Investment Strategy

3 lessons from Eye on the Market 20th Anniversary Edition

OBBBA Reminder

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law on July 4, 2025, permanently extends many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that were set to expire at the end of 2025, while also implementing various Republican and Trump administration tax priorities. Key insights for clients include: (1) considering front-loading charitable deductions in 2025 due to upcoming limitations, (2) transferring wealth to future generations if feasible, and (3) optimizing new benefits from increased state and local taxes (SALT) deduction cap, enhanced qualified small business stock (QSBS) thresholds and exclusions, and faster deduction of certain business expenses.

Visit our Tax Policy Hub on the Private Bank website for more detail on what’s been enacted, and our insights into what that may mean for you.

Market Update

You might think that renewed tariff fears and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) would have caused some volatility, but you’d be wrong. The S&P 500 reached new highs, U.S. Treasury yields stayed flat, Federal Reserve cut expectations held steady, and the USD gained slightly against major peers.

Even after President Trump announced higher blanket tariffs at 15%–20% and a potential 35% tariff rate for Canadian goods, USMCA goods remaining exempt, markets stayed relatively muted; futures are down only about 60 basis points as of 5:30 a.m. ET.

Amid broader tariff announcements, copper tariffs serve as a good reminder of how markets are digesting the news: A 50% increase announcement for August 1 led to a 13% spike in prices before a 3.5% pullback. The United States imports about 45% of its copper, and lacks the capacity to mine and smelt more. So why isn’t the impact larger? The move was somewhat anticipated. U.S. importers built ample inventory, and expectations are for a resolution at a lower rate. Investors aren’t buying the 50% tariff rate. The administration’s aim is to encourage U.S. copper production. While not feasible now, it could be in 3–5 years with investment and faster permits.

On the flip side, the OBBBA introduces $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in spending cuts while boosting military and immigration enforcement funding. Initially, fears arose about the impact on U.S. debt and the fiscal deficit, with spending cuts seen as insufficient to offset the accretive effect. However, it’s not as dire as it seems. Although OBBBA raises the deficit, the $3.4 trillion estimate might be overstated. The CBO estimate doesn’t account for tariff revenues, expected to mitigate some fiscal challenges. Our estimates suggest a modest reduction in the deficit (excluding interest servicing costs) as the likely combined net effect over time.

Our take: Investors are focusing on fundamentals over noise. The Tariff headlines seem like more bark than bite, and markets have become desensitized to the flurry of announcements. While the latest tariff news suggests an effective rate of 15%–20%, we continue to believe some threats won’t stick. Our base case remains: Effective tariff rates will fall between 10% and 15%. We expect a modest drag on growth, but investors believe the administration is determined to make deals. After all, this could be the final stages of negotiation. Either these rates won’t stick, or they will, but at least we will gain clarity.

Market have become desensitized to tariff announcements

Absolute return on tariff event days, %

Sources: PIIE; Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of June 11, 2025. Indices used: XAU Curncy; MXWOU Index; SPY US EQUITY; DXY Index. Events from PIIE post inauguration.

