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100 trading days in: Why 2024 is different

Yesterday marked the 100th trading day of the year. 2024 has been chock full of risks and opportunities, and as Memorial Day ushers in the unofficial start to summer, it’s worth taking stock of 2024 thus far—and why it’s different from last year.

Strong gains like this are rare and promising

100 trading days in, and the S&P 500 is up more than 10%. That’s well above the historical average for any full year. While past performance is no indication of future results, gains this strong also tend to signal more strength for the rest of the year. Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 has gained at least 10% in the first 100 trading days, stocks have closed out the full year with an average return of about 25%. Seem familiar? This time last year, the S&P 500 was up over 8% and later closed the year with a gain of almost exactly 25%.

100 days in: Strong returns tend to signal more strength ahead

S&P 500 returns after a 10% rally 100 trading days into the year

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P, J.P. Morgan. Data as of May 23, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

This table shows the S&P 500 Index returns in instances of a 10% rally that occurs 100 trading days into the year. This analysis is performed since 1950. In 1950, the index had returned 11% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 9%, and the full year returned 22%. In 1954, the index had returned 17% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 24%, and the full year returned 45%. In 1961, the index had returned 14% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 8%, and the full year returned 23%. In 1963, the index had returned 11% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 7%, and the full year returned 19%. In 1967, the index had returned 12% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 7%, and the full year returned 20%. In 1975, the index had returned 32% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 0%, and the full year returned 32%. In 1976, the index had returned 10% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 8%, and the full year returned 19%. In 1983, the index had returned 18% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 0%, and the full year returned 17%. In 1985, the index had returned 12% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 13%, and the full year returned 26%. In 1986, the index had returned 14% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 0%, and the full year returned 15%. In 1987, the index had returned 19% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was -15%, and the full year returned 2%. In 1989, the index had returned 15% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 11%, and the full year returned 27%. In 1991, the index had returned 14% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 11%, and the full year returned 26%. In 1995, the index had returned 15% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 17%, and the full year returned 34%. In 1996, the index had returned 10% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 9%, and the full year returned 20%. In 1997, the index had returned 14% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 15%, and the full year returned 31%. In 1998, the index had returned 13% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 13%, and the full year returned 27%. In 2013, the index had returned 16% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 12%, and the full year returned 30%. In 2019, the index had returned 13% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 14%, and the full year returned 29%. In 2021, the index had returned 12% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return was 14%, and the full year returned 27%. In 2024, the index had returned 11% by day 100 of that year. The rest of the year return and full year return have yet to come. Across the 20 prior instances (before 2024), the average return for the rest of the year was 9% (with 85% of instances higher), and the average full year return was 25% (with 100% of instances higher).

Yet, here starts the differences: This year’s rally has pushed the S&P 500 to new all-time highs – after a two-year hiatus. So far, 2024 has seen around 25 record highs. In years that the S&P 500 makes a new high, it usually makes around 30 on average. But, years like this one don’t happen often, and they are likewise promising. Whenever stocks have made this many all-time highs this early in the year, the full year has typically made more than 50 new records in all.

The history lesson: More gains could be ahead.

Defying challenges: proving the forecasters wrong

Here’s another thing that’s different: This year’s strength has persisted even as predictions about its drivers have proven wrong.

Coming into the year, investors thought the Federal Reserve would cut rates more than 150 basis points (bps), as economists projected that inflation would fall close to 2%. Equity strategists across the Street calculated that would boost the S&P 500 around the 4,800 mark by the end of the year.

Fast forward, and the Fed stands to only cut once or twice this year, inflation may just break below 3%, and 10-year Treasury yields have surged 60bps (the 5th most for a year in the last 25 years). Most would have thought that foretold a tough time for markets. Yet, as we round out our first 100 days, the S&P 500 sits above the 5,300 level – far above even the most bullish of initial forecasts.

Of course, uncertainty around geopolitics, elections, and the macro debate linger. Markets closest to threats reflect some of the odds – both gold and silver have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, and oil prices remain elevated. But that seems to signal that investors are alert, not discouraged, by the risks.

