Investor Day
Unverified Participant
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Please welcome to the stage Mary Callahan Erdoes.
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Mary Callahan Erdoes Chief Executive Officer-Asset & Wealth Management, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
Good morning, everybody. For those of you who I don't know, I'm Mary, I'm CEO of the Asset and Wealth Management business. Welcome to the last Investor Day in this building. We are super excited, thanks to the work of David Arena, and his amazing team, that next year we will be across the street in the first all-electric tower in New York City. So we are really looking forward to that. I always enjoy going through Asset and Wealth Management because for all of you, I think it's really like a microcosm of the whole company in many ways...
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
With the highest returns.
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Mary Callahan Erdoes Chief Executive Officer-Asset & Wealth Management, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
...and the highest returns. Thank you, Jamie. But in so many ways, it's just the center of so many things. We are every day investing in the companies that are taken public by the investment bank. We're helping the CFOs of those companies to invest their liquidity in J.D.'s money market fund business. We're helping the CEOs, including our board members and the like, to think about how they're running their companies and what we can do on their personal balance sheets, taking their 10b5-1 programs, sending them through Troy's trading desks, executing those, or we're taking all the great things in the commercial bank and the leads that they have, and just helping them with simple banking, and figuring that out and actually through Jen's beautiful, Jen Roberts, that is over here on the side, those beautiful branches, that last picture up there, which Marianne didn't mention, are all these new beautiful branches that they have developed.
There are 2,000 private banking clients that walk into those branches every day. So it's a pretty amazing thing for all of us, and we're really looking forward to going through all of this. One thing I just point out, one of you in the room nicely pointed out that asset management is really worth focusing on, because in fact, it can give you a 4 to 6 times multiple lift, and that is if you do it right. Why is that? Because it's a recurring revenue business that's very capital light. And so that is exactly what we have here today. The problem is, it's been very hard for many of our competitors to do that inside of a bank, but our story is very different. So let's take a look here. We are first and foremost a fiduciary. We are the fiduciary arm of the business. We now have over $6 trillion in assets that are entrusted with us from the sovereign wealth funds of the world to the first-time savers that we talked about in the Wealth Management spectrum, when they walk into a branch and they think about investing in the stock market or the bond market.
We are a reliable growth business and so no matter what we do, our North Star is generating alpha. That is all we do all day long. We obsess about every single basis point. And when you see these numbers of these 80% of our mutual funds beating peers over a 10-year time period, 10-year track records don't get made overnight, and every single moment of every single day is focused on that. But to keep that growth going, that third bullet there under investing for growth is the most important for us. We have to keep innovating, and we're going to talk about that through this presentation. There are seven areas that we think will make the difference for the future, and that's what will make up 2025's investment spend, which Jeremy referred to at the beginning. That will be our largest investment spend ever in the history of Asset and Wealth Management. So it's important to focus on.
Why can we have the largest investment spend in our history, because the results speak for themselves here at the bottom. You can see just over the past two years, we've had $1 trillion in new clients giving assets to us, and we have a very healthy 34% margin and a 34% ROE, and that allows us to reinvest back in the business.
And so let's look at those four pillars that Marianne touched on. They are the same four pillars for us. We are complete. We have always been the best private banking business in the world, and arguably, we are now the most sought after active manager in the world. There are more assets flowing to us than anyone else in this space.
We are global. It's not just 150 countries that we help clients in. It is also the on-the-ground research, which is more important today than ever. When you think about the portfolio managers that we have sitting on the ground in Shanghai, they're the ones driving how we think about auto stocks in the US or European retail stocks. And so that becomes very important, particularly in the environment that we live in.
And we're very diversified. You know that we're firing on all cylinders in each region, in each sector, in each channel. But like we heard from Marianne, this is very much like her business, a recurring revenue business. Actually, 73% of our revenues come from recurring revenues. That means we're making money for shareholders 365 days a year.
And we are at scale. In fact, in Asset and Wealth Management, size is not our goal. That is not our primary driver. Our driver is to be the best. If, in fact, you are trying to be the best and you grow, that's the best equation you can have. Now at that very bottom on the far right side, we do have three $1 trillion franchises, that I'm going to walk through.
It's also very important to note this little banner on the bottom, that's how it all happens. It's about talent management, and Robin Leopold, who's right here, who runs the greatest HR department around, along with Nelli Childs, who's our Asset and Wealth Management business, they're the ones that help us to retain 95% of our top talent. That is not an easy thing to do in today's competitive environment, and we do that.
So let's look at the metrics. Each year I show you this page, and these are really our KPIs. This is what makes up what we think are the growth drivers of what's going to happen in the future. And I really want you to think about it as two different businesses. On the left is the asset management business that's run by George Gatch, and on the right is the global private banking business.
On the left we are ranked number five as an overall asset manager, but the number that I focus on is the second one, which is the active management number. We are now number three. And we are closing the gap to number one because of our flows. If you look at these numbers of where we've doubled our assets, it's really come from the work, Andrea Lisher is right here up front. She's runs the North America team across both the retail, funds business there, and the institutional business along with Keith Cahill, who I saw standing right there in the very back. So that is super exciting. And in fact, that number on the bottom, AM client-facing, the 842, that makes us one of the largest sales forces in the industry.
On the right is the business that's run by Dave Frame, the US Private Bank, as well as Adam Tejpaul, who runs our International Private Bank. And those numbers are really quite tremendous. AUS has tripled in the U.S., and international pretty close. If you just look at that clients with $100 million plus, those are the centi-millionaires, that's up 2.6 times over this time period. But really importantly, the number that's most impressive on this page is the one that Marianne touched on, and that is Chase Wealth Management Assets up 3.2 times. Kristin Lemkau, who is over here on the side, along with the great work that she does with her team, Eric Tepper and company, have driven that number to something we never would have imagined.
And that is a question that was actually asked by one of you in the pre-Investor Day questions that you put out in your notes, which was, tell me, how does this actually work, how does the Asset and Wealth Management investments work in the Chase branch, and this is a really important question. It is all run by this man right here, Martin Marron, who runs what we call Wealth Management Solutions. We think it is really important that no matter where you come into this institution, you get the best advice. We don't want anyone to get a different level of (sic) best thinking because of your level of wealth. We want everyone to benefit from JPMorgan's 200 years of investing. And that's why Carla Hassan, who I saw here, who runs our global marketing, came up with that little picture on the right, which is now in every one of these branches that we are doing for these wealth centers that Stevie Baron runs, and it said very simply, bank with Chase and invest with J.P. Morgan.
And in fact that is the equation that is making all of this work. And if you look at the bottom here, you see that, while all of these numbers have been very strong, in the past five years there's been a real inflection in these CAGRs in terms of what we've done in AUS, revenue and pre-tax. And that's what we're going to talk about. And so there are many more opportunities for growth.
The only thing I would just want to say on this page is, this is about the industry. These bars are all about industry growth, and all of them are growing quite nicely. But in every single case, JPMorgan is growing faster than the industry in both revenue. You can see the 16 times for us versus the 10 times in the industry, 12 times for us versus the 6 times in the industry. That was assets and revenue in the middle. And if we just keep doing this, we will continue to gain share. This is a highly fragmented business that we are in, in the Asset and Wealth Management.
And so you can see over on the right, this is really our path to $10 trillion. I think, if we continue to invest the way that we have been, I don't see any reason, if our investment performance holds up, that we wouldn't be able to get those. But we're going to have to do some continuous investments. And that's what I'm I walk you through here on this page. This is our expense walk, just like everybody else's. Five years ago, when we invested, our investment dollars were $1 billion, that was very large for us. Last year, that was $2.3 billion. And this year, like I said, will be our highest ever at $2.7 billion. And that's going to be very exciting. And thanks to Ben Hesse and his team, and also Julie Harris, who runs global operations for everyone around the world who's standing in the back of the room.
She drills into our business every day. Create and build something once and use it many. Get rid of all these extra expenses where people are trying to do that in different areas. And so they are maniacally focused on getting rid of all of this waste so that we can reinvest, and that's even as we continue to grow volumes and efficiencies, we are able to plow back all of those dollars into here. And as we think about the seven investments that are on the right hand side, we are also completely obsessed about every single measurement of an ROI to make sure that it is the next best marginal dollar of your money to be able to put back in this business. And so that's what Ben and his team relentlessly do. And on these next seven pages, I'm going to hit on those seven areas. So let's look.
The first and foremost important investment we make every single morning of every single day is investing and active management. So that's the heart of what we do. We generate alpha and we are not distracted by being in the commoditized, lower yielding passive strategies. We can buy that beta, but we focus on the alpha. And thank God we have, because today's market environment is telling us that you're best off not being tethered to backward looking benchmarks. And in fact, that's why so many assets are actually flooding to us. And I'm very proud to say that now we have these $3 trillion operations, and actually all of them are sitting here. So Paul Quinsee's active equity management is right here, the fixed income, and of course, the money market fund business.
And if you look at what we are, we are not number one in AUM, but we are number one in flows. And for shareholders, that's the most exciting thing with tremendous upside here. How does it happen? There are three main ingredients. The first and foremost is on the bottom left, research. We believe that career analysts are treasured athletes, not want to be portfolio managers. That is a very important cultural difference of how we run this place. We have 500 career research analysts, we spend $500 million a year in annual spend, and that's one of the largest on Wall Street for the asset management business. We cover 5,000 companies, we have 11,000 company meetings every year. That's two every hour of every single 24-hour day, and most of them are held in our Shanghai office covering all of these new and exciting companies that are developing in other places in the world.
One of the points about being a career research analyst, Rob Bowman, who is our tech analyst, who Jensen Huang actually said, was the first person to get it back about 10 years ago, he said, working at JPMorgan, our relationships with CEOs and CFOs are very different from the competition, especially in technology, where Lori Beer and her whole team start to use the products and technology, that gives us a front line client view of the companies that we're investing in. That's priceless for us. And so in that research alpha, combined with what I call risk alpha, that's where Gregg Gunselman and Ashley Bacon run the independent risk management of this team, and give us those insights into asset management, and then, service alpha over on the right. Service alpha is what I call packaging the research. Many of you know Michael Cembalest, who runs the Eye on the Market piece, Guide to the Markets is something that Dr. David Kelly had created. Actually, it's in most use when markets are quite volatile. And in fact, just year-to-date, we've had 1.8 million of our slides be used (sic) [visits] by independent FAs. Those are FAs at some of your companies that you work for as well as independent RIAs around the world. So it's very impressive.
And then, the last is just events. It is not a small thing for us. Judy Miller, who's here, runs our Global Events team, and along with Alison Weiskopf, for Asset and Wealth Management. We run events every single day around the world. Those are our added benefit for our clients to come in, and really be trained on the things that we think about asset and wealth management.
