Investimentos sustentáveis
Uma nova era para a energia limpa
Para os investidores, isso significa que há oportunidades valiosas com o estímulo governamental e o bom impulso da economia em um futuro renovável.
Para concluir
Acreditamos que a combinação do impulso na economia e do estímulo governamental em prol da energia limpa trará uma surpresa positiva aos investidores, em última instância — com ganhos de dois dígitos para as empresas que forem aptas a contribuir e capitalizar com a cadeia de valor da energia limpa. Desde já, há projeções de que os ganhos globais da energia limpa cresçam 17% de 2019 a 2022, bem acima dos mais relevantes índices como o S&P 500.
Eis como chegamos a essa conclusão — e onde vemos florescer oportunidades de investimentos.
Meu nome é Anastasia Amoroso, Chefe da Cross Asset Thematic Strategy no banco J.P. Morgan.
Sabia que apenas 20% de nós que vivemos em 4300 cidades em todo o mundo respiramos ar limpo dentro dos padrões ambientais? O resto de nós respira ar poluído em algum grau, que está ligado a impactos na saúde humana.
Bom, agora é muito possível levar uma vida moderna e respirar ar mais limpo. Isso porque a energia limpa ou renovável, depois de anos de promoção e alguma decepção, finalmente é uma realidade. E a promessa é reduzir significativamente nossa dependência de combustíveis fósseis poluentes.
Por que agora? Porque muitas forças estão se combinando para tornar realidade a energia limpa. Especificamente, o impulso de governos para a energia limpa e os pools econômicos de tecnologia solar e eólica estão atraindo mais indústrias, consumidores, e corporações na adoção da energia limpa.
Primeiro falando de governos, US$ 54 bilhões de estímulos pós Covid no mundo estão indo para iniciativas ecológicas. Mas agora, além de tudo, mais de 600 bilhões em subsídios ecológicos foram aprovados pela União Europeia. É um incentivo significativo além dos compromissos já existentes para os renováveis.
Por exemplo, a Europa planeja gerar 32% da eletricidade a partir da energia limpa em 2030. A China planeja 35% de renováveis na mesma data. E nos EUA, embora não haja nada oficial, 29 estados têm compromissos com energia renovável até 2030 ou antes. Esse governo deu um importante impulso em energia limpa durante esta década.
Mas talvez mais importante que o impulso do governo são os atrativos econômicos da energia limpa, como eólica e solar. O custo da solar caiu 82% desde 2010 enquanto o custo da energia eólica onshore caiu 39%. Na verdade, a produção elétrica usando renováveis caiu tanto que é mais barato construir capacitores solar e eólico do que uma usina a carvão, e quase tão barato quanto gás natural. Esse é um ponto importante. Não é surpresa que, globalmente, sol e vento devem representar 60% da nova capacidade, de 2021 a 2025. E em 2019, já eram 72%.
Além dos impulsos governamentais, e a economia favorável, é o comprometimento com a sustentabilidade que conduz a adoção da energia limpa. Mais de 200 empresas em todo o mundo, um quarto das empresas da Fortune 500 se comprometeram com energia renovável até 2050. E uma em cada três já avançou 75% dos objetivos.
Uma em cada duas empresas diz que a motivação é o corte de custos. Achamos que o interesse corporativo na adoção de energia limpa pode ser a fonte de surpresa para investidores.
Então, é o seguinte: as forças de políticas governamentais, economia favorável e foco de acionistas em sustentabilidade corporativa se combinam para acelerar em direção às renováveis. Já esse ano, empresas de energia limpa superaram e muito os índices no primeiro semestre de 2020. A julgar do crescimento substancial do ganho anual projetado de 17%. Nos próximos três anos essa superação deve prosseguir.
Claro, há muitos riscos a serem considerados. Mudanças políticas, ou o fato de que os renováveis não são 100% ecológicos. Mas quem está cautelosos com os riscos, pode significar novas oportunidades em mercados públicos e privados. Especificamente companhias com foco em tecnologia eólica e solar que possibilitam a transição e que devem se beneficiar.
Obrigada por se juntar a nós hoje. Gostaríamos de falar mais sobre esse importante assunto. É importante para nós, para a saúde financeira e pessoal.
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Investment Insights Megatrends: Clean Energy.
