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Investment Strategy

Heard on the Street: 5 things we’ve learned from Corporate America

Corporate America is signaling good things ahead, defying the challenges:

  • What recession? Big “worries” have faded
  • Show me the money: Shareholders are reaping more rewards
  • Capex comeback: Companies have big spending plans
  • Watch your step: Not all are created equal
  • Why it all matters: Earnings power long-term returns

What recession? Big “worries” have faded

Companies are having a much better earnings season than expected. Despite Street estimates for paltry profit growth just a few weeks ago, analysts now see S&P 500 companies growing earnings by more than 5% year-over-year. This marks a third consecutive quarter of growth, putting the angst of prior years in the rearview. When 2024 is all said and done, the year is expected to boost profits by 10%.

This acceleration comes as C-suites seem less and less worried about the macro headwinds. Back in 2022, roughly 90% of S&P 500 companies cited “inflation” in their earnings conference calls. This season, just over half have made mention. With those frustrations fading, firms are also now refocusing on growth and innovation: Callouts of “AI & machine learning” have risen from about 15% of companies to 40%. That’s symbolic of both a better macro backdrop and a broadening belief in the power of transformative technologies.

Companies are less worried about the risks and more focused on growth

% of S&P 500 companies citing key terms in quarterly earnings calls

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of May 9, 2024. Darkest shaded bar reflects Q1 of a given year, on a scale to the lightest shaded bar that reflects Q4 of a given year. Analysis uses Bloomberg Intelligence natural language processing (NLP) of company earnings documents. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Here’s the other thing: All S&P 500 sectors are beating Street estimates set for their profits this quarter. Tech is still the big driver of the momentum—and for good reason—but the Q1 season is sharing the wealth. Looking into 2025, that “catch-up” from other companies should continue. The so-called Magnificent 7 and the “remaining 493” other companies in the S&P 500 are all expected to grow earnings by double digits next year.

Profits are expected to broaden out from here

Earnings per share (EPS) consensus growth estimates by calendar year, %

Source: FactSet. Data as of May 8, 2024. Estimates represent FactSet consensus. “Magnificent 7” stocks refer to Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Show me the money: Shareholders are reaping more rewards

With companies feeling good, they’re indulging in a shopping spree. Firms can do a lot of stuff with their extra cash—they can pay down debt, seek out strategic investments (both inside and outside of their businesses), and return it back into the pockets of shareholders.

That last point has been one of the hidden gems of the Q1 season. More companies are buying back their stocks this quarter, and at a quicker pace. This, in turn, redivides the “profit pie” into fewer slices, offering more value to existing investors. Again, big tech companies are leading the charge: Apple’s $110 billion buyback announcement last week was the largest for any U.S. company ever, and, for context, if that buyback were its own company, it would be larger than the market caps of roughly 420 S&P 500 stocks.

But it’s not only tech. According to our Investment Bank, S&P 500 companies have broadly announced over $350 billion in buybacks so far this year. A number of key Street players think that figure could rise above $900 billion for all of 2024, up more than 10% over 2023.

Firms are returning value in more obvious ways, too. Meta and Alphabet announced their first-ever dividends this year, with five of the Magnificent 7 now paying one.

Capex comeback: More companies have big spending plans

Speaking of spending, more firms are also ramping up capital expenditures (capex, for short). By reinvesting back into their own businesses, that’s a bid for boosting future profit potential.

So far, S&P 500 capex is tracking at an above 7% pace in Q1 versus the prior year, up from just over 4% in Q4. Big AI investments from big tech have been one of the biggest drivers. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are expected to spend roughly $200 billion on capex in the next 12 months.

But again, it’s a broader story. Looking at Business Roundtable’s CEO survey, almost 40% of CEOs expect higher capex over the next six months—that’s the highest since Q4 2022 and notably up from 32% last quarter. The even better news: Optimistic expectations have a good track record of translating to real spending.

More CEOs are planning more spending in the months ahead

Sources: Business Roundtable, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of Q1 2024. Note: “Capex” is short for capital expenditures. Capex expectations are per the Business Roundtable CEO Survey. S&P 500 capex growth refers to the year-over-year change in trailing 12-months S&P 500 capital expenditures. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Watch your step: Not all are created equal

While Q1 earnings growth is strong and casting a wider net of companies, the dispersion in results is still wide.

Eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors are posting profit gains, but that growth ranges from over 35% in utilities to just 3.5% in consumer staples. Health care, energy and materials are meanwhile seeing earnings declines.

Going a level deeper shows that dispersion is likewise evident within sectors, not just between them. For instance, in health care, a profit loss from Bristol Myers has overshadowed strength elsewhere: GLP-1 giants such as Eli Lilly and insurance providers such as UnitedHealth had robust showings. Similarly, while energy has been full of weaker links, equipment & services companies such as Schlumberger and Baker Hughes have posted double-digit profit gains.

That’s an opportunity for alpha.

8 of 11 S&P 500 sectors are posting profit gains in the first quarter

Q1 S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth, year-over-year % change

Source: FactSet. Figures are FactSet blended estimates according to reported and consensus expectations for profits. Data as of May 8, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Why it all matters: Earnings power long-term returns

The S&P 500 is up close to 10% this year, and earnings have been the secret sauce. This is markedly different from the valuation-driven climb of last year. In other words, it’s no longer hope for a better future that’s driving stocks higher, but genuine, fundamental strength.

In the long run, that matters: It’s earnings that have proven to be the predominant driver of returns. Since 2020, earnings have contributed almost 70% of the S&P 500’s 73% total return (versus less than 15% from the climb in valuations).

Earnings have driven roughly 70% of stock returns since 2020

Contribution to S&P 500 Index total return, %

Source: FactSet. Data as of May 8, 2024. YTD = year-to-date. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The takeaway: Earnings season has offered a litmus test of where we stand. Judging so far, the vote is one of confidence. Headlines can feel hard to navigate, with a daily push-pull debate between growth and inflation—and not to mention a Federal Reserve that’s in data-dependent mode. But the resiliency in the face of those challenges is notable. That brings with it opportunity.

Your J.P. Morgan team is here to discuss what this means for you.

All market and economic data as of May 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.
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Index definitions
:

The S&P 500 index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

The Magnificent 7 Index is an equal-dollar weighted equity benchmark consisting of a fixed basket of 7 widely traded companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) classified in the United States and representing the Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors as defined by Bloomberg Industry Classification System (BICS).

The S&P Midcap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market. 

All market and economic data as of May 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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