But in addition to this alpha, we have to package it. And that's one of the most exciting growth areas now today, which is in these active ETFs. There's a significant, significant growth area. It's not to say that the mutual funds business won't grow – that first chart there is the next five years of mutual fund growth looking at about 6%. But the active ETF business is where you're going to get this explosive growth, and J.P. Morgan is a top 5 active manager, both with net new flows for mutual funds and in ETFs.
And I think that's really important. One is not cannibalizing the other, which is a worry that the street has. And that's really because Jed, who's right here in the front, you pushed very hard when you said, we are not going to run this separately. We're going to have the same PMs run a mutual fund and an ETF. It's going to be embedded in what we do. And with that, we are growing quite fast. You can see the numbers on the left. We are number two in AUM, in the active ETF space, but our flows are number one and clients will end up closing that gap for us quite quickly.
If you look at the bottom, this is just the extent of the reach here. Actually, you can see Travis Spence in the middle of all those pictures, it's a little bit like, Where's Waldo? He's Head of our Global ETF business, but he's in Toronto, in London, and very importantly, in Shanghai. You can see we have three of the five largest active ETFs in the world. But I think, more importantly, 24 that are over $1 billion, and most of these are very young, less than three-years-old. So you should expect those to have a really explosive growth, probably growing at about 5 times that in the coming years.
Alternatives, equally important for us run by Anton and Jed, who are here in this front table. This is going to define the next decade of the asset management business, I believe. And I don't think it's because alts will be off on the side, it's because alts will be part of everything we do in the traditional space.
Across our competitors, you see this very often. You see traditional players trying to buy alternative managers, and then, they find a way to deal with the cultural differences of the two. You also see traditional manager – sorry, alternative managers trying to grow the traditional sales forces, breaking into those RIA coverage models, which as I said, Andrea and her team have been doing for years.
We do both of those, and we do them very well. And so it's really for us to take the legacy of what we've been doing – in the real estate business, we've actually brought back Chad Tredway, who had been here in the Commercial Bank for many years, in the real estate side from Soros, where he had gone. He has turned this business around. Just in the past year, we are number one in investment performance against all our peers and we are number one in flows.
So very exciting to reboot that business. We have 30-year track record coming very soon in the Alternative Solutions business, with Ashmi and Steve. We have dominance in the infrastructure space growing quite quickly with everything that Paul Ryan and Matt LeBlanc are doing. And then, at the bottom, we have a lot of the new areas. Patrick McGoldrick with Steve Squinto and others are giving us great opportunities to invest in the growth private equity business.
But I think the most important is the middle. And that's what we talked about. It's very hard to create these distribution areas. We have four of them. Together, the four are the killer for being able to get out there in the space. In the institutional side, obviously, we've been there for years, covering 60% of the world's largest clients. In the private bank, we already put $2 billion to work every single month. In alternatives – in RIA space I mentioned, we cover 70% of them already. But look at this bottom one Chase, you see a little bar, you can't see anything in the alts. They are so hungry for alternatives. And with these evergreen strategies, you see the green in the evergreen. That's really the retail side that's going to grow. That is just ripe to be able to offer to those clients. And we're really excited about that.
And I have no doubt the horsepower of all of this coming together will help us to move in those league tables on the bottom and everything that KK and Jed and Anton do every day is going to help us.
The fourth area is probably the most exciting from the M&A that we did. We got the question – Jeremy got the question about M&A. This has been our best performing one. Just back in 2022, we got into the equity share plan business by buying Global Shares and Vince La Padula and Dan are standing right back there, they now run this really exciting part of what we do. And we've actually never gone from zero to fourth place that fast in anything. And it's really important to see the clients that we have onboarded here.
In fact, in the last two years, the number of clients we've onboarded has been larger than all of our - than our largest two competitors - combined. But, in many ways, I mentioned Robin and her HR team, we onboarded workplace for JPMorgan employees, and that was no small feat. You can imagine what we put them through.
And when we did it, actually, all of the technology we plowed into it has led us to have so many more clients on the outside want to now be part of it, we have had twice the number of RFPs year-to-date that we've had in the last year and many more than years before. But the real growth is going to come from that right side.
This whole equation is to give us leads in the business, to give leads to the commercial bank, leads to the investment bank, and very importantly, leads to the whole wealth management continuum of clients. And in fact, when you look at all the cap tables in the world, 42% of them are in the innovation economy. That's something that Doug worked really hard to create post the SVB and FRC changes that occurred in the environment, and took John China and Melissa Smith and really had them lean into this. And I think that that's where we're going to get some pretty explosive growth here.
But we're going to need more people to do it. And so the talent is the fifth out of the seven areas that we invest in; very, very important as we continue to grow this. We have now 9,600 advisors when you take the whole wealth management equation of Kristin's world and Dave and others in the wealth management space. But the real cracking of the code is the middle. You can hire these people, or you can grow these people. And in fact, now, half of our new advisors come from growing them from within.
And if you look at that right hand side, you say, how is that possible that you made that productivity go up? And it is a combination of – one thing I'm going to show you here, which is training and the next thing I'm going to talk about in two slides, which is our technology investing and what AI is doing for this. That productivity up 3.4 times is got to be industry-leading. I don't know how other people measure it.
Jeremy Geller, who's sitting in the front row, said, you can't just train them with outsourced training, okay? We need more training and we got to do it ourselves. And in fact, we take some of the best frontline advisors, and we say, you're going to go train them. You're going to dedicate your time to do it. This picture on the bottom is crazy. Okay. This is Nelle Miller's team, her investors, and the Minnesota team and the California team. They went over and volunteered their time to land in Hong Kong to teach Harshika's new – although those are new hires in Asia. They spent a week in Hong Kong, giving their time to be able to do that. And that's priceless.
And so today, we now have these 25-year-olds that are coming online that are just as productive as our 30- to 35-year-old mid-career hires. And I think this is really great both for them, but also for our shareholders. It's a formula that's now repeatable, scalable, and it works globally. And you can see that in these lines. The lines are getting thicker. There's more of them and then they're getting steeper. And I think that after the early years of the J-curve, the payoff is happening much faster, something that we measure on a daily basis.
And so, two more areas that are involved in technology, but this one is really important. These were two others of our acquisitions that we did. So Ted Dimig and Jed and Ben actually came and made the case that if you are going to get this flywheel going of personalization at scale, you need some fintechs. A lot of you debate whether fintechs can work inside of a bank. And in fact, 55ip and OpenInvest have done just that.
This whole equation, we had 1 million accounts just a couple of years ago. We're now at 2 million and we're on our way to explosive growth. 55ip, just one of those engines right there, brought in $25 billion in assets last year. And that takes that whole flywheel to about $380 billion, making us in the top three.
But like many of these acquisitions, we spent a lot of time future-proofing it and JPMorgan-izing it. And thank God, we did, because what's happened over these past couple of months in terms of volume explosion wouldn't have happened had we not fortified it. We were averaging about 14 million trades a day. We got to April, we're at 28 million trades on an average day. Three of the four highest trading days we've ever had were in the month of April.
And in fact, across all of our trading that we do in asset and wealth management, that same is true that we have been fortifying and using actually AI on our trading desks for the past eight years. And so now we're up to roughly $260 billion that we trade every day across asset and wealth management. But as we headed into the month of April, that went up to $500 billion a day, with no stress on the system. So we're ready for more. And that's exactly where tech and AI take us, which is the last of the seven areas that we invest in.
You can see that we have gone from removing the no-joy work, everything that we talked about in Jeremy's opening to actually taking this into development, taking it into anticipatory help, and all of the work that Teresa and Lori are doing on the tech side is fantastic. Our Head of Tech, Mike Urciuoli, he said we have immersed ourselves in an AI-first mindset across all that we do. And AI is not just a tool, it's reimagining workflows and it's changing the loading capacities for thousands of people on the frontline and in the back.
And Smart Monitor is probably one of the ones that will resonate with you almost. It's the one that is used for our analyst and our portfolio managers. Honestly, I was totally wrong. I thought that you would be the last people to use this stuff, because you think I'm too smart for AI and I have to do it my way. It saves so much time. It takes millions of all of the call reports, the Q’s, the K’s, the stock moves on any given day. It spits it out in the ratio that you like versus the ratio that you like. And you think about how that lifts you. It also follows the stocks that are not within your universe that you might not have put into your portfolio and keeps an eye on those on any given day. And so it's really taking things that take days and weeks and turning them into seconds. It's super powerful.
But the one that's caught the most attention is Connect Coach. And this is the one that's been lifting those advisors and the productivity. Okay. Connect Coach basically anticipates next best action, but very personalized to any particular situation. So you take April. Stocks are gapping down on one day and they're going in the opposite direction in the next day. And what's happening? The best advisors we have are already knowing exactly what to do. It's intuitive to them. They know how to think about something that's down low, maybe you swap it out for tax purposes, et cetera. But actually, Connect Coach is saying, hang on a second, these stocks, 48 of them just hit an all-time high. And here, here are the clients that haven't donated to their local alma mater this year and a lot of them need some help this year.
So please push this button here and it'll tee up DAF for you, and how to do that donation. These stocks have hit an all-time low the very – the day before. And what do you do? You want to capture the moment where it's in the low. You want to call the J.P. Morgan board members. You want to say J.P. Morgan stock just hit this low. Think about quickly putting it in a (sic) GRAT DAF, because we know you're going to hold it, and that future appreciation will go to the next generation.
All of that stuff is automated. You walk away from a morning meeting. Michael Barakos has just covered International European Equities, and you say to yourself, who doesn't have European stocks? It's already up on your desktop. It shows you – who doesn't have it, it shows you the fund fact sheets and it gives you a sample e-mail or talking points to call clients.
So all of those things are super, super important. And that has only been with 4,600 private banking advisors. And Saturday, we launched it to Kristin Lemkau's 7,600 CWM employees, and now we will be at about 17,000 by the end of the year.
On the right-hand side is a case that was written about Lori and Teresa's work, but also, about how Ashley Bacon has wrapped this in risk management and Mike Urciuoli and his team, I see Vrinda (02:19:43) in the back. Some of the investors went, some of the – the whole team went up to teach the case. It is now a required curriculum final case for your first year. We went up and saw it. I'm actually on the Harvard's AI Board up there, and they said, it was just one of the most exciting things. And the reason that they made it the final case for first years to be taught is because they just think what we're doing is so different.
There's a quote on the bottom, and it was basically said in almost every one of the 10 sections that we were teaching, it says we've looked at AI across many different industries and J.P. Morgan's playing an entirely different game. And so that takes us to a game. These are games. I just wanted to take a minute to talk about sports as just a way to crystallize the way this whole firm comes together. And I think there's no better way to do it than in the sports business.
Sports used to be an individual investment. So 60% of the major sports team owners around are private banking clients. We've been helping them for many, many years, but as it's grown in size, we've had to help them to think about how do you handle that size? How do you lend into that size? Both for monetizing the investments you have, so your family members can get some money, as well as getting new clients who can be able to afford these new teams.
