourselves today. Here we are in the twilight of 2025, finishing a year that we characterized as comfortably uncomfortable. And here we experienced a year in which there were shifting geopolitical forces but also equity markets, which reached all-time highs, a declining dollar, and lower interest rates as well.
And our expectation is for 2026 to be quite similar in an environment of shifting macro forces but still record equity levels, a stable dollar, lower interest rates, but persistent inflation. Now, with that is a backdrop, we need to consider how it is that we are going to get there. And within our outlook, we examine three primary forces or megatrends that we think will characterize much of 2026, specifically artificial intelligence, global fragmentation, and persistent inflation.
So, Steve, I'd like to bring you into the conversation. Steve Parker, our Co-Head of Global Investment Strategy. Artificial intelligence is part of all conversations. It feels almost ubiquitous. So as we think about artificial intelligence, both in 2025 and 2026, it has had a tangible and real impact on our daily lives. Would you help us understand the impact that it has had on the capital markets?
Yeah, Clay, it's hard to overstate what sort of impact that it has had. If you look back to the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, 75% of the gains, 80% of the earnings, and 90% of the capital spending growth of the S&P has been driven by AI-related companies.
If you think about the capital spending and the impact on the economy in the US, in the first half of this year, AI-related spend contributed more to growth than the consumer. I'd argue, you can't have a view on markets without having a view on AI.
All right. So, before we talk more about AI itself, let's talk about some of those numbers. I was shocked the first time that you shared them with me. 80% of the profits. 90% of the spending. How concerned are you that there might be a bubble in the space? And I remind you, a bubble could come from a lot of things. It might be overspending. It could be overleverage, or perhaps just prices that are too high. Perhaps we start with the first one first.
You talked about AI being ubiquitous. I'd say that bubble concerns around AI are also rather ubiquitous. When we think about the path forward for new technology and transformative things like AI, I think it's important to have a framework and to ask ourselves those key questions, and also to look back on history at previous bubbles to help us understand what are the key things that we should be watching.
The first one that you mentioned is overcapacity and the amount of spending. You see new headlines about data centers each and every day. And this is where I think looking back to the bubble is particularly informative.
In the late '90s, there was nearly 40 million miles of fiber that was installed to support the internet. And by mid-2001, about 1% of that was actually being used. It was supply in search of demand. The AI story couldn't be more different. If you look at data center vacancy rates, it's at historic lows, 1 and 1/2%. And for all of the headlines about new construction, 3/4 of the capacity from that new construction is already preleased.
Well, that is materially different. In the year 2000, we did see a tremendous amount of overbuild in anticipation of demand. And we actually see now is the opposite, that we are building and still unable to meet what feels like an insatiable appetite for power, for processing.
Let's talk a little bit about leverage then. What we've seen in recent years is the majority of spend within the art of the artificial intelligence ecosystem has been funded from free cash flow. But now we're actually starting to see some of the market participants issuing debt and debt financing some of these investments. Does that cause concern?
If we think about this bubble framework as a traffic light, if you will, this leverage question is something that's probably starting to flash yellow. As you said, most of the spend up to this point has been funded from earnings and free cash flow from the hyperscalers, who have had tremendous amounts of success and earnings growth. That reduces the risk related to the story.
Recently, the next phase of growth is looking to be increasingly financed by debt, as well as free cash flow and equity. That's something that we need to keep an eye on. But when you look at credit spreads, when you look at the cash flow generation that's still coming from these companies, it's not something that makes us overly concerned at this point.
Well, let's talk a little bit about some of the circularity that we've seen in this investment. There's some cases where you see providers of the AI value chain providing capital as well to the consumers of their product. Does that cause concern?
Yeah, it certainly increases the connectivity of the AI ecosystem. So as you're explaining, what does this mean? Chipmakers, rather than just selling to their customers now, are also financing them or even investing in them.
And I'd say in the short term, this is actually probably a positive. It reinforces the momentum around this build out, supports the continued growth. But as I said, it also increases that connectivity. So inevitably, when we do hit that bump in the road, it means that you should probably expect more volatility from a more connected environment.
You said at the onset that 80% of the equity market returns have been derived in part from artificial intelligence. When you think about the equity market returns, when you think about the prices that you have to pay for these companies now, basically the valuation story, how do you marry the opportunity set with what feels like the elevated valuations of today?
Yeah, I think when you look at valuations, we're seeing more excitement than euphoria. And this is another area where this seems very different from the internet bubble. First and foremost, the absolute level of PE multiples on these AI-related names, while high, are certainly nowhere near the exuberance that we saw in the late '90s.
The other important dynamic that I think is really important is that while these companies have seen tremendous gains in their stock prices, multiples have actually come down in recent years. And that's because earnings growth has surpassed even that capital appreciation. We think that these multiples are justified as long as that growth trajectory can continue. And we're confident that will be the case.
So we spent a lot of time talking about the capital markets. Let's talk a little bit about real life. Let's talk about Main Street. One of the other concerns, if you will, is the disruption to the labor force. I'm sure that there are many people on the call today that have kids that are either entering or are about to enter the labor force. And there are these concerns about, what is the job market going to look like tomorrow? And how different will it be from the previous decade?
Yeah, I think the job market is going to adapt. And the labor force of the future is going to look different from the labor force of today. We think this is likely to happen in two phases, initially with a lot of the focus on automation, greater productivity. Certainly there are going to be industries like customer support, like coding, that are likely to be under pressure.
But at the same time, you have this critical infrastructure, whether it's related to power or cybersecurity, where new jobs are going to be created right away. Longer term, the next phase of this is about growth and imagining the unimaginable.
When you think we were talking earlier about the internet boom and the fact that when we were first looking at this bubble, nobody could have anticipated that today there would be 67 million content creators taking advantage of the internet. And that doesn't even include our own social influencer, financial influencer, Grace Peters, over here.
Let's not bring Grace in quite yet. So, in summary, you recognize that the trend that we've enjoyed for the last couple of years is likely going to continue. Now, ultimately, what that means in terms of capital market returns, what that means for the labor market is something that we're still going to have to wait and see how it plays out.
l Investment Strategy based in London, thank you very much for joining us today. Thrilled to have you. You've spent a lot of time matching investment opportunities with this mega trend. So when you think about how to best capture or participate in some of this growth, where do you start the conversation?
Yeah, so-- I mean, we have to say that we're in a new phase of AI here. We're at the phase where adoption is ramping up. I think the technology is proven. And when that comes to the investment opportunities, we really like to invest across public and private markets, public markets because that's often where the strong balance sheets, the cash flows that you guys have referenced already exist, and private markets because I think many of the AI opportunities, they aren't yet evident to us. They don't necessarily exist.
So we tend to employ a four-point approach. The first still does start with the hyperscalers. So we're talking about the large-cap tech players, the Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft of the world. And that's because the market has consistently underestimated the CapEx that these hyperscalers need to invest to meet demand.
And by extension, the market has consistently underestimated the earnings growth. And we think that earnings growth can continue at around a pace of about 20% per year over the next couple of years. So the short to medium term, I think, still favors these hyperscalers to capture the benefit of cloud and AI infrastructure as well.
If I could get you to spend a second longer on that earnings growth conversation, Steve was talking about how the equity markets are likely to continue to trade up over the course of the year, and that he's not concerned about valuations. Is it because of this disproportionately high rate of earnings growth?
For sure this is a part of it. I mean, this collection of companies, the large cap technology names have driven earnings so far, while the rest of the market has been more stagnant when it comes to year-over-year earnings growth.