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Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy
Ms. Rooney:
My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Did you know that only 20% of us living in 4,300 cities around the world today breathe clean air that meets environmental standards? The rest of us are breathing in some level of polluted air, which has long been linked to damaging impacts on human health. Well, now it is increasingly possible to both enjoy modern life and breathe cleaner air. This is because clean or renewable energy, after years of hype and at times disappointment, has finally come of age, and it promises to significantly reduce our reliance on air-polluting fossil fuels.
So why now? Because many forces are finally combining to make clean energy our reality. Specifically, the government push for clean energy and the economics pull of solar and wind technologies are attracting more and more industry, consumer and corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy. First, speaking of government push, $54 billion of post-COVID fiscal stimulus worldwide is being directed towards green initiatives. But now add on top of it more than $600 billion of green stimulus just recently agreed to by the European Union. This is a significant further push on top of already existing government commitments to renewables.
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A bar chart appears, showing "COVID-19 stimulus packages approved to date are leaning "green," with "Global Green Stimulus Adopted" at 54 billion dollars and "Green Stimulus Passed by European Union in July 2020" at just over 600 billion dollars.
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Source: CNBC, July 21, 2020, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, July 23, 2020.
Ms. Rooney:
For example, Europe plans to generate 32% of its electricity from clean energy by 2030. China targets 35% from renewables by the same date. And in the U.S., although there is no official federal target, 29 states have renewable energy commitments by 2030 or before. This government push, it means significant acceleration of clean energy during this decade. But perhaps even more important than the government push is the pull of attractive economics of clean energy like wind and solar. The cost of solar fell 82% from 2010, while the cost of onshore wind energy declined by 39%. In fact, electricity production using these renewables fell so much that it is now cheaper to build new solar and wind capacity than a new coal plant, and almost as cheap as natural gas. That is a true inflection point.
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A line chart appears, labeled "Cost of wind and solar is below coal, converged with natural gas. Dollars per megawatt hour (real 2019.)" The chart shows:
- Solar at just above 350 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Onshore wind at just above 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Offshore wind at just above 200 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Natural gas at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Coal at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020.
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1H 2020 LCOE Data Viewer. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. April 28, 2020. LCOE is a levelized cost of energy, the net present value of the unit-cost of electricity over the lifetime of a generating asset. It is often taken as a proxy of the average price that the generating asset must receive in a market to break even over its lifetime.
Ms. Rooney:
It is not surprising then globally, solar and wind are projected to represent 60% of new capacity as from 2021 to 2025. And in 2019, they already accounted for 72% In addition to the government push and the favorable economic pull, it is the corporate commitment to sustainability that is driving the adoption of clean energy. For example, more than 200 companies globally, or a quarter of the global Fortune 500 companies, have committed to renewable energy by 2050 or sooner. And one in three of them are already 75% towards their goals.
Interestingly, one-in-two companies say that they’re motivated by cost savings. We think it is the corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy that could be the source of upside surprise to investors.
So the bottom line is this, the forces of government policies, favorable economics and shareholder focus on corporate sustainability are combining to accelerate the push towards renewables. Already this year, clean energy companies significantly outperform [RATA 00:03:27] indices in the first half of 2020.
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A bar chart appears, labeled "Government push and favorable economics are combining forces to make clean energy a reality." It shows:
- S&P 500 at 5.78%;
- Nasdaq Computer at 9.96%;
- iShares Global Clean Energy ETF at 16.73%;
- Nasdaq Biotech at 27.23%.
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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of April 20, 2020. For clean energy, used the average 2019-2022 CAGR excluding stocks that have negative EPS or that EPS wasn't otherwise available.
Ms. Rooney:
And judging from the substantial projected annual earnings growth of 17% for the next three years, this streak of outperformance may continue. Of course, there’s still plenty of risk to consider, political headwinds or the fact that renewables are not always 100% green. But for investors who are careful in navigating these risks, this can still mean a wealth of opportunities in both public and private markets. Specifically, companies focusing on various wind and solar technologies, which are enabling this transition to clean energy, they should stand to benefit.
Thank you joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you more on this very important topic of clean energy. It is important to us, both for our financial and personal health.
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Anastasia Amoroso, Head de Estratégia Temática entre Ativos do Private Bank, explica como é cada vez mais possível aproveitar a vida moderna e também respirar ar puro.