And so Brian Kantarian and Omar created now what is the largest lending business on the private banking space. Actually, 10 of the last 15 major sports transaction that have happened in the world have been financed by J.P. Morgan. So that's really exciting.
We then moved into institutional buyers saying, well, this is a really exciting asset class, maybe I should be investing in it. But it's hard for the US leagues to allow some of this sovereign wealth funds. To be able to that, J.P. Morgan advised on the very first sovereign wealth fund entering into one of the big four leagues, I'm actually getting off-stage, and going over to the Middle East to see that client right after this.
That combined with the fact we've already been investing in these private equity firms that are launching these sports funds and we give access to our clients to have this, we then realize that the whole institutional world needs institutionalization. And so the stadiums became a very big deal. Many you know much about having to increase fan base participation across a much nicer stadium and the service et cetera. And so what we did was we took the investment bank's municipal finance expertise and the commercial bank's real estate expertise and took a guy named Zach Effron, who's our Zach Effron, not Hollywood Zac Efron, and he oversees now what has become the largest practice. In fact, 65% of the major financing developments have come through that team.
You pull all of that together and you say, how do you how do you make the magic? You make the magic, because actually these sports teams are being valued based on media. J.P. Morgan's Investment Bank has had the number one media practice forever. We are now into the media sports practice. And, in fact, we landed and finished the largest completion of a controlled sports franchise ever in the history, which will hopefully change the face of the way sports are being dealt with.
And just importantly, that whole flywheel of people, they don't sit there and count the beans of, like, who gets credit for what. I just talked to you about everything across all of the different lines of business. We do not tolerate that here at J.P. Morgan. We do not have side accounting groups that think about where those revenues get counted for. We are trying to win for the client, and in fact, that's what we're doing every single day.
So, in conclusion, we have a business that is incredibly durable. It doesn't matter to us on any given day what is working and what is not. We don't need every single asset class and we don't need every single revenue driver to be working really well to have asset and wealth management work really well. It's a periodic table just like asset allocation. And so that's what's taking us through.
And in fact, on the bottom, as Jeremy pointed out at the beginning, clients continue to vote with their feet in the asset and wealth management business. That $1 trillion over the last two years is the equivalent of a top 25 asset management firm in and of its own right. And you can see over on the far side, we've expanded that list of who we can compare ourselves to across our competitors to include alternative managers and the like, and J.P. Morgan is proudly number two overall.
Which takes me to this final and exciting slide presented to you by Ben Hesse. He is so incredibly proud of this. Why? Because asset management firms are viewed on flows and banks are viewed on ROE, and we think we've created the equation that hits both. And so you see on the left, we were sort of mediocre on both of those sides just five years ago, and our PTI back then was about $3 billion. We have doubled it. The size of the bubble is $7 billion. We're the only asset management firm to have doubled PTI of our publicly traded peers.
And in fact, we are now really proud of where we stand on that chart, which concludes me to say we are going to continue to reiterate our through-the-cycle medium-term targets. A lot of you ask, why do you have these really high numbers, and then, these targets that you keep beating every year? And the reason is, I don't want anyone on the management team to have anything else in their head except for growth for you as the shareholders, I don't want them to be constrained by raising higher targets. And with that, we are going to continue to do this.
The last point I want to make is when we went through our own red teaming, that's what we do across all of the different lines of business. Here is we're getting ready for you. This is a very important day for all of us. We talk to each other about what is the storyline and how do you think about it. And Matt Kane sat through our last final red teaming, and he said, just look at this business, he said, you take the benefits of the diversification that you already have, you take these new capabilities that I'm hearing about 55ip, customized portfolios, active ETFs, you take the leads you've got from workplace, you take the new hires that you're ramping up and you take the AI innovation, and you will just continue to unleash the power that this business keeps delivering to our shareholders. And so we're going to do just that, Matt.
And with that, thank you. I'll turn it over to the Investment Bank.
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Unverified Participant
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Please welcome to the stage, Doug Petno.
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Douglas B. Petno Co-CEO, Commercial & Investment Bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
Good morning, everyone. On behalf of the entire team and CIB, thank you so much for joining us today. Troy and I are honored to lead this incredible franchise and we're delighted to have you here.
Today, I'm going to speak to the newly formed Commercial & Investment Bank and our strategic priorities. Troy will update you on our efforts across security services, markets, and Global Banking and Max and Umar will provide a deeper dive into our payments solutions and their strategy for innovation and growth. Troy and I will then come back up and give you an outlook for CIB second quarter and we'd be happy to answer any questions that you may have.
So let's jump right in. So as a reminder, last year, we combined our two operating businesses, Commercial Banking and Corporate and Investment Banking, to form the new Commercial & Investment Bank. Our clients are growing, scaling, and expanding globally at an accelerated pace, all while our competitive landscape continues to evolve.
The new CIB is designed to best serve our clients, creating a single wholesale operating entity, four business units tightly knit with a very clear strategy to be our client's most important financial partner. In Global Banking, we've aligned our leading Investment Banking, Global Corporate Banking and Commercial Banking businesses to enhance our go-to-market approach and seamlessly serve our clients throughout their lifecycle. The result is a franchise with incredible global reach, scale and capability, and we're winning.
Our Investment Bank is a clear market leader in M&A, DCM and ECM, ranking number one in all three last year. Our Global Corporate Bank serves over 5,000 of the largest companies globally, with about one-third of our clients headquartered outside of the United States. And in Commercial Banking, we are the number one bank, serving the middle market, and we've been number one in multifamily lending over the last decade.
Working hand-in-hand with Global Banking is our Payments franchise, which serves clients in over 160 countries and over 120 currencies. We process over $10 trillion and nearly 60 million transactions in Payments every day.
Our Markets business is a complete counterparty to clients, meeting their needs across a range of asset classes and through the entire trade lifecycle – from research, pre-trade analytics, from trading and financing, all the way to post-trade support. We cover nearly 90% of institutional investors and we're number one in market share in every region. And finally, in security services, we are a leading custody and fund services provider with a blue-chip client franchise and industry-leading margins.
So looking forward, we're completely focused on the enormous potential we have in front of us and equally aware of the range of threats, including competitors across all of our businesses and in all of our markets. And so what is it that sets us apart? And this will look familiar. As you have heard from all of our partners today, we have real moats around our franchise. We are complete with a comprehensive offering and leadership positions in all of our businesses.
That said, we're not standing still and we're making strategic investments in our platform, capabilities and footprint. We have incredible global reach, while we serve our clients locally. We do this across 60 countries and in 74 of the top 75 MSAs in the United States, benefiting from a rich legacy around the world, with almost 80 years in Tokyo, over 200 years in London, and over 225 years right here in New York City. And we're deeply embedded in these communities, with strong local knowledge, expertise and connectivity.
We are diversified with $70 billion of total revenues across client size, industry, geography and business. Our diversified business model provides for more enduring, repeatable revenues and financial performance through this cycle. And this gives us stamina, especially in volatile markets, which lets us make sustained investments in the long term.
As a part of JPMorgan Chase, we operate with tremendous scale, with our iconic brand, exceptional client franchise, expansive footprint and market-leading capabilities, all setting the foundation for our continued growth and success.
On the right-hand side of the slide, you'll see just a few statistics that mention the absolute scale of our businesses. This gives us real efficiency and operating leverage. And if you look just within our markets business, there's several powerful examples. For instance, as our overall trading volumes have nearly tripled since 2019, we've seen significant reductions in our cost per trade. In rates, it's come down 42%; in cash equities, it's come down 23%. But perhaps, the biggest differentiator for us is our exceptional team and strong culture.
Our client-focus mindset and commitment to excellence is a common language across our business. So while we're quite proud of our franchise, we take nothing for granted against both the opportunities and challenges we've set out a deliberate, strategic agenda, focused on capturing the full potential of our now combined businesses, investing to extend our competitive advantages, and empowering what is the best team by any measure.
With whitespace across CIB, we are executing multiple growth initiatives, focused on expanding and deepening our client franchise. As we constantly face powerful new competitors, emerging technologies and evolving client expectations, we're innovating to extend our competitive advantages. Our opportunity to self-disrupt spreads across every single client journey in CIB – from how we onboard clients and conduct KYC to how clients trade with us and to how we deliver credit. And we've seen real improvements in our critical processes.
In KYC, for instance, we've seen a 40% reduction in unit cost since 2022 due to AI and technology enhancements. With our digital platforms, we're working to drive simpler, more efficient, more intuitive digital-first experiences. And you'll hear more from Max and Umar and our work to optimize our digital channels.
We have incredibly rich data assets and we've made steady progress in building a truly data-driven business. CIB has over 175 AI use cases in production. And with so much potential, this work is quite exciting as we're leveraging our data at scale to provide our teams with predictive analytics and unique insights, optimize our operations, and protect both our clients and our firm with better risk decisioning and portfolio management.
We're also continuing to invest in our teams and we're expanding to support important growth and strategic initiatives with targeted hiring across the franchise.
In Global Banking, we've added nearly 600 senior bankers in the last two years. And we aren't just adding talent, we're delivering training, insights and technology to empower, and enable our teams, focused on serving our clients in a highly differentiated manner. Importantly, maintaining fortress principles is a core tenet of our strategy. We benefit from a strong risk and control culture, rigorous client selection, and a through-the-cycle mindset. As such, complex markets play to our strengths as we continuously prepare for a range of economic scenarios.
Altogether, this consistent long-term strategy has underpinned CIB's strong financial and operating performance. As you can see on the slide, CIB has delivered substantial organic growth and we've done so through a rage of market environments. In 2024, we generated total revenues of $70 billion, net income of $25 billion, and return on equity of 18%. Over the last five years, we've seen steady growth in revenues and our earnings have grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 9%.
Importantly, these results are diversified, and they benefit from our market leadership positions and the stickiness and repeatability of our Treasury services, lending and security services revenues. We consistently maintain risk discipline and efficiently deploy our capital to serve our clients through the cycle. And so looking forward, we would expect a return on equity of 16% over the medium term. But, obviously, this could be impacted by potential headwinds that Jeremy walked through earlier today.
The strong results I just highlighted were driven by the sustained investments we've made over the past decade or longer. And CIB's overhead ratio of 50% in 2024 is one of the best amongst our key peers, even while we've made significant investments in our franchise. This year, we expect our total expenses to increase 7%, in line with the guidance we gave at year end. Our volume and revenue-related expenses should increase year-over-year in line with our continued growth and momentum we see across the business. And the biggest percentage increase in our expenses relates to the investments we are making in technology and a range of strategic initiatives. These investments will defend our franchise and best position us to capture the many opportunities ahead.
For this year, we expect total investments to increase 8% from $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion. Most of the spend is across two main categories. First is technology where we're investing $3.7 billion, targeting $2.5 billion to our products, platforms, and then experiences. We also continue to make the necessary long-term investments into modernizing our infrastructure. This includes investments for cybersecurity, resiliency and executing our cloud strategy.
