What’s in store for 2024: Hear from our Chief Investment Office

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Welcome to the JP Morgan webcast. This is intended for informational purposes only. Opinions expressed herein are those of the speakers and may differ from those of other JP Morgan employees and affiliates. Historical information and outlooks are not guarantees of future results. Any views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all participants and should not be intended as personal investment, financial, or other advice. As a reminder, investment products are not FDIC insured, do not have bank guarantee, and they may lose value. The webcast may now begin.

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J.P. Morgan.

Nancy Rooney, global head of managed solutions for J.P. Morgan Private Bank, sits in front of a textured gray backdrop.

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Thank you for joining me for a conversation with our chief investment officer Richard Madigan as we talk about the year ahead and how we're positioning portfolios in light of lower inflation and a more constructive market environment. Hi, Richard.

How

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Richard sits across from Nancy beneath a J.P. Morgan logo. A table with flowers sits between them.

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are you?

I'm good. Nice to see you.

As well.

I'd like to spend our time together talking about how you're investing client portfolios in today's markets. And this is such an interesting time. But first, I think clients would welcome a little bit of context on how we got here.

Cautiously. Very cautiously.

Indeed. Indeed. 2023 started off with most people forecasting a recession, down markets. The Fed was aggressively hiking rates to fight inflation. But you stayed fully invested. You had a full risk position in your portfolios, which worked out well given equity markets were up 20%. But now we're in a very different place. Growth is holding steady. The Fed is looking like it's on pause, ready to cut, which has created a much more bullish sentiment.

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Richard nods.

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And so as we begin 2024, how do you think about that balance between stock and bonds?

If you don't mind, Nancy, can I start by actually going back and kind of pointing out what I think people got wrong last year. So put your mindset back into January. Nervous. Angry from the year prior. And sentiment was bad and only getting worse. And so that was something that I think took markets away from themselves.

And we were nervous that the Fed had it wrong.

Absolutely. I think if you looked at that moment simply, we just were never as pessimistic as markets became and sentiment became. And I don't mean to be cute in saying this, but that was a function of focusing on data and not headlines. If I look at the macro landscape at that point, which I think was the predominant driver through most of last year, but especially the first half of last year, there was a huge drumbeat for a hard landing. And from my perspective, I just never saw that landing being as hard as people kept building it up to be.

So that's the starting point. I think the other one-- and we get a lot of advantage in terms of the CEOs and the CFOs that we talk to consistently for companies we invest in. If I had to characterize their mindset, it was cautious, rightfully. But it was also constructive on their underlying businesses. So I'm back to data again.

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Text, Stable Hands Prevail. Resilience is everything for long-term investors.

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And so we kind of polled those two and matched them together and said, we should stay where we are in terms of positioning because the negative rhetoric was much more incendiary in headlines than anything we were seeing in the real economy. But to answer your question, if I wasn't as bearish as sentiment was last year, I'm unfortunately not as bullish as sentiment is coming into this year.

But it pivots back to the Fed, if you'll pardon the pun. I just don't think this quick series of rate cuts that people are expecting to kick in come March is deserved based on the data again. And again, that's not a negative. It's just trying to balance out the expectations around that.

Is it fair, though, to infer from that, though, that you're still a better buyer of equities?

Yes,

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Nancy points. Richard nods.

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we are.

OK. So let's just say the Fed is right and they do manage to engineer a soft landing where they've raised rates just enough to curb inflation but not so much to really hurt growth. What are the areas that you're looking at? What should benefit the most in that kind of environment?

So the Goldilocks landing. I will say I guess popping a little bit of the expectations, that outlook is well priced into markets today. And again, not to be cute, I'm saying that as an observation of managing your expectations on returns because I do not expect to see the outsized returns that we saw last year in equity markets and credit markets repeat again this year.

