Geopolitical market impacts and investment perspectives for 2026

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Hi, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I'm Monica DiCenso. I run the Global Investment Opportunities Group for JP Morgan's Private Bank. I'm thrilled to be here today to moderate a discussion about the dynamic geopolitical backdrop and related investment implications as we head into 2026. Joining me here today, we have Dr. David Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management's Chief Global Strategist, and Derek Chollet, head of JP Morgan Chase Center for Geopolitics. Thank you both for joining.

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There is no shortage of headlines when it comes to either geopolitics or markets in general. And so I thought maybe to frame the discussion, we start with a quick state of the union from both of you. I'd love to hear, Dr. Kelly, what you're seeing in markets, particularly as we head into a new year following a really strong market. And Derek, I'd love to hear from you. What are the hot areas you're watching right now? And then, we're going to jump into questions we've been getting from clients.

Yeah, well, thank you, Monica, for having me on this and very, very pleased to be on this with Derek also. So I think when we think a little bit about where we are going into 2026, it seems to me that there's let's go for the economy first and then markets. But we've really got a fine balance going on in the economy. We've got a clear tailwind coming from all this AI investment. And that is affecting, obviously, data centers and electricity and so forth. But really, there are a lot of industries that are being helped by this surge in technology spending and AI interest. And we're also getting a benefit from a strong stock market, which is generating a lot of wealth gains for upper income households. And those things are pushing the economy forward.

On the other side, we've had, I guess I would characterize them, the policies of economic nationalism, surge in tariff rates relative to anything we've seen in recent decades, and also a big reversal in terms of net immigration, restricting the growth in the labor force. And those two things have been fighting each other all year. But the net of it is that the economy is still avoiding recession. It does seem to be slowing down in the fourth quarter of this year. But we actually think it's going to pick up early next year because of income tax refunds. Then, it'll slow down again.

But two years ago, I remember somebody asked me about my forecast for 2024. And my forecast was 2-0-2-4, which is 2% growth, 0 recessions, inflation coming down to 2%, and unemployment sticking at about 4%. And the funny thing is, by the end of 2026, I think if you leave all shocks aside, I think we could still be back at a 2-0-2-4 economy. I think we can avoid recession. I think growth will slow to perhaps a little bit below 2% by the second half of next year. I think you will see inflation come down once the tariff effects have fully passed through. And I think the unemployment rate will be held down by the lack of labor supply.

For markets, it's been another a third consecutive spectacular year for US equities and for mega-cap growth equities in particular. This has been very good in terms of building wealth for American investors. But it also has left us with a lot of distortions in markets. Mega cap US equities look very expensive relative to the rest of the world. And also, it means that individual investors tend to be overweight that sector because they sort of passively allowed that to occur. People are also underweight the rest of the world. I think they're underweight fixed income relative to equities. I think there's a lot of growth in the potential for alternatives that people aren't perhaps fully taking advantage of.

So I think this is still-- even though we go into 2026, there are a lot of questions, a lot of things that could go wrong, go right. And I'm sure we'll talk about that. I think people should think about exactly how they're positioned right now. Are they positioned appropriately for a slow-growing economy with a fair amount of risk both in the economy and in markets at this point?

Great. That's helpful. And I do have a lot of questions. But I want to hear from Derek. And then, we'll jump in--

Well, thanks. Thanks, Monica. And thanks, David, for having me. I'm Derek Chollet. And I lead the Center for Geopolitics here at JPMorgan Chase. And we're a new function within the firm to help clients, like yourselves, navigate what is unquestionably one of the most uncertain and turbulent geopolitical periods we've lived through in our lifetimes. There's a lot going on in 2025 that I think will continue on into 2026. And I think three of the themes from 2025 will very much define the geopolitical landscape of 2026. The first theme is fierce competition. The second is war and hopefully peace. And the third is deep uncertainty.

