A half-year roundup: 50 events shaping 2025 so far
Halftime report
Optimism soared for U.S. markets at the beginning of 2025 driven by Trump 2.0’s pro-growth policies. However, unexpected headwinds such as tariffs impacted global markets. Despite these challenges, markets powered through and reached new all-time highs by the end of the first half of the year.
The macroeconomic landscape has mirrored this whirlwind. After the Trump administration reversed its most draconian tariff policies, inflation expectations rose to 4.4%, but ticked down to 4%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded from 52 to 60, and U.S. composite PMIs recovered to 52.8. Market performance also turned around because the worst-case scenarios came off the table. Uncertainty still looms. Hard data remains resilient but may moderate as tariffs work their way through the economy.
Despite the chaos, the S&P 500 (+5.4%) ended the first half of the year at record levels, marking the fastest rebound ever after a ≥15% drawdown. Since the peak sell-off in early April, the index recovered $10.2 trillion in market value. In all, roughly 60% of the index’s constituents are in the green this year. The Magnificent 7 is no more. Meta (+22.8%), Microsoft (+16.7%) and Nvidia (+14.2%) have outperformed, but the other names have lagged. As the AI trade broadens out, the industrials (+12.3%) sector has emerged as the top-performing sector so far this year. Solid first halves of the year tend to beget solid second halves—in the 11 instances since 2000 where the S&P 500 was up at least 5% in the first half, it rallied further in the second half every time, with the full year averaging a gain of over 19%.
Conversely, Europe surged on the 4 D’s: defense spending, debt brakes, diversification benefits and discounted valuations. The Euro Stoxx 50 hit all-time highs, now up +7.9%, and +22.7% in USD terms. Banks led the Stoxx Euro 600 with a +27.3% gain, marking their strongest first half since 1997.
Overall, the first half underscored the power of diversification. After three years of concentrated performance, the 60/40 portfolio made a strong comeback. It has surged nearly +9%. As we move forward, sentiment has improved, and volatility has eased. It’s been a “vegetables first, dessert later” kind of year, setting the stage for a rewarding second half.
Heading into the holiday weekend, we offer a look at the events dominating headlines this year.
Happy Fourth!
Halftime report
MSCI World Index 2025 price return, %
2025 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, %
Source: Bloomberg L.P. Data as of July 1, 2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest in an index.
The graphs show MSCI World Index price return and the 10-year Treasury with markers for specific events. On 01/07/2025, Los Angeles experienced the most destructive wildfire in its history. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 0.70% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.69%. On 01/13/2025, China announced a record trade surplus of $990 billion, producing a third of the world’s manufactured goods. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -0.87% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.78%. On 01/19/2025, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire came into effect in Gaza as the first Israeli hostages were released. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 1.91% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.63%. On 01/19/2025, TikTok was banned in the United States for approximately 12 hours. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 1.91% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.63%. On 01/20/2025, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States for a second term, with JD Vance sworn in as Vice President. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 2.19% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.63%. On 01/20/2025, Trump officially created the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 2.19% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.63%. On 01/24/2025, Venture Global’s IPO raised $1.75 billion, making it the largest U.S. IPO so far this year. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 3.98% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.62%. On 01/27/2025, DeepSeek, a Chinese rival to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, was introduced, causing a sharp decline in the Nasdaq. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 2.86% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.53%. On 01/27/2025, Nvidia stock fell by $588.8 billion, the most a stock has ever lost in a single day. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 2.86% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.53%. On 02/01/2025, Trump signs an executive order: 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 3.47% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.54%. On 02/02/2025, Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter won a Grammy for Album of the Year, and Kendrick Lamar won Grammys for Song and Record of the Year. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 3.47% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.54%. On 02/06/2025, Amazon said it planned to boost its capital expenditures to $100 billion for the year. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 4.19% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.43%. On 02/09/2025, the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 to win Super Bowl LIX. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 3.39% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.49%. On 02/10/2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 3.94% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.50%. On 02/27/2025, OpenAI launched GPT-4.5, its largest and best model for chat yet. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 1.69% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.26%. On 03/02/2025, Anora director Sean Baker tied Disney for most Oscar wins in one night at the 97th Academy Awards. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 2.70% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.21%. On 03/03/2025, TSMC announced plans to invest $100 billion in U.S. chip manufacturing. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 1.78% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.16%. On 03/07/2025, Nikola Jokić made NBA history, recording the league’s first ever 30-point, 20-rebound, 20-assist game. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 1.01% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.30%. On 03/13/2025, it was the five-year anniversary of Trump declaring COVID a national emergency in the United States. