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Investment Strategy 3 minutes

President Biden bows out of the election

What the change at the top of the Democratic ticket might mean for investors.

After weeks of growing calls from Democrats to step aside, President Biden has officially dropped out of the 2024 election. A tip of the hat to our own Michael Cembalest for introducing this possibility in our client dialogues much earlier: see his November 2023 Eye on the Market and the “Top Ten Surprises” section of his 2024 Outlook.

So, now what? While there are still a few unknowns, the possible path forward is that the Democratic National Convention to be held from August 19 to 22 will be an “open” one, meaning delegates would be legally free to vote for whomever they want. Still, prediction markets and most commentary, including President Biden’s endorsement, suggest Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Vice President Harris is favorite to win the Democratic election bid

Implied odds to win the Democratic nomination

Source: Tax Foundation, J.P. Morgan. Views as of July 20, 2024.
From a campaign and policy perspective, we don’t expect Harris’s platform to differ much from Biden’s (see the below overview). However, we do think it could make the election more competitive once again.
Source: Tax Foundation, J.P. Morgan. Views as of July 20, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

What does this mean for investors?

  1. Markets don't like uncertainty, and some of the strength in risk assets through the summer was likely due to the increased likelihood of a Republican sweep. We wouldn't be surprised to see more turbulence as the presidential race evolves.
  2. Focus on what stays the same. Spending on security is likely to continue no matter the outcome of the elections, which is why the resulting infrastructure build is one of our highest conviction ideas. Likewise, the national debt and deficit will likely remain on a challenging trajectory under either party, which emphasizes the need to focus on tax efficiency in portfolios.

All market and economic data as of July 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

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  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.
  • Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.​
  • The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to "stock market risk" meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.​

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All market and economic data as of July 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.

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