So I'll start with the competition. And the competition is really framed by the US-China relationship. And we have seen in the course of 2025 a lot of ups and downs in the US-China relationship, really starting from earlier this year and Liberation Day and the imposition of tariffs. But the trade war between the United States and China, it's notable that in all of the discussion of tariffs and trade around the world, the only war that's actually broken out where both sides are taking shots at one another have been the US and China. China is the only country that responded in a meaningful way to the US imposition of tariffs.

And what we've seen at the conclusion of 2025-- and we're entering into 2026 this way-- is a detente, a sort of unsteady peace between the US and China when it comes to trade. And importantly, in 2026, we have a roadmap for the relationship that, I think, at least for some time, will provide some degree of stability, of some ballast in this relationship. So President Trump will be visiting China in the spring, a historic visit for. The first time in several years, a US president has visited China. And then, President Xi will come here to the United States around the G20 summit. So that will provide some guardrails on this relationship and an incentive for both sides to keep this tariff and trade back and forth, to keep a lid on it. But nevertheless, I do think that just as 2025 and 2026 and, quite frankly, the next decade will be defined by the contours of the US-China competition.

The second issue that very much was a theme of 2025 and will continue on to 2026 is war and hopefully peace. This year has been a dramatic one, obviously, between Russia and Ukraine, where we've seen an intensification of the military campaign between Russia and Ukraine and a lot of major attacks by Russia against Ukraine, but Ukraine returning fire. We've also seen a vigorous effort at peace led by the United States. And just as we've ended the year, we've seen more activity diplomatically between the United States, Europe, Ukrainians, and the Russians than we saw in the previous 10 months of the year.

Now, it's not clear where that is going yet. I do forecast that we are in the slow endgame of the Ukrainian conflict. There's a variety of reasons why I think we are in that place, happy to get into that in the question period. But what I think the best thing we have to hope for is going to be an unsteady peace in Ukraine, a resolution in Ukraine that looks something like the resolution of the Korean War over 70 years ago, where it was not a peace treaty that ended that war. It was a truce. And some of the key ingredients that has made South Korea such a success over the last seven decades, I think we need to see that happen in Ukraine in order to have stability there and also to have the opportunity for investors.

And then similarly in the Middle East, of course over the summer, we saw the first major war between the Israelis and the Iranians break out. It seems like a distant memory today. But I think it's important for everyone to remember that that war is not yet over. We are in a truce period of that. And I do expect that in the early months of 2026, we could see a rekindling of that direct conflict between the Israelis and the Iranians because they haven't agreed to anything regards to one another and when it comes to Iran's nuclear program or support for terrorist groups around the region. And Israel hasn't agreed to stop taking action as necessary against Iran.

And then finally, uncertainty. And beyond the broader geopolitical trends out there, whether it's technological changes or the resurgence of great power competition, there's no question that a lot of the uncertainty as perceived from around the world is coming from the United States. Now, some of that uncertainty is purposeful. And I think by design, a sense that the system has needed to be disrupted in fundamental ways to change things for the better.

Some of it comes from dysfunction of the US political system in the sense of we had a government shutdown that took up six weeks or so of the fall. And we have another potential shutdown, at least partial shutdown, coming at the end of January. And then also, a lot of uncertainty about where the US is actually going on trade, what's happening in the Western hemisphere regarding the use of military force there and where that may lead, commitment to the US has to the NATO alliance and other partnerships around the world.

That uncertainty is going to probably persist through 2026. And that's going to lead to certain behaviors by countries around the world-- partners and adversaries alike-- to try to hedge and work around the United States when necessary because they're not sure where things are going to shake out here. Because we've got an election year. It's a midterm election which is going to only captivate more and more of our attention in bandwidth as next November approaches. And similarly, we've got a lot of policy uncertainty that still remains out there as President Trump's second year of his second term commences.