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -2.79% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.27%. On 03/14/2025, Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada’s new Prime Minister, replacing Justin Trudeau after nine years. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -0.95% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.31%. On 03/18/2025, Google announced its agreement to acquire cybersecurity firm Wiz for $32 billion, its largest acquisition ever. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -0.76% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.28%. On 03/21/2025, Germany’s major fiscal reform was approved by amending the constitution to allow increased defense spending. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -0.29% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.25%. On 03/28/2025, CoreWeave raised $1.5 billion in its IPO, marking the biggest AI-cloud IPO. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -1.76% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.25%. On 03/29/2025, the New York Yankees set a franchise record for home runs in a single game against the Milwaukee Brewers. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -1.76% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.25%. On 04/02/2025, Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs: 10% baseline tariffs and additional duties on select countries. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -0.83% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.13%. On 04/06/2025, Alex Ovechkin surpassed Wayne Gretzky’s record to become the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -12.16% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.18%. On 04/09/2025, Trump increased tariffs on China to 125%, but paused new tariffs on every other country for 90 days. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -6.08% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.33%. On 04/11/2025, the University of Michigan’s one-year ahead inflation expectations increased to 6.7%, the highest level since 1981. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -5.88% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.49%. On 04/14/2025, Nvidia announced plans to produce up to $500 billion worth of AI infrastructure in the United States over four years. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -4.64% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.37%. On 04/15/2025, Katy Perry went to space as part of an all-female crew on a Blue Origin New Shepard rocket flight. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -4.40% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.33%. On 04/21/2025, EURUSD broke 1.15 for the first time since 2021. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -7.21% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.41%. On 04/27/2025, Liverpool defeated Tottenham Hotspur 5-1 to win its second Premier League title. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -1.65% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.24%. On 04/30/2025, 5-10 year inflation expectations reached their highest level since the 1990s. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -0.63% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.16%. On 04/30/2025, Microsoft reported its best-ever quarterly revenue and profit totals, generating $70.1 billion in revenue. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned -0.63% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.16%. On 05/03/2025, Sovereignty won the 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 1.26% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.31%. On 05/08/2025, Leo XIV was elected as the new pope, becoming the first North American to hold the position. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 0.81% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.38%. On 05/13/2025, Saudi Arabia announced a $600 billion investment in the United States. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 3.90% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.47%. On 05/15/2025, the United Arab Emirates announced plans to invest $1.4 trillion in the United States over the next 10 years. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 4.40% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.43%. On 05/17/2025, Crystal Palace won its first-ever major trophy, defeating Manchester City 1-0 in the FA Cup final. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 4.94% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.48%. On 05/22/2025, the House of Representatives narrowly passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 3.79% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.53%. On 05/28/2025, Elon Musk left the Trump administration, saying that his “scheduled time” was coming to an end. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 4.51% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.48%. On 05/31/2025, Paris Saint-Germain defeated Inter Milan 5-0 to win its first Champions League title. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 4.97% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.40%. On 06/01/2025, Ukraine launched Operation Spiderweb, a series of 1,777 drone attacks on Russia, causing $7 billion in damage. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 4.97% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.40%. On 06/13/2025, Israel launched surprise attacks on key military and nuclear facilities in Iran. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 5.95% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.40%. On 06/19/2025, the Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate to 0%. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 5.60% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.39%. On 06/22/2025, the U.S. Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran as part of the Iran-Israel conflict. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 5.46% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.38%. On 06/23/2025, Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Texas, a major milestone for autonomous EV deployment. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 6.08% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.35%. On 06/25/2025, NATO allies agreed to a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP annually by 2035. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 7.22% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.29%. On 06/26/2025, Anna Wintour stepped down as the editor-in-chief of American Vogue. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 8.09% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.24%. On 06/26/2025, the BEA’s estimate for GDP showed a 0.5% contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1, the first decline since 2022. On that day, the MSCI World Index returned 8.09% year-to-date, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.24%.