This bar chart shows absolute return on tariff event days for several asset classes. On 1-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.3%, USD was 0.6%, Gold was 0.6%, S&P500 was 0.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.9%, European Equities was 1.3%. On 4-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 0.9%, Gold was 1.0%, S&P500 was 0.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.0%, European Equities was 1.1%. On 5-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.5%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.4%, Gold was 0.9%, S&P500 was 0.4%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.1%, European Equities was 0.1%. On 10-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.0%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 0.3%, Gold was 1.6%, S&P500 was 0.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.2%, European Equities was 0.9%. On 13-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.6%, Gold was 0.8%, S&P500 was 1.1%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.6%, European Equities was 1.7%. On 21-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.4%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 0.1%, S&P500 was 1.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.0%, European Equities was 0.1%. On 25-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 0.3%, Gold was 1.2%, S&P500 was 0.5%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.1%, European Equities was 0.1%. On 1-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 0.8%, Gold was 1.2%, S&P500 was 1.8%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.4%, European Equities was 1.7%. On 4-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.3%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.9%, Gold was 0.9%, S&P500 was 1.2%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.2%, European Equities was 2.9%. On 6-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 0.3%, S&P500 was 1.8%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.5%, European Equities was 0.5%. On 12-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 0.6%, S&P500 was 0.5%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.6%, European Equities was 1.0%. On 25-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.1%, Gold was 0.3%, S&P500 was 0.2%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.6%, European Equities was 1.1%. On 26-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.3%, USD was 0.3%, Gold was 0.0%, S&P500 was 1.2%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.5%, European Equities was 1.2%. On 2-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.4%, Gold was 0.7%, S&P500 was 0.6%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.0%, European Equities was 0.5%. On 3-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.9%, USD was 1.7%, Gold was 0.6%, S&P500 was 4.9%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.6%, European Equities was 3.6%. On 4-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 1.0%, USD was 0.9%, Gold was 2.5%, S&P500 was 5.9%, World ex U.S. Equities was 5.5%, European Equities was 4.3%. On 5-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 1.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 1.0%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 1.8%, S&P500 was 0.2%, World ex U.S. Equities was 5.6%, European Equities was 5.2%. On 8-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.3%, Gold was 0.0%, S&P500 was 1.6%, World ex U.S. Equities was 2.7%, European Equities was 2.7%. On 9-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.1%, Gold was 3.3%, S&P500 was 10.5%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.3%, European Equities was 3.0%. On 10-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 2.0%, Gold was 3.0%, S&P500 was 4.4%, World ex U.S. Equities was 5.0%, European Equities was 4.5%. On 14-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.7%, USD was 0.5%, Gold was 0.8%, S&P500 was 1.0%, World ex U.S. Equities was 2.3%, European Equities was 2.5%. On 29-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 0.8%, S&P500 was 0.6%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.3%, European Equities was 0.1%. On 8-May U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.5%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 1.0%, Gold was 1.7%, S&P500 was 0.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.6%, European Equities was 1.2%. On 13-May U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.5%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.9%, USD was 0.7%, Gold was 2.2%, S&P500 was 4.0%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.3%, European Equities was 2.1%. On 3-Jun U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.0%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.5%, Gold was 0.8%, S&P500 was 0.6%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.3%, European Equities was 0.2%. On 4-Jun U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.4%, Gold was 0.6%, S&P500 was 0.0%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.8%, European Equities was 0.6%. On 11-Jun U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.3%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.5%, Gold was 0.9%, S&P500 was 0.3%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.2%, European Equities was 0.5%. There are two dashed lines encasing April 3 to April 10, highlighting market returns post liberation day and pre 90-day pause.

Don’t get us wrong—there could be tail risks ahead. But the Fed is showing more willingness to ease financial conditions without significant labor market deterioration, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored. A renewed rate-cutting cycle without a recession would be a bullish outcome.

Investors are already looking ahead to Q2 earnings season, which is shaping up to be stronger than expected. Some call it complacency; but if earnings come in as we expect them to, it will become fact. Soon, expectations will shift to 2026.

Sometimes all we need is to step back and gain perspective. Don’t miss the forest for the trees. To that end, we take a closer look at three insights from Michael Cembalest’s 20th anniversary Eye on the Market.

Spotlight

This week Michael Cembalest, our Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, released the 20th Anniversary Edition of Eye on the Market. Since its first launch in the summer of 2005, Eye on the Market has published 584 editions. In this retrospective piece, Cembalest revisits 30 key topics.