The secret sauce: strength in profits

It turns out, strong growth was all stocks needed. Why? Earnings.

S&P 500 companies are having their best earnings season in nearly two years, growing profits about 6% over the prior year. The so-called “Magnificent Seven” heavyweights have driven a lot of this growth (and for good reason!), but a broadening has quietly taken shape. All 11 sectors have bested expectations, and eight are posting profit growth.

Even more important: those earnings are higher quality. Profit margins (which show how much profit a company makes from each dollar of sales, after all expenses are deducted) are around 12% for the quarter. That’s a bump from last quarter and above the five-year average.

Markets are taking notice: 100 days in last year, the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 was roughly flat. This year, it’s up 5%.

AI isn’t just hype, and it’s not just big tech

Nvidia just closed out the Q1 earnings with a bang. The advanced chipmaker beat across every measure and signaled that demand for AI products isn’t slowing down from here.

It’s hard to believe that it was just a year ago that Nvidia “shocked” investors by signaling $11 billion of sales for the following quarter. This week, Nvidia said it expects $28 billion in the quarter ahead. Meanwhile, its stock has rallied far more than 200% over that time — all driven by earnings, while its valuation has actually fallen (from highs above 60x to about 35x today).

Earnings have fueled Nvidia's ascent, while valuations have fallen

Nvidia return breakdown since its Q1 2023 earnings report, %

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of May 23, 2024. Note: Earnings refer to next 12-months EPS expectations. Valuation refers to next 12-months price-to-earnings ratio. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

To echo Nvidia Founder and CEO Jensen Huang, “the next industrial revolution has begun…to produce a new commodity: artificial intelligence.” Already, focus seems to be shifting from questioning the importance of AI and towards analyzing how companies can generate return their investments – and how that eventually creates broader productivity benefits for the economy.

Investor enthusiasm is spreading beyond the giants at the heart of the innovation – and into demand for data centers and power transmission. Consider this: Looking at the S&P 500’s top 10 performers so far this year, five of those are utilities and industrials.

The impact won’t show up overnight, but in the meantime, Nvidia’s report was a litmus test for both AI and the market at large. The stock has garnered a degree of macro importance — it’s accounted for over 15% of the S&P 500’s return over the last year. That’s as much of an opportunity as it is a risk to watch. For now, it adds to our conviction in a strong economy accompanied by strong markets.

The takeaway: Embrace the change

100 days into the year, and 2024’s story is one of strength. Markets have powered on thanks to a strong economy and in spite of continued challenges. The profit-boosting potential of companies is real, growing, and further fueled on by the AI revolution. Investors should take note of the shift.

Reach out to your friendly neighborhood J.P. Morgan advisor to learn what this means for you and your portfolio.

All market and economic data as of May 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

It’s been a paradox of progress for investors in 2024. But what’s the market’s secret to success—and what could come next?

Madison Faller Global Investment Strategist

Craig Cohen Investment Advisor, Global Investment Opportunities

Published May 24, 2024

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All market and economic data as of May 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. It is a capitalization weighted index.

The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight – or 0.2% of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla

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100 trading days in: Why 2024 is different

Strong gains like this are rare and promising

100 days in: Strong returns tend to signal more strength ahead

S&P 500 returns after a 10% rally 100 trading days into the year

Defying challenges: proving the forecasters wrong

The secret sauce: strength in profits

AI isn’t just hype, and it’s not just big tech

Earnings have fueled Nvidia's ascent, while valuations have fallen

Nvidia return breakdown since its Q1 2023 earnings report, %

The takeaway: Embrace the change

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locate an office

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100 trading days in: Why 2024 is different

Strong gains like this are rare and promising

100 days in: Strong returns tend to signal more strength ahead

S&P 500 returns after a 10% rally 100 trading days into the year

Defying challenges: proving the forecasters wrong

The secret sauce: strength in profits

AI isn’t just hype, and it’s not just big tech

Earnings have fueled Nvidia's ascent, while valuations have fallen

Nvidia return breakdown since its Q1 2023 earnings report, %

The takeaway: Embrace the change

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