A União Europeia está empenhada em se tornar neutra em carbono até 2050. A meta da UE é atingir ao menos 32% de consumo de energia proveniente de fontes renováveis até 2030.2 De fato, estima-se que a transição europeia para renováveis e baterias represente uma oportunidade de investimento de 2,6 trilhões de dólares — com captação eólica rendendo 60% e solar, 28% do total.
Espera-se que a China, maior mercado mundial3 de eletricidade, faça uma transição mais lenta para as fontes renováveis. Mas, em um importante acontecimento*, o país se comprometeu recentemente em atingir os picos de emissões antes de 2030 e se tornar neutro em carbono até 2060 – dez anos após a Europa. A meta anteriormente declarada pela nação para 2030 é de que 20% de seu consumo de eletricidade seja de fontes energéticas não fósseis. As projeções avaliam que a China conseguirá 41% de geração de eletricidade renovável até lá. Espera-se que a China apresente um crescimento 2,5 vezes maior em geração eólica de eletricidade até 2027 e o triplo no aumento da energia solar fotovoltaica (PV, sigla em inglês) até essa mesma data.
Os Estados Unidos seguem a um passo ainda mais lento. Atualmente, os renováveis6 somam 20% do mix de eletricidade e deverá aumentar para 28% até 2030. Nos Estados Unidos, a adoção é liderada pelas políticas e metas de 29 estados. Projeta-se que o crescimento da geração das eletricidades eólica e solar seja, para cada uma, de 1,5 vezes de 2020 a 2030 (veja a figura 1).
Gráfico em linha de junho de 2019, mostrando que se prevê que os Estados Unidos fiquem para trás da União Europeia e da China na adoção de renováveis.
Impulso da economia
O impulso de uma economia cada vez mais favorável também está acelerando uma mudança global para os renováveis. O custo das tecnologias eólica e solar caíram substancialmente devido à expansão da capacidade em larga escala e melhora da tecnologia. Desde 2010, a eletricidade solar fotovoltaica de escala de uso mostrou o mais forte declínio de custo, 82%, ao passo que o custo da energia eólica terrestre decresceu em 39% e o da marítima, caiu 29%7.
O custo-benefício de construir nova capacidade energética com a eletricidade solar fotovoltaica ou eólica já é melhor do que com o carvão. Então, não surpreende que se espere que as energias solar e eólica sejam responsáveis por 60% dos ganhos de capacidade entre 2021 a 2025, e que foram responsáveis por uma estimativa de 72% em 20198. Porém, há mais: Muito brevemente, as novas energias solar e eólica poderão custar menos que a manutenção de muitas das usinas de carvão em operação (veja a Figura 2).
Gráfico em linha mostrando referências globais de LCOE (Custo Nivelado de Energia) para energia solar, eólica marítima e terrestre, gás natural e carvão em 20 de maio de 2020.
Espera-se que a tecnologia de baterias para armazenamento de energia seja fundamental para atender à natureza intermitente da geração renovável, e seu custo também está caindo. O custo de pacotes de baterias diminuiu em 84% desde 20109.
Clientes comerciais
Some-se o foco crescente de investidores em sustentabilidade ao estímulo regulatório/impulso da economia para conduzir a adoção de renováveis — e esperamos que os clientes comerciais tornem-se consumidores significativos de energia limpa.
Os clientes comerciais somam atualmente 37% da demanda10 de eletricidade dos EUA, utilizando eletricidade para operar equipamentos de informática assim como refrigeradores, sistemas de ventilação e aquecimento e eletricidade prediais. Mundialmente, mais de 200 empresas representando 228 Terawhatt-hora (TWh) comprometeram-se com a RE100, iniciativa para ajudar as empresas a atingir 100% de eletricidade renovável até 2050 ou antes. No momento, uma em cada três empresas estão com 75% de suas metas atingidas, uma a cada duas está motivada pela economia de custos11. De forma geral, um quarto das empresas no Fortune Global 500 já declarou publicamente que são neutras em carbono ou estarão, até 2030, usando 100% de energia renovável ou atingindo uma meta de redução que segue critérios científicos12.
Aqui, estão alguns exemplos notáveis de como empresas começaram a atender aos compromissos com energia renovável.