As you dive into his work, we wanted to provide context on how some of these key pieces tie in with our perspective and recent developments. Here are our top three insights:

The Armageddonists! A cottage industry of doomsayers has been expensive to listen to: Despite their dire warnings, historical data reveals that investors who shifted from equities to bonds based on these predictions faced significant losses. Even during the COVID-19 sell-off in March 2020, these losses did not reverse, and the market’s subsequent rally underscored the advantages of staying invested amid apocalyptic forecasts.

The consequences of listening to the Armageddonists, 2010-2019

Performance impact of shifting $1 from the S&P 500 to the Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index, measured from the week of the Armageddonist comment to November 8, 2019

Sources: Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of November 8, 2019. Using weekly S&P 500 and Barclay's Aggregate data.

The lesson: Don’t get caught up in short-term headlines and sensationalism.

It’s crucial to keep a long-term investment horizon. History shows that recessions and bear markets occur, and listening to perpetual pessimists can be costly compared to a balanced approach. This year’s volatility is a case in point: During the worst of the downturn, consumer sentiment plunged to 52.2 from 74 at the end of 2024, market recession odds hit 65%, and the S&P 500 dropped 19%. Just three months later, sentiment rose to 60.7, recession odds fell to 22%, and the S&P 500 surged +25% from its April 8 lows, hitting four new all-time highs after recovering all losses by June 26.

US exceptionalism: on the outperformance of US equities and the resilience of the US$: U.S. exceptionalism was evident in the sustained outperformance of U.S. equities and the resilience of the U.S. dollar. Since 2010, U.S. equities thrived, fueled by USD strength, sector weight differences, and superior within-sector performance driven by higher returns on assets and equity.

Decomposition of U.S. equity outperformance vs. Europe since 2009

Total return index (100 = Dec 2009)

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of May 2023.

This chart shows how US equity outperformance vs. Europe is composed by looking at the total return index since December 2019 to May 2023. On 12/31/2009 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 100.00, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 100.00, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 100.00, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 100.00, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 100.00, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 100.00, and MSCI US would be 100.00. On 12/31/2010 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 104.24, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 111.77, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 114.93, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 113.74, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 113.20, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 115.85, and MSCI US would be 115.49. On 12/30/2011 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 93.37, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 103.26, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 108.61, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 109.94, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 111.35, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 115.34, and MSCI US would be 117.79. On 12/31/2012 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 112.11, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 121.74, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 131.17, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 130.47, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 131.08, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 135.22, and MSCI US would be 136.79. On 12/31/2013 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 141.13, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 146.67, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 161.25, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 160.74, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 163.32, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 170.12, and MSCI US would be 181.40. On 12/31/2014 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 133.10, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 157.64, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 174.79, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 177.19, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 180.24, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 190.22, and MSCI US would be 205.63. On 12/31/2015 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 130.02, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 171.49, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 194.02, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 193.09, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 195.78, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 204.51, and MSCI US would be 208.34. On 12/30/2016 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 130.22, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 176.94, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 200.90, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 203.35, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 207.93, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 223.90, and MSCI US would be 232.51. On 12/29/2017 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 164.47, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 196.06, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 225.54, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 236.39, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 245.30, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 267.62, and MSCI US would be 283.43. On 12/31/2018 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 140.88, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 176.30, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 206.45, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 220.86, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 234.47, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 258.04, and MSCI US would be 270.67. On 12/31/2019 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 175.20, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 223.59, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 265.06, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 288.82, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 305.28, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 339.29, and MSCI US would be 356.31. On 12/31/2020 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 185.44, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 217.40, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 268.97, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 313.51, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 343.88, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 387.14, and MSCI US would be 432.46. On 12/31/2021 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 217.31, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 273.52, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 343.44, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 396.71, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 434.70, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 492.03, and MSCI US would be 549.10. On 12/30/2022 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 186.13, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 249.03, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 296.41, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 340.79, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 362.77, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 405.70, and MSCI US would be 442.24. On 05/16/2023 MSCI Europe in US$ total return index would be 211.07, Currency: outperformance of US$ vs EUR would be 278.36, Sector weight differences: US O/W tech, Europe O/W financials, industrials & staples would be 338.12, Within sector: US tech outperforms European tech would be 393.39, Within sector: US cons. disc. outperforms European cons. disc. would be 416.10, Within sector: US financials outperform European financials would be 457.81, and MSCI US would be 476.41.