And whilst we do see a broadening theme in the year ahead, I think that the technology companies are still going to deliver that double-digit earnings growth that will power the market, power, the US equity
Market. So an allocation to AI, I think, does start there, but it doesn't end there, because the next theme to us really is power. Because to power the data center build-out and to power increasing GPT usage, if we think about power of ChatGPT-5 versus version 3, you're already using a two and a half-fold increase in power. And this is really weighing on a system where power infrastructure is already old.
And so power to US is the next leg of the theme. And what's really interesting when it comes to the positions that you take in the equity market in order to invest in the power value chain is that it's a very different exposure.
You're then looking at utilities, which actually trade at around a 15% discount to the S&P, and therefore you're starting to get more attractive valuations. You'd look at industrials as well as part of that value chain. So, then you're actually adding really nice complementary exposures that are still geared into AI and the development of AI but in a more diversified way.
It's unique. It feels almost ironic that one of the better ways of investing in this cutting-edge technology in the world of tomorrow is in something as basic as utilities.
For sure. But I think that that's the appeal of the sector, really, that it's a sector that hasn't delivered much growth but now I think is poised for a step change in top line and earnings growth and with a valuation opportunity as well.
So that would be my second way of investing. The third is then to go back to the opening words that I say, that we're entering this new phase of AI where we're seeing increasing adoption. At least 10% of the US economy is using AI day to day to generate goods and services. And actually, that number could be even higher.
So now we're seeing AI propagate across all sectors. And within that, there will be companies that can deploy the technology, not just for efficiency. But the really interesting thing will be to observe the companies that are using it to generate incremental revenues and to sustainably grow market share, whatever sector they sit in. So that would be my third bucket.
And what tells me that this is not yet priced is the fact that there is still a really strong dialogue around corporate margins and a big fear that margins will pull back from what have been levels--
Because they've been elevated.
Because they've been elevated. They've climbed. But I actually think that because of this adoption of AI, corporate margins could be more resilient across the board. But that healthy debate is part of what tells me that this part, this third leg, is not yet priced.
I've observed over the last several years that shareholders have been very tolerant of management companies deploying capital into artificial intelligence. Do you think that in 2026, we will see more shareholder demand for descriptions of what the return on those investments have been?
I think no doubt. I mean, look, the large-cap technology companies, their business model is shifting. They're moving from capital light to capital intensive. And companies across the board, I think, are in this phase now where there is real FOMO, Fear of Missing Out, because you don't want to be the number two, number three, number four. You do want that first-mover advantage.
But I think coming with that, there obviously will be accountability for technology players but players across the board, because otherwise, that capital could have gone to share buybacks or dividend growth i.e. shareholder returns.
But for now, for this part of the J-curve, it makes sense to invest. And I think they would be the first three pillars. The fourth would be in private markets. Private markets, we know that companies are staying private for much longer. And that is particularly the case in the technology sector.
So now you're seeing an average tech company would stay private for 14 years. That used to be eight years. And when you look at the 10 largest players in private markets technology, they're worth $1.5 trillion. So there's a huge amount of opportunity there.
There's also risk because there's a lot of cash, dry powder, flying around. So as always in private markets, you do need to be selective. But I would definitely have an inclusion of private when it comes to accessing AI.
So let's broaden the conversation out a little bit beyond just specific to artificial intelligence but the impact that it might be having on equities around the world. So when you think about equity returns in 2026, we've already mentioned potential double-digit returns, the potential for double-digit earnings growth. How much of this is attributed to this megatrend of artificial intelligence?
A decent amount. I've mentioned 20% earnings growth, we think, out of the US large-cap tech players for the year ahead. But I think there is this broadening theme with some of these other sectors. I mean, there's five sectors of the S&P that we like. I've mentioned some of them in technology, utilities, and industrials, but also financials and parts of the health care market.
And so all together, I think that you could be moving from a period driven primarily by tech, where S&P earnings that historically have been around 7% per annum could be more like high single-digit to low double-digit returns, which would be a new era of growth for the equity market and, most importantly, would compensate for some of the valuation.
Said differently, you could still see equity market valuations fall and equities rise 7% to 10% per annum because of the underlying earnings dynamics. So our price target for the S&P specifically over the next 12 months is 7,300. That's just shy of a double-digit return. And it's a similar return around the world actually in the developed market. So yeah, positive outcome.
It's important that we point out how unique that is. This would be the fourth year of double-digit growth for the equity markets, which is certainly something that we don't see very often now. If we are right in that expectation of continued economic activity, which is positive around trend growth, we get positive equity market returns as well, does that bode well for the credit markets?
It does. I mean, many of the dynamics are the same. And broadly, we are talking about large-cap equities here because of the strong underlying balance sheet that they have. But I think all of this, whether it be an equity or credit markets, we're constructive there. We think that the yields are attractive. But all of this is indicative of the fact that I think you are seeing increasingly economic value flow to capital rather than labor, which is good ultimately for owners of risk assets.
Excellent. All right. So, I sense your optimism for the capital markets as well as the economy. Our title of our outlook this year is promise and pressure. I suppose it is this optimism that is the promise component.
Now let's spend a second on the pressure, namely the idea of global fragmentation. I'd be curious to hear what is it that you mean when you talk about fragmentation. Is this just a continuation of some of the trends that we've seen in previous years, or is this something different altogether?
No, I think there's a real sense of change that's coming about at the moment with countries really looking inward. And this really means that they are prioritizing self-sufficiency, security. And there are many issues around national security that I think are in focus, from trade to immigration to energy security, supply chain, and critical components and minerals as well.
And whilst there's certainly been catalysts that have played out through 2025, I don't think it is a brand new theme. I think, actually, you can go back to my previous comment about how increasingly you've seen economic benefit flow to labor-- to capital rather than labor, which has caused some disenfranchisement amongst voting populations that we've seen play out over a number of years. Of course, the COVID pandemic caused supply chain vulnerabilities to come to the fore.
So, security overall is another huge theme for us along with artificial intelligence. And it's not just, again, a US theme from 2025. This is undoubtedly global because the theme of economic nationalism is also prompting a strong fiscal response.
And so when you look to areas like Germany, very strong government direction of capital with the infrastructure bill and defense spending. And this, I think, is going to see, as an example, German GDP be pretty close to US GDP by the time you get to 2027.
That is remarkable. And it does feel like it is permeating beyond just national area but also at the corporate level. JP Morgan, for example, has just launched our trillion and a half dollar security and resiliency investment plan. And so you're seeing it take place in multiple levels. Now, what does that mean from an investment opportunity when you think about security and the investment in security around the world?
I think there's two things. The first thing is the spread of growth. So as governments are playing a firmer hand in the economy and corporates can obviously follow suit and potentially benefit from that, you're seeing growth being spread more evenly around the world. And the example I'd give was, as an example, US and Germany.
The second thing is, again, when you think about the investment opportunities, this speaks to industrials, infrastructure, and real assets. So again, you're seeking out, from fragmentation opportunities, new opportunities of growth where the value, the economic value, is going to accrue to the shareholder. So--
Now, we've seen some of this fragmentation already play out. And when you think about the year that is ending now, this is a year characterized by the flight from the dollar. You've seen the dollar decline. There was concerns about treasuries. And so when you think about what is taking place today, is that a trend that you think will continue as well in terms of dollar decline?
Yes. I mean, the dollar really has been the vehicle through which the market has priced a lot of this fragmentation risk, and even deeper than that, concerns over deficits, over trust in the institution. And that obviously is what's led to what, for many of our euro and sterling-based investors, has been quite a painful leg down in the dollar through the course of this year.
Obviously, elements of that are going to continue. I think that the big overvaluation of the dollar has already played out. The worst is behind us. There could be, over the medium term, still a drip lower in the dollar.
