Investment Strategy

Wall of worry? Markets are climbing it anyway

Key takeaways:

Markets are tuning out the noise and focusing on fundamentals. Despite trade and fiscal headlines, investors seem to be betting against the worst outcomes, keeping their eyes on earnings, still-solid growth, and a data-driven Fed.
Fear-based selling hasn’t worked. After a 19% drop in March, a 25% rally has rewarded those who’ve stayed invested and punished those who’ve panicked.
AI is more than hype—it's fuelling capital. Nvidia's ascent to a $4 trillion market cap and the surge in AI-related infrastructure spending show that markets are prioritizing innovation over headlines.
Stay constructive, stay prepared. We're optimistic but selective, diversifying globally and managing risk with structured notes, gold, hedge funds, and infrastructure.

You might expect the market to be under more pressure after a week of bold tariff threats and major fiscal moves.

Instead, markets have barely stumbled.

The S&P 500 reached fresh all-time highs last week. Treasury yields and the dollar just ticked higher. Fed rate cut expectations remained fairly steady. And in Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose on the week and is just modestly lower as trading opens on Monday.

Tariffs captured most of the attention. President Trump delayed his ‘reciprocal’ tariff deadline for a second time to 1 August, then threatened new sector-specific levies—50% on copper, 200% on pharmaceuticals. By Friday, the rhetoric had broadened to blanket 15–20% tariffs on key trading partners. Over the weekend, that escalated again with a fresh 30% tariff threat on the European Union (EU) and Mexico.

All this also followed news that the U.S. administration signed its long-awaited One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA) into law, delivering $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in spending reductions—yet also an estimated $3.4 trillion increase in the deficit, stoking fiscal concerns.

Through it all, the market kept its footing. Why?

Here are three things we think the market is telling us.

1. Fundamentals matter more than noise

Investors aren’t ignoring risks—they just think they’ve seen this playbook before.

The latest tariff volley points to a U.S. rate of 15–20%, double the current 8% and well above the 2.5% at the start of the year. Yet, since Liberation Day, stocks have reacted less to each new announcement, suggesting investors see this as negotiation pressure for dealmaking, not a derailment. We still expect the effective rate to land around 10–15%—enough to pressure growth and inflation, but likely not enough to trigger a recession.

Stocks are less stressed with each new tariff headline

Trade war 'event' days in 2025, S&P 500 daily price return, %

Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of 9 July 2025. Trade war 'event' days per PIIE timeline. S&P 500 performance evaluated using trading days closest to the relevant event. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Some targeted markets have moved more, but even those reactions seem limited. Copper prices jumped on the proposed 50% tariff, then quickly retraced a portion of those gains. Given the U.S. depends on imports of the commodity and can’t ramp up domestic supply quickly, full implementation looks unlikely.

We’re also seeing more adaptation than strain. Instead of retaliating to the weekend news, the EU is reportedly strengthening ties with other countries to offset potential tariff fallout. Companies are likewise stockpiling inventories and continuing capital expenditure efforts—even with uncertainty—heading into Q2 earnings reporting season.

Fiscal headlines last week followed the same pattern. The $3.4 trillion OBBBA U.S. deficit estimate made noise but didn’t rattle markets. The big number was largely expected, and it doesn’t include potential offsets like tariff revenue or enforcement savings. Our view: the net impact—excluding interest—is more manageable than the headline implies.

Markets seem to be asking what’s actually changed. Without real follow-through, investors are sticking to the bigger picture—seemingly resilient growth, solid earnings, and a Fed ready to ease. That doesn’t suggest complacency—it signals perspective, shaped by risks that may feel louder, not newer.

2. Herd-following isn’t being rewarded—and seldom is

This year has shown—again—that following the crowd can backfire. In early spring, recession odds spiked, sentiment fell, and the S&P 500 dropped 19%. But three months later, U.S. stocks have rallied more than 25% from those lows, hitting five new all-time highs and leaving reactive sellers behind.

It’s a familiar pattern. In the 20th anniversary edition of Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest, our Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, reflects on 584 editions since 2005. One clear lesson: markets rarely reward fear-based decision-making. He highlights the rise of Armageddonists—market-watchers, forecasters, and fund managers whose apocalyptic warnings often spread like wildfire during moments of stress. History shows that investors who have acted on those calls—shifting from stocks to bonds and staying there—have consistently faced significant, lasting underperformance.