Maybe that's a good place to start because we've had another amazing year in markets in spite of all this noise. And you mentioned uncertainty. We have this great chart that shows there's always reasons to be uncertain. Yet, the market keeps marching higher. So I'm curious when you think about going to next year, shutdown, I get that question a lot. Clients are very nervous. OK. I might reposition my portfolio only to walk into another shutdown.

So can you put any sort of odds around do you think this happens again in Q1? Do we need to worry about that? And then, Dr. Kelly, I'm curious from your perspective, talk about an economy slowing down with the potential another government shutdown, how do you get comfortable with data? What are you looking at if we're not getting accurate information from the government? And how do you get comfortable that we're not in a recession?

Well, Derek, if you want to--

Yeah, so first, I think forecasting the shutdown, I think just based on recent experience, we have to expect that we will have a shutdown. I mean, the incentives that both sides have-- Republicans and Democrats-- to not resolve their differences early next year, I think, are quite strong. That said--

--it's an election year, you think it will take--

In many ways, because in an election year, they're both looking for issues to use against one another in an election. However, it won't be an entire government shutdown like we had in the fall because some of the appropriations bills were passed as part of the deal to end that shutdown. So it would only be a partial shutdown. So it would have less of an impact.

And it's pretty interesting. And David would be the expert on this. The last shutdown didn't have a huge market impact. I mean, it was-- I mean, it had some blips here. And it created a lot of uncertainty, particularly in the airline industry and elsewhere. But it didn't have that kind of catastrophic effect. I think also important to watch, though-- it's not related to the shutdown. But it's something that's going to happen here is the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which will probably come down at the end of this year or early next.

If it comes down the way that conventional wisdom seems to suggest, which there will be a partial, if not an entire rollback of the president's authority that he asserted earlier this year to impose these tariffs, again he has other mechanisms. He has other ways that he can impose tariffs. And I believe he will continue to do so. But it will create a lot of churn in the system. We'll see lawsuits flying around about who gets-- who's owed what money back? And so that, I think, that's something that clients will have to watch closely.

I think people are worried, what information do you look at. How do you get comfortable that there's not a recession imminent?

Well, we do have a lot of data on the US economy coming from private sector sources. And one of the things that helps us here is we actually run a lot of indicator models. So we try and forecast things like nonfarm payrolls.

But in order to forecast non-farm payrolls, we put in indicators that come out things like the ISM surveys for services and manufacturing, the weekly unemployment claims. Now, we didn't have federal government data, but we could add them up at the state level.

You've got-- and there actually is-- because the US economy is big and everybody's interested in it, there are lots of pieces which will allow us to build the mosaic. We can put together the jigsaw puzzle. There are a few pieces missing, but we can still see the overall picture.

And so yeah, I think we've been reasonably comfortable about the progress the economy is making. We know it's slowing down in the fourth quarter, and we think there is a big question about what's going on in terms-- is AI really replacing workers or not?

But there is clearly softness in the labor market. But overall, it looks like it's a soft patch in the fourth quarter. The third quarter is going to be reported by the end of this month. And it should be reported as a strong positive quarter.

I think the fourth quarter could be much closer to 1% or 0%. But then early next year, because of the passage of OBVA that was deliberately designed to all these tax cuts, the new tax cuts were effective as of January 1, 2025, but they didn't change-- they were only passed into law in July, and the income tax withholding forms were not changed. So that means that there's a boatload of income tax refunds which are going to kick in the first few months of 2026, and that should lift consumer spending.

That people might not appreciate.

Well, yeah, I don't think people appreciate that right now because, of course, who wants to do their taxes before you have to do your taxes?

Not me.

But when they do their taxes, about 60% of income tax refunds are paid out in the first 90 days of the year. 90%--

Will those get paid if the government shut down? Because you're saying partial shutdown. Yes?

Yeah, I think so. Yeah, no, I think so. And yeah. The economists have always distinguished between a government shutdown, which is an annoyance and a debt default, which would be catastrophic. And those are two very separate things. So I think the economy can survive. It has done so far. But it's not a fast-growing economy.