But I think if we look to just 2026 and the cyclical backdrop that we see-- and you alluded to this clay in your walk-up to some extent-- we've got growth that we think in the US is actually going to re-accelerate in the first half of the year. You've got inflation that could stay warm and a Fed that whilst it's cutting, may not cut quite as much as the market thinks that would support interest rate differentials in the favor of the US.
So our thought is more cyclically that the dollar is going to be in a period of consolidation now. But the longer-term themes that we're talking about in this chapter of the outlook, I think, still are in play and still does very much prompt, say, a flight to gold, where I still think there's more upside and, indeed, the diversification angle.
I want to hear more about gold. But let's wait for a moment. The last several years, as the world globalized and as the supply chains became more linear, you saw many market participants simply invested in the United States because you could benefit from growth taking place all around the world by investing in the United States.
Do you think that next year, we will have to be more diversified internationally because of some of this inward move that you've described? To participate in the growth in Germany, will you have to make investments locally? Or do you think you could still do that via supranationals?
I think that the multinationals in each region, I think, are still a really sound place to go because typically, they have the quality balance sheets that we seek and that we spoke about before. But I do think that it's going to be a really sound philosophy to be far more intentional about how you diversify.
A lot of this, again, speaks to clients that have got different funding needs, different currency needs, that I think that the geographic diversification piece is going to be even more important. And we've mentioned Europe a few times. But there are equally very sound opportunities when we look to emerging markets that are emerging from a decade of underperformance.
And even in areas like China, when we think about how their economy is changing, China is going to see more revenues out of technology than it is out of property and construction combined. So some really quite fundamental changes that are arising from governments directing capital and economies responding.
Excellent. So this idea of fragmentation, should it continue, is likely something that will compel us to think differently about the way that we construct portfolios in 2026 and beyond.
Let's talk a moment about inflation, the third of our megatrends. This is also something that might compel us to think differently about the way that we construct portfolios. Steve, it was only a couple of years ago that you couldn't find inflation anywhere throughout the developed world. Now, postpandemic, that experience has been a little different. Talk to us about that evolution of inflation and why it is the concern that it represents in portfolios today.
Yeah, I think a lot of the trends that we've been talking about, whether it's increasing fragmentation, greater fiscal spending, some of these imbalances in markets, the reversal of the globalization trends that was all about efficiency, mean that we're probably in an environment where the floor on inflation is higher and the volatility of inflation is going to be greater.
Now, that has a meaningful impact in the way that we think about portfolios. Because traditionally, in a world where inflation wasn't a concern, a traditional stock-bond portfolio could do a lot of the heavy lifting. You could allocate to stocks for growth. You could allocate to bonds for income and diversification.
But as we've seen over the last couple of years, in a world where inflation becomes a bigger risk, then perhaps bonds aren't going to be able to play that same role in diversifying your portfolio.
Now, talk to me about the level of inflation. So in this moment postpandemic, it reached almost 8%. This was while a lot of market participants thought that inflation would only be transitory. And it has proven to be anything but. Right now, current level of inflation, and what is the expectation for 2026?
Yeah, we think inflation is going to move from-- right now it's in that 2 and 1/2% to 3% range. We think it gradually begins to come down. Our view for 2026 is 2 and 1/4% to 2 and 1/2% here in the US, probably a little bit higher in the front end of the year, a little bit lower in the back half of the year as some of the tariff impacts begin to wane.
Now, one of the things to remember, we often think about inflation. And we think about the risks associated with inflation. Inflation, if it's stable, if it's not too high, is actually a good thing. It contributes to pricing power. It contributes to nominal economic growth, and it contributes to earnings.
And so when you think about that 2 and 1/4% to 2 and 1/2% range we're looking for next year, it's a sweet spot because it supports that growth. But it also gives the Fed cover to continue easing. And we think we're going to see two more cuts in the next year.
So many have characterized inflation as the great confiscation of wealth. As you point out, that's not necessarily the case. But just the same, as you think about building portfolios in 2026, as you think about opportunities which might protect you from some of the impacts of rising prices, where do you begin the conversation?
Yeah, if inflation is the bigger concern, then we think you need to change the playbook a little bit in the way you think about diversifying your portfolio. Specifically, you want to look to things like real assets, gold, and infrastructure as potential ways to hedge against some of those inflation risks.
And importantly, these conversations that we're having now are not just tactical views about the next 6 to 12 months, but rather more strategic conversations in a world where we think inflation will be structurally higher.
Grace, we'd like to talk about other alternatives within the portfolio. You've spent a lot of time talking about gold. You've mentioned it a couple of times in this call as well. Do you think that will continue to represent an important part of it?
I do, Clay. I mean, it's hard to believe, isn't it? After a 50% rally this year that followed already an up year in the prior year, we're looking for another 30% on gold. So that'll take us to around $5,200.
And why is that? Feeding into a lot of the things that Steve said, what's missing from the portfolio if you just have the stock-bond starting point, which is a great starting point but, I think, can be enhanced.
We are looking to lean into uncorrelated returns, or at least less correlated returns, and hedges for many of the issues we've discussed for elevated deficits, for mistrust in the institution, including the Federal Reserve.
And I think gold really satisfies that request, not just for many of our clients, but actually for many of the central banks and significant institutional allocators of capital. So we've seen some of that play out already. That's obviously what's driven the gold price higher. And the supply of gold is so tight that small changes in demand can drive it quite meaningfully.
But consider that when we look around all of the EM central banks, 16 of them still have below a 10% holding in gold. China is now up to 9%. And that compares and contrasts with a European central bank. That would be at 15% to 20%. So whether it be central banks, institutions, or of private clients via an ETF, I think gold can still move considerably higher.
That's interesting because this is not out of concern that you're describing this rally. This feels almost more structural and independent of some of the market moves.
Yes, I think that's absolutely right. And it's a natural way to think. Whilst I like the US equity and economic story, if there's a lot of dollars already in a portfolio, what's a natural thing to bring in to increase diversification? It's gold.
But it doesn't stop there. I think there's other things. We've mentioned infrastructure as well. But I'd also consider hedge funds, and specifically macro and relative value hedge funds. And I think, again, this is a great sort of simple step to enhance the overall portfolio volatility and correlation benefits.
So whether you call them alternative investments, nontraditional investments, it feels like this is the area in which we're looking to expand the toolkit within a portfolio, perhaps real assets, commodities, noncorrelated hedge funds, infrastructure investments. It certainly is a bit of a change in the way that one would build a core and diversified portfolio.
So with that, let's wrap. We expect a year of promise and pressure in 2026, one characterized by positive economic growth, higher equity markets, lower interest rates, and perhaps higher in volatile inflation.
I remind you that the most important strategy when it comes to investing is to have an investment strategy. Please reach out to your JP Morgan advisor and make sure that you have a long-term plan designed to help you achieve the goals that you have for your wealth. Thank you for spending part of your day with us.
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A signature written in gold ink reads, J.P. Morgan.
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Text, Clay Erwin, Global Head of Investment Sales and Trading.
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Hello. Welcome. My name is Clay Erwin. Thank you very much for choosing to share part of your day with us. Together, I'm joined by Grace Peters and Steve Parker, and together we represent the global investment strategy team.
And over the course of the next 30 minutes, we aim to share with you our outlook for 2026, promise and pressure. Here within this document, we share our expectation for capital market returns over the course of 2026. But we also examine the tension that exists between macro forces and capital market returns.