The other major focus is funding the strategic expansion of our banking and sales teams. Troy will cover this in detail, but we have an outstanding track record of organic growth tied to deliberately putting more JPMorgan bankers in front of more clients and more prospects.
And before I hand the mic to Troy, let me end by saying that we're only beginning to see the full potential of our interconnected businesses. Our coverage and product teams are even more closely aligned, segmented and focused, delivering deep industry and market expertise. We're solutions-driven, serving our clients at every step in their journey from startup to large multinational. And we are one face to sizable market ecosystems like private capital and the innovation economy. And with each of our businesses performing exceptionally well, what is exciting is we operate in large and growing addressable markets and there are substantial opportunities to build on our momentum.
And with that, let me now pass it over to Troy to tell you more.
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Unverified Participant
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Welcome to the stage, Troy Rohrbaugh.
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Troy Rohrbaugh Co-CEO-Commercial & Investment Bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
Thank you, Doug; and good morning, everyone. We believe the power of our combined CIB franchise is incredibly unique. We are now even better positioned to deliver comprehensive solutions to our clients and capture large and growing opportunities. So now I'll walk through our lines of business and cover their performance and key priorities.
Starting with security services, where we have made immense progress. This is a business with a concentrated wallet across the largest institutional investors, and that trend has been accelerating. Our strategy has always been focused on partnering with long-term clients who are benefiting from these consolidation trends, and therefore, need and value our full offering as they become even more global and complex.
We operate in 100 markets. And as a result, our client base is well-diversified across geographies, with over 60% of our revenue generated outside the US. From security services to markets, we offer front-to-back solutions. 80% of our clients are also markets clients, including our top 200. We have over $35 trillion in assets under custody and generated over $5 billion in revenue in 2024, marking our fifth straight year of record revenue, driven by steady fee growth as well as the stable and growing deposit base.
Since 2019, we've improved our share by 50 basis points and are in the top three with 10.7% share. While it's important for us to close the gap to number one, we are focused on doing so profitably. We continue to drive efficiency at scale across our complete product set. As you can see on the right, in trading services, we've increased our balances by 80% and reduced unit costs by 72%. And in ETFs, we've increased assets under custody by over 300%.
Importantly, we've continued to deliver the best-in-class operating margin of 32%, which is the outcome of years of investing in our platforms and thoughtfully partnering and growing with our clients. This space continues to evolve, including factors like competition and price compression, clients investing in more complex markets and strategies and the increasing need for data and analytics.
As our clients navigate a changing landscape, they rely on us as their long-term partner. Our technology and scale are critical to being an end game winner in this business. Not to mention the data in our Fusion platform, which opens up incredible potential for AI to further drive value for our clients and better enable productivity.
Moving on to markets. We are proud to be the top franchise. In any market environment, we are committed to being a complete and global counterparty with strong risk management and the ability to allocate capital dynamically. Our intense client-centric focus allows us to meet our clients' needs through the trade lifecycle.
Our number one ranked research organization delivers best-in-class content and insights to client, with over 90,000 active users on our JPMorgan Markets portal. In trading, we ranked top two in 11 of the 13 sub-products. And financing is a significant and expanding portion of our revenue in both FICC and equities, growing by 75% since 2019. And here, we have the top market share among our peer group at 17%. Supporting all of this is our resilient infrastructure and digital platforms, enabling us to handle massive spikes in volume like we saw last month. For example, we executed $340 billion of FX notional in one single day.
Turning to financial performance, we generated a record $30 billion of revenue last year, maintaining our number one rank, even as the significant wallet continues to attract competition from both banks and non-banks. In the middle of the slide is our product market share. In equities, our multiyear investment strategy has led to growth across all three key areas: cash, [ph] prime (02:44:48) and derivatives.
In FICC, we have been the leading franchise for over a decade. However, our market share is lower relative to pre-COVID, due to a change in the wallet mix, plus certain areas of underperformance such as rates, which we are addressing. Perhaps, even more important is our client market share on the right, which is the cornerstone of our franchise. Similar to securities services, we are focused on growing alongside our largest institutional clients where we've seen the consolidation of the wallet there as well over the past few years.
Here we have the leading market share, increasing by 230 basis points since 2019. As we discussed last year, we continue to see opportunities to deepen relationships with corporates, which we are well-positioned to do through our combined organization. For example, our TSFX revenues from international corporate clients have grown by over 40% in the last two years.
So while the market environment remains uncertain, we operate from a position of strength, which should allow us to capitalize on a potentially larger wallet, while still investing in our clients' products, technology and innovation. We also continue to deploy capital in a disciplined way, pursuing opportunities dynamically across key products and client segments.
Okay. So now turning to Global Banking, where, as Doug said, we are fully integrated yet intentionally segmented to serve our clients at every stage of their lifecycle. With our comprehensive set of solutions across payments, lending, advisory and capital markets, all delivered with excellence, we are creating client-for-life relationships. The breadth and expertise of our model is what truly sets us apart. Including fit-for-purpose solutions delivered to our 80,000 clients, global scale with local presence in 220 cities and nearly 4,000 senior bankers with deep industry knowledge, serving as trusted advisers to our clients. And the interconnectedness across our businesses allows us to deliver a unified client experience.
The power of Global Banking is demonstrated in our financial results, with strong growth in revenue delivered in close collaboration with our payments team. Max and Umar will tell you more about that in a minute.
For the past 15 years, we've been number one in global investment banking fees. And last year, for the first time, we took a full sweep of number one across M&A, DCM and ECM. However, the race at the top is tight, which is why we continue to focus diligently product-by-product, subsector-by-subsector. And we remain incredibly disciplined in our loan growth, while still growing our deposits through the cycle.
We're in a challenging environment with potential downward pressures on investment banking wallet, acute competition, and the increasing war for talent. But we will continue to expand our client franchise through our targeted growth initiatives. For example, we are using our data to better target 60,000 middle market prospects to become their primary bank.
In investment banking, we're making inroads in the subsector opportunities we shared with you last year, and we've prioritized 16 of those, which are growing and benefiting from secular trends. And as Doug mentioned, the sponsor and innovation economy ecosystems present large market opportunities, where we believe we are uniquely positioned to gain outsized wallet share.
For example, we grew our innovation economy client base by 30% last year. Finally, we continue to invest in our talent, adding over 2,000 client-facing and supporting team members in the last five years, while enabling them with real-time insights and analytics to increase sales productivity.
Okay. Turning to our lending exposure. Jeremy already covered some of this, so I won't add much further other than to say we're comfortable with our overall exposure, but we are closely monitoring both middle market companies and certain sectors that may be more significantly impacted by tariffs, as well as other areas where credit has broadly grown during this cycle.
In commercial real estate, our portfolio remains consistent at $200 billion, which is predominantly multifamily, mainly in Classes B and C where we've seen limited losses. And as Doug shared, our primary objective is to be the most important financial partner to our clients and to be a stable port in the storm.
Okay. So I'm going to finish with a powerful example of how our combined franchise across commercial banking, investment banking and markets is even better positioned to deliver comprehensive solutions to our clients. As we said earlier, we are one face to large market ecosystems. And private credit is no exception. We talked about this last year and we've made real progress since then.
We believe that we are uniquely positioned to sit at the center of this ecosystem. And our public commitment to direct lending speaks for itself, $50 billion from our own balance sheet, alongside nearly $15 billion from our co-lending partners. This will be deployed thoughtfully and over time, applying our consistent and disciplined approach to risk management. We do not do this for the purpose of gathering assets. We do this to meet our clients' needs.
Core to our strategy is that we partner with both our borrower and investor clients. When it comes to our borrower clients, we are committed to meeting their capital needs by delivering the most appropriate solution, whether it's public, private, hybrid, or any variation thereof. As for our investor clients, we do not see this as being at odds with those who provide these solutions as well. We see it as an opportunity to partner with them and promote a healthy, functioning market.
And all of this creates flywheel benefits, helping us capture revenues across trading, financing payments, advisory, among others. And we will continue to evolve our approach as needed to ensure we are best positioned to drive value for our clients.
So with that, I'll hand it over to Max and Umar who will give you an update on our Payments business.
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Unverified Participant
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Welcome to the stage, Max Neukirchen.
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Max Neukirchen Co-Head of JPMorgan Global Payments, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
Thank you. Troy and Doug, and welcome to our deep dive on Payments. In Payments, we serve an incredible breadth of clients across sizes and industries all around the world. But we do not pursue a one-size-fits-all approach. We offer comprehensive solutions, tailored to their specific needs – from digital-first products to support start-ups, to complex global solutions for multinational companies.
Our business is world-leading. Last year, we generated more than $18 billion of revenues. And our scale is unmatched. We serve 20 of the largest 20 companies on the planet. We cover 80% of the Fortune 500 and we are number one in US middle market. And central to all of this is our goal of being the primary operating bank to each of our clients.
In addition to serving our clients, we're also a critical partner to the rest of the firm. For example, we hold $760 billion of deposits, which is almost one-third of the firm's deposit funding. Most of them are operating deposits. And we are also critical to the success of other businesses within JPMC as the examples on the bottom show.
Payments unlocks incremental revenues. For example, we have a successful collaboration with markets around seamless FX that has added hundreds of millions of incremental revenues over the last few years. Payments also generates significant cost savings. As you can see in the middle at the bottom, both securities services and CCB leverage our infrastructure to process trillions of dollars of savings every year.
And Payments powers alternative solutions for our clients. For example, we enable them to sweep funds into AWM, at the moment about $175 billion of balances. All these synergies create value for the firm, but they also really solidify our role as a leader in financial services.
Now, let me talk a little bit more about the sub-businesses we have in Payments. Treasury services is a business that offers liquidity management and money movement to clients. We are number one and we continue to grow. On an average day, we process more than $10 trillion of volume and that goes up to $14 trillion on peak days.
In merchant services, we allow companies to accept payments from their customers, both online and in-store. We are the number one acquirer in the US, and we are also the number one e-commerce acquirer in EMEA. Last year, we processed more than $2.6 trillion of volume, and at peak, more than 6,000 transactions per second.
Our trade business is focused on being a leader in key subsegments, such as structured trade. And as you can see on the page, the number 7 ranking has opportunities to grow. These first three businesses are well-established and generate more than 90% of our Payments revenues. However, the next two are areas of key investment and also show high growth. Embedded finance and solution encompasses vertical and horizontal value-added services, as well as software solutions. Our embedded payments platform is number one ranked.
And then, finally, we offer a best-in-class digital solutions, including our number one ranked client portals, JPMorgan Access and Connect as well as Kinexys, one of the largest blockchain networks in payments.
Now, what makes us unique in all of this? Our solutions create tangible value by combining the power of a large, trusted bank with the innovation of a tech company. And no other payments business has our unique set of assets, having a number one treasury services organization and the world-leading acquirer all under one roof. And we also differentiate by how we deliver this to our clients. We have a single coverage organization. We have a unified, high-touch approach to clients service. And we operate at scale 24/7 all around the world.