While undisputed, the next decade likely won’t mirror the last. In 2025, USD investors in European equities have seen a 24% rise year-to-date, outpacing the 5.9% gain in U.S. equities. This shift hints at a narrowing gap between U.S. and European equities, and offers growth opportunities in both regions fueled by evolving currency dynamics.

The lesson: Embrace U.S. tech growth, but ensure balanced exposure to global markets for a well-rounded strategy.

While the U.S. exceptionalism narrative may be shifting, the United States remains the destination of choice, with higher GDP growth, productivity and earning potential. As noted in Eye on the Market, U.S. sectors may be pricier, but they align with a market willing to pay for higher returns. Additionally, sector composition has evolved, with growth sectors such as technology, communication services and consumer discretionary now making up about half of the S&P 500—historically demanding higher multiples.

That’s not to say Europe lacks new catalysts or that the gap isn’t closing, bolstered by a weaker USD driven by cyclical convergence, global asset reallocation and increased FX-hedge ratios among foreign investors. Considering all this, the start of 2025 should be a wake-up call—not signaling the end of U.S. exceptionalism, but a return to balanced portfolios. After all, an MSCI World allocation is 70% U.S. and 30% ex-U.S.

The bet of the century: hyperscaler capital spending on AI infrastructure: AI capital spending is surging among hyperscalers such Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon—a bold move with inherent risks. That said, Nvidia’s data center revenues as a share of total market capital spending are projected to hit levels reminiscent of past tech booms, and investors are eager to see hyperscaler free cash flow margins reflect the benefits of this spending. Meanwhile, equity analysts are adjusting expectations for slower earnings growth due to the depreciation of new AI infrastructure.

Hyperscaler free cash flow margins

%

Source: Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of March 31, 2025.

The lesson: Invest in innovation to drive the next revolution, paving the way for future productivity and earnings growth.

As we’ve also discussed in the Mid-Year Outlook, the AI theme holds immense potential to disrupt industries. While we remain vigilant for any signs of wavering commitment or impacts on company decisions, recent developments reinforce our confidence in AI’s transformative potential:

AI adoption on the rise. Census Bureau data shows AI adoption and expectations have doubled in the past year, driving significant market shifts. This surge in AI technologies has propelled Nvidia to become the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap, underscoring the transformative impact of AI.
Growing role in software. Microsoft’s strategic layoffs of 15,000 employees and the declining rate of software engineering hires reflect a shift toward AI automation, aiming to boost productivity and reduce the need for coders. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg even noted that he expects AI to write most of the code for Llama research within the next 12–18 months, underscoring AI’s growing role in software development.
Investments are ramping up globally. China plans to use 115,000 Nvidia AI chips for Gobi Desert data centers despite U.S. restrictions. Meanwhile, Meta is pouring over a billion dollars into Superintelligence Labs, recruiting top talent from OpenAI, DeepMind and Apple to enhance its AI capabilities.

Overall, it seems companies are fearing getting left behind in the AI race, and are willing to put money to work to avoid this.

KEY RISKS

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3 lessons from Eye on the Market 20th Anniversary Edition

OBBBA Reminder

Market Update

Market have become desensitized to tariff announcements

Absolute return on tariff event days, %

Spotlight

The consequences of listening to the Armageddonists, 2010-2019

Performance impact of shifting $1 from the S&P 500 to the Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index, measured from the week of the Armageddonist comment to November 8, 2019

Decomposition of U.S. equity outperformance vs. Europe since 2009

Total return index (100 = Dec 2009)

Hyperscaler free cash flow margins

%

KEY RISKS

Important Information

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