Now, as we do this, it's important to consider the background in which we find ourselves today. Here we are in the twilight of 2025, finishing a year that we characterized as comfortably uncomfortable. And here we experienced a year in which there were shifting geopolitical forces but also equity markets, which reached all-time highs, a declining dollar, and lower interest rates as well.
And our expectation is for 2026 to be quite similar in an environment of shifting macro forces but still record equity levels, a stable dollar, lower interest rates, but persistent inflation. Now, with that is a backdrop, we need to consider how it is that we are going to get there.
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Text, Outlook 2026: Promise and Pressure. Position for the AI revolution. Think fragmentation, not globalization. Prepare for inflation’s structural shift.
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And within our outlook, we examine three primary forces or megatrends that we think will characterize much of 2026, specifically artificial intelligence, global fragmentation, and persistent inflation.
So, Steve, I'd like to bring you into the conversation. Steve Parker, our Co-Head of Global Investment Strategy. Artificial intelligence is part of all conversations. It feels almost ubiquitous. So as we think about artificial intelligence, both in 2025 and 2026, it has had a tangible and real impact on our daily lives. Would you help us understand the impact that it has had on the capital markets?
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Text, Stephen Parker, Co-Head of Global Investment Strategy. 1. Position for the AI Revolution.
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Yeah, Clay, it's hard to overstate what sort of impact that it has had. If you look back to the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, 75% of the gains, 80% of the earnings, and 90% of the capital spending growth of the S&P has been driven by AI-related companies.
If you think about the capital spending and the impact on the economy in the US, in the first half of this year, AI-related spend contributed more to growth than the consumer. I'd argue, you can't have a view on markets without having a view on AI.
All right. So, before we talk more about AI itself, let's talk about some of those numbers. I was shocked the first time that you shared them with me. 80% of the profits. 90% of the spending. How concerned are you that there might be a bubble in the space? And I remind you, a bubble could come from a lot of things. It might be overspending. It could be overleverage, or perhaps just prices that are too high. Perhaps we start with the first one first.
You talked about AI being ubiquitous. I'd say that bubble concerns around AI are also rather ubiquitous. When we think about the path forward for new technology and transformative things like AI, I think it's important to have a framework and to ask ourselves those key questions, and also to look back on history at previous bubbles to help us understand what are the key things that we should be watching.
The first one that you mentioned is overcapacity and the amount of spending. You see new headlines about data centers each and every day. And this is where I think looking back to the bubble is particularly informative.
In the late '90s, there was nearly 40 million miles of fiber that was installed to support the internet. And by mid-2001, about 1% of that was actually being used. It was supply in search of demand. The AI story couldn't be more different. If you look at data center vacancy rates, it's at historic lows, 1 and 1/2%. And for all of the headlines about new construction, 3/4 of the capacity from that new construction is already preleased.
Well, that is materially different. In the year 2000, we did see a tremendous amount of overbuild in anticipation of demand. And we actually see now is the opposite, that we are building and still unable to meet what feels like an insatiable appetite for power, for processing.
Let's talk a little bit about leverage then. What we've seen in recent years is the majority of spend within the art of the artificial intelligence ecosystem has been funded from free cash flow. But now we're actually starting to see some of the market participants issuing debt and debt financing some of these investments. Does that cause concern?
If we think about this bubble framework as a traffic light, if you will, this leverage question is something that's probably starting to flash yellow. As you said, most of the spend up to this point has been funded from earnings and free cash flow from the hyperscalers, who have had tremendous amounts of success and earnings growth. That reduces the risk related to the story.
Recently, the next phase of growth is looking to be increasingly financed by debt, as well as free cash flow and equity. That's something that we need to keep an eye on. But when you look at credit spreads, when you look at the cash flow generation that's still coming from these companies, it's not something that makes us overly concerned at this point.
Well, let's talk a little bit about some of the circularity that we've seen in this investment. There's some cases where you see providers of the AI value chain providing capital as well to the consumers of their product. Does that cause concern?
Yeah, it certainly increases the connectivity of the AI ecosystem. So as you're explaining, what does this mean? Chipmakers, rather than just selling to their customers now, are also financing them or even investing in them.
And I'd say in the short term, this is actually probably a positive. It reinforces the momentum around this build out, supports the continued growth. But as I said, it also increases that connectivity. So inevitably, when we do hit that bump in the road, it means that you should probably expect more volatility from a more connected environment.
You said at the onset that 80% of the equity market returns have been derived in part from artificial intelligence. When you think about the equity market returns, when you think about the prices that you have to pay for these companies now, basically the valuation story, how do you marry the opportunity set with what feels like the elevated valuations of today?
Yeah, I think when you look at valuations, we're seeing more excitement than euphoria. And this is another area where this seems very different from the internet bubble. First and foremost, the absolute level of PE multiples on these AI-related names, while high, are certainly nowhere near the exuberance that we saw in the late '90s.
The other important dynamic that I think is really important is that while these companies have seen tremendous gains in their stock prices, multiples have actually come down in recent years. And that's because earnings growth has surpassed even that capital appreciation. We think that these multiples are justified as long as that growth trajectory can continue. And we're confident that will be the case.
So we spent a lot of time talking about the capital markets. Let's talk a little bit about real life. Let's talk about Main Street. One of the other concerns, if you will, is the disruption to the labor force. I'm sure that there are many people on the call today that have kids that are either entering or are about to enter the labor force. And there are these concerns about, what is the job market going to look like tomorrow? And how different will it be from the previous decade?
Yeah, I think the job market is going to adapt. And the labor force of the future is going to look different from the labor force of today. We think this is likely to happen in two phases, initially with a lot of the focus on automation, greater productivity. Certainly there are going to be industries like customer support, like coding, that are likely to be under pressure.
But at the same time, you have this critical infrastructure, whether it's related to power or cybersecurity, where new jobs are going to be created right away. Longer term, the next phase of this is about growth and imagining the unimaginable.
When you think we were talking earlier about the internet boom and the fact that when we were first looking at this bubble, nobody could have anticipated that today there would be 67 million content creators taking advantage of the internet. And that doesn't even include our own social influencer, financial influencer, Grace Peters, over here.
Let's not bring Grace in quite yet. So, in summary, you recognize that the trend that we've enjoyed for the last couple of years is likely going to continue. Now, ultimately, what that means in terms of capital market returns, what that means for the labor market is something that we're still going to have to wait and see how it plays out.
Grace Peters, our Co-Head of Global Investment Strategy based in London, thank you very much for joining us today. Thrilled to have you. You've spent a lot of time matching investment opportunities with this mega trend. So when you think about how to best capture or participate in some of this growth, where do you start the conversation?
Yeah,
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Text, Grace Peters, Co-Head of Global Investment Strategy.
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so-- I mean, we have to say that we're in a new phase of AI here. We're at the phase where adoption is ramping up. I think the technology is proven. And when that comes to the investment opportunities, we really like to invest across public and private markets, public markets because that's often where the strong balance sheets, the cash flows that you guys have referenced already exist, and private markets because I think many of the AI opportunities, they aren't yet evident to us. They don't necessarily exist.
So we tend to employ a four-point approach. The first still does start with the hyperscalers. So we're talking about the large-cap tech players, the Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft of the world. And that's because the market has consistently underestimated the CapEx that these hyperscalers need to invest to meet demand.
And by extension, the market has consistently underestimated the earnings growth. And we think that earnings growth can continue at around a pace of about 20% per year over the next couple of years. So the short to medium term, I think, still favors these hyperscalers to capture the benefit of cloud and AI infrastructure as well.
If I could get you to spend a second longer on that earnings growth conversation, Steve was talking about how the equity markets are likely to continue to trade up over the course of the year, and that he's not concerned about valuations. Is it because of this disproportionately high rate of earnings growth?
