Investment Strategy

Market metrics: Where are we going from here?

Oct 21, 2022

History may hold key clues into where this market is headed. Consider these charts as the volatility continues.

Our Top Market Takeaways for October 21, 2022.

Market update

Searching for direction

 

Still-rising bond yields have investors on edge. The 10-year Treasury yield hasn’t been this high since 2007. It was 1.5% at the beginning of this year, 2.5% in August, and around 4.25% now. We think bond yields are providing investors with a very attractive entry point, but the trend higher continues.

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned yesterday in the aftermath of market turmoil caused by her government’s planned tax cuts. That, combined with Monday’s U-turn announcement undoing much of those measures, helped Gilt yields fall back below 4% this week. While a change in leadership is probably good news for markets given the next Prime Minister will likely embrace more fiscally stable policies, there isn’t much the government will be able to do to change the perilous economic challenges facing the country for the next few months.

Stocks have bounced overall this week, but they are really just hovering near their lowest levels of the year. Some solid earnings reports (from the likes of Netflix, JPMorgan and United Airlines) have diffused the fears of imminent economic collapse that the FedEx pre-announcement from a few weeks ago suggested was possible. But still, this earnings season overall has been more mixed (CarMax and Generac are notable misses).

Corporate earnings may not be collapsing, but it also probably means that inflation isn’t collapsing either. That means the Fed will likely remain on the front foot when it comes to rate hikes for the rest of the year.  

As we trudge through another week of market swings, today we share 5 observations that could help us find some direction:

1. The importance of staying invested. Wednesday marked the 35th anniversary of the 1987 “Black Monday” stock crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 22% in a single day. Anyone who bought on Friday probably felt like they had made a terrible decision. Hopefully they considered that time can heal most market-inflicted wounds. From the day before Black Monday to now, the S&P 500 has annualized at a rate of 9.8% per year. 9.8% annually over the last 35 years, in the face of today’s bear market and all the ones in between? We’ll take it.

This charts shows the annualized S&P 500 total return if someone had invested the day before Black Monday (at the closing level on October 15, 1987) versus the day after Black Monday (at the closing level on October 19, 1987). From the day before Black Monday, the S&P 500 has annualized a total return of 9.8% through October 20, 2022. From the day after Black Monday, the S&P 500 has annualized a total return of 10.7% through October 20, 2022.
2. Monetary policy works with a lag. While Fed rate hikes haven’t quelled inflation and cracked the labor market, the list of other economic indicators on the decline is growing. With mortgage rates now at a two-decade high, pretty much every housing indicator we monitor is plummeting—from housing starts, to pending home sales, to home construction. Read: monetary policy seems to be acting with a major lag when it comes to prices and labor.
This charts shows the year-over-year change in new home sales vs. existing home sales in the United States from 2000 through September 2022. Although the series undulate month to month, both new and existing home sales showed mostly positive growth from 2000 through October 2005; new home sales growth peaked at 22.9% in February 2004 while existing home sales growth peaked at 17.8% in August 2003. From October 2005, the change in existing home sales declined to a trough of -30.4% by October 2007, while the change in existing home sales declined to a trough of -41.6% by November 2008. Existing home sales recovered to positive growth from May 2009 through June 2010, while new home sales growth was positive only from January 2010 through March 2010. Both returned to contraction until May 2011. Thereafter, growth in both was positive until the end of 2013 before turning slightly negative in 2014. New home sales grew at a stronger rate than existing home sales from the end of 2014 through the summer of 2018; both turned negative until seeing positive growth again in most of 2019. Both new and existing home sales growth plummeted at the onset of the pandemic in 2020, with the change in existing home sales troughing at -17.4% in April 2020 and the change in new home sales trough at -7.2% in February 2020. A sharp recovery saw new home sales growth spike to a high of 45% by July 2020, while existing home sales growth hit its high of 34% in April 2021. Since then, both activity indicators have declined and are once again contracting. As of September 2022, the change in new home sales was -13% compared to the change in existing home sales of -21%.