Let me bring this alive to you with two client examples, Booking Holdings and TotalEnergies. Booking Holdings on the left is a online travel agency that has household brands such as Booking.com and KAYAK. We've been with them since the beginning. We were their first bank. We gave them their first ever loan through the Commercial Bank. And of course, we have had a deep payments relationship.
Our payments relationship has evolved over the last 30 years to become Booking's pre-eminent partner by offering them the specific solutions that you see on the left hand side of the page. TotalEnergies is a global energy company, headquartered in France. We've enjoyed a longstanding relationship with them across Investment Banking, Markets, and of course, Payments. TotalEnergies leverages us for liquidity management and cash management, but most importantly, to power their global growth.
And beyond the day-to-day, we support TotalEnergies in defining modern day treasury management. We allow them to have real-time settlement, 24/7, leveraging our blockchain solutions, and they benefit from our AI-powered fraud prevention tools. Both examples show that we are a trusted partner to companies at every growth stage, earned by delivering solutions to their specific needs.
Now, let's turn to some key financials. We have seen incredible top line growth over the last few years, adding more than $8 billion of revenue at a 12% CAGR. But it's not only the absolute growth, it's also relative growth. Our treasury services market share has increased by more than 350 basis points over that timeframe. And it's the quality of these revenues that also matters. Payments is essential to our clients. Our relationships are deep and long-lasting, and those revenues are therefore consistent and recurring.
Two metrics we monitor very closely to judge the health of our franchise, actually growth in fees and growth in deposits as we can see in the middle of the page. Fees have grown at a 9% CAGR, driven by our investment in modern platforms as well as in expanded coverage, as you heard earlier from Doug. And over the same time period, as you can see at the middle – in the bottom, our deposits are more than 50%, mostly high-quality operating deposits.
Last year offered a clear demonstration of the strong earnings profile of this franchise. While revenue growth was nearly flat, it was a very successful year, because we were able to absorb significant rate-related headwinds through our deposit and our fee growth. And it's performance like that that will help us weather future cycles.
Now, let's look ahead – looking ahead, we see significant tailwinds that will position us well for continued growth. First of all, payments continue to digitize all around the world, with electronic solutions replacing cash. That grows the wallet for us, but, of course, also for the whole industry.
In addition to wallet growth, there continues to be a consolidation towards the largest players, reflecting an industry trend towards scale and security. JPMorgan is very well-positioned for that trend. And thirdly, payments is becoming more and more strategic, evolving from a back office function to a key revenue driver for many of our clients. That means clients are willing to pay a premium for differentiated solutions.
Now, how will we capture all of these opportunities going forward? For that, I'll hand it over to partner, Umar, who will take you through our five growth levers.
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Unverified Participant
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Welcome to the stage Umar Farooq.
Umar Farooq Co-Head of JPMorgan Global Payments, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
Thanks, Max; and good morning, everyone. As you heard, our business has tremendous momentum and natural tailwinds. We want to ensure that we capture this opportunity and have a five-pronged strategy to do so. Working closely with our partners in banking, we will continue to expand coverage across industries and geographies.
We will combine this expanded coverage with the strength of our balance sheet to deploy capital and meet the needs of our clients. We have been on a modernization journey for many years now. And given the centrality of technology to our business and the constant innovation in our space, we will continue to invest in platforms that are innovative, scalable and resilient. Last, but definitely not least, we are doubling down in our existing footprint and looking to expand to new markets.
Let me cover a few of these points in a bit more detail. Our partnership with Commercial Banking and Corporate Banking is a key asset for the Payments business. We see significant opportunities across segments and geographies to deepen existing relationships and to capture new clients. Our focus on expanding coverage is actually nothing new. Since 2022, we have expanded our banker head count by more than 1,000, and we intend to continue growing. Most importantly, as mentioned earlier, this shows the power of bringing the Commercial & investment bank together last year. Many of the segments we are focused on take our existing expertise from commercial banking in the United States and rolls it out across our international footprint.
Now you've heard quite a bit about our modernization journey in past investor days and can now say – see multiple years of investments paying off in our performance. Our double-digit growth in fee revenue is a testament to building a modern, highly scalable and resilient platform. In fact, we built all of our new applications for maximum flexibility, utilizing micro services and a cloud-ready architecture. Down the middle of this page, you can see many examples of completed and ongoing work across our entire product suite, including very importantly, the completion of our target state global platforms for Treasury Services and Merchant Services. We believe this gives us a sustainable advantage versus our peers. And I'd be remiss if I didn't say that in our business, you're never really done with modernization. And we will continue to invest in our platforms on an ongoing basis.
These state-of-the-art platforms enable industry-leading digital experiences and innovation. We are laser focused on providing the absolute best digital experience to every single client segment. We already have, as you heard, award winning, at-scale platforms like JPMorgan Access and Chase Connect that serve more than 400,000 users on a regular basis. But we are building new ones. We are really focused on building digital experiences that are targeted to specific segments like technology startups.
On the right of this page, you can see an area that makes us really proud, Kinexys, our blockchain business, formerly known as Onyx by JPMorgan. Kinexys is one of the largest and leading institutional blockchain platforms and has delivered many industry firsts from programmable payments for our corporate clients to instant settlement between US dollars and euros.
Our pedigree in this space is unique. We started investing in blockchain many years ago before our peers, fintechs included, and have stuck with this investment through all intervening cycles. Our world-class team has spent years building a platform that's scaled and fully complaint. And this platform, since launch, has processed nearly $2 trillion, putting it in a category by itself. And we are very excited about recent developments in areas like tokenized assets. With our platform, we are ready to capture these opportunities. And we intend to continue innovation in this space with the quality and the compliance expected of JPMorgan. Needless to say, we have some exciting products lined up, so stay tuned.
We are also very proud of our best-in-class data platform. As one of the largest players in payments, we have a data asset that is second to none. To harness the power of this data, we have been building and have completed building a cloud-native data infrastructure and are utilizing AI and machine learning models for everything, from prospect qualification to transaction screening and operations. The operational efficiencies our data platform has allowed us to capture with AI models are truly impressive.
In the last few years, our transaction volumes have gone up by more than 50%. At the same time, our AI models have allowed us to cut manual exceptions by more than 50%, delivering significant operating leverage. And that's not it. We also have been able to cut down the turnaround times for these exceptions by nearly 75%, which has allowed us to deliver exceptional client experience. Frankly, this is just a small example of how key our data asset will be to the future of our business as we expand and lean ever more so into technologies like generative AI.
Finally, we are excited about expanding our global footprint, something that's very important to many of our clients. We are already well positioned. We are the number one player in financial institution payments globally. Our SWIFT market share is significantly higher than any of our peers. However, as we mentioned earlier, we continue to invest in expanding corporate coverage across all segments from startups to multinationals. This goes hand in hand with expanding capabilities in our existing markets.
Take Mexico for an example. Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America and has a large untapped payments opportunity. To capture this, we've been investing and expanding our product capabilities within Mexico. And since 2021, this has allowed us to double our client count and increase transaction counts by nearly 10 times. And Mexico is just one example. We have similar product expansion and modernization work going across many of the countries in our footprint. We are also expanding into new markets to capture new opportunities.
One exciting announcement is that we have launched an ADGM, UAE's free trade zone earlier this year. We plan to continue adding new geographies in a disciplined manner in the years to come. For example, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, coming soon. Now, I'd love to share other countries on our roadmap, but you, as investors, are not the only ones listening.
Let me recap what Max and I covered over the last few minutes. We have an incredibly powerful franchise that we deliver to our clients, large and small, across the globe. They choose us as their primary operating bank because of the safety, the scale and innovation we deliver every single day. We continue to deliver strong performance, driven by double-digit organic growth and recurring revenue streams. And we believe that our targeted investments in state-of-the-art platforms and innovation set us up for high quality growth in the long term.
We have a great hand and even with moderate rate headwinds, we believe our business is well positioned to add several billion dollars of incremental annual revenue in the coming years. We truly hope you're as excited about our business as Max and I are.
And with that, I'll turn it back to Doug and Troy.
Watch Asset & Wealth Management's Presentation by Mary Callahan Erdoes
Five key takeaways
J.P. Morgan is committed to growing through strategic initiatives and a focus on long-term development, targeting superior shareholder returns and financial health.
We plan to have the largest investment spend in our history and focus on 7 key areas:
1. Investing in active management
We’re focused on alpha through three $1 trillion franchises: equities, fixed income and money markets.
2. Investing in ETFs
Significant opportunity to grow through strong performance and industry leadership, especially in active ETFs.
3. Investing in alternatives
Massive growth opportunity backed by a 60-year legacy and industry-leading distribution.
4. Investing in workplace solutions
Through acquisitions, we’ve built value for clients and growth for the firm.
5. Investing in Private Bank advisors globally
Talent plus training equals accelerated productivity growth.
6. Investing in personalization
A modern wealth platform powers customized strategies for clients.
7. Investing in technology and AI
Increasing our use cases to enable quicker decision-making and proactive client advice.
The firm is focusing on providing tailored services to meet the unique needs of each client, emphasizing the importance of personalized client experiences.
We are prioritizing digital transformation to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, leveraging technology as a critical tool.
It’s a driving force behind J.P. Morgan´s growth, with the firm continuously exploring new ideas and technologies to maintain a competitive edge.
Unverified Participant
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Please welcome to the stage, Jamie Dimon.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
All right. Jamie is going to go pretty much straight into Q&A, so get your questions ready. We'll do Betsy down there.
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QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION
Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC |
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Thank you and thank you for the very detailed outlook for how we can expect that JPMorgan is going to be growing revenues and all the whitespace opportunities each of the business units has to lean into growth.
One of the areas that was not yet discussed is crypto. And I wanted to understand, and I thought, Jamie, you were the right person to ask this question of since it touches so many different parts of JPMorgan business in the fact that we have this GENIUS Act that is in process, could be passed. And as we go through the next six months and we see some potential regulatory changes coming through on crypto, and we've already seen some that have enabled banks, given them the opportunity to do more; for example, fund – accounting fund administration in crypto. What is the plan that you have for incorporating, or not incorporating crypto into the JPMorgan wheelhouse? Thank you.
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Good one. And when you ask questions, feel free to ask anything that's on your mind. When you asked about succession, we cover that all at once, and not go back to it five different times. So we already do what – you saw Kinexys. We use blockchain for repo. We're using it for data sharing. We're going to use it for correspondent banking. It will probably be deployed eventually in anything we do where blockchain is an appropriate technology to use. We have been talking about blockchain for 12 to 15 years. We spent too much on it. It doesn't matter as much as you all think. There will be stablecoins. Central banks will look at it. It's going to be used for a bunch of things, some might compete, some might not compete. We're going to be fine either way. But the technology we can use, we're going to use, so.