For sure this is a part of it. I mean, this collection of companies, the large cap technology names have driven earnings so far, while the rest of the market has been more stagnant when it comes to year-over-year earnings growth.
And whilst we do see a broadening theme in the year ahead, I think that the technology companies are still going to deliver that double-digit earnings growth that will power the market, power, the US equity Market. So an allocation to AI, I think, does start there, but it doesn't end there, because the next theme to us really is power. Because to power the data center build-out and to power increasing GPT usage, if we think about power of ChatGPT-5 versus version 3, you're already using a two and a half-fold increase in power. And this is really weighing on a system where power infrastructure is already old.
And so power to US is the next leg of the theme. And what's really interesting when it comes to the positions that you take in the equity market in order to invest in the power value chain is that it's a very different exposure.
You're then looking at utilities, which actually trade at around a 15% discount to the S&P, and therefore you're starting to get more attractive valuations. You'd look at industrials as well as part of that value chain. So, then you're actually adding really nice complementary exposures that are still geared into AI and the development of AI but in a more diversified way.
It's unique. It feels almost ironic that one of the better ways of investing in this cutting-edge technology in the world of tomorrow is in something as basic as utilities.
For sure. But I think that that's the appeal of the sector, really, that it's a sector that hasn't delivered much growth but now I think is poised for a step change in top line and earnings growth and with a valuation opportunity as well.
So that would be my second way of investing. The third is then to go back to the opening words that I say, that we're entering this new phase of AI where we're seeing increasing adoption. At least 10% of the US economy is using AI day to day to generate goods and services. And actually, that number could be even higher.
So now we're seeing AI propagate across all sectors. And within that, there will be companies that can deploy the technology, not just for efficiency. But the really interesting thing will be to observe the companies that are using it to generate incremental revenues and to sustainably grow market share, whatever sector they sit in. So that would be my third bucket.
And what tells me that this is not yet priced is the fact that there is still a really strong dialogue around corporate margins and a big fear that margins will pull back from what have been levels--
Because they've been elevated.
Because they've been elevated. They've climbed. But I actually think that because of this adoption of AI, corporate margins could be more resilient across the board. But that healthy debate is part of what tells me that this part, this third leg, is not yet priced.
I've observed over the last several years that shareholders have been very tolerant of management companies deploying capital into artificial intelligence. Do you think that in 2026, we will see more shareholder demand for descriptions of what the return on those investments have been?
I think no doubt. I mean, look, the large-cap technology companies, their business model is shifting. They're moving from capital light to capital intensive. And companies across the board, I think, are in this phase now where there is real FOMO, Fear of Missing Out, because you don't want to be the number two, number three, number four. You do want that first-mover advantage.
But I think coming with that, there obviously will be accountability for technology players but players across the board, because otherwise, that capital could have gone to share buybacks or dividend growth i.e. shareholder returns.
But for now, for this part of the J-curve, it makes sense to invest. And I think they would be the first three pillars. The fourth would be in private markets. Private markets, we know that companies are staying private for much longer. And that is particularly the case in the technology sector.
So now you're seeing an average tech company would stay private for 14 years. That used to be eight years. And when you look at the 10 largest players in private markets technology, they're worth $1.5 trillion. So there's a huge amount of opportunity there.
There's also risk because there's a lot of cash, dry powder, flying around. So as always in private markets, you do need to be selective. But I would definitely have an inclusion of private when it comes to accessing AI.
So let's broaden the conversation out a little bit beyond just specific to artificial intelligence but the impact that it might be having on equities around the world. So when you think about equity returns in 2026, we've already mentioned potential double-digit returns, the potential for double-digit earnings growth. How much of this is attributed to this megatrend of artificial intelligence?
A decent amount. I've mentioned 20% earnings growth, we think, out of the US large-cap tech players for the year ahead. But I think there is this broadening theme with some of these other sectors. I mean, there's five sectors of the S&P that we like. I've mentioned some of them in technology, utilities, and industrials, but also financials and parts of the health care market.
And so all together, I think that you could be moving from a period driven primarily by tech, where S&P earnings that historically have been around 7% per annum could be more like high single-digit to low double-digit returns, which would be a new era of growth for the equity market and, most importantly, would compensate for some of the valuation.
Said differently, you could still see equity market valuations fall and equities rise 7% to 10% per annum because of the underlying earnings dynamics. So our price target for the S&P specifically over the next 12 months is 7,300. That's just shy of a double-digit return. And it's a similar return around the world actually in the developed market. So yeah, positive outcome.
It's important that we point out how unique that is. This would be the fourth year of double-digit growth for the equity markets, which is certainly something that we don't see very often now. If we are right in that expectation of continued economic activity, which is positive around trend growth, we get positive equity market returns as well, does that bode well for the credit markets?
It does. I mean, many of the dynamics are the same. And broadly, we are talking about large-cap equities here because of the strong underlying balance sheet that they have. But I think all of this, whether it be an equity or credit markets, we're constructive there. We think that the yields are attractive. But all of this is indicative of the fact that I think you are seeing increasingly economic value flow to capital rather than labor, which is good ultimately for owners of risk assets.
Excellent. All right. So, I sense your optimism for the capital markets as well as the economy. Our title of our outlook this year is promise and pressure. I suppose it is this optimism that is the promise component.
Now let's spend a second on the pressure, namely the idea of global fragmentation.
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Text, 2. Think Fragmentation, Not Globalization.
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I'd be curious to hear what is it that you mean when you talk about fragmentation. Is this just a continuation of some of the trends that we've seen in previous years, or is this something different altogether?
No, I think there's a real sense of change that's coming about at the moment with countries really looking inward. And this really means that they are prioritizing self-sufficiency, security. And there are many issues around national security that I think are in focus, from trade to immigration to energy security, supply chain, and critical components and minerals as well.
And whilst there's certainly been catalysts that have played out through 2025, I don't think it is a brand new theme. I think, actually, you can go back to my previous comment about how increasingly you've seen economic benefit flow to labor-- to capital rather than labor, which has caused some disenfranchisement amongst voting populations that we've seen play out over a number of years. Of course, the COVID pandemic caused supply chain vulnerabilities to come to the fore.
So, security overall is another huge theme for us along with artificial intelligence. And it's not just, again, a US theme from 2025. This is undoubtedly global because the theme of economic nationalism is also prompting a strong fiscal response.
And so when you look to areas like Germany, very strong government direction of capital with the infrastructure bill and defense spending. And this, I think, is going to see, as an example, German GDP be pretty close to US GDP by the time you get to 2027.
That is remarkable. And it does feel like it is permeating beyond just national area but also at the corporate level. JP Morgan, for example, has just launched our trillion and a half dollar security and resiliency investment plan. And so you're seeing it take place in multiple levels. Now, what does that mean from an investment opportunity when you think about security and the investment in security around the world?
I think there's two things. The first thing is the spread of growth. So as governments are playing a firmer hand in the economy and corporates can obviously follow suit and potentially benefit from that, you're seeing growth being spread more evenly around the world. And the example I'd give was, as an example, US and Germany.
The second thing is, again, when you think about the investment opportunities, this speaks to industrials, infrastructure, and real assets. So again, you're seeking out, from fragmentation opportunities, new opportunities of growth where the value, the economic value, is going to accrue to the shareholder. So--
Now, we've seen some of this fragmentation already play out. And when you think about the year that is ending now, this is a year characterized by the flight from the dollar. You've seen the dollar decline. There was concerns about treasuries. And so when you think about what is taking place today, is that a trend that you think will continue as well in terms of dollar decline?
