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The Middle East conflict is becoming an energy problem

 Key takeaways:

  • Two variables matter most: how long the disruption lasts and who is most exposed. So far, the price action points to inflation concerns rather than an imminent growth scare.
  • The Strait of Hormuz is the critical chokepoint. Workarounds are limited and production risk is rising, leaving Europe and Asia most exposed, while the US is cushioned but not immune.
  • In addition to disruption around the conflict itself, policy is a key lever to watch, from IEA reserves and producer flexibility to US domestic politics as mid‑term elections approach.
  • What it means for you: building resilient portfolios looks more important than ever—for instance, through gold, alternatives such as infrastructure and hedge funds, volatility‑aware strategies (for example, structured notes), and selective exposure to companies at the centre of strategic industries.

The conflict in the Middle East has entered its second week. With risks higher, two key variables matter most for investors: how long the disruption lasts and who is most exposed.

Energy prices have surged: Brent is up over 35% since the conflict began and briefly touched $118/barrel, while European natural gas has jumped about 80%. Global stocks have slid, with sharper declines in energy‑importing economies, while US markets have held up relatively better. Bonds and gold have offered little relief.

Taken together—surging energy prices, an uneven stock sell‑off, and muted safe havens—suggest markets are more worried about inflation than an imminent growth scare.

Here’s how we’re assessing the evolving conflict, the potential ripple effects, and how we’re positioning through the volatility.

The energy chokepoint is the point

The disruption is already physical. The Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries roughly 20% to 30% of globally traded oil and natural gas, is effectively shut. Production hasn’t yet been materially curtailed, but the blockages are acting like a shortage: deliveries are uncertain, tankers are idle, and insurance costs are elevated. Oil and gas are backing up at Gulf ports and export terminals, filling tanks and pipelines faster than they can be processed or loaded, which is pushing operators to curb output to stay within capacity.

The risk to production is rising. Over the weekend, both sides struck energy infrastructure, a notable escalation from earlier stages that avoided such assets.

Efforts to ease the bottleneck are no panacea. US assurances to assist safe passage through the Strait are hard to execute while drones, armed speedboats, and submerged mines remain threats, and insurance guarantees are uncertain. Bypass routes also fall short. Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah line have spare capacity but cannot fully absorb lost Strait volumes, and they may also come into the crosshairs if energy assets continue to be targeted.

Finding alternatives takes time. Many refineries are configured for specific crude grades, liquified natural gas (LNG) requires compatible ships and terminals, and detours add time and cost. Not to mention, Red Sea risks from regional proxies further limit rerouting.

Why Europe and Asia feel it more, but the US isn’t immune

Most crude and natural gas that move through the Strait of Hormuz are bound for Asia and Europe. Heavier import reliance means higher energy costs can hit terms of trade, currencies, and headline inflation faster.

With that in mind, European equities have given back all of their year‑to‑date gains, and emerging markets have sold off sharply. The pattern tracks dependence on flows through the Strait: countries most reliant on these routes are under greater pressure. Outside Greece, the highest exposures cluster in Southeast Asia, followed by Japan and a handful of European countries.

That also helps explain why US equities have held up better. The US sources more crude from Canada and Mexico and is a net exporter of natural gas. That softens the initial blow but doesn’t erase it. Oil is globally priced, so sustained crude increases can lift US energy costs and, with a lag, pressure household budgets even with domestic supply as a cushion.

Beneath the surface, US stocks are showing more churn. Leadership is rotating. Energy stocks have rallied, parts of technology are rebounding on secular growth and strong balance sheets, while cost‑sensitive defensives such as staples are under pressure as higher input costs could outpace shelf prices.

Duration is the hinge factor

It comes down to how long this lasts. If disruption eases quickly through de‑escalation, effective Strait escorts, or credible insurance, the energy risk premium should fade and the inflation scare will likely be brief. If energy transit stays impaired by delays and cautious routing, inflation pressure—and central bank policymaking—may prove more challenging.

The biggest tail risk is a wider conflict that more meaningfully hits physical energy supply. That could elongate the inflation shock and turn it into a global growth shock. History offers a guide: when oil prices double, stocks often see substantial sell‑offs, though these episodes can be short‑lived if supply returns—or if markets gain confidence the disruption can be managed.

Policy is a lever to watch. Additional supply could come into play through producer flexibility and strategic reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is weighing a coordinated G7 release. Meanwhile, some economies are already recalibrating: China has asked refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports to protect domestic supply; Japan’s refiners have urged a strategic stock release; Thailand has activated an emergency plan and halted some petroleum exports; and the US has eased some Russian sanctions to redirect barrels.

Domestic politics may also shape the calculus. With US midterms ahead, persistently high energy costs could become a ballot issue amid ongoing affordability concerns among Americans.

So what is the market signalling?

The central worry is inflation. Rate‑cut expectations have paused as investors gauge how quickly higher energy costs pass through to consumer prices. Some traditional havens have not offered a buffer: 10‑year US Treasury yields are up more than 20 basis points over the last week, and gold is lower.

One silver lining in an uncertain backdrop: markets aren’t pricing a break in disinflation. Futures point to a short‑lived energy squeeze rather than a lasting shortage, with the cost of crude for delivery next month well above longer‑dated contracts (roughly $105 for next‑month Brent versus about $77 for January 2027 delivery). Natural gas shows a similar pattern, but alongside a larger spike in Europe than in the United States. Similarly, market‑based inflation expectations (breakevens) have moved far less than energy prices.

Net‑net, markets (so far) appear to see a detour on the disinflation path rather than a derailment of the economy’s trajectory.

What it means for you

The volatility is uncomfortable, and the odds of de‑escalation versus escalation aren’t yet clear. However, history argues for staying invested through episodes like these: across crises, wars, pandemics, and recessions, staying the course has often recouped losses and captured future growth.

In the meantime, intentional diversification likely matters even more. We are focused on enhancing resilience: for instance, via gold, alternatives like infrastructure and hedge funds, volatility‑aware strategies such as structured notes, and select exposure to companies in the centre of strategic industries.

Your JPMorgan team is here to offer perspective and guidance.

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Energy prices, from oil to natural gas, have surged, while the Strait of Hormuz is shut. At what point does geopolitical conflict become an economic issue?
Published Mar 9, 2026

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