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2025 unpacked: What’s worked, what’s next

  Key takeaways:

  • Nearly all major asset classes have posted gains in 2025, with gold, equities, and credit all benefiting from easier financial conditions and AI-driven momentum. This broad rally allows for genuine diversification and flexibility in portfolios.
  • Despite tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the longest US government shutdown on record, the economy has weathered multiple shocks. Strong profit margins, a steady labour market, and robust consumer spending have helped sustain growth and improve forecasts.
  • AI continues to drive market returns and open new opportunities, with investment and productivity gains spreading well beyond technology. The buildout of data centres and infrastructure is fuelling growth across sectors, offering investors fresh avenues for participation.

As December nears, hindsight makes it clear: 2025 has rewarded conviction.

Markets have snapped back from the edge of a bear market, with the S&P 500 notching 36 new highs year-to-date. And while big tech has led the charge, the rally has broadened—fuelled by easier money, economic resilience, and a global wave of future-focused investment. Gold, equities, and credit have all joined the rally, delivering real diversification in a world that refuses to sit still.

With the new year approaching, it’s a natural moment to pause—and, in a year met with so many challenges, to take stock of what has gone right. Looking back on a year that nearly went off course, three themes stand out:

  1. The “everything rally” that has rewarded diversification
  2. The underlying durability of the economy
  3. The momentum from innovation and future-focused investment

Below, we unpack each.

1. The “everything rally”

2025 has been the year when almost everything has worked. Diversification has been reality, not just theory. Gold has soared on geopolitical jitters and falling yields. Ex-US equities have outperformed. US stocks have surged too—tech has led the charge, but financials, cyclicals, and small caps have also joined the winners’ circle.

This “everything rally” has been the product of a rare—and somewhat counterintuitive—alignment. Persistent worries about geopolitics, policy uncertainty, and sticky inflation have kept investors cautious and prevented markets from overheating. Yet those same risks have prompted central banks to favour easier policy, while corporate earnings have proved resilient and safe-haven flows have boosted assets such as gold.

The result: even with uncertainty dominating the headlines, the environment has proved constructive. And, in turn, rather than being forced into a single big bet, investors have had flexibility—finding opportunity across asset classes, regions, and styles. It’s also a reminder: cash on the sidelines has faced a tougher test. Opportunity has favoured those willing to stay invested and lean into areas of conviction.

The “everything rally”

Year-to-date total return, %

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as at 24 November 2025. Note: Gold represented by the XAU/USD spot exchange rate. Global 60/40 allocation represented by the Bloomberg Global EQ:FI 60:40 Index. Global aggregate bonds represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index. Treasury bills represented by the Bloomberg US Treasury Bill Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

2. Economic durability

The economy has faced a series of gauntlets. DeepSeek kicked off the year by shaking up AI leadership, then Liberation Day sent tariffs soaring to their highest in nearly a century and recession odds doubled. As trade tensions finally began to ease, fresh conflict in the Middle East reignited volatility. Add the longest US government shutdown on record and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty as Russia-Ukraine peace talks drag on—the outlook isn’t free of pressure points.

Yet the economy’s shock absorbers have held firm. Companies have manoeuvred through higher tariff costs thanks to strong profit margins. Household balance sheets are solid and growing. The labour market has cooled, but redundancies haven’t spiked. In September, the US unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, but job growth was double what economists expected. The jobs market has bent, but not broken—and with the Fed still cutting rates, stability looks within reach for 2026.

In the second half of the year, the outlook has continued to improve. Back in the spring, consensus saw US GDP growth for 2025 at just 1.4%—half the pace of 2024’s 2.8%. Since then, expectations have done a U-turn, with consensus now at 1.9%. Consumer spending—the backbone of the economy—has also surprised to the upside. US holiday sales are on track to top $1 trillion, which would set a new record and close out a turbulent year on a high note.

The economy has fared better than analysts had predicted

U.S. GDP year-over-year growth rate, %

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as at 24 November 2025. Note: May and November expectations use Bloomberg Consensus forecasts.

3. The AI innovation cycle

AI hasn’t just driven returns in 2025—it’s opened new doors. Companies harnessing its potential have delivered nearly 75% of S&P 500 gains, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending. AI is powering real results—boosting productivity, new business models, and investment across unexpected corners of the market.

And the momentum still appears to be in its early stages. US tech giants are expected to spend $500 billion a year on AI by 2026, up from $150 billion in 2023. Our investment bank highlights that the global buildout of data centres and infrastructure could top $5 trillion, with some estimates reaching $7 trillion. Private markets shouldn’t be overlooked. As tech firms stay private longer and scale up, this is where tomorrow’s leaders are taking shape—and where investors can get in early on the next wave of innovation.

Crucially, AI’s reach now extends well beyond Silicon Valley. The innovation cycle is sparking a renaissance across industries—healthcare, energy, logistics, manufacturing, and more. Data centers and infrastructure are now among the biggest forces behind US capital spending, sending ripple effects through power markets, real estate, networking, HVAC, and semiconductors.

The takeaway: AI is broadening the opportunity set for investors. We think it’s crucial to look across the entire ecosystem—think globally and across sectors.

What it means for you

Looking ahead to 2026, our outlook is shaped by both Promise and Pressure: the promise of innovation, resilience, and new opportunities, and the pressure of a fragmenting world order and more volatile inflation. We remain optimistic about what’s possible, and we’re committed to helping you make the most of it.

KEY RISKS

All market and economic data as of December 2025 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

 

Important Information

  • Nearly all major asset classes have posted gains in 2025, with gold, equities, and credit all benefiting from easier financial conditions and AI-driven momentum. This broad rally allows for genuine diversification and flexibility in portfolios.
  • Despite tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the longest US government shutdown on record, the economy has weathered multiple shocks. Strong profit margins, a steady labour market, and robust consumer spending have helped sustain growth and improve forecasts.
  • AI continues to drive market returns and open new opportunities, with investment and productivity gains spreading well beyond technology. The buildout of data centres and infrastructure is fuelling growth across sectors, offering investors fresh avenues for participation.

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Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

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Reflecting on a broad-based rally, a resilient economy, and a powerful innovation cycle.
Published Dec 1, 2025

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