Investment Strategy

Shutdowns, shocks, & stock market highs: 3 big questions for investors

Key takeaways:

Despite political drama and mixed economic signals, resilient fundamentals—driven by solid, even if slowing, growth, tech breakthroughs, and proactive government spending—are tilting the scales for investors.
Political gridlock and fiscal challenges are eroding confidence, but their slow-moving nature means it’s more important to build resilient, diversified portfolios than to react to every headline.
Impending Fed rate cuts highlight the risks of holding cash; staying invested and focusing on long-term trends like AI and infrastructure may help turn uncertainty into future growth.

Political drama abounds—a US government shutdown, leadership shake-up in Japan, and fresh turmoil in France. Add mixed economic signals, and you’d expect investors to be cautious.

Yet, global stocks hit record highs last week, powered by tech breakthroughs and stimulus enthusiasm.

A handful of Europe’s indices hit records in anticipation of Germany’s fiscal plan gearing up, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 followed suit despite slower US hiring and shutdown-related delays. AI powered the rally—Meta and Microsoft boosted computing spend, and chipmakers soared after OpenAI’s valuation reached $500 billion, overtaking SpaceX as the world’s most valuable start-up.

That stands in contrast to cautionary headlines:

French PM Sébastien Lecornu resigned on Monday after just 27 days in office, pushing France’s borrowing premium over Germany to its highest since late 2024.
Japan’s Sanae Takaichi clinched party leadership over the weekend, now set to become the first female prime minister. Her pro-stimulus stance pared back BoJ rate hike bets, sending the yen lower—while the Nikkei hit record highs.
The US government shutdown—now in its sixth day—is affecting a quarter of federal spending and furloughing 40% of civilian employees. Last week also notably marked six months since Trump’s tariff ‘Liberation Day’.

So what’s driving the disconnect?

Investors are balancing headline risks—policy shifts and fiscal challenges—against the potential for resilient growth (even if slowing), tech breakthroughs, and proactive government spending, all fuelling more resilient fundamentals. Markets aren’t blind—France’s CAC 40 is down 1.3% this morning—but resilience stands out, with the broader Euro Stoxx 50 about flat by comparison. Underlying strength is pushing markets forward, while risks surface in the most sensitive corners.

Three questions are at the heart of today’s risks:

1. Has political dysfunction become a genuine risk?

Political disruptions—shutdowns, resignations, surprise leadership changes—are now almost routine. From Washington to Paris to Tokyo, investors are questioning governments’ ability to find compromise, eroding confidence in their capacity to deliver stability and reform.

The risk isn’t lost on markets: long-term sovereign bond yields have risen in debt-heavy countries as investors demand more compensation for fiscal uncertainty.

Take the US government shutdown. Like past episodes, we expect markets to shrug off the uncertainty, with the economic impact likely modest. But the real risk isn’t short-term disruption or a sudden debt crisis—it’s governments’ reluctance to make tough fiscal choices, such as raising taxes or cutting entitlements.

For instance, the US could reduce its debt burden (tax collections are low by OECD standards), but political appetite is lacking. France may be a cautionary tale: Lecornu is the fifth PM in two years to fall to budget battles, leaving President Macron with tough choices—appoint another PM, call snap elections, or step down ahead of 2027.

Over time, persistent deficits could tempt governments to ‘inflate away’ debt (like after WWII), risking higher and more volatile inflation.

Takeaway: Fiscal risk is slow-moving but still matters for portfolio construction. Stickier inflation makes it harder to protect purchasing power, driving bigger swings in bonds and higher share-bond correlations. That means building resilience is still key: we favour quality credit, gold, infrastructure for inflation-linked income, and hedge funds for diversification.

2. Why is the Fed cutting rates despite still-high inflation?

Investors expect another Fed rate cut this month. Here’s the trade-off:

US job growth has slowed sharply, with the three-month average under 30,000, down from nearly 170,000 last year.
Tariffs are raising prices, with US consumers expected to eventually absorb about two-thirds of the cost, up from half. However, inflation isn’t spreading out: energy prices are flat, and shelter inflation has eased to 3.6%, the lowest since 2021.

On balance, the labour market isn’t collapsing, but the slowdown is enough for the Fed to ease financial conditions, especially with inflation contained outside tariffs and wage growth subdued. Fed independence concerns also eased last week when the Supreme Court rejected President Trump’s bid to remove Governor Lisa Cook, keeping her in place until at least January.

Takeaway: The Fed is prioritising growth. As long as the labour market stays on the soft side, rate cuts look likely—even with inflation elevated. We think that means investors should stick to the rate cut playbook and avoid holding excess cash as short-term yields fall.

3. Is the AI rally feeding on itself?

To some extent, yes. AI leadership is creating some self-reinforcing momentum: Tech+ shares now make up about 50% of the S&P 500, with Nvidia at 8%, and account for roughly 60% of the index’s year-to-date return. Every new dollar, pound, or euro into cap-weighted funds favours these same winners.

But it’s not just hype—there’s real cash flow and heavy capital spending. Without software and IT capex, real US growth for the first half of 2025 would be about half as strong. The Magnificent 7 posted 28% year-over-year earnings growth in Q2, with consensus at 21% for the year—three times the rest of the S&P 500—and 17% for 2026. Capex is set to jump 80% to ~$450 billion as AI buildouts accelerate.

Bubble fears? It’s reassuring that major hyperscalers have more profits than debt, and Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet hold surplus cash. With the electricity grid stretched, access to power also acts as a physical check on spending—opening opportunities for utilities, grid operators, and power suppliers.

Takeaway: We’re watching AI spending risks, but so far, models keep improving and demanding more compute power, driving further buildout. Strong financials and measured capex show no signs of an AI bubble, valuations remain contained, and there’s still plenty of runway—less than 10% of US companies report actively using AI to produce goods or services.

What it means for you

Investors shouldn’t ignore risks—political dysfunction, fiscal challenges, and uncertainty around AI investment. But underlying strength remains: a steady, if slowing, economy, a Fed ready to ease, strong tech earnings, and new fiscal stimulus are fuelling resilience and growth. We remain positive on risk assets and see opportunity even amid risks—by leaning into long-term trends like AI and using gold, infrastructure, and hedge funds to keep portfolios balanced and prepared for what comes next. Your JPMorgan team is here to help.

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All market and economic data as of October 2025 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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Shutdowns, shocks, & stock market highs: 3 big questions for investors

1. Has political dysfunction become a genuine risk?

2. Why is the Fed cutting rates despite still-high inflation?

3. Is the AI rally feeding on itself?

What it means for you

KEY RISKS

Important Information

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Shutdowns, shocks, & stock market highs: 3 big questions for investors

1. Has political dysfunction become a genuine risk?

2. Why is the Fed cutting rates despite still-high inflation?

3. Is the AI rally feeding on itself?

What it means for you

KEY RISKS

Important Information

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