- Os centros de processamento de dados que fazem o backup de muitas de nossas atividades online em nuvem consomem agora mais de 2% da eletricidade mundial e emitem praticamente o mesmo montante de CO2 que a indústria aérea13. Mas empresas como Facebook, Google, Amazon, Microsoft e Apple14 estão migrando para a energia limpa para minimizar suas pegadas de carbono atual e futura. Eles já estão consumindo energia limpa em todo uso de eletricidade que possuem ou comprometeram-se a fazê-lo até 202515.
- Não são apenas as gigantes da tecnologia que estão migrando para a energia limpa. Empresas como Starbucks, Unilever, DHL e Cisco16, entre outras, estão usando 100% de energia renovável17.
- Até mesmo algumas empresas do ramo de petróleo e gás estão se recriando em forma de empreendimentos renováveis. Por exemplo, a norueguesa Equinor18, de petróleo e gás, diz planejar tornar-se a "mais importante em energia eólica marítima globalmente" e pretende ampliar seus ativos renováveis em dez vezes até 202619.
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Perspectivas para os investidores
A mudança para renováveis é anunciada há anos, mas apenas agora as várias forças estão se somando para torná-la real. Os compromissos industriais e corporativos com a energia limpa estão claramente em alta. Nós adiantamos que a velocidade da adoção de energia limpa pode surpreender positivamente investidores e fomentar oportunidades significativas de crescimento.
Observamos quatro principais áreas de oportunidades para investidores nos mercados públicos e privados:
- Utilidades que fornecem energia renovável e podem receber taxa de retorno favorável.
- Empresas de rendimento que compram e fazem concessão de bens renováveis, e em seguida transformam o fluxo de caixa em rendimento de dividendos.
- Tecnologias solar e eólica que levam a melhorias de eficiência e custo e se além beneficiam do surgimento de novas instalações.
- As tecnologias digitais como gerentes de desempenho de ativos para rede elétrica inteligente e a "Internet das coisas" para administrar as cargas de eletricidade e entrega otimizada.
Outras oportunidades destacam-se em créditos de carbono, certificados de energia renovável (REC) e títulos verdes.
Mas uma observação pertinente é que a imagem dos investimentos em renováveis não é imaculada. Além do desafio de encontrar as empresas certas para investir, há riscos gerais tais como:
- A posse chinesa de metais de terras raras, usados em muitos métodos de coleta de energia renovável
- Os ventos de mudança política dos EUA, indo em direção às renováveis ou afastando-se delas
- O fato de que os renováveis não são sempre indubitavelmente ecológicos, como o processo de manufatura de algumas tecnologias de energia limpa produzem dejetos potencialmente danosos
1 "New Energy Outlook 2019". Bloomberg New Energy Finance, junho de 2019.
2 European Commission Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Governance, 4 de dezembro de 2018
3 Na China, projeta-se que o crescimento econômico impulsione o consumo de eletricidade nacional em 76% até 2042 (comparados a meros 0,4% de taxa anual de crescimento na demanda de eletricidade nas economias da OCDE até 2050).
*China busca "neutralidade de carbono até 2060". BBC News, 22/09/20.
4 "13th Renewable Energy Development Five Year Plan", National Energy Administration of China, 10 de dezembro de 2016.
5 "New Energy Outlook 2019". Bloomberg New Energy Finance, junho de 2019.
6 Hidrelétrica, geotérmica, biocombustível, eólicas terrestre e marítima, PV em escalas de uso e pequena.
7 IRENA, https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost
8 Naturalmente, nem todas as aplicações futuras serão em renováveis. Muitas aplicações industriais ainda exigem maior conteúdo energético como o do petróleo, gás e combustíveis fósseis. Assim, esses ainda permanecem como fontes primárias de energia para indústrias como vidro, química pesada e ferro e até mesmo aço, até 2050. As turbinas de gás de ciclo combinado e usinas de pico de gás também terão ainda um papel relevante no fornecimento de apoio e de eletricidade pronta para uso.
9 O custo de armazenamento em bateria era de US$ 186/kWh em 2019. Sua queda é projetada para até US$ 94/kWh até 2024 e para US$ 62/kWh, até 2030. Fonte: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, junho de 2019.