From a portfolio positioning perspective, we're still pro cyclical in our outlook, both in equities and fixed income. And in English, I think that growth stays positive but slows, not that we're falling back into some kind of a hard landing. So with that as the starting point and not wanting to steal Michael or Miles's thunder, at a high level in fixed income that leaves us overweight global credit markets.

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Richard counts on his fingers.

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I'm overweight investment grade credit. We're overweight extended credit and still feel good about the return possibilities and the outlook in broader balance sheets.

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Nancy nods.

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In the equity market, they've hung on to our overweight in technology throughout this. We've done a lot of things within that broad big tech basket. But that's been a core holding for us consistently. What they've done I think with a little bit more were innovation and last year fourth quarter started leaning into sectors that had lagged. So we're looking at pockets of things that from a valuation perspective we think balance out the beta or the risk that we have in tech. So there's a lot of a balancing act going on in terms of how we're thinking about taking risk.

So we're still constructive on equities despite being sort of balanced between stocks and bonds, but really focusing on the parts of the market that both are exhibiting higher growth and maybe some of the parts that have a catch-up trade to them.

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Nancy balances her hands, then gestures upward.

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And as you say, we'll hear shortly from Miles on some of the themes that he's specifically looking at. But what if we're wrong, right, and the Fed has gone too far, which really limits growth. What's in the portfolio to sort of balance this out?

So I say this with a smile. Core bonds. Just given the ride we have gone on--

We're back.

--the last-- they're working. So I feel very good about them as a balance to risk in the portfolio and the yield contribution to total return. So that's the key anchor for me coming into this year. The other one is just back to investment philosophy and the discipline that we manage as a team. We know what we know. We know what we don't. We're risk and math based in trying to put probability distributions around left tail bad events, right tail rallies, but never overreaching for risk.

And I think that's critical for anyone right now in this market. The equity example was a really good example of that. We're not all in. We're balancing out risk, not only in equity markets, but across what we're doing in fixed income. And I guess to come full circle for where we started the conversation, we're staying fully invested.

I like your balance, or your sort of barbell analogy of balance, because I think for so many of our clients that took advantage of the rate environment to sort of lock in higher rates, they now find themselves in a place with elevated levels of cash and will really need to rebalance some of that cash into equities in order to have a portfolio that will grow over the long term.

You've heard me say this for years. And we kid all the time. The simplest decision you can ever make as an investor is separating short-term money and long-term money. Short term can be problematic. Long-term money, if you've set your goals and you know what you're accomplishing, stay invested because every time you are not invested in a market for that long-term horizon, you're putting yourself behind. Last

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Richard points forward.

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year was a great example of that, I'm sorry to say.

Indeed it was. Thank you, Richard. Always nice to see you.

As well. Thanks.

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Richard smiles.

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Text, A deeper dive into fixed income and equities.

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Anjali Paranjpe, U.S. head of managed solutions, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Anjali, Miles, and Michael sit in front of a textured gray backdrop.

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Well, thank you, Miles and Michael, for joining our conversation today. We just had the opportunity to hear from Richard and Nancy on our PBCIO outlook for 2024 and overall portfolio positioning. I want to continue that conversation by discussing our equity and fixed income allocations in a bit more detail.

So starting with equities, Miles, our equity allocation is designed to perform in a variety of market environments. As a part of your process, you're completing your own bottom-up analysis, which includes meeting with company management. Richard spoke to our tech exposure and how we've been leaning into some of those lagging sectors. What are some of those lagging sectors? And how does that ultimately translate into portfolio positioning?

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Miles Wixon, head of equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

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We like financials here. We're getting either good organic growth or compelling buyback and dividend yields. In the US, we're targeting well-capitalized banks with benign credit costs as well as brokers and insurers with growth rates that the market just isn't pricing in.

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Text, Our focus on cyclicals. The financials sector offers organic growth and yield. Targeting well capitalized banks. Parts of the industrials sector provide access to higher earnings.

