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Investment Strategy

How have our views played out in 2024?

Summer means warmer weather and longer days, but it also means that Mid-Year Outlook season is here. Before we launch ours next week, we wanted to check in on how the key views contained in our 2024 year-ahead edition have unfolded. What worked, what didn’t, and what we are excited about for the future. 

Let’s start with what has gone our way:

  • We thought inflation would keep trending lower. Indeed, Core PCE inflation has cooled from a 3.2% YoY pace when we published the year-ahead outlook to a 2.75% pace today. Despite consternation along the way, the broad trend is still on track. We expect inflation to continue to moderate as evidenced by deceleration in leading wage growth indicators.
  • We thought the Federal Reserve would cut in the second half of the year. This still looks likely to be the case. Markets expectations are moving back and forth between rate cuts starting in September or December, but the Fed is waiting for the inflation data to offer more confidence in making a move. The global easing cycle is already well underway, with the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank both lowering policy rates this week. This means it’s time to move out of excess cash and into asset classes that tend to perform better when interest rates are falling.

Rate cuts are here

# of central banks with last move as a hike vs. a cut

Source: Individual central banks, FactSet. Data as of June 6, 2024. Note: This analysis includes 37 central banks.
  • We thought stocks were in a sweet spot. Since our publication in December, global equities have rallied about 15%. We saw stocks entering a sweet spot that positioned them to act as both a driver of long-term growth and an inflation hedge in portfolios. The rally has been driven by strong earnings growth and rapidly strengthening AI tailwinds. We continue to see potential double-digit upside for global equities over the next year.

Now, what hasn’t worked:

  • We thought fixed income looked to be more competitive with stocks. With volatility, recession risk and rate cuts in mind, we believed it was time for investors to lock in yields to generate not only income, but also add defensiveness in the event of a recession.
  • What actually happened: Yields on 10-year Treasuries have climbed about 50 basis points year-to-date. Growth has surprised to the upside, remaining above trend in the face of higher rates. Inflation has been stickier than anticipated. As a result, rate-cutting expectations have been pushed out on the calendar. We continue to have conviction in bonds as a key part of a long-term diversified portfolio. With a clearer macroeconomic picture ahead, we think investors could benefit from having a mix of both longer- and shorter-term bonds in their fixed income portfolios. Yields remain elevated across the curve, and that makes fixed income broadly attractive (even if you are just earning income). A decline in rates, as we’re calling for, could augment total returns in the year ahead. 

Many segments of fixed income now outyield cash

Yield, %

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Note: U.S. cash represented by the generic U.S. 3-month T-Bill yield, Tax Equivalent Yield (TEY) tax calculation assumes highest federal income tax of 37% and a Medicare tax of 3.8%, excludes state and local taxes. Data as of June 5, 2024. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

What we’re excited about:

Nearly halfway through the year, we continue to see a diverse set of opportunities for investors. While there are many things to be excited about, you can probably guess what takes the cake: AI.

Over the past six months, we’ve seen AI prove that its hype is real. Near-term, the AI revolution has already meaningfully impacted corporate behavior, investment and earnings: 50% of the S&P 500’s market cap has mentioned AI on earnings calls, although less than 5% of U.S. firms are actively using the technology. To us, this means there could be a long runway for adoption ahead. 

For now, the first round of winners are closely linked to semiconductor manufacturing and cloud computing: Companies such as Nvidia have seen it boost their earnings results above even lofty expectations. We think the theme has staying power and will accelerate in the years to come. We could even see broad economic productivity gains by the end of the decade.

From energy to infrastructure to healthcare, dozens of industries stand to benefit from AI-related innovation.

Mentions of AI are broadening outside of the Mag 7

% of sector mentioning AI on earnings call

Source: S&P 500, GS Investment Research. Data as of March 31, 2024.

It’s not just AI that has us excited. We also think we are at a turning point for commercial real estate. Stable vacancy rates, improving (if still tight) credit conditions and rent growth suggest it’s a favorable time for investors to potentially add to the asset class. Additionally, municipal yields are now higher than corporate bond yields on a tax-equivalent basis for U.S. taxpayers, making it an opportune time to consider adding exposure.

As we reflect on the past six months and look to the road ahead, we are constructive despite the risks posed by fragilities such as the U.S. election or geopolitical events.

The Mid-Year Outlook marks a checkpoint on a longer investment journey. While nothing is certain, ensuring that your portfolio is aligned with your long-term plan is likely the best way to prepare for the future.

Your J.P. Morgan team is here to help.

All market and economic data as of June 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

Index definitions:

  • The S&P 500 index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
  • The Bloomberg EuroAgg Index is a benchmark that measures the investment grade, euro-denominated, fixed-rate bond market, including treasuries, government-related, corporate and securitized issues. Inclusion is based on currency denomination of a bond and not country of risk of the issuer.
  • The Bloomberg USAgg Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and prerefunded bonds.
  • The Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Index measures the market of non-investment grade, fixed-rate corporate bonds denominated in the following currencies: euro, pounds sterling, Danish krone, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. Inclusion is based on the currency of issue, and not the domicile of the issuer.
  • The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded
  • The ICE Variable Rate Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index (PVAR) is designed to track the performance of floating- and variable-rate investment-grade and below-investment-grade U.S. dollar preferred stock, as well as certain types of hybrid securities determined by the index provider, comparable to preferred stocks, that are issued by corporations in the U.S. market.
  • The Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index includes all publicly issued zero-coupon U.S. Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity of less than 3 months and more than 1 month, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in U.S. dollars and must be fixed rate and non-convertible.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.
  • Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.​
  • The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to "stock market risk" meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.​
  • Investment in alternative investment strategies is speculative, often involves a greater degree of risk than traditional investments including limited liquidity and limited transparency, among other factors and should only be considered by sophisticated investors with the financial capability to accept the loss of all or part of the assets devoted to such strategies.​"
Ahead of our Mid-Year Outlook, we discuss what we’ve gotten right and wrong so far this year.

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All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

All market and economic data as of June 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision.

JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only—they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations.

“Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only—they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control.

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Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g., equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

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