10 EPA, EIA, Electricity data browser, Dezembro, 2017.
11 RE100 Progress and Insights, Dezembro, 2019.
12 "Deed Not Words", Natural Capital Partners, setembro de 2019. As metas adotadas pelas empresas para reduzir suas emissões são consideradas como "seguindo critérios científicos" se estiverem alinhadas com o que a ciência do clima afirma ser necessário para atender às metas do Acordo de Paris — limitar o aquecimento global a bem menos de 2°C acima dos níveis da era pré-industrial e manter os esforços para limitar o aquecimento a 1,5°C.
13 https://e360.yale.edu/features/energy-hogs-can-huge-data-centers-be-made-more-efficient
14 Não são recomendações de investimento. Este material não deve ser entendido como pesquisa de investimento ou relatório de pesquisa de investimento do J.P. Morgan.
15 A Islândia e países nórdicos como a Finlândia e a Suécia surgiram como destinos atrativos para centros de processamento de dados, pois esses países lideram no uso de renováveis para eletricidade e oferecem condições favoráveis como temperaturas mais amenas para refrescar os centros de processamento geradores de calor.
16 Não são recomendações de investimento. Este material não deve ser entendido como pesquisa de investimento ou relatório de pesquisa de investimento do J.P. Morgan.
17 https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/green-power-partnership-national-top-100
18 Não são recomendações de investimento. Este material não deve ser entendido como pesquisa de investimento ou relatório de pesquisa de investimento do J.P. Morgan.
19 https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/wind.html
2 European Commission Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Governance, 4 de dezembro de 2018
3 Na China, projeta-se que o crescimento econômico impulsione o consumo de eletricidade nacional em 76% até 2042 (comparados a meros 0,4% de taxa anual de crescimento na demanda de eletricidade nas economias da OCDE até 2050).
*China busca "neutralidade de carbono até 2060". BBC News, 22/09/20.
4 "13th Renewable Energy Development Five Year Plan", National Energy Administration of China, 10 de dezembro de 2016.
5 "New Energy Outlook 2019". Bloomberg New Energy Finance, junho de 2019.
6 Hidrelétrica, geotérmica, biocombustível, eólicas terrestre e marítima, PV em escalas de uso e pequena.
7 IRENA, https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost
8 Naturalmente, nem todas as aplicações futuras serão em renováveis. Muitas aplicações industriais ainda exigem maior conteúdo energético como o do petróleo, gás e combustíveis fósseis. Assim, esses ainda permanecem como fontes primárias de energia para indústrias como vidro, química pesada e ferro e até mesmo aço, até 2050. As turbinas de gás de ciclo combinado e usinas de pico de gás também terão ainda um papel relevante no fornecimento de apoio e de eletricidade pronta para uso.
9 O custo de armazenamento em bateria era de US$ 186/kWh em 2019. Sua queda é projetada para até US$ 94/kWh até 2024 e para US$ 62/kWh, até 2030. Fonte: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, junho de 2019.
10 EPA, EIA, Electricity data browser, Dezembro, 2017.
11 RE100 Progress and Insights, Dezembro, 2019.
12 "Deed Not Words", Natural Capital Partners, setembro de 2019. As metas adotadas pelas empresas para reduzir suas emissões são consideradas como "seguindo critérios científicos" se estiverem alinhadas com o que a ciência do clima afirma ser necessário para atender às metas do Acordo de Paris — limitar o aquecimento global a bem menos de 2°C acima dos níveis da era pré-industrial e manter os esforços para limitar o aquecimento a 1,5°C.
13 https://e360.yale.edu/features/energy-hogs-can-huge-data-centers-be-made-more-efficient
14 Não são recomendações de investimento. Este material não deve ser entendido como pesquisa de investimento ou relatório de pesquisa de investimento do J.P. Morgan.
15 A Islândia e países nórdicos como a Finlândia e a Suécia surgiram como destinos atrativos para centros de processamento de dados, pois esses países lideram no uso de renováveis para eletricidade e oferecem condições favoráveis como temperaturas mais amenas para refrescar os centros de processamento geradores de calor.
16 Não são recomendações de investimento. Este material não deve ser entendido como pesquisa de investimento ou relatório de pesquisa de investimento do J.P. Morgan.
17 https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/green-power-partnership-national-top-100
18 Não são recomendações de investimento. Este material não deve ser entendido como pesquisa de investimento ou relatório de pesquisa de investimento do J.P. Morgan.
19 https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/wind.html
