Investment Strategy

The case against gold and why it’s wrong

 Key takeaways:

  • Gold’s remarkable rally has been underpinned by sustained central bank accumulation and increased retail demand.
  • Retail investors continue to view gold as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, though their impact on long-term pricing is modest.
  • While risks exist—such as a slowdown in central bank buying or retail sell-offs—we believe gold retains its role as a strategic diversifier within portfolios.

Gold has had a ferocious rally over the last five years, skyrocketing over 170%.

Yet 2026 has also brought volatility alongside the gains—gold spiked to record highs near $5,400 in late January before a sharp selloff, then rebounded back above $5,000.

There’s a laundry list of reasons why, but the biggest driver may be a new era of geopolitical volatility and fragmentation incentivising investors to buy the precious metal. Now add on worries about currency debasement, inflation, and stretched fiscal finances that haven’t been fully reflected in sovereign assets. It’s no wonder that the precious metal has been a popular asset for investors during times of stress. After all, history echoes the same: it’s averaged a return of 1.8% and a median of 3.0% during major geopolitical shocks, outperforming other asset classes.

We continue to believe in gold’s momentum. Yet, to challenge the consensus, we ask: what could stops gold’s rally?

Risk: Central banks slow their buying spree

One of the biggest drivers of gold prices has been central banks. Central banks have fuelled demand for the precious metal in efforts to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar. The top five largest holders of gold outside of the IMF are the United States, Germany, Italy, France, and Russia.

Herein lies the worry: What if that structural demand from global central banks waned? Or, what if they wanted to outright sell the commodity?

It has happened before. From 1999-2002, the United Kingdom carried out a series of public auctions to sell over 50% of its gold holdings and diversify its reserves into foreign currencies. During the same time, Switzerland voted to delink the Swiss franc from gold. Gold prices fell over 10% in the three months following the UK’s announcement—a move equivalent to an over $650 drop in today’s terms. The selling only stopped after several central banks signed The Washington Agreement on Gold to coordinate and cap large, price-moving gold sales. The agreement lapsed in 2019 as central banks largely became buyers of gold, not sellers. In theory, that means sales are still possible. As is plateauing demand.

We think this is unlikely to happen. At least, not anytime soon. Here’s why.

As of 2025, gold has made up ~19% of emerging market reserves, relative to ~47% of developed markets reserves. Among the emerging markets piling into the precious metal, China stands out. The country has actively been rotating its reserve assets into gold. If the trend continues, China has a lot more gold reserve purchases in the pipeline. And it’s not alone. Poland, India, and Brazil have also been driving the structural demand.

For G-10 central banks, there has been no indication that gold sales are being considered. Even for the Federal Reserve, it would first require large legislative changes and a major break with over a century of precedent. Furthermore, in 2025, 95% of central banks expected global gold holdings to increase with 5% saying unchanged, and none of the respondents expecting a decrease, according to a YouGov/World Gold Council poll.

Risk: Retail investors turn their backs

Don’t forget retail investors. They’ve been flocking to the metal too. These new buyers are often building a position as a hedge against rising geopolitical risks and macro uncertainty.

Retail activity is high, but not outrageous compared to history. ETF holdings of gold (a good proxy for retail interest) stand at ~100 million ounces, the equivalent of only ~8% of global central bank holdings. It’s still below the record ~110 million ounces recorded in 2020 and while it could increase, retail activity isn’t in a position to set prices over the long term.

What it means for you

In addition to hedging against short-term geopolitical risks, gold has shown itself to be a long-term diversifier. It’s an asset that can outperform during drawdowns, and reduce overall portfolio volatility given its relatively low correlation to other assets. While short-term swings are possible, we continue to have conviction that it can be a strategic addition to portfolios.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

All market and economic data as of February 2026 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.
  • All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.
  • Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities. The value of commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Investing in commodities creates an opportunity for increased return but, at the same time, creates the possibility for greater loss.

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