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Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC |
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And crypto meaning Bitcoin, right? Would you...
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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I'm – I...
Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC |
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Would you offer that as a payment vehicle?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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We are – we – I personally, when I look at the Bitcoin universe, the leverage in the system, the misuse of the system, the AML, the BSA, the KYC, there's sex trafficking, the terrorism, I am not a fan of it. We are going to allow you to buy it and we are going to – we are not going to [ph] custody (03:31:04) it. We're going to put it on statements for clients. So I don't think you should smoke, but I defend your right to smoke. I defend you right to buy Bitcoin. Go at it. And I – nor do I think it matters that much, to tell you the truth, so. Let's see.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Okay. Steven Alexopoulos?
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Steven Alexopoulos Analyst, TD Securities |
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Hey, Jamie.
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Welcome back. I read the whole thing, like all 240 pages or...
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Steven Alexopoulos Analyst, TD Securities |
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Thank you.
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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So, welcome back.
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Steven Alexopoulos Analyst, TD Securities |
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So I asked ChatGPT, I said, which pop culture figure is most similar to Jamie Dimon? Do you want to guess what the answer was?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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I have no idea.
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Steven Alexopoulos Analyst, TD Securities |
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So the answer was Tony Stark, Iron Man. That's actually what it says if you actually plugged it in.
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Never saw the movie.
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Steven Alexopoulos Analyst, TD Securities |
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Now, what's interesting about Iron Man is Iron Man never retired. Assuming you stay healthy, why can't we get another 10 years as you as CEO? Why are we even talking about this?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Okay. So let me just do this slowly, okay, because it's important. The most important about the future of the company, in my view, is the disciplines and the culture of the place, which we don't speak a lot about. Though discipline and culture you kind of see up here a little bit, detailed analysis, a little bit humility of going on the road all the time, acknowledging, there's always competition coming from places, you don't know that – I wish I could thank everyone from JPMorgan Chase in the room who works with a lot of people. But that – those – that is the most important thing at a detailed level. There are basically 50 major businesses here, and a lot of people mention those businesses, and we're going to maintain that discipline.
I also think in the room, you have the operating committee members. I don't want to miss a name, [indiscernible] (03:32:55) Chase UK; Jen Piepszak, Chief Operating Officer; Robin Leopold, HR; Lori Beer, Tech; Teresa Heitsenrether, AI. Did I miss anyone? Ashley. I didn't happen to see Ashley here by the way. Tim Berry, Stacey Friedman, law. But the important thing is all the people you've seen, not just the ones you saw up here, but the whole next layer down, they're in constant education with those folks.
So, when we talk about return to the office or home or policies or almost every one of the folks in this room is going to Washington all the time. A lot of us – those events you saw, I mean, a lot of us go to hundreds of those events where we partner with client dinners and client meeting and client lunches. So we have built a very deep bench.
What we've told you is that the board has intent, not – it's not a promise, it's not a commitment, it's intent to be, and prudent to be thinking about succession, and we should be doing that. Obviously, it's up to the board. If I'm here for four more years and maybe two more, three executive chair or chairs, I mean, that's a long time. That's like a lot of the present value of the world. Okay, so – but to me, the most important thing when it gets hand over, you have real teams, real cultures, and hopefully they keep on building it. If you look at the best companies in the world, that's what they had. Okay. They continue going forward regardless of necessarily who the CEO was.
Any other questions on succession? Let's get them all out so we can move on to other stuff. Yeah. Michael Mayo. I hope you're right about that $1 trillion, first $1 trillion bank, so.
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Mike Mayo Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC |
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Well, why don't you retire after you get to $1 trillion? What was your answer to that last question?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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What was the question?
Mike Mayo Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC |
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How many more years are you going to be CEO?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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It's – the intent is the same as we said last year. Nothing's changed at all.
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Mike Mayo Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC |
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Okay. If you want to dream the dream with perhaps some shackles getting released and you can do whatever you want, DOYs, what would you do in terms of buying outside the US, whether it's a Canadian bank or a bank in Asia or a private equity firm and you have a lot of excess capital, you're going to have a lot more excess capital, Jeremy mentioned. Maybe doing deals. What would you...
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Yeah.
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Mike Mayo Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC |
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...if – dream the dream?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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So we should always, always be looking at acquisitions. So I'm telling the management team today, you should always be thinking about it because acquisitions make you think clearly about the world. We have a lot of adjacencies. If you said you could do something, maybe would do something overseas or something like that. Would you do a major merger if you allow to? I don't know. Maybe you would. I don't think it'll ever happen. So I'm not going to waste time thinking about what is not legal today. But there are adjacencies. You've seen in every business. Mary showed you some that were great for us. Consumer did some of the great for us. The investment banks done something great for us. I want them to think about.
That does not mean I want to overpay. It does not mean that we're pushing people to do it. My experience in life with the FRB acquisition I ever did was looked to 10, but all – looking at all 10 made us smarter. And that's why I hope we can do – and deploying cap. That's one way to deploy capital. The other way to deploy capital is in our own businesses. And you have to be very careful about how you deploy capital. I did write this down because organic growth, somebody asked the question. Organic growth could be building technology, it could be adding bankers, it could be adding balance sheet. We can add balance sheet tomorrow. We can make a few phone calls. I've got [ph] Charles (03:36:33) right down here. Putting on $100 billion at risk, take the risk, revenues go up. May have been a mistake.
In our business, I have to say this, revenues and expenses are artificial concepts that can lead you to the wrong place. Those branches and bankers that you hire are expenses, but they are long-term investments. Technology you build are expenses, and a lot of revenues are bad. If you make loans with the wrong people at the wrong time at the wrong price, it's bad. You could add revenues and you're adding a lot of risk. Lot of banks have done that with loans. They've done it with HTM secured. They've done – it is a bad idea. So growing revenues is sometimes bad. Growing revenues is sometimes good. Growing expenses is sometimes bad.
I think, either way, Jeremy did a great job today, by the way. He's maturing really nicely. I don't know if you all – but those expenses and the risk we take in a very thoughtful kind of way, we think we have organic growth opportunities. The world is a very complex place. We are in the middle of it in payment systems and Chase, Chase Wealth Management.
I also want to point out also the competition. We have to stay humble here, okay. Like, Jeremy showed you that chart about how many people have earned over 17%. And if you look at that chart over the last 10 years, it's – of those 120, of the 12 competitors, in the 10-year period, only eight or nine times that people earn over 17%. And it us, five or six of them, Capital One, et cetera, a couple of times Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, a couple of times. If you go back to the 10 years before that, okay, a lot of people earned over 17%. Almost every single one went bankrupt. Hear I just said?
So I'm not standing in front of you arrogant about JPMorgan. So I hope you're right about our superior position and stuff like that. Almost every single major financial company in the world almost didn't make it. It's a rough world out there. You had the global financial crisis. I started work in 1982 as the worst recession since 1974. You had the 1987 market crash. 1990 took Citi to its knees, it took Travelers to its knees. So we're conscious. Our competition is all back. Wells Fargo is back, Bank of America is back, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley. But we also have Citadel, fintech, Revolut, and that – so we are conscious of that. We've got all – Stripe has done a great job, PayPal's done a great job. Bank of America, believe it not, does a few things better than us, which always pisses me off.
Yeah, so we are quite conscious. There's a lot of competition and you have to be prepared every day to make the investment you need to do in your people, your systems, your ops, your culture and stuff like that to actually win. And we're – so I'm convinced we can do it, but we will not do it resting on our laurels.
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Mike Mayo Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC |
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So you just described reversion to the mean. So why would you be different than these other...
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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I don't think we're going revert to the mean. I think we're – I think you saw why: discipline, detailed, cultural, we fight every day, we don't assume we're going to win. We know the competition is coming at us a lot of different ways.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Steven Chubak in the back there.
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Steven Joseph Chubak Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC |
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Hi, Jamie. You had that great slide showing where in detail the ROTC simulation under different macro scenarios. And one scenario that in here is a severe stagflation scenario, which is somewhat ironic given how much you've spoken about that potential risk...
Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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We have that one, too, by the way.
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Steven Joseph Chubak Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC |
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Okay. Well, how do you...
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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We look at lots of scenarios. He just put up some, but yeah.
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Steven Joseph Chubak Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC |
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So in that scenario, though, how would the returns fare and how are you risk managing the entire franchise to ensure you're adequately protected against that risk?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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So let me just talk about risk for just one – roughly. I'm not going to talk a lot about geopolitical risk. I would not take it off the table. I think there's an operating assumption inside the room that it's not a big deal, it's not going to cause a problem. I don't know. I think the geopolitical risk is very, very, very high. How it plays out over the next several years, we don't know, but it will clearly, if it does play out worse than what you have today, it'd clearly affect all the scenarios. So we do look it the range of potential outcomes. I think the worst one for a bank and for most companies is stagflation which is basically a recession with inflation. I think the odds of that are probably two times of the market things. I don't know what's going to happen. We will be fine, okay.
What happens in that is credit losses go up. They will not be like the global financial crisis. I think credit losses in a recession will be worse than other people think. I think there have been 15 years of pretty happy go lucky credit, a lot of new credit players, different covenants, different leverage ratios, there's leverage on top of leverage in some of these things. So I think I would expect that credit would be worse than people think when you have a recession. But what happens in a stagflation is revenues drop, credit losses go up, and then how you manage your balance sheet. But we'll be fine. The one – the worst case there, it would probably stimulate closer to stagflation.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Glenn Schorr.
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Glenn Paul Schorr Analyst, Evercore Group LLC |
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Thanks very much. As we look – as we listened to all those presentations, there's a lot of global expansion across everything, Payments, Cards, Markets, Trading, everything. So, the question is – or my question is, is the question about the potential for nationalism and non-US clients keep – keeping some business that used to go to great banks like JPMorgan more internally with local? Like is this a real conversation? I know some of the tariff talk has cooled, but now that it's opened the door, you're seeing more spending locally in Europe, things like that. Do we have a risk that, through no fault of your own, some business that a US bank used to get just doesn't get it anymore?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Yeah, no, I – [ph] further (03:42:51) we have specific examples we've lost business because of that. Not because the clients were mad at us, but because they said we have a choice to pick you. We're going to not use you, whether it's a Canadian bank or a European bank or something. It's not that big. It's not that significant. I wouldn't change our plans at all fearing that what you just said. The plans are exactly the same. I do expect there'll be some of that if this trade war gets worse, but it's not going to change our plans.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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And we have a question way back in there.
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Brent Erensel Analyst, Portales Partners |
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Hi. Brent Erensel, Portales Partners. With all the talk about deregulation and capital relief, could you tell us what's the appropriate level of capital for JPMorgan and for the industry? Give us some talking points on what you see as kind of coming down the way.