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We also recently added European insurers, which offer high quality at nine times earnings. With an industrials, we like select companies with self-help stories where expenses can come in below consensus and irrespective of the macro backdrop should lead to higher earnings from operating margins expanding.

So Miles, equity markets have full valuations today, but there are certainly pockets of opportunity. You just walked through some great examples with financials and industrials. Spend a moment on some of the themes that are embedded within health care and tech as well. Those are two sectors that we're overweight across portfolios today.

For GLP-1, similar to cloud a few years ago, the growth potential is obviously very well known, but that doesn't mean it's being accurately quantified.

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Text, Pockets of opportunity. Growth potential within the healthcare sector may be underestimated. Software valuations within the technology sector are attractive.

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Consensus numbers just look too low to us with the market pricing in roughly $100 billion addressable opportunity. We think if new treatments emerge, this could be a $300 billion opportunity, which in the context of a market that is fairly but fully priced, offers a compelling risk-reward opportunity for us.

We're also intrigued by valuation discounts in medtech and some staples that may be overreacting to GLP-1. Within tech, we're finding compelling valuations in software, where earnings growth is still underappreciated. AI specifically gets more complicated. The growth is certainly real. But in contrast to GLP-1, it's a much more competitive landscape. And consensus expectations are quite high, as are valuations. So we're anchoring on a few select companies.

So let's pivot to fixed income. Michael, if you looked at the 10-year Treasury rate, or most yield metrics for that matter, at the start and end of 2023, there was little change. But that ignores the historic volatility that we experienced in rate markets throughout the course of the year. How did you navigate that landscape within client portfolios?

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Michael Gray, head of fixed income, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

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Well, you're right, Anjali. Whether you looked at Treasury, municipal, or credit markets, 2023 really was a year of extreme volatility. In an environment like that, it's especially critical to remain disciplined, grounded in an investment process, and laser focused on managing portfolio risks.

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Text, Navigating volatility. Remain disciplined and focused on managing portfolio risk. Systematically added to high-quality fixed income and targeted credit exposures in 2023. Core duration offers value in 2024.

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As interest rates moved higher in '23 due to persistent inflation and aggressive monetary policy tightening, we continued to systematically add high quality fixed income exposure until we achieved neutral duration positioning versus our benchmarks. We were a bit early with some of those trades. But they served us extremely well in the fourth quarter as rates rallied substantially.

We think core duration will continue to provide value in 2024 in the face of slowing growth and inflation globally. We also targeted specific credit exposures in investment grade and high yield corporate and municipal markets and adjusted them tactically over the course of the year. Our allocation to European investment grade corporates in the Six Circles Funds was a significant contributor to investment performance for our taxable clients and is just one example of our unique ability to identify and access opportunities around the world.

So Michael, within the context of a portfolio, fixed income offers both yield and stability. In addition to adjusting duration, like you did in 2023, you also have full flexibility in how you allocate to core bonds versus global credit markets. So how do you evaluate that broad opportunity set and any trade offs that may come along with that?

Our underlying benchmarks generally are comprised of high quality core fixed income. So for, us extended credit markets tend to be opportunistic levers that we employ more tactically.

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Text, Evaluating opportunity set. Opportunistically allocate to extended credit markets. Evaluate opportunities through both a macroeconomic and credit cycle lens. Maintain targeted extended credit exposure today.

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With that said, exposures like high yield corporates and municipals, emerging markets, and even bank loans can provide compelling yield enhancement and capital appreciation potential when utilized and scaled prudently.

We underwrite extended credit markets through both a macroeconomic and a credit cycle lens with heightened awareness for their volatility and default risk. When they provide attractive risk-adjusted return potential, we incorporate them into our portfolio construction process. And when they don't, we exclude them and focus on higher quality core opportunities. Even with global growth weakening, right now we still continue to see pockets of value in extended credit markets and are maintaining targeted exposures across portfolios.

Thank you, Miles and Michael, for all of your insights shared today. And thank you everyone for joining us.

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