The point about the debt default, I think people tend to jump there. We don't think that's obviously likely or realistic. But you have seen the dollar weaken. And you mentioned at the beginning thinking about diversifying portfolios a little more outside the US.

So maybe talk a little bit about that. Because I think clients want to go there. They still like the AI trend, but they're a little worried about where they go. So what would be the one or two areas you'd look at I think that dovetails nicely into some of the other geopolitical?

I think the first thing is when I look at valuations in the United States versus Europe, or the UK, or Japan, or emerging markets, it's the old Sesame Street game. One of these diamonds is not like the others.

The US is so much more expensive than all these other markets that honestly, the big call is, do you have enough overseas? Don't tell me where you've got it overseas. Do you have enough overseas?

And I think the truth is that for many years, people have not put money into international investments. And then of course, as US investments have outperformed, they become more and more overweight. So we've seen this portfolio drift.

So I wouldn't lose too much sleep about where I had it overseas. I mean, I think it's more about companies, and picking the corporate winners here, and even the private equity winners rather than countries. But I think the big issue is people should resolve to invest more overseas to defend themselves if something goes wrong here and the dollar falls, but also to take advantage of better valuations.

I think one place people tend to go is Europe tends to be an easy place for many US investors develop market. There was obviously a big trade around increased defense spending. That sort of played out. So I'm curious, as you think about your comments about Russia and Ukraine, and just Europe in general, and the stability of that market. How do you think?

Look, on the one hand, Europe is facing an existential threat with Russia's behavior in its neighborhood. I mean, just recently, President Putin said, if Europe wants a war, they'll get one. And we're ready to fight it. So I think that threat is going to persist for some time, which then to me leads one to think that the defense spending that we're seeing in Europe, which is meaningful, will sustain.

I mean, I think there's been a lot of talk over many years about Europe needing to spend more on defense. I think it's real this time, I think there's a political incentive behind that. So I think that's one area that's very attractive for investors. I also think that an area that is often, and even this year, characterized more by uncertainty and conflict, the Middle East, is going to be very attractive.

Because I think the Gulf and the dynamism in the global economy, in many ways, is being generated out of the Gulf right now. The spending in Saudi and UAE, in particularly on energy and tech, clean energy and tech, I think that's a huge opportunity as well that because of the headlines around the Middle East, that can often be-- folks can be understandably spooked by that.

And I do think we need to remain vigilant of the potential for conflict there. But I do see that as a larger opportunity. Just one last point on this de-dollarization issue. Because I think it's sort of a leading indicator of a broader trend that we'll be looking at very closely in the coming year and beyond, which is this, for lack of a better phrase, the replumbing of the international system that we are seeing take place.

And it's not just a function of the last year. It's something that's been underway slowly over the last decade or so. But as the US is changing its approach to global trade, as the US and some instances is changing its approach to global alliances and international institutions, it doesn't necessarily mean that other countries are following suit.

And you're seeing other countries work around the US in some kind. Or if the US is pulling back from trade, they're going to double down on trade. The de-dollarization, often, is the metric that's used is are countries relying less on the US.

And I defer to David's expertise. But I think there's going to be a little more diversification. But I still think we're going to have dollar dominance for many, many years to come. But I think we have to look at other things look at global trade flows, look at foreign direct investment, things like that, where we might be starting to see some of the politics around trade and the trade itself driving countries to make different decisions.

And a client say to me, ask me JP Morgan's view. Do we worry all these questions around trade in the perceived chaos? Does it push more people into the arms of China and change the dynamic in any way from what we see today? So I'm curious what you think about that.

Well, I think--

Was it about AI--

Yeah, I mean, look, there's no question that we, the United States, are in a competition with China over influence in many parts of the world, where China has, in some ways, got a head start on the United States. And there are some relationships that are important to the United States economically, diplomatically, that are in pretty rough shape now for a variety of reasons.

