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No, private equity has not lost its way

Private equity (PE) investing has long been based on a premise.

Private equity would outperform public markets, catalyzed by operational improvement that spurs better profitability and multiple expansion, as well as a lift from leverage and an “illiquidity premium” to compensate you for locking up your capital.

That premise has come under attack over the past three years. The industry sits on record amounts of dry powder (uninvested capital waiting to be deployed) as deal flow has been sluggish. Distributions to investors are below historical averages. Higher rates have made leverage less appealing. And the notion of PE’s outperformance has been challenged by a roaring stock market.

We believe fears that PE has lost its way are overstated. But the industry is changing. A higher-for-longer interest rate environment has made operational improvements a priority for driving returns. Changing investment structures—from evergreen vehicles to a growing secondary market—are changing the liquidity landscape and lowering the “illiquidity premium.”

And most of all, an “innovation premium” is emerging as a groundbreaking disruptor- a new generation of highly innovative companies — stay private for longer (and grow ever larger), creating meaningful value in industries that may not be accessible in public markets.

Together, these forces have created a bifurcation between the haves and the have-nots—the managers who can access these opportunities and distribute returns to investors, and those less able.

PE’s value proposition is not dead, but it is evolving. For investors, these shifts mean that a discerning, globally diversified approach is more important than ever. As private equity evolves, balancing core PE exposure with secondaries and considering both drawdown and evergreen vehicles can help capture the broadening opportunity set—while careful manager selection remains critical in a competitive, higher-rate environment.

Let’s examine the new industry playbook.

Capitalizing on the “innovation premium”

The “innovation premium” refers to the additional value and growth potential generated by highly innovative private companies that remain private for longer, scale rapidly, and drive transformative change across industries. The “innovation premium” is top of mind because of a growing amount of value being created in private markets across sectors.

A meaningful opportunity set emerges in global private markets

Percent of firms with annual revenue greater than $100 million

Stacked bar chart comparing the proportion of private versus public firms with annual revenue greater than $100 million across North America, Europe, and APAC. The chart shows that in all regions, the vast majority of large firms are private.
Source: EQT. Data as of May, 2025.

Historically, private markets have exhibited strong fundamentals: private companies have delivered average annual earnings before interest, taxes and amortization growth of approximately 11.5% over the past decade,1 outpacing both the Russell 2000 and S&P 500.2 We believe this superior earnings growth will continue, as private markets are increasingly the breeding ground where we see transformative investment themes emerging, such as:

  • Artificial intelligence—As we’ve written previously, “services as software” could generate opportunities worth $3 trillion to $5 trillion by the end of the decade.3 We believe private markets will dominate this phase as roughly 95% of all software companies are private. Tech companies are also creating meaningful value prior to going public – with firms achieving five times the sales at IPO compared to those during the internet cycle of the late 1990s.
  • Healthcare—private companies play a vital role in revolutionizing the healthcare industry – from backing precision medicine (novel treatments customized to an individual patient’s genetic makeup or medical history) and advanced diagnostics to pioneering the digitization of healthcare systems.
  • Security—Encompassing energy security, supply chain resilience (logistics automation, near-shoring services and mission-critical manufacturing components ) and defense tech /cybersecurity.

Tech companies are now larger—and older—when they go public

Median annual sales and median age of tech companies at IPO

Dual-axis line chart showing the median sales (in millions of dollars) and median age (in years) of technology companies at IPO from 1980 to 2025. The chart illustrates that both the sales and age of tech companies at IPO have generally increased over time.
Source: “Initial Public Offerings: Technology Stock IPOs,” Jay R. Ritter, University of Florida. Data as of July 2025.

Moreover, non-U.S. private equity opportunities are expanding rapidly across Europe and Asia as their innovation ecosystems accelerate. As regional growth drivers continue to diverge, we believe it is critical for investors to diversify beyond the United States.

In summary, we believe this superior earnings growth may persist, as private markets continue to serve as the platform for transformative investment themes and innovation-driven value creation.

Let’s double click into Europe.

Case study: European PE and the “innovation premium”

European public markets have meaningfully underperformed the United States for well over a decade. But the opposite is the case in European private markets. European PE funds have outperformed their U.S. peers and have outperformed public markets (MSCI Europe) by approximately 6.8% annualized over the past decade.4

 

Over the past 10 years, European PE funds have outperformed their U.S. peers

Horizon IRRs for European PE funds vs. U.S. PE funds

Bar chart comparing the horizon internal rates of return (IRRs) for private equity funds in North America and Europe over 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year periods. The chart shows that European funds have outperformed North American funds across all time horizons.

Source: Preqin. Data as of October 2025.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Looking ahead, we expect these factors to drive strong European PE returns:

  • Complexity: Europe is regionally fragmented, operationally complex, and has a large set of middle-market companies that are ripe for consolidation. That suggests meaningful opportunity for PE managers to add value.
  • Less competition: Europe produces similar PE deal volume as the United States, on average, but fewer European PE managers, leading to ample opportunity to deploy capital effectively.5
  • Exposure to compelling long-term themes not accessible in public markets: About one-third of 2024 European PE deals were in tech and telecom (versus approximately 10% of the MSCI Europe).6

A bifurcation between the haves and the have nots

Going forward, we expect a more discerning PE market in which investors increasingly commit capital to fewer, more established managers with proven records of value creation. In an environment of moderating economic growth—and lower but still elevated interest rates— PE managers that can improve efficiency in complex industries by harnessing innovation to expand profit margins and drive revenue growth will likely outperform their peers.

