Investment Strategy

5 catalysts for 2026

  Key takeaways:

  • Strong, broad-based earnings growth—including and beyond AI—underlines our conviction that stock markets will reach new highs in 2026.
  • While politics and policy can dominate headlines and drive uncertainty, it is economic fundamentals that ultimately determine market returns.
  • Global fragmentation is driving governments to prioritise infrastructure and strategic industry resilience, boosting ‘National Champions’.
  • Diverging central bank actions are creating attractive opportunities for unconstrained global fixed income strategies.

2026 is kicking off with a bang.

Earnings season starts this week. The AI trade is fragmenting. Geopolitical tensions are front and centre, with headlines spanning Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland. US midterms are on the horizon, and questions around Fed independence are intensifying. Below, we run through 5 catalysts set to drive markets this year—and how to position for what’s next.

1) Earnings

Earnings season kicks off this week with reports for the final quarter of 2025. Major banks will lead the first wave.

Why it matters: The S&P 500’s 18% surge last year was powered by resilient profits that defied 2025’s challenges, with only 3% of those gains from higher valuations. Analysts expect Q4 earnings to have climbed over 8% year-on-year—the tenth straight quarter of year-on-year growth. And in a rare show of confidence, estimates have risen heading into reporting, reversing the usual trend of cuts.

Momentum looks set to continue. The Street sees 15% earnings growth for all of 2026, marking three straight years of double-digit gains. Tech remains a key driver, but this isn’t dot-com 2.0: price-to-earnings growth ratios for the sector have been a reasonable 1x-3x in recent years, far below dotcom-era extremes of 4x-8x. Strength is also broadening, with 7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors set for close to double-digit profit growth or more this year.

What to do: Position for a broader rally. While volatility and pullbacks are inevitable, we expect 2026 to end higher, with conviction across technology, utilities, financials, healthcare, and industrials.

2) AI

The AI trade is fragmenting—and it won’t be a straight climb up. That’s a healthy sign of market discernment. After two years of rapid spending, hyperscalers are still driving large-scale capex, but a slower pace is natural and opens new avenues for growth.

Some worry about bubble risk. Yet, while valuations are high, they’re backed by real earnings—tech sector profits jumped over 20% in the last two years and that’s set to repeat in 2026. AI demand is outpacing supply, with data centre vacancies at record lows, providing a natural check as infrastructure buildout is in its nascent stages. AI leaders are also largely scaling with cash flow, not risky debt; most direct AI firms have very low leverage, representing half the S&P 500’s market cap but just 5% of its net debt, with many showing net debt to EBITDA below zero.

What to do: Consider investing across the entire AI ecosystem—hyperscalers, infrastructure, companies monetising AI, and private market innovators.

3) Geopolitics

Geopolitical flashpoints are accelerating global fragmentation, but history shows it’s economic fundamentals that drive market returns. Even dramatic events over the last year—like US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and this month’s actions in Venezuela—have barely moved oil prices. Similarly, tariffs had a far less onerous impact than feared last year, largely thanks to exemptions and carve-outs to support strategic sectors.

Looking ahead, markets expect IEEPA tariffs to be eliminated, potentially offering economic relief but tightening government finances. Tariffs will likely persist in some form, with replacements possibly more targeted—especially as US midterm elections approach. To that end, if history is a guide, US midterms point to a divided government ahead, a backdrop that could reduce policy tail risks. Meanwhile, Europe faces key elections in Spain, Germany, France, Italy, and Denmark, testing far-right momentum and territorial concerns.

What to do: Politics rarely justify changing long-term investment plans, with the market impact often fleeting. Still, rising tensions can boost demand for safe havens—gold, for example, surged over 60% in 2025.

4) Policy

While politics shouldn’t derail your plan, policy shifts can have a meaningful impact on growth and inflation. Governments are stepping up, using fiscal policy to actively back strategic sectors. Since 2020, global policy moves favouring domestic industry have more than tripled, and budget deficits are running much larger than fundamentals alone would otherwise suggest.

Priorities also differ regionally: Europe is ramping up infrastructure and defence, with every NATO ally set to meet or exceed the 2% GDP defence-spending target in 2025. China is investing heavily in semiconductors to close its tech gap with the US. And in the US, rising tax refunds should add $50–$100 billion to disposable income, offering support to consumer spending and business investment.

What to do: The pivot is powering “National Champions” tied to national and economic security priorities—especially in industrials, technology, and healthcare. We see plenty of room for these names to run.

5) Central banks

Central banks are breaking ranks. After last year’s wave of global rate cuts, most are now shifting gears—7 of 9 major developed market central banks we track are signalling hikes, while only the US and UK are expected to cut. We expect this split to persist through 2026, with the Fed likely to cut once more and the ECB holding steady.

It’s also worth noting the re-emergence of questions around Fed independence. Chair Powell is now facing a DOJ investigation over the Fed’s recent headquarter renovations. That comes as President Trump could announce Powell’s replacement any day (given his term is set to end in May), with betting markets currently fluctuating between former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Adding to the mix, the Supreme Court is set to hear the Lisa Cook case on 21 January. All this could put upward pressure on longer-term bond yields as markets price in the uncertainty.

What to do: Unconstrained “go anywhere” fixed income managers can capitalise on policy divergences, while Fed independence concerns reinforce our conviction in gold and real assets as potential hedges.

What it means for you

All that to say, stay constructive but mindful. Our base case keeps us leaning pro-growth, while our risk analysis guides us on where to size carefully, what to diversify with, and what we want to own if the path gets bumpier. Your J.P. Morgan team is here to plan with you for the year ahead.

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All market and economic data as of January 2026 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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While pressure points remain, we see more promise ahead—here’s why, according to the catalysts.

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