And if you're a political leader in Brazil, for example, and you've got the Chinese at your doorstep, you may not-- you may not want to work with China, but it may not be your first choice. But if the US isn't going to be available or reliable as a partner, that's where you're going to go.

Brazil's a good example. We have a couple of big elections coming up this year, not just in the United States, our midterms, but we've got a Brazilian presidential election. We've got an election in Colombia, another country.

We've got a pretty tough relationship right now in the United States. And so I think it's just a reminder that countries have choices. Countries have their own politics, their own incentives. And that even if the US is their first choice, and I personally believe it should be their first choice, and it's still-- I would never bet against America, and I wouldn't advise anyone to do that.

But other countries may calculate things differently. And that China is out there in the international system saying to countries that they are the responsible stewards of the international system, that they are upholding the global order, and it's the Americans who are the unstable, unpredictable ones.

Do you think people don't think that?

I don't think it's true. Well, here's the-- I don't think it's true, and I would push back hard against that. But we can't assume that people don't believe that. And I think one of the things we have to watch is if that starts to get traction.

Yeah. Because maybe just think about AI. Because our market, US market has benefited from AI. And I get the question a lot about whether have we pulled forward some of the gains over the next couple of years? And if this shift does happen towards China, should that be the play? When you think about equities, should people look a little more towards China, Asia, anything like that | an AI perspective?

Well, I think we just have to keep a broad mind about this. I was thinking a little bit about a lot of people compare this to the dot-com bubble. And the thing about dot-com bubble is the internet revolution was absolutely real.

I mean, it changed the world. We knew it would, and it did. But there were only a few companies who turned into the behemoths of today, who were around back then. Most of the companies flamed out. Because it's very hard to predict how this technology is going to evolve and also how the market structure around these companies is going to evolve.

Now, I think that it's doubly so for AI. AI is a little different from the internet boom, in that you need massive amounts of capital just to be a player in the AI-- in the AI space, at least as a general contractor. The Google's, the Meta's, the Amazons of the world.

And those are led by the US, and they do have the capital to do this. So I think that that's happening. But also, you've still got a competition now of five or six huge companies all basically working the same thing, along with Chinese competition and competition from elsewhere.

And it's not clear that you're going to be able to build a fence around everybody's going to just want this kind of AI going forward or it's not necessarily a stable as it might be one social media area or one search engine area. So there may be different winners in different areas of AI.

And also, at the moment, we're using massive amounts of energy and compute power in order to train these models. But there are probably some shortcuts. And we saw this with the DeepSeek announcement in China. But there will be more shortcuts.

I mean, I always think what we're trying to do is mimic the human brain. And what I think about is if I have a Raisin Bran muffin, when I wake up in the morning, I could keep going until midday. I could probably go for a five-mile run. I could do all the calculations, try to do all sorts of meetings, go here, and there, all these things you can do in your brain on the energy in one Raisin Bran muffin.

I mean, we're using massive amounts of energy in the desert to try to get these kind of stupid machines to act smart. They'll get smarter. And I think that's true for a lot of technologies. There is so much opportunity in the pressure caused by the possibilities of this technology.

It's not just in AI. I mean, AI is, of course, but it's got tremendous potential. But you've seen extraordinary breakthroughs, we think, in nuclear fusion, which always seem to be like 30 years away. And now maybe it's not 30 years away, or in genomics, or in robotics.

When you look at things like robotics, genomics, and AI, China is able to focus on it. They can put a lot of capital to bear on this. And they're working hard on it. And so we can't assume that the US is going to be the only winner here.

Yeah, I think the key is just going to be diversification. And I'm glad you mentioned genomics. Because the winners have been mostly tech companies to date. But I've been talking a lot with clients about start looking at other sectors that are going to be beneficiaries. And health care has been a huge laggard.