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Well, I think the best way for you to think about, as Jeremy showed you that the cap – we're already $60 billion more. If all things sort out, that should be at least – it should be at least $60 billion. I can give you a lot of arguments why it should be more than $60 billion. I don't think the regulators have ever told you about how they really think about capital. I mean, when I look at – and what disappoints me the most, and you saw that chart that Jeremy put up there, G-SIFI, SLR, eSLR, TLAC, NSFS. A lot of that was never well thought through. You, not us, were entitled to a cost benefit study. You never really got it. You were entitled to understand what the goal was.
There should have been statements about if I was the bank regulator, we want mortgages outside the banking system is 80% today. We want private credit outside, we want leverage lending outside. We don't want payments inside. There's huge arbitrage taking place today. That arbitrage isn't all a disadvantage to us. We do it too. So these guys are always making arbitrage. We're lending money to people where you can have higher returns on regulatory capital, which I will tell you is no – is artificial. We look at the real [indiscernible] (03:44:42) that. So, yeah, and it – nothing was a capital – Silicon Valley Bank wasn't a capital issue. First Republic wasn't a capital. They were more like liquidity and how they managed their balance sheet which was staring regulators in the face.
The biggest disappoint to me is that I think we can make the system far safer, more fail safe, give clients better options, lower mortgages, lower cost et cetera, and make the system safer. We have had no real conversation with regulators for a decade over that, okay. And that's what they should do. And Jeremy said, they should take a step back, think about what they did, why they did it, how the interface plays. He mentioned G-SIFI. They were supposed to fix G-SIFI 10 years ago; Basel III, 10 years in the making. Okay, a lot of these – and a lot of these calculations, which I've mentioned before, are completely asinine. And if they ever were able to get out of their own echo chamber and look at it, we could do a better job in the financial system.
In the meantime, JPMorgan will do fine. It doesn't affect what these guys – what we all do every day up here: serving clients, doing a good job, we'll be able to navigate whatever the regulatory rules are. I think Marianne said something like, if the rules apply to them and they apply to us, we're probably always fine. I don't like the arbitrage by that. I think that causes other problems down the road. Nor do I think they've done a full study about what risk they've created elsewhere in the system. And Jeremy mentioned, he said, they shouldn't de facto – not de facto – ad-hoc intervene in the marketplace.
So, SLR for example, only one or two banks today are constrained by SLR; no one else is. Therefore, today, SLR isn't a reason that people would go in and intermediate more in the marketplace. However, that may change when rules change and collateral changes and asset prices change, where people become constrained by SLR. The – if I was the Fed, I would not want to run a financial system every time there is a kerfuffle in the marketplace they have to intervene. And they are kerfuffles.
The other thing that's is very important and sort of pressing the room, the reason they should do a [ph] right (03:46:57) isn't to benefit when people say, they are trying reducing regulation to banks. Whether they fix SLR or not will not affect JPMorgan's results for its shareholders. JPMorgan can easily handle volatile markets. The reason you don't want volatile markets is because volatile markets scare the shit out of you and make it harder for companies to raise money. It's not to benefit JPMorgan. So, if I was the regulator, I'd be thinking long and hard about why they need to fix these things. I've mentioned over and over, the cost of mortgages is like 50 basis points or 75 basis points higher because of regulations that don't need to be there, that have no benefit for safety and soundness.
And you know what hurts the most? Lower income Americans. That's what hurts the most. People buying a small home, their first starter home. And I think they should fix it, and I have a huge disappointment that we have not gone around doing that in the last 10 years.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Ebrahim, go ahead.
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Ebrahim H. Poonawala Analyst, BofA Securities, Inc. |
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Just a follow-up to that. 100 days into the new administration, we have Michelle Bowman getting through the nomination process. You've been through what's happened in the last 15 years. Are you optimistic based on the conversations you had that you're going to get it right over the next couple of years and the industry will be on a better level, playing field against non-bank competitors?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Again, I'm not worried about – we're going to compete because we're JPMorgan. But yes, I think that the Secretary of Treasury, the President of the United States, the new Head of the OCC, the new Head of the CFPB, Michelle Bowman, Federal Reserve and the SEC have all made it clear to you that they want to fix some of things they think are broken. I think they'll accomplish some of that. Some will take longer than others and – but they all want to do it.
The other thing which again, for all of you in the room, which I find a huge disappointment, we've gone from 8,000 public companies in 1996 to 4,000 today, these operating companies. That number, if you went to around the world, is pretty much the same in markets around the world. We are driving companies out of the public marketplace because of expensive reporting, litigation, cookie cutter approaches to boards, compensation, a litigation that surrounds being a public company. If you – it cost too much money. We've eliminated [indiscernible] (03:49:21) at the old NASDAQ markets. Smaller companies going public have more access to capital with simpler reporting requirements. That's what we've done.
Do you think – do you all think that's a good thing? I don't think so, but I haven't heard a regulator talk about that at all. And it's not just the one regulation, not just SEC. It's a whole blanket of things why people do not want to be public. I would love to be a private company.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Any questions? Buy siders are allowed to ask questions, too, by the way. All right [ph] Steven (03:50:07), go ahead.
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[indiscernible] (03:50:11) for 20 years [indiscernible] (03:50:12) couldn't ask questions, so got to get my questions...
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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That's correct. Yes. But you always help [indiscernible] (03:50:16) in those 20 years, so.
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That's right. Jamie, beyond the tariffs, so the initial rollout was a little haphazard, but if you look how it's playing out and you're getting all these investments, what just happened last week, coming into the US from countries and companies, how do you put this together? Now, are these good talking points or do you see somewhat of a new industrial revolution really which would help the bank immensely over the next like two decades?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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I never finished my [ph] risk deck (03:50:48). So geopolitics, we have the largest peacetime deficit we've ever had, almost 7% of GDP. If you go around the world, the other major countries, around 3.5% of GDP. Our debt to GDP is 100%. With Paul Volcker, we had inflation last time around it was 35%, and the inflation was 3.5%. The last time we put in 10% tariffs was 1971. Nixon was President. Things were booming. He was winning a landslide, 1972, 60% – almost 60% of the popular vote. And he resigned. And 18 months later, inflation has ticked up to 3.5%. They put in price controls. It didn't work. They got rid of gold convertibility. The market had gone – went from 1,000 to 540, down 40% plus in a 18-month period. Okay. Things happen out there.
We have huge deficits. We have, what I consider, complacent central – almost complacent that central banks think they're omnipotent, and you all think they can manage through all this. I don't think they manage all that. Okay. They set short-term rates, right? They can simply plug a short-term rate. I would just say, they set short-term rates. They don't set the 10-year rate. Who sets the 10-year rate?
You do. Foreigners own $35 trillion of US public securities as debt, corporate credit, money market funds and US debt. They're going to help set that rate. And I look at the things being up, including trade, trade in general, because not just tariffs, it's creating a lot of risk out there and that you – we should be prepared for it.
My own view is we're – people feel pretty good because you haven't seen an effect of tariffs. The market came down 10%. It's back up 10%. I think that's an extraordinary amount of complacency. That's my own view that when I've seen all these things adding up that are on the fringes of extreme kind of thing, I don't think we can predict the outcome, and I think there is a chance of inflation going and stagflation a little bit higher than other people think. There's – there are too many things out there. And I think you are going to see the effect even if they – even if these low levels, they stay where they are today, that's pretty extreme tariffs. And you also don't know how every country is going to respond. And they are responding. I mean, they're already starting to cut trade deals with other people, et cetera. And even if you want to bring manufacturing back, it takes three to four, at minimum, to build a real manufacturing plant, years.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Yeah. Richard Ramsden, go ahead.
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Richard Ramsden Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC |
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There's been a lot of discussion about changes to the regulatory environment, but can you talk about if you're expecting changes to the supervisory environment, what you'd like to see change on the supervisory front and what that could mean for JPMorgan and the industry if you get those changes? Thanks.
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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I think the – I mean, they almost merged at one point because supervisors have put in rules and rules and rules and MRIAs and stuff, which were regulations. Okay, so – and you probably are aware of some of them. I think it's already changed a lot that people realize that there was a lot of supervision. It was duplicated.
I mean, I'll give you one example. Dodd-Frank asked the Federal Reserve to do a stress test. They didn't ask them to build a CCAR regulatory system which would take us, I mean, 6000 people working six months a year, 30,000, 40,000 pages of documentation, models, rules, regulation, including climate, a reputation around clients. That was never the intent. And I actually think it put the Federal Reserve in the middle of regulatory supervisory, so – which they should have stayed away from. They should have stuck to monetary policy and managing the whole financial system kind of according to Kevin Warsh's speech.
So, yeah, I think you're going to see a lot of changes in supervision, and I think you're going to – and matter of fact, there's a act out there that says that we will have an ability to dispute publically legally supervisor activity, which I think will be very good. I think they went way – I think they went so far beyond what was reasonable that they should be embarrassed. That's my own personal view. It's been 15 years of this stuff. And I think they should fire a lot of them too, by the way.
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Mike Mayo Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC |
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For that last answer, can you put some numbers around it? If you were king of regulation and you don't want to sacrifice one iota of safety and soundness and then eliminate as much bureaucracy and red tape as possible, where would your capital ratios be and how much better could your efficiency ratio be?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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I mean, I think the efficiency – I don't know, Mike. So $60 billion of excess capital. Might be $20 billion more that's possible, okay. My view about the costs, as the costs come down, [ph] if (03:55:51) we all had to do, it would be passed down to customers. It isn't like we just add endlessly to our own margins, because as Jeff Bezos says, your margin is my opportunity. So if they reduce their cost, you will see it in lower cost of mortgages and auto and commercial real estate credits, et cetera. Won't be, aha, banks are back again.
I want banks to be safe. I would limit interest rate exposure more. I would limit HTM more. I would make sure that deposits are spread out a certain way. I would make sure people had assets that were deliverable to the discount window. I would make the discount window usable. I would make FHLB usable. You may not know this. In resolution recovery, the discount window doesn't count. I mean, I can go on and on through the inconsistencies and stuff like that which drives business as a banking system. It creates arbitrage opportunity. It creates additional risk. But I don't think it's going to be – I don't think we're going to be sitting here in four years and saying, we have higher returns to evolve this.
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Mike Mayo Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC |
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And your CEO letter...
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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I think the system would be better because of all this.
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Mike Mayo Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC |
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Your CEO letter talks a lot about having a more level playing field. And has it gotten worse, better? Where do you stand on that? Thank you.
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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It will get better. I think it will get better over time, but I don't know. I think, again, I – JPMorgan will perform for shareholders, whether it gets better or not. Again, if everyone gets – if we all had the same rules and regulations, we'd all benefit the same. So my competition gets it the same way I get it. So I'm not saying you're saying this is going to be great. I think it's a mistake for you all to think that somehow the margins in the business will go up. No. When people compete with each, those margin will be competed away. The people who would perform the best are people who run the best businesses.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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All right. Go ahead in the back.
