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60/40, reinvented: 3 reasons to consider alternatives

  Key takeaways:

  • Macro uncertainty demands flexibility – Persistent inflation, fiscal risks, and political dysfunction challenge the reliability of the 60/40 portfolio, necessitating a broader toolkit.
  • Alternatives can help build resilience – Hedge funds and core infrastructure can help diversify, hedge against inflation, and provide durable returns when bonds and equities move in tandem.
  • Innovation is shifting to private markets – With mega-cap concentration in public equities, some of the most transformative growth opportunities—particularly in AI and deep technology—are emerging in private markets.
  • Deal flow is rebounding – Easing financial conditions and increased IPO activity signal a healthier exit environment for private equity and venture capital.

Markets paused last week—but the economy did not.

Following the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025, equities dipped, yields rose, and the dollar strengthened—a pause after a record-breaking rally.

Nevertheless, economic data remained robust. US GDP growth for the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, above the 3.3% expected, driven by resilient consumer spending. While some question how long this can continue as the labour market cools, jobless claims also fell for a second consecutive week—suggesting that, although the economy may be showing signs of strain, it is far from collapse.

This combination of solid growth, a softening labour market, and persistent inflation keeps the Fed data-dependent, though still inclined towards further cuts. Markets are pricing in one or two more this year—and we agree.

While we continue to view a global 60/40 stock/bond portfolio allocation as a reliable core, rising macro uncertainty—from tariffs to debt concerns and US government shutdown fears—is prompting investors to seek more resilient returns.

As we conclude our Fed-cutting playbook series—embracing carry in fixed income, the potential of risk assets, and the importance of global diversification—we turn to one final lever: alternatives for durable return. Here are three reasons why.

1) Sticky inflation and fiscal risks require a broader toolkit

The traditional 60/40 portfolio rests on a key assumption: when equities fall, bonds rise, providing a natural hedge. However, in 2022, both sank as inflation surged. With inflation still stubborn and fiscal pressures mounting, some fear a repeat of this dynamic.

It is an understandable concern: long-term bond yields have risen globally this year, driven in part by persistent inflation and widening deficits. Recently, markets were laser-focused on how the Fed intends to manage conflicting signals from growth and inflation. This week, attention shifts to Congress, where lawmakers face a midnight deadline tomorrow, 30 September, to avoid a government shutdown. While a resolution is likely—even if it comes after the deadline—even a brief lapse would underscore how political dysfunction is contributing to fiscal risk.

This is also a global phenomenon. In France, budget disputes have triggered political instability. In the UK, rising debt is under increasing scrutiny and is expected to dominate the upcoming Autumn Budget, while the Bank of England recently paused its rate cuts, with inflation still above 3% despite a weakening labour market.

Our take: Navigating today’s macro environment calls for a broader asset allocation toolkit. We continue to like bonds—especially short- and medium-term maturities, which are less exposed to interest rate volatility—for carry and defence as central banks ease. But alternatives can be powerful tools for diversifying and building resilience across market conditions. Two stand out:

  • Hedge funds: Designed to navigate shifts in interest rates, currencies, and volatility. A 60/30/10 portfolio—with 10% allocated to hedge funds—has outperformed the traditional 60/40 in approximately 70% of years over the past decade, and in every year since 2021.1
  • Core infrastructure: Supported by inflation-linked, long-term cash flows. With the potential for annualised returns of 8–12% across different inflation regimes, infrastructure can provide income and resilience.2

2) Much innovation is taking place in private markets

With mega-cap stocks driving most of the returns this year, public markets are getting more concentrated. The top ten companies now make up about 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation. While we think earnings support justifies much of this, it still raises concentration risk.

At the same time, many of the most exciting long-term opportunities—especially in AI and deep tech—are emerging in private markets. Companies are staying private for longer, scaling up before IPO, and raising big sums without listing.

Consider this: the median tech IPO today is a company that’s 14 years old with $220 million in annual revenue. Back in the late 1990s, it was closer to seven years and less than $20 million. Google went public at a $23 billion valuation and now tops $3 trillion. Private firms like SpaceX, ByteDance, and OpenAI would already rank among the top 30 S&P 500 companies—if they were public.

Our take: Limiting exposure to public markets risks missing the next wave of growth. Private equity may offer access earlier in the value creation cycle.

Private capital is playing an increasingly important role in innovation. Global private equity assets are expected to reach $25 trillion—for context, that is close to 70% of the NASDAQ’s market capitalisation—providing deep pools of capital. In the US, around 60% of venture exits now occur through mergers or secondary sales rather than IPOs. Founders are increasingly opting for private ownership, valuing its long-term focus and reduced public scrutiny and regulatory burden. And in fast-moving fields like AI, where the most disruptive companies may not even exist yet, having patient, flexible capital is more important than ever.

3) Dealmaking is finally seeing signs of life

Private equity has struggled since 2022, with weak fundraising and underperformance compared to public markets—but green shoots are starting to appear.

Financial conditions have eased: rates are falling, spreads have narrowed, markets are stabilising, and volatility has dropped—conditions that typically support deal flow. We estimate that today’s environment could deliver around a 50-basis-point boost to US GDP over the next year. Not huge, but enough to lift sentiment and help extend the cycle.

So far this year, over 220 IPOs have been announced in the US, and globally, that number rises to more than 1,100. Markets are taking notice: the US IPO Index has risen 11% since the end of June, outperforming the S&P 500’s 4% gain.

Our take: Looser financial conditions set the stage for more deals, higher valuations, and stronger market performance—a trend we expect to continue.

For private equity and venture capital, we think this may create a more attractive exit window: portfolio companies can go public at higher valuations with stronger aftermarket support, and strategic buyers benefit from cheaper financing, making it easier to sell businesses to other companies.

What it means for you

In today’s environment of persistent inflation, fiscal risks, elevated stock-bond correlations, and concentrated public markets, investors may strengthen portfolio resilience by going beyond the traditional 60/40 asset mix.

We see opportunities in alternatives—not only as a source of diversification, but also as a way to tap into long-term secular trends and take advantage of renewed dealmaking momentum as financial conditions continue to ease.

1 60/40 portfolio represented by 60% Bloomberg Developed Markets Large & Mid Cap Total Return Index and 40% Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index. 60/30/10 portfolio by comparison is represented by of 60% Bloomberg Developed Markets Large & Mid Cap Total Return Index, 30% Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, and 10% HFRI FOF Diversified Index.

2 J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Guide to Alternatives 3Q 2025.

KEY RISKS

All market and economic data as of September 2025 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
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  • Bloomberg Developed Markets Large & Mid Cap Total Return Index: Tracks the performance of large and mid-cap equities across developed markets, reflecting total returns including dividends.
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  • Bloomberg US IPO Index: Tracks the performance of recently listed US companies that have completed initial public offerings. Aims to reflect market activity and sentiment for new listings.
  • HFRI FOF Diversified Index: Represents the returns of hedge fund of funds portfolios that invest across a broad range of hedge fund strategies, aiming for diversification and risk management.
  • S&P 500 Index: Represents 500 major US companies, weighted by market capitalisation. It serves as a key benchmark for the US stock market.

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Sticky inflation and fiscal strains pose challenges—but private markets and alternatives are creating new avenues for resilience and growth.
Published Sep 29, 2025

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