The consequences of listening to the Armageddonists

Performance impact of reallocating $1 from the S&P 500 Index to Bloomberg’s Aggregate Bond Index, from the week of the Armageddonist comment, 2010-2019

Sources: Michael Cembalest, ‘Eye on the Market, 20th Anniversary Edition’, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of 8 November 2019. Analysis utilises weekly S&P 500 Index and Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

This year’s rebound has reinforced that. Investors who resisted the rush to reposition were rewarded for staying invested when it felt uncomfortable to do so.

Those who have taken steps to diversify, rather than sell, have also been rewarded. In 2025, USD-based investors in European equities are up over 25% year-to-date, well ahead of the S&P 500’s 7% return (as of Friday’s close)—fueled by shifting optimism around fiscal stimulus in Europe, a narrowing valuation gap, and currency dynamics.

More often than not, investors have been rewarded for not chasing the herd.

3. Innovation is real, durable, and powerful

Policy headlines may be dominating the news, but markets seem to be following the capital—and it’s flowing into AI. Last week, Nvidia became the first company ever to reach a $4 trillion market cap.

Now investors are watching for the AI boom to show up in margins. Analysts are already adjusting near-term earnings estimates lower as big tech absorbs the depreciation costs of massive AI infrastructure buildouts. But markets aren’t treating that as a red flag—the price action suggests more focus on the larger structural shift than a potential temporary drag.

That view is being reinforced by what companies are actually doing:

AI adoption is accelerating. AI current and expected utilization have doubled in the U.S. over the past year, according to Census Bureau data. Hyperscaler spending—Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon—is still ramping up, even after the DeepSeek scare and ongoing tariff uncertainty.
Software priorities are growing—and shifting. Microsoft is cutting 15,000 jobs and slowing engineering hires as it pivots to AI-led automation. Similarly, Meta now expects AI to write most of the code for its LLaMA projects within 12 to 18 months.
The global race is on. China said it plans to deploy 115,000 Nvidia chips in new desert-based data centres, despite U.S. chip restrictions. Meta is investing over $1 billion in a new AI lab, pulling top talent from OpenAI, DeepMind, and Apple.

The message: Companies are spending now, and they’re afraid of being left behind. The market is taking that seriously.

What it means for you

Stocks continue to climb the wall of worry, with investor focus rooted in fundamentals. Unless pressure builds in a meaningful way—for instance, through a return to ultra-high Liberation Day rates or a clear economic slowdown—markets appear anchored by underlying strength.

That keeps us constructive. But it doesn’t mean volatility won’t resurface. This calls for thoughtful asset allocation and disciplined risk management. To stay prepared and build more resilient portfolios, we remain focused on global diversification across regions and sectors, along with strategies such as structured notes and exposure to gold, hedge funds, and infrastructure.

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Wall of worry? Markets are climbing it anyway

1. Fundamentals matter more than noise

Stocks are less stressed with each new tariff headline

Trade war 'event' days in 2025, S&P 500 daily price return, %

2. Herd-following isn’t being rewarded—and seldom is

The consequences of listening to the Armageddonists

Performance impact of reallocating $1 from the S&P 500 Index to Bloomberg’s Aggregate Bond Index, from the week of the Armageddonist comment, 2010-2019

3. Innovation is real, durable, and powerful

What it means for you

KEY RISKS

Important Information

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Market Thoughts: To infinity and beyond!

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What's Trending

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locate an office

offices near you

office near you

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Wall of worry? Markets are climbing it anyway

1. Fundamentals matter more than noise

Stocks are less stressed with each new tariff headline

Trade war 'event' days in 2025, S&P 500 daily price return, %

2. Herd-following isn’t being rewarded—and seldom is

The consequences of listening to the Armageddonists

Performance impact of reallocating $1 from the S&P 500 Index to Bloomberg’s Aggregate Bond Index, from the week of the Armageddonist comment, 2010-2019

3. Innovation is real, durable, and powerful

What it means for you

KEY RISKS

Important Information

TAGS

Share

In this article

you may also like

Market Thoughts: To infinity and beyond!

Experience the full possibility of your wealth

Inside the first-half: 30 events, from selloff to snapback

Trending Insights