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So, I think there has been a ongoing discussion around whether American exceptionalism is going to triumph in a changing world of geopolitical dynamics. If you look at equity market performance, I think European equity market and emerging market has outperformed the US year-to-date. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts whether you still have this belief in terms of the attractiveness of the financial market in US versus rest of the world.
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Yeah. Well, it's a little more of a complex question. So, I do believe in American exceptionalism. I am a patriot. America has the gifts of God, food, water, energy, the [ph] Atlantic (03:58:15), the Pacific, peace, peace with our neighbors, Canada and Mexico, which we treat very respectfully. We are quite lucky. Then we have the gifts of our founding fathers, the freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of enterprise. Those freedoms are enormous. They drive the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen, the best military the world has ever seen. I think that's all still true.
I never believed we were as exceptional as people were saying. I never believed that Europe was as bad as people were saying. I think those got blown out of proportion. Part of our exceptionalism – is my belief; I don't know if it's true – is that we borrowed and spent $10 trillion, and that – and that's a lot of money. We borrowed and spent since 2000, $10 trillion. If we borrowed another $1 trillion and gave it to you – and we gave it to people, we gave it through PPP, EIDL, unemployment insurance, we gave it to states, cities, we gave it to unions, $10 trillion, and that fuels both inflation, but it fuels growth. Had the Europe borrowed and spent another $1 trillion, they would probably have another $1 trillion of GDP too.
So, if there's a part of that. We haven't seen the other side of that mountain yet. And also, we have to remember, in the back of my mind, it also drives corporate profits. That trillion ends up in the pockets of restauranteurs and corporations and healthcare companies, and it drives a lot of things that maybe we don't understand and inflates asset prices. So, America's asset price, I still think they are kind of high; I'd put that in the risk category too. And credit spreads are kind of low; I'd put that in the risk category too. I think both of those things may change and that will change your psyche a little bit and so.
But the asset – our P/E ratios are, what, 21 or something like that today, forward looking? And if tariffs affect that, which I think they might a little bit, the E will come down. Right now the forecast for earnings, we started the year S&P up 12%, now it's up 6% or 7%. My guess is in six month, they'll be zero because people will be working through, and you've heard a lot of companies talk about guidance, I can't give you, I don't have the costs, I don't know I can pass them on, I don't know – I didn't even know what they're going to be. But I think earnings estimates will come down, which also means probably the P/E will come down. If P/E comes down one turn, that's another 5%. So now you're talking about 10% between earnings and the P/E. And I think that's probably a likely outcome in my own personal opinion. I don't like to forecast the stock market.
I think the P/Es in Europe – is Michael Cembalest here? He is the one you should always read about this. I think the P/Es in Europe are a lot lower. I mean a lot lower, like 30% or 40% lower. Meaning there could be some very good values there on a company, I don't think in general, they've got a stronger economy than the United States. I think that Europe has to do a lot of things which they know. And you finally see Keir Starmer, President Macron, Chancellor Merz, President Tusk all talking about we've got to fix Europe. They should fix it for themselves, the regulatory environment, the innovative environment. And they've got to strengthen their military relationships in NATO, which I hope America stands by them side by side, which I think we will, by the way, even though it get questioned more and more. Does that answer your question?
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Down there.
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Timothy Paul Piechowski Analyst, ACR Alpine Capital Research LLC |
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Hello, Jamie. Tim Piechowski from ACR from St. Louis. Kind of was interested in maybe some more commentary from you on private credits. Warren Buffett has spoken about private credit ripping into life insurance and causing liquidity mismatch going forward. Could you maybe talk about any concern you have on that and just the general, I don't know, perhaps credit spreads or terms being too [ph] laxed (04:02:09)?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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So, I mean, I wrote about this in my Chairman's letter. I did it last year. I always look at things from being honest assessments, so I'm not trying to say it's good or bad. It is good for – I look at the world from the point of view of the consumer. So if you're a consumer or a middle market company, and there's mostly leverage. So it's $1.7 trillion of leverage lending that are now going to investment grade, which I'll talk about separately. If you can get a unitranche deal, that's pretty good. Flexible coverage, that's not so bad. Maybe a lender will work with you if things are tough. That's okay too. It lacks – it's more expense, like 200 basis points more expensive, and you've seen when rates went up, a lot – people went from direct lending back into the syndicated lending markets, all right. It lacks transparency. That could be good or bad. People don't have lot of liquidity against it. That could be one thing.
The other, I think the people, if they were up here about the insurance credit, they'd say, we're doing five-year annuities and we're actually matching the terms, the maturity of the loans with the maturity of liabilities. But there's less liquidity, huge arbitrage. If I have to take a private credit loan in my balance sheet, I have to hold somewhere between 20% more capital to 80%. When it goes in insurance companies, you may not know this, they tranche it. So it's not just they do a BB loan, but they tranche it between AAA, AA that – and the total credit they owe – capital they owe might be 20% what JPMorgan has to hold, because we do it differently.
I'm not sure that I'll survive the next downturn because I think NAIC will look at that and say, my God, these loans, we should never have allowed that kind of thing inside an insurance company. So because the insurance companies rate them differently, that may not survive the next downturn, and I think people assume that it does, so.
We are agnostic. And Troy already mentioned it. We want to offer our clients direct loans, syndicated loans. As long as we're underwriting the risk properly, we're doing it properly, we can do them too. That's why we have the $50 billion we're willing to do on balance sheet. We could do $100 billion, we could do $200 billion, if we thought we're getting very good returns, because that's just deploying the capital which you all said we have excess capital. Even $200 billion, we only deploy $20 billion of excess capital, and if we're earning a good return on the loan, and Troy, you mentioned this, we can get Payments business, custody business, other banking services, maybe Markets business et cetera.
So we can compete in all these things, and so I'm not worried about it. They are going to investment grade and now you're starting to see private – and by the way, the direct lending is all being syndicated out now too. So a lot of these bigger deals you see, it's kind of a bridge. They underwrite it, but they immediately syndicate it, like we will and some of our core lending terms is definitely like that. So this will develop overtime.
I – my own – the other – but the only other view is personally, there's – and I don't like making forecasts, stuff like that, I am not a buyer of credit today. I think credit today is a bad risk. I think that people who haven't been through major downturns are missing the point about what can happen in credit. And then there will be a huge opportunity for this company, too. That's the other thing about downturns. In a downturn, my experience has always been, the good companies benefit from a downturn. Not your short-term profits, but your long-term company, and you earn your stripes with your clients in a downturn.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Okay. Any last questions before we break for lunch?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Yeah, [ph] Mike (04:05:39), there's one way back. Go ahead.
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Mikael Grubb Head-Investor Relations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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Okay.
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Thank you. The comments on the technology infrastructure transition being mostly done in [ph] past peak (04:05:49) were very interesting. Over the next...
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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I don't think it's mostly done, but keep on. Yeah.
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Okay. Well, then that might be answering the question. So over the next few years, do you see the JPMorgan tech spend becoming more variable with growth or is it still a table stakes type characteristic?
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Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
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It's stable stakes. It will be for the rest of eternity. So our tech spend, I think, is, call it, 10% of revenues which are probably less than most other companies by the way. But in my experience, I think people make a mistake like somehow you're in one transformation and when you get through it, you're done. I've been doing this for a while and I've been through transformation after transformation after transformation, and we're learning.
So when they – when we say we're [ph] like (04:06:31) done, that's moving applications to public or private cloud, you could question where it's better off. Remember, we said compute power would be cheap here. Well, that burst compute power we [ph] talked about (04:06:42) years ago, you've got to pay for capacity. That's very different than burst compute power where data goes, belongs. And so the rest of the journey is getting data – the hardest part is getting data into the form where it can be used properly and where these things belong.
So we're doing everything. We're building our own cloud-based data centers. We have our virtual servers. We are using all these other folks. We're going to be quite cautious on software-as-a-service, how we deal with cloud providers. I don't mind doing anything ourselves. And we have regulations. We've got international laws. All around the world, countries write different rules, but we have to do in the country and outside the country, et cetera. So I think it's a permanent thing and I think the mindset should be that whenever management teams meet, you're talking about what you need to do in technology writ large to do a good job for your client. It should not be a surprise that you have to use technology to do a better job for clients.
And AI is another one. I think AI is real by the way, right, but part of that's the mindset. And we talk about AI all the time at every different level.
Can I just end? I just want to say a few things. For all the JPMorgan Chase people in the room, what you do for your clients, I get the biggest kick working [ph] at (04:07:55) all of them. We all know each other quite well. So inside this company, I wish you could see how people do function, talk and debate in an open way, how we do things. And obviously, I want to thank all the operating committee members and those unfortunate 11 or 12 have to deal with me every Monday morning, having read all the things over the weekend and kind of get me irritated. But they help build a great company and they disseminate this culture. We all travel around the world, we meet clients, we deal with each other, we write notes about what we can do better, we take bus trips and road trips. They all go to Washington DC and see regulators around the world.
I want to think the board. The board's here, by the way. I thought it was – thank you for coming. I think it's a great – probably – this is probably better than actually going to a board meeting if I bore you guys, at a board meeting. But to just see our folks in action. And the board, you should rest assured, talks every time. They are told everything by everybody. They – all the senior leader people, they all present. I have never – I don't think I've ever made a presentation to the board at last now in the last 10 years or 15 years.
Our people do. They have an open conversation, you know them personally and professionally, I think is very important. They talk about governance rules. I think there's – there are two important governance rules which the regulators completely missed, by the way. Totally. Absolutely, because they're not stuck in the real world. They're stuck in some academic world that the board knows all the senior people, openly getting feedback and everything all the time on their own. There's not – not every board meeting is scripted and they get to see those people at lunch, dinner or take them to golf if they want, et cetera.
And the second, which I think is maybe the most important, is for – since I've been at Bank One, they meet with – without me. I – we have an executive session and I leave the room. They meet without me every single meeting to talk about what they're thinking about. And there's Lead Director and Steve Burke today, but usually he calls me up afterwards. David Novak used to give me handwritten lists, what they'd like more. They'd like to know this person better, they're a little worried about this. Can you give us more detail on that? Nothing to report, whatever it is. But I think it allows them to have a very open conversation. So I just want to thank the board for the effort they make for this company.
And Daniel Pinto, what a great partner he's been all these years. It's Daniel – that world-class investment bank and world-class risk management system's because of Daniel. Thank you. Folks, we'll see you at lunch. Thank you.
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Despite facing competition from traditional banks and fintech companies, the firm is committed to maintaining its leadership position by making strategic investments, strengthening client relationships and actively pursuing global expansion, particularly in growth sectors such as payments.
The emphasis on culture and teamwork is crucial for success. Maintaining discipline and a strong organizational culture is vital for future growth, with a focus on developing a deep bench of leadership within the organization.
The firm is well prepared to navigate potential geopolitical risks and economic downturns, supported by strong risk management strategies that ensure stability and resilience.
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