Yes. I mean, the dollar really has been the vehicle through which the market has priced a lot of this fragmentation risk, and even deeper than that, concerns over deficits, over trust in the institution. And that obviously is what's led to what, for many of our euro and sterling-based investors, has been quite a painful leg down in the dollar through the course of this year.
Obviously, elements of that are going to continue. I think that the big overvaluation of the dollar has already played out. The worst is behind us. There could be, over the medium term, still a drip lower in the dollar.
But I think if we look to just 2026 and the cyclical backdrop that we see-- and you alluded to this clay in your walk-up to some extent-- we've got growth that we think in the US is actually going to re-accelerate in the first half of the year. You've got inflation that could stay warm and a Fed that whilst it's cutting, may not cut quite as much as the market thinks that would support interest rate differentials in the favor of the US.
So our thought is more cyclically that the dollar is going to be in a period of consolidation now. But the longer-term themes that we're talking about in this chapter of the outlook, I think, still are in play and still does very much prompt, say, a flight to gold, where I still think there's more upside and, indeed, the diversification angle.
I want to hear more about gold. But let's wait for a moment. The last several years, as the world globalized and as the supply chains became more linear, you saw many market participants simply invested in the United States because you could benefit from growth taking place all around the world by investing in the United States.
Do you think that next year, we will have to be more diversified internationally because of some of this inward move that you've described? To participate in the growth in Germany, will you have to make investments locally? Or do you think you could still do that via supranationals?
I think that the multinationals in each region, I think, are still a really sound place to go because typically, they have the quality balance sheets that we seek and that we spoke about before. But I do think that it's going to be a really sound philosophy to be far more intentional about how you diversify.
A lot of this, again, speaks to clients that have got different funding needs, different currency needs, that I think that the geographic diversification piece is going to be even more important. And we've mentioned Europe a few times. But there are equally very sound opportunities when we look to emerging markets that are emerging from a decade of underperformance.
And even in areas like China, when we think about how their economy is changing, China is going to see more revenues out of technology than it is out of property and construction combined. So some really quite fundamental changes that are arising from governments directing capital and economies responding.
Excellent. So this idea of fragmentation, should it continue, is likely something that will compel us to think differently about the way that we construct portfolios in 2026 and beyond.
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Text, 3. Prepare for Inflation’s Structural Shift.
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Let's talk a moment about inflation, the third of our megatrends. This is also something that might compel us to think differently about the way that we construct portfolios. Steve, it was only a couple of years ago that you couldn't find inflation anywhere throughout the developed world. Now, postpandemic, that experience has been a little different. Talk to us about that evolution of inflation and why it is the concern that it represents in portfolios today.
Yeah, I think a lot of the trends that we've been talking about, whether it's increasing fragmentation, greater fiscal spending, some of these imbalances in markets, the reversal of the globalization trends that was all about efficiency, mean that we're probably in an environment where the floor on inflation is higher and the volatility of inflation is going to be greater.
Now, that has a meaningful impact in the way that we think about portfolios. Because traditionally, in a world where inflation wasn't a concern, a traditional stock-bond portfolio could do a lot of the heavy lifting. You could allocate to stocks for growth. You could allocate to bonds for income and diversification.
But as we've seen over the last couple of years, in a world where inflation becomes a bigger risk, then perhaps bonds aren't going to be able to play that same role in diversifying your portfolio.
Now, talk to me about the level of inflation. So in this moment postpandemic, it reached almost 8%. This was while a lot of market participants thought that inflation would only be transitory. And it has proven to be anything but. Right now, current level of inflation, and what is the expectation for 2026?
Yeah, we think inflation is going to move from-- right now it's in that 2 and 1/2% to 3% range. We think it gradually begins to come down. Our view for 2026 is 2 and 1/4% to 2 and 1/2% here in the US, probably a little bit higher in the front end of the year, a little bit lower in the back half of the year as some of the tariff impacts begin to wane.
Now, one of the things to remember, we often think about inflation. And we think about the risks associated with inflation. Inflation, if it's stable, if it's not too high, is actually a good thing. It contributes to pricing power. It contributes to nominal economic growth, and it contributes to earnings.
And so when you think about that 2 and 1/4% to 2 and 1/2% range we're looking for next year, it's a sweet spot because it supports that growth. But it also gives the Fed cover to continue easing. And we think we're going to see two more cuts in the next year.
So many have characterized inflation as the great confiscation of wealth. As you point out, that's not necessarily the case. But just the same, as you think about building portfolios in 2026, as you think about opportunities which might protect you from some of the impacts of rising prices, where do you begin the conversation?
Yeah, if inflation is the bigger concern, then we think you need to change the playbook a little bit in the way you think about diversifying your portfolio. Specifically, you want to look to things like real assets, gold, and infrastructure as potential ways to hedge against some of those inflation risks.
And importantly, these conversations that we're having now are not just tactical views about the next 6 to 12 months, but rather more strategic conversations in a world where we think inflation will be structurally higher.
Grace, we'd like to talk about other alternatives within the portfolio. You've spent a lot of time talking about gold. You've mentioned it a couple of times in this call as well. Do you think that will continue to represent an important part of it?
I do, Clay. I mean, it's hard to believe, isn't it? After a 50% rally this year that followed already an up year in the prior year, we're looking for another 30% on gold. So that'll take us to around $5,200.
And why is that? Feeding into a lot of the things that Steve said, what's missing from the portfolio if you just have the stock-bond starting point, which is a great starting point but, I think, can be enhanced.
We are looking to lean into uncorrelated returns, or at least less correlated returns, and hedges for many of the issues we've discussed for elevated deficits, for mistrust in the institution, including the Federal Reserve.
And I think gold really satisfies that request, not just for many of our clients, but actually for many of the central banks and significant institutional allocators of capital. So we've seen some of that play out already. That's obviously what's driven the gold price higher. And the supply of gold is so tight that small changes in demand can drive it quite meaningfully.
But consider that when we look around all of the EM central banks, 16 of them still have below a 10% holding in gold. China is now up to 9%. And that compares and contrasts with a European central bank. That would be at 15% to 20%. So whether it be central banks, institutions, or of private clients via an ETF, I think gold can still move considerably higher.
That's interesting because this is not out of concern that you're describing this rally. This feels almost more structural and independent of some of the market moves.
Yes, I think that's absolutely right. And it's a natural way to think. Whilst I like the US equity and economic story, if there's a lot of dollars already in a portfolio, what's a natural thing to bring in to increase diversification? It's gold.
But it doesn't stop there. I think there's other things. We've mentioned infrastructure as well. But I'd also consider hedge funds, and specifically macro and relative value hedge funds. And I think, again, this is a great sort of simple step to enhance the overall portfolio volatility and correlation benefits.
So whether you call them alternative investments, nontraditional investments, it feels like this is the area in which we're looking to expand the toolkit within a portfolio, perhaps real assets, commodities, noncorrelated hedge funds, infrastructure investments. It certainly is a bit of a change in the way that one would build a core and diversified portfolio.
So with that, let's wrap. We expect a year of promise and pressure in 2026, one characterized by positive economic growth, higher equity markets, lower interest rates, and perhaps higher in volatile inflation.
