Investment Strategy

5 reasons we’re thankful

Nov 24, 2021

From essential workers and medical professionals to an investable future, here are five things we are thankful for this year.

Ryan Daniel, Global Market Strategist

Federico Cuevas, Global Market Strategist

Derby Chukwudi, Global Market Strategist

 

 

Our Top Market Takeaways for November 24, 2021.

Giving thanks

Happy Thanksgiving

 

#blessed. It’s Thanksgiving week and there is so much to be thankful for. Despite continued hurdles and headwinds in 2021, we haven’t lost sight of the strides forward this year has made—from emerging out of last year’s lockdowns to the gradual recovery we’re seeing across the globe. We hope you get to celebrate life, health and growth this Thanksgiving. But before we get to the food, we wanted to share a few things we’re grateful for:

1. Medical professionals’ perseverance and our essential workers’ dedication to getting us through the crisis

It’s a little over two years since the first reported COVID-19 case, and thanks to tireless hours of hard work by so many, we’ve progressed from the hardships of lockdowns. We are humbled by the united front shown by healthcare workers, essential workers, researchers, teachers, parents, and more broadly, the global community. Although we’re not fully past the virus, the power of vaccines and new treatments give us hope and good reason for continued optimism. Over 53% of the world’s population has received at least one vaccine dose, compared to 10% in June. And breakthrough treatments, such as Pfizer’s take-home pill, will likely be game changers.

2. The global earnings recovery delivering

Heading into 2021, we expected earnings to come through and impress, and impress they did. When it comes to the story behind this year’s equity market returns, it’s all come down to earnings growth. We saw blockbuster numbers in Q2 especially (over +90% earnings growth versus the previous year!), and Q3 has continued the momentum (which is estimated to have delivered +40%). Tailwinds of vaccine progress, economic reopening, supportive monetary and fiscal policy, and an insatiable consumer are to thank. Notably, such fundamental growth stands in stark contrast to 2020, which was marked almost entirely by valuation expansion—or pure hope that things would get better, even if it hadn’t come through in earnings yet. Looking forward, while the pace of growth stands to moderate from here, we still see robust quarters of earnings growth ahead as we enter a vibrant mid-cycle environment.

This chart shows the composition of USD returns across equity markets as of November 22, 2021, as a percentage change. It shows the currency, multiple, earnings, dividend, and total for each one of the markets. In the Developed Markets ex-USA (DM ex-USA), it shows that currency returns are -6.2%, multiple returns are -12%, dividend returns are 33.2%, earnings returns are 33.2% and total returns are 12.7%. In the Emerging Markets (EM), it shows that currency returns are -2.3%, multiple returns are -17%, dividend returns are 2.2%, earnings returns are 20.3% and total returns are -0.2%. In USA, it shows that currency returns are 0%, multiple returns are -5%, dividend returns are 2.8%, earnings returns are 29.9% and total returns are 25.2%. In the Eurozone, it shows that currency returns are -8.1%, multiple returns are -12%, dividend returns are 2.8%, earnings returns are 37.5% and total returns are 13.8%. In Japan, it shows that currency returns are -10%, multiple returns are -17%, dividend returns are 2.3%, earnings returns are 37.4% and total returns are 4.8%. In the UK, it shows that currency returns are -2%, multiple returns are -17%, dividend returns are 4.3%, earnings returns are 35.3% and total returns are 14.8%. In China, it shows that currency returns are -0.1%, multiple returns are -16%, dividend returns are 1.2%, earnings returns are -0.8% and total returns are -15.1%.

3. An exciting future…that is investable!

With global equities near all-time highs, it’s natural to ask where else we can look. We believe the three megatrends of digital transformation, healthcare innovation and sustainability can drive growth and deliver outsized returns in the years ahead. It’s incredible to see how much has changed in a relatively short amount of time. One example: Remote work is now ubiquitous. Secular changes are accelerating and here to stay; some of these opportunities are just in their infancies. Artificial intelligence (projected to be a $16 trillion opportunity in 2030) has the revolutionizing potential to transform businesses, boost productivity, and identify cost savings and threats. Looking at the healthcare industry, we’re seeing exciting developments in precision medicine, with the potential to create customized and unique treatments for every patient. We’re also expecting autonomous vehicles, semiconductors and agricultural technology (AgTech) to provide a wealth of opportunities going forward.

4. The path forward for ESG investing

Speaking of investable secular themes—sustainability deserves its own shout out. As the recent UN COP26 summit showed, the global community is not only focused on a more sustainable future, but also on forging a concrete path to net zero. Corporations are likewise taking steps. For instance, J.P. Morgan recently joined the Net Zero Banking Alliance and became a signatory of the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative—steps that build on our Paris-aligned Financing Commitment. In August, the SEC voted to approve proposed rules by Nasdaq that would require disclosure by exchange-listed companies on the gender and ethnic compositions of their boards. Inevitably, we expect to see more regulatory requirements that will be built into the ESG space as flows continue to grow globally. From this investment lens, we believe in the power of sustainable investing to drive both long-term growth and a positive impact. You can read more about our approach here.

5. What J.P. Morgan does for communities worldwide

We pride ourselves in doing first-class business in a first-class way. But it’s not just about that.

The firm continues to be a leader in empowering change in communities and defining what impact should look like. Social inequality has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. We’re grateful our firm’s leaders decided that now is the time to take meaningful action. In October 2020, we announced a $30 billion, five-year Racial Equity Commitment to help close the racial wealth gap among Black, Hispanic and Latino communities. When it comes to enhancing financial health, we have helped customers open more than 200,000 low-cost checking accounts with no overdraft fees, as well as opened nine Community Center branches and hired 72 Community Managers in underserved communities. We have also hired more than 130 Community Home Lending Advisors and expanded the homebuyer grant program to $5,000 in 6,700 minority neighborhoods nationwide. To keep the firm accountable to its racial commitment, we have established a robust reporting and governance process for consistent tracking of the $30 billion Commitment, which is run by the Community Impact organization. We value our communities, and continue to identify opportunities to nurture change.

 

Above all, we are thankful for the trust that you place in all of us at J.P. Morgan, and for following markets along with us throughout the year.

 

Wishing you and yours a happy holiday season.

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All market and economic data as of November 2021 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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