This table lists 50 important events that took place during the first six months of 2025 in chronological order. The events are as follows: Los Angeles experienced the most destructive wildfire in its history China announced a record trade surplus of $990 billion, producing a third of the world’s manufactured goods Israel-Hamas ceasefire came into effect in Gaza as the first Israeli hostages were released TikTok was banned in the United States for approximately 12 hours Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States for a second term, with JD Vance sworn in as Vice President Trump officially created the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk Venture Global’s IPO raised $1.75 billion, which was the largest U.S. IPO to date DeepSeek, a Chinese rival to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, was introduced, causing a sharp decline in the Nasdaq Nvidia’s value fell by $588.8 billion, the most a stock has ever lost in a single day Trump signed an executive order: 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter won a Grammy for Album of the Year, and Kendrick Lamar won Grammys for Song and Record of the Year Amazon said it planned to boost its capital expenditures to $100 billion for the year The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 to win Super Bowl LIX Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports OpenAI launched GPT-4.5, its largest and best model for chat yet Anora director Sean Baker tied Disney for most Oscar wins (four) in one night at the 97th Academy Awards TSMC announced plans to invest $100 billion in U.S. chip manufacturing Nikola Jokić maked NBA history, recording the league’s first ever 30-point, 20-rebound, 20-assist game It was the five-year anniversary of Trump declaring COVID a national emergency in the United States Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada’s new Prime Minister, replacing Justin Trudeau after nine years Google announced its agreement to acquire cybersecurity firm Wiz for $32 billion, its largest acquisition ever Germany’s major fiscal reform was approved by amending the constitution to allow increased defense spending CoreWeave raised $1.5 billion in its IPO, marking the biggest AI-cloud IPO ever The New York Yankees set a franchise record for home runs in a single game against the Milwaukee Brewers Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs: 10% baseline tariffs and significant duties on select countries Alex Ovechkin surpassed Wayne Gretzky’s record to become the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer Trump increased tariffs on China to 125%, but paused new tariffs on every other country for 90 days The University of Michigan’s one-year ahead inflation expectations increased to 6.7%, the highest level since 1981 Nvidia announced plans to produce up to $500 billion worth of AI infrastructure in the United States over four years Katy Perry went to space as part of an all-female crew on a Blue Origin New Shepard rocket flight The EURUSD rallied past 1.15 for the first time since 2021 Liverpool defeated Tottenham Hotspur 5-1 to clinch its second Premier League title 5-10 year inflation expectations reached their highest level since the 1990s Microsoft reported its best-ever quarterly revenue and profit totals, generating $70.1 billion in revenue Sovereignty won the 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby Leo XIV was elected as the new pope, becoming the first North American to hold the position Saudi Arabia announced a $600 billion investment in the United States The United Arab Emirates announced plans to invest $1.4 trillion in the United States over the next 10 years Crystal Palace won its first-ever major trophy, defeating Manchester City 1-0 in the FA Cup final The House of Representatives narrowly passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act Elon Musk left the Trump administration, saying that his “scheduled time” was coming to an end Paris Saint-Germain defeated Inter Milan 5-0 to win its first Champions League title Ukraine launched Operation Spiderweb, a series of 1,777 drone attacks on Russia, causing $7 billion in damage Israel launched surprise attacks on key military and nuclear facilities in Iran The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate to 0% The U.S. Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran as part of the Iran-Israel conflict Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Texas, a major milestone for autonomous EV deployment NATO allies agreed to a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP annually by 2035 Anna Wintour stepped down as the editor-in-chief of American Vogue The BEA’s estimate for GDP showed a 0.5% contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1, the first decline since 2022
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