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人工智能是一場新的工業革命
價值創造方式正在改變
聚焦大型龍頭企業。
發掘人工智能供應鏈中的機會。
識別能夠合理應用企業級人工智能的公司。
確保配置私募市場資產。
貿易體系分崩離析與安全格局轉變
關稅、國防與能源重塑市場
通脹新時代
針對新的通脹格局調整策略
是否想要進一步探討如何增強投資組合的韌性？
重要資訊
本文件僅供一般說明之用，可能告知您JPMorgan Chase & Co.（「摩根大通」）旗下的私人銀行業務提供的若干產品及服務。文中所述產品及服務，以及有關費用、收費及利率均可根據適用的賬戶協議而可能有變，並可視乎不同地域分布而有所不同。所有產品和服務不一定可在所有地區提供。如果您是殘障人士並需取得額外支持以查閱本文件，請聯繫您的摩根大通團隊或向我們發送電郵尋求協助（電郵地址： accessibility.support@jpmorgan.com ）。請參閱所有重要資訊。
一般風險及考慮因素
本文件討論的觀點、策略或產品未必適合所有客戶，可能面臨投資風險。投資者可能損失本金，過往表現並非未來表現的可靠指標。資產配置／多元化不保證錄得盈利或免招損失。本文件所提供的資料不擬作為作出投資決定的唯一依據。投資者務須審慎考慮本文件討論的有關服務、產品、資產類別（例如股票、固定收益、另類投資或大宗商品等）或策略是否適合其個人需要，並須於作出投資決定前考慮與投資服務、產品或策略有關的目標、風險、費用及支出。請與您的摩根大通團隊聯絡以索取這些資料及其他更詳細資訊，當中包括您的目標／情況的討論。
非依賴性
本公司相信，本文件載列的資料均屬可靠；然而，摩根大通不會就本文件的準確性、可靠性或完整性作出保證，或者就使用本文件的全部或部分內容引致的任何損失和損害（無論直接或間接）承擔任何責任。我們不會就本文件的任何計算、圖譜、表格、圖表或評論作出陳述或保證，本文件的計算、圖譜、表格、圖表或評論僅供說明／參考用途。本文件表達的觀點、意見、預測及投資策略，均為本公司按目前市場狀況作出的判斷；如有更改，恕不另行通知。摩根大通概無責任於有關資料更改時更新本文件的資料。本文件表達的觀點、意見、預測及投資策略可能與摩根大通的其他領域、就其他目的或其他內容所表達的觀點不同。本文件不應視為研究報告看待。任何預測的表現和風險僅以引述的模擬例子為基礎，且實際表現及風險將取決於具體情況。前瞻性的陳述不應視為對未來事件的保證或預測。
本文件的所有內容不構成任何對您或對第三方的謹慎責任或與您或與第三方的諮詢關係。本文件的內容不構成摩根大通及／或其代表或僱員的要約、邀約、建議或諮詢（不論財務、會計、法律、稅務或其他方面），不論內容是否按照您的要求提供。摩根大通及其關聯公司與僱員不提供稅務、法律或會計意見。您應在作出任何財務交易前諮詢您的獨立稅務、法律或會計顧問。
關於您的投資及潛在利益衝突
在摩根大通銀行或其任何附屬機構（合稱「摩根大通」）管理客戶投資組合的活動中，每當其有實際或被認為的經濟或其他動機按有利於摩根大通的方式行事時，就可能產生利益衝突。例如，下列情況下可能發生利益衝突（如果您的賬戶允許該等活動）：(1)摩根大通投資於摩根大通銀行或摩根大通投資管理有限公司等附屬機構發行或管理的共同基金、結構性產品、單獨管理賬戶或對沖基金等投資產品時；(2)摩根大通旗下實體從摩根大通證券有限責任公司或摩根大通結算公司等附屬機構獲取交易執行、交易結算等服務時；(3)摩根大通由於為客戶賬戶購買投資產品而收取付款時；或者(4)摩根大通針對就客戶投資組合買入的投資產品所提供的服務（服務包括股東服務、記錄或託管等等）收取付款時。摩根大通與其他客戶的關係或當摩根大通為其自身行事時，也有可能引起其他衝突。
投資策略是從摩根大通及業內第三方資產管理人處挑選的，它們必須經過我們的管理人研究團隊的審批流程。為了實現投資組合的投資目標，我們的投資組合建構團隊從這些策略中挑選那些我們認為最適合我們的資產配置目標和前瞻性觀點的策略。
一般來說，我們優先選擇摩根大通管理的策略。以現金和優質固定收益等策略為例，在遵守適用法律及受制於賬戶具體考慮事項的前提下，我們預計由摩根大通管理的策略佔比較高（事實上可高達百分之百）。
雖然我們的內部管理策略通常高度符合我們的前瞻性觀點，以及我們對同一機構的投資流程、風險和合規理念的熟悉，但是值得注意的是，當內部管理的策略被納入組合時，摩根大通集團收到的整體費用會更高。因此，對於若干投資組合我們提供不包括摩根大通管理的策略的選擇（除現金及流動性產品外） 。
Six Circles基金是一隻由摩根大通管理並於美國註冊成立的共同基金，由第三方擔任分層顧問。儘管被視為內部管理策略，但摩根大通不保留基金管理費或其他基金服務費。
法律實體、品牌及監管資訊
在美國，銀行存款賬戶及相關服務（例如支票、儲蓄及銀行貸款）乃由摩根大通銀行(JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.)提供。摩根大通銀行是美國聯邦存款保險公司的成員。
在美國，投資產品（可能包括銀行管理賬戶及託管）乃由摩根大通銀行(JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.)及其關聯公司（合稱「摩根大通銀行」）作為其一部分信託及委託服務而提供。其他投資產品及服務（例如證券經紀及諮詢賬戶）乃由摩根大通證券(J.P. Morgan Securities LLC)（「摩根大通證券」）提供。摩根大通證券是金融業監管局和證券投資者保護公司的成員。保險產品是透過Chase Insurance Agency, Inc（「CIA」）支付。CIA乃一家持牌保險機構，以Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc.的名稱在佛羅里達州經營業務。摩根大通銀行、摩根大通證券及CIA均為受JPMorgan Chase & Co.共同控制的關聯公司。產品不一定於美國所有州份提供。
在德國，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司(J.P. Morgan SE)發行，其註冊辦事處位於Taunustor 1 (TaunusTurm), 60310 Frankfurt am Main, Germany am Main，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局（Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht，簡稱為「BaFin」）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行（Deutsche Bundesbank）和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。在盧森堡，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司盧森堡分行發行，其註冊辦事處位於European Bank and Business Centre, 6 route de Treves, L-2633, Senningerberg, Luxembourg，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。摩根大通有限責任公司盧森堡分行同時須受盧森堡金融監管委員會（CSSF）監管，註冊編號為R.C.S Luxembourg B255938。在英國，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司倫敦分行發行，其註冊辦事處位於25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。摩根大通有限責任公司倫敦分行同時須受英國金融市場行為監管局以及英國審慎監管局監管。在西班牙，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司Sucursal en España（馬德里分行）分派，其註冊辦事處位於Paseo de la Castellana, 31, 28046 Madrid, Spain，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。摩根大通有限責任公司馬德里分行同時須受西班牙國家證券市場委員會（Comisión Nacional de Valores，簡稱「CNMV」）監管，並已於西班牙銀行行政註冊處以摩根大通有限責任公司分行的名義登記註冊，註冊編號為1567。在意大利，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司米蘭分行分派，其註冊辦事處位於Via Cordusio, n.3, Milan 20123, Italy，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。