3. How will the levee break? In his latest Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest reviews bear markets since WWII. The trend is pretty consistent: equity declines preceded a fall in earnings, growth and employment. Even in the stagflation era of the 1970s, equities troughed first, followed by GDP, payrolls and then earnings. This time, the bottom will likely happen as the world feels worse and worse.

4. So, that begs the question of what’s priced in today? So far this year, the S&P 500 is down -23%. Based on the historical relationship between the index and manufacturing PMIs (a key leading growth indicator), the market is pricing in PMIs falling into contractionary territory to ~43 (from 52 today). Over the last five recessions (as defined by NBER), PMIs bottomed near 38, and from the start to end of each recession, it averaged 43. It seems to us that the market is reflecting a decent amount of economic pain, but not the worst of it is in the price.

This charts shows the U.S. Manufacturing PMI index level implied by the S&P 500 (henceforth, implied PMI), versus the actual PMI index level as an average of the ISM and S&P Markit Manufacturing indices (henceforth, actual PMI). It starts in January 2000 and shows data through October 2022. Levels above 50 indicate expansion; levels below 50 indicate contraction. From the start of 2000 through the autumn of 2001, both the implied and actual PMI levels declined from the mid-50s to the low 40s. Thereafter, both rose back above 50 in 2002, before declining to below 50 again in the first half of 2003. 2004 saw a rise in both to levels above 60. Both stayed fairly rangebound in expansionary territory (above 50) through 2008. During the Global Financial Crisis, PMIs plummeted to the low 30s before finding a bottom in January 2009. A quick recovery took the implied PMI up to 68 by February 2010, and the actual PMI to 58 by April 2010. From then until the start of 2020, both oscillated in a range of 47 to 60. The start of the pandemic in early 2020 sent both series lower, with actual PMI troughing at 38.8 and implied PMI at 47 by April 2020. Over the course of the recovery, actual PMI rose back to 61 by June 2021 and implied back to 70 by March 2021. Since then, both indicators have declined—the implied PMI stands at 42.7, compared to actual PMI at 52.1 as of October 2022. The takeaway is that the PMI implied by the S&P 500 is embedding more pain, or a greater slowdown, than what the actual PMI is currently indicating. For context and comparison, a horizontal line shows the average PMI trough during historical recessions of 38.
5. Stocks seem to be reflecting the most economic damage. The S&P 500’s year-to-date decline (-23%) represents roughly 85% of the median historical drawdown that coincided with a recession. Thanks to the exorbitant rise in yields and ~70bps in IG spread widening this year (credit spreads are ~185bps today), high quality bonds are also reflecting 76% of the pain of what you would expect to see in your typical recession—just another data point to add to the opportunity now for core bonds. High yield spreads, meanwhile, have remained relatively sanguine. From here, we expect high yield credit spreads to widen a bit further.
This chart shows the % of year-to-date moves relative to median of past recessions for the S&P 500, U.S. Investment Grade Bonds and U.S. High Yield. • S&P 500: 85% • U.S. IG: 76% • U.S. HY: 44%
While we impatiently await some stability in markets, it seems like 2022 will be one of the worst years we’ve seen for both stocks and bonds. There may well be more pain ahead, but today also represents one of the best entry points on a valuation basis for multi-asset investors in a decade.
This chart shows the worst calendar year declines for S&P 500 and Bloomberg Agg Bond. S&P 500: 2008 (-38%), 1974 (-30%), 2002 (-23%), 2022 YTD (-23), and 1973 (-17%) Bloomberg Agg Bond: 2022 YTD (-19%), 1994 (-3%), 2013 (-2%), 2021 (-2%), 1999 (-1%)
Reach out to your J.P. Morgan team to evaluate what actions may make the most sense for your portfolio.

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Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries

All market and economic data as of October 2022 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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