So there's probably a lot there. Because we're talking about AI, it makes me think of semiconductors, which makes me think of Taiwan. So Derek, just real quick, well, this is not a quick question, but China, Taiwan, potential conflict there. That was a question I got a ton a year and a half ago. Perhaps all the other noise has put that to the background in clients.

Yeah, look, I think it's something we need to be vigilant about in terms of watching. I do not anticipate that there will be a confrontation over Taiwan in the near term.

You say watch, what would you watch to say, oh, this is getting scary.

Well, I mean, watching the crisis, there's a fight between the US, and China, and Taiwan in some way, whether it's in response to a comment by a Taiwanese official, or we're ending the year with a big fight between China, and Japan, and the new Japanese prime minister over some statements that she made vis-a-vis Taiwan.

I don't think that the PRC wants to use military force against Taiwan in the near term. I think they are preparing to have that as a viable option over time. They're not quite there yet in their own minds. That said, we have seen over the last several years increasing amounts of irresponsible and risky Chinese behavior around Taiwan, which could lead to an unintended conflict.

So while I'm not worried that there's an intent to have a conflict, I do worry that that behavior, combined with the buildup of the Chinese military, could lead to an unintended conflict. That's why we need to keep an eye on it. And let's not make a mistake, doubt at all.

A conflict over Taiwan would instantly be a geopolitical crisis, given the reliance that the world--

Has on a shock to markets globally.

Absolutely. The 50% of global commerce goes through the Taiwan Strait. It would-- a conflict there would have immediate repercussions around the world.

And obviously, in portfolios, Dr. Kelly, we can't predict these things. So we're not necessarily trading around this. But How if a client said to you, I'm worried about this happening in the next 12 months, what's your response?

Well, I think there are two things you do. You can hedge a risk, or you can diversify risk. And I don't think this is a situation where you should be trying to hedge risk. Because there's so-- well, yes. But also, in order to hedge your risk, you have to what the risk is.

And there are so many different kinds of risks here that I think the real answer is to be diversified. I think the first thing I'd look at is, is your overall risk level appropriate for where you are in life, and for your wealth, and for your goals, and so forth? So have you drifted out of balance? That's the first thing.

Then after that, you turn to markets. And I think in general mega cap US equities, yes, these are tremendously successful companies, but they're also burning through an awful lot of cash on this AI bet. And if some of them lose that bet.

Then they may not be so profitable going forward. So that's something to think about. But also, there are the architect companies who are building a lot of these technologies. There are obviously the facilitators. There is a huge growth in electricity usage or in-- and therefore, in power-- the potential to produce power.

There are many different ways of playing this. There are a lot of minor small private equity companies or venture capital companies, who will be coming up with breakthroughs in different parts of AI. And the idea that it's just going to be this general intelligence robotic AI, humanoid robot, that's really not where we're headed.

That's just-- that doesn't make sense in so many ways. But long before then, I think you will have different breakthroughs in different areas with very specific winners. And the trick is, don't be too negative about the potential for this technology even if some of the big players are expensive.

But then so that's part of it. But the other part is make sure you've got enough international, make sure you've got enough alternatives. Just keep it spread around. That's what you do with risk. You diversify against risk.

Diversify. I like that. The question about China-Taiwan conflict just brings to mind what's happening right now in Venezuela. And I get the question a lot from clients, maybe I don't know if you want to go there, but is the goal regime change here? Do you expect a conflict? How do you think about that and what do you watch?

Well, I think one of the reasons why there's probably so many questions around is I think there are multiple goals all at work here. I think some of it is in terms of the US military, the use of it around Venezuela, in the Caribbean, in the Eastern Pacific has been about the drug trade, and trying to cut off, particularly the source of cocaine into the United States. Doesn't do anything on the fentanyl side, but it's certainly on cocaine that matters.

But then there's also genuine questions about the regime there in Venezuela. The Venezuelan regime is an authoritarian regime. It's an anti-democratic regime. The winner of the Nobel Peace Prize this year was a Democratic Leader in Venezuela. And so there are those who are advocating for the US to take a stronger role because they want to see a change in the regime in Venezuela.