Already, investors are starting to concentrate their commitments with managers demonstrating strong operational capabilities and deep sector expertise, challenging less established, newer managers. While capital is abundant, true operational know-how is scarce. For PE managers that have it, the opportunity set is expanding. For those that don’t, the challenges are real and rising.

Private equity is not shrinking but stratifying, and this will likely deepen as investors demand that PE firms excel among an increasingly complex set of opportunities.

A changing liquidity landscape

The liquidity landscape is shifting in private equity with the rise of evergreen vehicles—open-ended PE funds that, unlike more traditional drawdown vehicles, continuously accept fresh capital and make new investments— and the maturation of secondary market. As private markets evolve, we expect asset owners will find more opportunities for liquidity beyond the traditional avenues of IPOs and strategic M&A. For investors, this means adding exposure across both evergreen and drawdown vehicles, as well as complementing core private equity exposure with secondaries:

  • Evergreen vehicles: Evergreen fund structures will likely alter the private market landscape. For our platform, evergreen structures as a share of annual capital raising has grown 3x since 20207 . Currently, evergreen funds are roughly 5% of the overall private markets, and some estimate that share could grow to 20% in the next decade.8
  • Maturing secondary market: Secondary market transactions are on-track to surpass $200 billion by the end of 2025, a record-high over the past five years, driven by both sponsor-led and limited partner-led transactions.9 Sponsors utilized continuation vehicles for liquidity and asset retention, while institutions such as pensions and endowments used the market to rebalance portfolios. Once considered a niche part of the market, they’ve gone mainstream, and are increasingly important for investors looking to capture the full value of private markets.

The liquidity landscape is evolving, requiring both investors and private equity managers to adapt and navigate emerging challenges and opportunities.

Risks to consider

We are keeping a close eye on dealmaking activity and distributions, which have been below average over the past few years. We are seeing green shoots in dealmaking activity as global M&A & IPO volumes pick up, which has led to an initial recovery in PE distributions. We expect dealmaking activity to accelerate into 2026 as global financial conditions ease and deal bid-ask spreads continue to narrow, but it is something we are monitoring closely.

Another risk: more capital chasing a limited number of high-quality deals would put pressure on access and manager selection. Not every manager will be able to deliver strong results.

Conclusion: Investor implications

Private equity is evolving and the innovation premium is top of mind. Within core PE, a globally diversified approach is key. As the liquidity landscape matures, we believe it is critical to complement core PE exposure with secondaries and to balance drawdown funds with evergreen vehicles where appropriate.

Managers with the ability to make operational improvements will lead in a competitive, higher- rate environment. Manager selection is more important than ever. The opportunity set is broadening, but so is the range of outcomes.

We can help

Your J.P. Morgan team can support your consideration of whether private equity should be a larger part of your portfolio, especially if you’re seeking exposure to innovation and long-term growth.

  • MSCI, latest as of November 2025. Global buyout universe utilized as sample.
  • Average annual EBITDA growth in the same period: Russell 2000 (8.7%), S&P 500 (7.0%).
  • Sitara Sundar, “A new wave of AI-led disruption: The private market opportunity,” Ideas & Insights, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
  • MSCI, Burgiss, latest as of November 2025. Outperformance measured by ‘Direct Alpha’
  • Bain Global Private Equity 2025 Annual Report, JP Morgan Private Bank, 2025.
  • Ernst and Young, Bloomberg, June 2025.
  • JP Morgan Private Bank, November 2025. Based on internal client data.
  • “2025 Market Overview”, Hamilton Lane, March 2025.
  • “H1 2025 Global Secondary Market Review”, Jefferies, July 2025.

KEY RISKS

Investment in alternative investment strategies is speculative, often involves a greater degree of risk than traditional investments including limited liquidity and limited transparency, among other factors and should only be considered by sophisticated investors with the financial capability to accept the loss of all or part of the assets devoted to such strategies.​

Private credit securities may be illiquid, present significant risks, and may be sold or redeemed at more or less than the original amount invested. There may be a heightened risk that private credit issuers and counterparties will not make payments on securities, repurchase agreements or other investments. Such defaults could result in losses to the strategy. In addition, the credit quality of securities held by the strategy may be lowered if an issuer’s financial condition changes. Lower credit quality may lead to greater volatility in the price of a security and in shares of the strategy. Lower credit quality also may affect liquidity and make it difficult for the strategy to sell the security. Private credit securities may be rated in the lowest investment grade category or not rated. Such securities are considered to have speculative characteristics similar to high yield securities, and issuers of such securities are more vulnerable to changes in economic conditions than issuers of higher-grade securities.​

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PE’s value proposition is not dead but it is evolving. Here’s why we see a promising future—if you take a discerning approach.
Published Nov 18, 2025

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