摩根大通有限責任公司米蘭分行同時須受意大利央行及意大利全國公司和證券交易所監管委員會（Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa，簡稱為「CONSOB」）監管，並已於意大利銀行行政註冊處以摩根大通有限責任公司分行的名義登記註冊，註冊編號為8076，其米蘭商會註冊編號為REA MI 2536325。在荷蘭，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司阿姆斯特丹分行分派，其註冊辦事處位於World Trade Centre, Tower B, Strawinskylaan 1135, 1077 XX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands。摩根大通有限責任公司阿姆斯特丹分行已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。摩根大通有限責任公司阿姆斯特丹分行同時須受荷蘭銀行（DNB）和荷蘭金融市場監管局（AFM）監管，並於荷蘭商會以摩根大通有限責任公司分行的名義註冊登記，其註冊編號為72610220。在丹麥，本文件是由摩根大通有限責任公司哥本哈根分行（即德國摩根大通有限責任公司聯屬公司）分派，其註冊辦事處位於Kalvebod Brygge 39-41, 1560 København V, Denmark，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。摩根大通有限責任公司哥本哈根分行（即德國摩根大通有限責任公司聯屬公司）同時須受丹麥金融監管局（Finanstilsynet）監管，並於丹麥金融監管局以摩根大通有限責任公司分行的名義註冊登記，編號為29010。在瑞典，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司斯德哥爾摩分行分派，其註冊辦事處位於Hamngatan 15, Stockholm, 11147, Sweden，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。摩根大通有限責任公司哥本哈根分行同時須受瑞典金融監管局（Finansinspektionen）監管，並於瑞典金融監管局以摩根大通有限責任公司分行的名義註冊登記。在比利時，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司——布魯塞爾分行分派，其註冊辦事處位於35 Boulevard du Régent, 1000, Brussels, Belgium，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。摩根大通有限責任公司布魯塞爾分行同時須受比利時國家銀行（NBB ）及比利時金融服務及市場管理局（FSMA）監管，並已於比利時國家銀行行政註冊處登記註冊，註冊編號為0715.622.844。在希臘，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司——雅典分行分派，其註冊辦事處位於3 Haritos Street, Athens, 10675, Greece，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管。摩根大通有限責任公司雅典分行分行同時須受希臘銀行監管，並已於希臘銀行行政註冊處以摩根大通有限責任公司分行的名義登記註冊，註冊編號為124。雅典商會註冊號為158683760001；增值稅註冊號為99676577。在法國，本文件由摩根大通有限責任公司巴黎分行分派，其註册辦事處位於14, Place Vendôme 75001 Paris, France，已獲德國聯邦金融監管局 （BaFin）授權，並由 BaFin、德國中央銀行和歐洲中央銀行共同監管，註冊編號為842 422 972，摩根大通有限責任公司巴黎分行亦受法國銀行業監察委員會(Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR))及法國金融市場管理局 (Autorité des Marchés Financiers(AMF)) 監管。在瑞士，本文件由J.P. Morgan (Suisse) S.A. 分派，其註冊辦事處位於rue du Rhône, 35, 1204, Geneva, Switzerland，作為瑞士一家銀行及證券交易商，在瑞士由瑞士金融市場監督管理局（FINMA）授權並受其監管。
就金融工具市場指令 (MIFID II) 和瑞士金融服務法 (FINSA) 而言，本通訊屬廣告性質。除非基於任何適用法律文件中包含的信息，這些文件目前或應在相關司法管轄權區內提供（按照要求），否則投資者不應認購或購買本廣告中提及的任何金融工具。
在香港，本文件由摩根大通銀行香港分行分派，摩根大通銀行香港分行受香港金融管理局及香港證監會監管。在香港，若您提出要求，我們將會在不收取您任何費用的情況下停止使用您的個人資料以作我們的營銷用途。在新加坡，本文件由摩根大通銀行新加坡分行分派。摩根大通銀行新加坡分行受新加坡金融管理局監管。交易及諮詢服務及全權委託投資管理服務由摩根大通銀行香港分行／新加坡分行向您提供（提供服務時會通知您）。銀行及託管服務由摩根大通銀行香港分行／新加坡分行向您提供（提供服務時會通知您） 。本文件的內容未經香港或新加坡或任何其他法律管轄區的任何監管機構審閱。建議您審慎對待本文件。假如您對本文件的內容有任何疑問，請必須尋求獨立的專業人士意見。對於構成《證券及期貨法》及《財務顧問法》項下產品廣告的材料而言，本營銷廣告未經新加坡金融管理局審閱。摩根大通銀行（JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.）是依據美國法律特許成立的全國性銀行組織；作為一家法人實體，其股東責任有限。
關於拉美國家，本文件的分派可能會在特定法律管轄區受到限制。我們可能會向您提供和／或銷售未按照您祖國的證券或其他金融監管法律登記註冊、並非公開發行的證券或其他金融工具。該等證券或工具僅在私下向您提供和／或銷售。我們就該等證券或工具與您進行的任何溝通，包括但不限於交付發售說明書、投資條款協議或其他發行文件，在任何法律管轄區內對之發出銷售或購買任何證券或工具要約或邀約為非法的情況下，我們無意在該等法律管轄區內發出該等要約或邀約。此外，您其後對該等證券或工具的轉讓可能會受到特定監管法例和／或契約限制，且您需全權自行負責確定和遵守該等限制。就本文件提及的任何基金而言，基金的有價證券若未依照相關法律管轄區的法律進行註冊登記，則基金不得在任何拉美國家公開發行。
應收件人要求及為收件人之便，本文件收件人可能已同時獲提供其他語言版本。儘管我們提供其他語言文件，但收件人已再確認有足夠能力閱讀及理解英文，且其他語言文件的使用乃出於收件人的要求以作參考之用。 若英文版本及翻譯版本有任何歧義，包括但不限於釋義、含意或詮釋、概以英文版本爲準。
「摩根大通」是指摩根大通及其全球附屬公司和聯屬公司。「摩根大通私人銀行」是摩根大通從事私人銀行業務的品牌名稱。本文件僅供您個人使用，未經摩根大通的允許不得分發給任何其他人士，且任何其他人士均不得使用，分派或複製本文件的內容供作非個人用途。如您有任何疑問或不欲收取這些通訊或任何其他營銷資料，請與您的摩根大通團隊聯絡。
© 2025年。摩根大通。版權所有。
在澳大利亞，摩根大通銀行(ABN 43 074 112 011/AFS牌照號碼：238367）須受澳大利亞證券及投資委員會以及澳大利亞審慎監管局監管。摩根大通銀行於澳大利亞提供的資料僅供「批發客戶」。就本段的目的而言，「批發客戶」的涵義須按照公司法第2001 (C)第761G條（《公司法》）賦予的定義。如您目前或日後任何時間不再為批發客戶，請立即通知摩根大通。
摩根大通證券是一家在美國特拉華州註冊成立的外國公司（海外公司）(ARBN 109293610)。根據澳大利亞金融服務牌照規定，在澳大利亞從事金融服務的金融服務供應商（如摩根大通證券）須持有澳大利亞金融服務牌照，除非已獲得豁免。根據公司法2001 (C)（《公司法》），摩根大通證券已獲豁免就提供給您的金融服務持有澳大利亞金融服務牌照，且根據美國法律須受美國證券交易委員會、美國金融業監管局及美國商品期貨委員會監管，這些法律與澳大利亞的法律不同。摩根大通證券於澳大利亞提供的資料僅供「批發客戶」。本文件提供的資料不擬作為亦不得直接或間接分派或傳送給澳大利亞任何其他類別人士。就本段目的而言，「批發客戶」的涵義須按照《公司法》第761G條賦予的定義。如您目前或日後任何時間不再為批發客戶，請立即通知摩根大通。
本文件未特別針對澳大利亞投資者而編製。文中：
- 包含的金額可能不是以澳元為計價單位；
- 可能包含未按照澳大利亞法律或慣例編寫的金融信息；
- 可能沒有闡釋與外幣計價投資相關的風險；以及
- 沒有處理澳大利亞的稅務問題。