I think the United States is trying to walk a very careful line here. Clearly, there are national interests at stake when it comes to stemming the drug trade. Clearly, there's a view that the hemisphere and Venezuela, in particular, would be better off with a different kind of government there.

But I don't think the United States is looking to get involved in the kind of regime change like scenario that we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan that occupied us attention for the better part of two decades.

You don't think this is the beginning of more conflicts like this around?

I don't think so. However, one thing we have learned through hard experience over the years is often, when you start using military force, it can end in unpredictable ways. And so you need to remain vigilant about that. And so I do expect that this tempo of military operations to continue and perhaps expand a little bit. I don't think there's an intent to have it go too far, but we may end up getting there. And certainly, this will be an issue that will dominate the first half of next year at least.

OK, one more question I get constantly, we haven't really hit on yet, the Fed. So any quick thoughts, whether it's from a leadership standpoint or just the trajectory from here, just how you're thinking about that, and how it plays into.

Well, obviously, we're soon going to get an announcement on who the next Fed Chair is going to be, at least through the nomination is. And so long as this is not too radical a person, I expect the Senate Finance Committee will confirm that person.

The main point I would make about the Federal Reserve, though, is if you look at the structure of the Federal Reserve, it is strong enough to avoid becoming completely enslaved to the administration. The administration is not going to be-- there are 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Five of them are regional bank presidents. The administration's not going to be able to do anything about them. The seven governors say they will change. They have the opportunity to change one. And then if they appoint somebody from within the Fed, and Jay Powell were to resign, maybe they get to put in two.

But it's not enough to move the needle here. I think that the Fed will still do what the Fed thinks is right. And I think one of the uncertainties that the Fed is dealing with is it's not just where the economy is or where inflation is right now, but do we get more fiscal stimulus.

For example, those tariffs go away, and they're not replaced. And Scott Bessent says that they will be fully replaced. But if they're not replaced, then you have fiscal stimulus from that. But also, you could have a situation where in the run up to the mid-term elections, the administration decides that, well, maybe the public would like another stimulus check here. And if you get that extra stimulus, we know what happens if you give the American public a stimulus check.

Spend it.

Yeah, exactly. And you get a surge in growth, but you also get a surge in inflation, in which case the Fed is going to feel like why are we cutting. So I think the Fed will take it very cautiously here. I do expect a cut in December, but I think they'll take it cautiously early next year to see how much stimulus is going to be put into the economy.

It sounds like you're not concerned about a lack of independence at the Fed because that is a question I get a lot from international clients. Can I trust this?

No. And I think that the recent meetings of the Federal Reserve have been very informative on that. I mean, particularly in the last meeting, where you had one Federal Reserve bank president vote for no change in interest rates even though there was another Fed governor voting in favor of a bigger cut. That suggests to me that Jay Powell is really canvassing the committee and the committee themselves regarded as very much at the top of their priorities to maintain their independence and to treat growth and inflation as their twin goals. And I think they will continue to do that.

Derek, one for you. We talk a lot about negative things when it comes to geopolitics. Anything that you feel like is not getting enough press people should focus on or you wish people asked you about more.

Well, I mentioned one of them already. I mean, I think the Middle East-- and I, myself, talk a lot about the negative things happening in the Middle East.

But it tends to get more headlines.

Yeah, and it may seem sort of discordant with what the headlines have been recently. But I do see a region that is moving closer together, to becoming more integrated. And now that we seem to have a sustained ceasefire in Gaza and a pathway forward to a better future there, and I very much hope and one of the big efforts of next year will be to sustain that and make that piece real, that could open the door to a region that's even more integrated.

