Investment Strategy

Gilts under pressure: Why the sell-off has gone too far

U.K. government bonds have suffered their sharpest sell-off in years. Two-year gilt yields surged by over 100 basis points in March alone, pushing back above 4% for the first time since October, while 10-year yields have hit their highest level since 2008. Short- and medium-dated gilts have underperformed against their French, German and United States counterparts by a wide margin, and markets have swung from pricing Bank of England rate cuts to pricing in possible hikes.

The catalyst: a rapidly escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has triggered what the IEA has called the largest oil supply disruption in history, with over 10 million barrels per day lost in March. Natural gas prices spiked, especially in Europe, and Brent crude briefly topped $118 per barrel, sending inflation expectations—and bond yields—spiralling higher across developed markets. Given its heavy reliance on imported energy, the U.K. bore the brunt of these shocks.

In this article, we dig into the recent volatility, explore why we believe the sell-off has overshot and make the case that disinflationary growth—not runaway inflation—should be the primary concern from here.

UK energy shock: More growth risk than inflation risk (unlike 2022)

Markets have drawn parallels to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy shock, when surging prices pushed U.K. CPI to a peak of 11.1%. But this comparison breaks down quickly. In 2022, the shock hit an economy running hot; with unemployment at 3.5%, vacancies at record highs and firms competing aggressively for workers. Today, unemployment has risen to 5.2% and is forecast to climb further, while services hiring has contracted for 17 consecutive months.

The nature of the shock is also more acute. The U.K. imports over half its gas and relies heavily on Gulf-sourced LNG and refined products. A sustained disruption wouldn't just push prices higher—it could directly curtail output in an economy with far less resilience to absorb the blow.

The United Kingdom has again underperformed its peers by a wide margin, reflecting its greater energy import dependence and the fact that the country’s inflation was already the highest among G7 economies before the conflict began. But unlike 2022, the balance of risks tilts more clearly toward disinflationary growth than runaway inflation—a distinction gilt markets have yet to price in.

Where we see opportunity

The surge in gilt yields has taken the yield premium relative to U.S. Treasuries to one of its widest levels since the financial crisis. For U.K. taxpayers in particular, the back-up presents a compelling opportunity given the exemption from capital gains tax on government bonds. A gilt maturing in the mid-2030s, issued at a near-zero coupon, may now offer a gross equivalent yield in excess of 7%. The gross equivalent yield represents the current market yield adjusted for the investor's tax rate. This is calculated by subtracting the Bond Yield from the tax rate multiplied by the coupon, then dividing the result by 0.55. For example, a gilt maturing in 2035 with a coupon of 0.625% and a yield of 4.71% would produce a gross equivalent yield of approximately 8.05%. This represents the pre-tax return a higher-rate taxpayer would need to earn on a taxable investment to match the after-tax return on the gilt.

More broadly, we see value in adding duration selectively—particularly in the short to intermediate part of the curve (five years and under), where the repricing has been most extreme. This is where bonds stand to benefit most if the Bank of England is ultimately forced to cut, rather than hike, as the growth outlook deteriorates.

Finally, the current environment—where an energy supply shock is simultaneously driving inflation fears and recession risk—is a clear reminder that stocks and bonds may not exhibit the negative correlation investors have come to rely on. Less correlated assets like gold, commodities and infrastructure deserve consideration to boost portfolio resilience as the conflict and its economic fallout continue to unfold.

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Continued deterioration in macroeconomic conditions could lead to poor liquidity in the name, lower price and/or credit downgrades. All securities mentioned below are potentially subject to significant mark to market volatility based on movements in either the interest rate or credit markets at any time. Note: All pricing and yields are subject to change at any time based on market conditions.  Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment, and reinvestment risk.

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U.K. gilt yields have surged amid an energy-driven inflation shock, but we believe the sell-off has overshot and see selective opportunities in short-to-intermediate maturities as disinflationary growth risks rise.

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