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3 considerations for investing in a bull market

This summer, we are seeing a green wave in markets despite a recent bout of political volatility. The S&P 500 has returned more than 6% since the end of May and has made almost 40 all-time highs this year. So why are the bulls having their time in the sun?

To start, inflation is no longer threatening. Last week’s U.S. CPI report showed that headline inflation was negative in June for the first time since May 2020 (meaning prices actually decreased). Even some of the stickiest items such as shelter costs finally slowed. Meanwhile, growth has cooled (but is not cold), and the labor market has normalized. That follows a string of softer inflation prints across the developed world – setting the scene for more central banks to join the rate cut party in the second half of the year.

We understand that it can feel difficult to get invested or stick to your plan when equity markets are rallying fast. In this week’s note, we take three lessons from our analysis that help us embrace the rally.

3 considerations for investing in this bull market

1. This rally is justified. Here’s why:

  • Innovation is driving profits. It should no longer be a surprise to investors that the rise of AI has been a primary contributor to market performance. While the first leg of the AI rally has involved mostly hyperscalers (AMZN, META, MSFT, GOOGL) and semiconductor manufacturers (NVDA), an increasing number of other AI winners are emerging. Companies dedicated to the infrastructure buildout, such as data center REITs, energy storage and electrification, have posted an impressive average return of almost 30% year-to-date. Look no further than materials technology company Corning. Last week, their earnings beat investor expectations, with demand for generative AI products cited as a key driver. The stock is now up almost 50% this year. The momentum seems real. Given that less than 5% of U.S. companies are actively using AI (according to Census Bureau data), the runway could last for years to come.
  • Cuts are coming home. Football might not have come home, but interest rate cuts do look to be on the way. That process is already under way in some places like Europe and Switzerland. In the U.S., between last week’s CPI data and Chair Powell’s congressional testimony, it seems like the Fed is finally ready to join the global easing cycle. For the UK, inflation has already fallen to 2% (albeit with some stickiness under the hood) and the Bank of England has signalled its intent to reduce policy restrictiveness. On the whole, the orderly normalization of inflation and growth globally supports the idea that a gradual cutting cycle isn’t too far away. This should be good for stocks. Since 1985, five of the best 10 years for the S&P 500 came when the Fed lowered rates outside of a recession.

The most pertinent historical analog to the current environment might be 1995. Then, the Fed achieved a soft landing just as the market was beginning to appreciate the new wave of excitement around the personal computer and the internet (Netscape IPO’d in August 1995).

2. Bull markets can last for a long time. The median bull market lasts 46 months (about three times longer than the average bear market). The S&P 500’s current bull run is only 21 months old. Time is one thing; returns are another. The median bull market total return is 110%. The current bull market total return is only 50% as of the end of June.

If this bull market merely matches the median, it could last another two years with the potential for an additional ~60% cumulative return. Given the strength of the market over the last nine months, we aren’t surprised that some investors are feeling “rally fatigue” or think the market is due for a correction. But history indicates that time is on the bull’s side.

3. S&P 10,000? Could be sooner than you think. Trends such as equity returns are not a good reason to sit on the sideline. Our 2024 J.P. Morgan Asset Management Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions project a 7% return for large-cap stocks over the next 10–15 years. While that may seem like a far cry from the 28% total returns we have seen over the last year, a 7% annual return would imply that the S&P 500 will hit the 10,000 mark in less than a decade (we are trading around 5,600 today).

Don’t let all-time highs get in the way either. The market has made an all-time high in one out of four trading sessions this year. While some investors are reticent to “buy high,” the data suggests that investing at highs has not notably impacted returns. Actually, over the last 50 years, investors were better off getting invested at an all-time high than they were on any other day.

While there could be volatility on the road ahead, history proves to investors the importance of staying invested. A globally diversified portfolio should act as the core, with other opportunities helping to grow and preserve wealth across a range of outcomes. For example, equity markets outside the U.S. have not run quite as hard and fast – that creates a wider-than-usual valuation discount in Europe. Meanwhile, pockets of real asset markets (like infrastructure and commodities) should act as a ballast in the event that disinflation progress stalls or reverses.

Your J.P. Morgan team is here to help.

 

All market and economic data as of July 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

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  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
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  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.
  • Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.​
  • The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to "stock market risk" meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.​
Stocks are up big time year-to-date. That doesn’t mean you should wait on the sidelines.

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Important Information
  • Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities. The value of commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Investing in commodities creates an opportunity for increased return but, at the same time, creates the possibility for greater loss.​
  • The S&P 500 index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

 

JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. 

“Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control. 

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