I think one of the big pieces of business on the US administration's agenda in the 2026 will be the normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which would be a game changer in the region. The other thing to keep an eye on, which may be negative, but also may be positive, is there will be a political change in Iran sooner rather than later because the Supreme leader of Iran, who is only the second Supreme leader in the history of the Islamic Republic since 1979, is 86 years old and in very poor health. And we don't what's coming next. They don't what's coming next.

So worry about a more radical stance.

Absolutely. So I want to be clear. It could be a lot worse. It could also, we could end up getting more of a moderate-- a leader more willing to, not necessarily support, but do less to stand against many of the good things happening.

How does that new leader come to power?

Well, this is the issue is there is a process. It's very opaque because it's only happened once. And to be candid, a lot of the people who are normally involved in that process were eliminated as a result of the June war. So it's a leadership system that is quite discombobulated.

Iran is ending the year with a massive water crisis. We may be witnessing the first major capital of a country run out of water by the end of the year due to natural reasons, and also due to mismanagement by the government. So anyway, the point is, I do think that there's a lot of dynamism and growth opportunity in the Middle East. We've seen that be realized. I think there's more to come. And there is this potential for greater regional integration.

We're heading into the holidays. People are going to have a little time in cars at home. I get asked all the time. What do you guys read? What do you focus on? Anything that you would share with our clients that they should take a look at. Because people always ask me, what do you trust? And what gives you confidence?

Well, my joke is one of my jobs is to read everything so the clients don't have to. OK, but I will say--

It could be one thing.

I will say two things that come to mind. One of the best books I've read recently is called breakneck by Dan Wong. And it's about China and the United States. And he makes a central point there that is the theme of his book, which is that China is an engineering state.

It's a state run by engineers. Xi Jinping and his top leadership in the Politburo, all engineers. And what they have shown over the last decade plus is their ability to build things quickly, effectively, efficiently, and with great skill. They've also shown some social engineering along the way, whether it was draconian COVID protocols or the one-China policy, which is going to come back to bite them.

Meanwhile, the US is a lawyerly society. We're very good at writing rules, writing regulations. And it's been difficult for us to build things. And so we have-- the United States has been sort on the losing end of that manufacturing competition that China has been dominating in recent years.

So that book, which is I personally learned a ton, but it's also written in a very breezy style that I think is accessible for many people. And then podcast wise, I'm a political junkie. Sometimes I find US politics too depressing to follow that closely, so I like to follow British politics.

So I'm really a fan of podcast called The Rest is Politics by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, who are two wonderful political analysts in the UK. They talk a lot about UK politics, but also about global politics in a very breezy, conversational, fun way. I'd recommend that.

Sounds good for my car ride home. How about you?

Well, I'm sort of oscillate between reading 19th century English because I think it's really well written, and then realizing that I need to be up to date on technology, on medicine, and on energy. And I think one book I'm actually looking forward to is the Emperor of All Maladies, which was put out back in by Siddhartha Mukherjee in 2011, won a Pulitzer Prize.

He's just updated it with four new chapters, which must have a lot to do with some of the extraordinary breakthroughs we've seen in genetics and in customized, targeted medicine. I think the main thing I'd say is we are in an age, where you can't afford not to understand technology and science.

It's really rather sad that we're in an age also, where people seem to be pulling back from science. Because when I think about all the opportunities out there, all of them start with science and technology. And I think people just need to be literate in that area.

The time to be a Luddite. OK, great. Well, listen, thank you both, I appreciate it. I want to be mindful of everyone's time. As I said at the beginning, there is certainly no shortage of headlines. And I think for me, one of the most important takeaways today is just what Dr. Kelly started the conversation, there's a lot of noise out there.

But we continue to see really compelling opportunities in markets. It's just going to require a different approach than what you utilize the last few years, especially after this rally. So I encourage you to take a look at what you own, your portfolio. We are all available to help you think through this.

Reach out to us or any of your JP Morgan partners. We are here for you. I appreciate you all taking the time to join, and I hope you have a great holiday season. Thanks.

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