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Investment Strategy

Corporate America: What to expect this earnings season

  Key takeaways:

  • Markets again had every reason to wobble last week. Yet, stocks powered through and reached new highs once again.
  • Q2 earnings season is in full swing, and the early signs are promising: strong bank results point to a steady U.S. consumer, while AI investment continues to be a dominant theme.
  • Corporates have consistently beaten earnings estimates in recent years, and we expect this quarter to be no different. Consensus expected S&P 500 profits to grow just 5% year-over-year in the second quarter—but we wouldn’t be surprised if that actually hit double-digit growth.
  • Focus on fundamentals. markets often don’t need an “all clear” to move forward. They need solid fundamentals and a touch more clarity.

Markets again had every reason to wobble last week. Yet, stocks powered through and reached new highs once again.

The familiar script of escalating tariff threats and Fed independence questions once again came to the fore.

  • On tariffs, President Trump is said to be readying plans for industry-specific tariffs to kick in alongside his country-specific duties in two weeks. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors appear to be among the main focus items. There has meanwhile been less to report on the country-specific tariff front. Aside from last week’s announcement of a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, attention seems to be shifting towards whether or not the European Union can reach an agreement before the August 1st “hard deadline” set by the U.S. administration. The President is reportedly pushing for a minimum tariff rate of 15%-20% on any deal with the bloc.
  • On the Fed, the question around President Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Powell before his term ends in May 2026 is less about “will he, won’t he?” and more about “can he, can’t he?”. While it appears that Powell’s job is safe for now, the uncertainty around the topic has been raising concerns about the future of monetary policy—especially as last week’s inflation report showed some upward pressure from tariffs. That sent 30-year U.S. Treasury yields above 5%.

How has the market been able to stay resilient despite these risks? The focus is shifting—from what might go wrong to what companies are actually saying and delivering. In one word: fundamentals.

Q2 earnings season is in full swing, and the early signs are promising: strong bank results point to a steady U.S. consumer, while AI investment continues to be a dominant theme.

Heading into the quarter, consensus expected S&P 500 profits to grow just 5% year-over-year—the slowest in two years. Much of that can be attributed to downgrades in March and April as markets anticipated the impact of tariffs on growth and margins.

But the flip side of a low bar is that it’s easier to beat. Over the past year, S&P 500 companies have consistently exceeded estimated earnings by an average of 6.3%, with 77% of companies reporting better-than-expected profits. This trend has led to an average increase of 4.6 percentage points in the earnings growth rate. If applied to the estimated growth rate at the end of Q2, the actual earnings growth rate could reach 9.5%—and we wouldn’t be surprised if that actually hit double-digit growth.

Earnings have surpassed expectations in recent years

S&P 500 quarterly year/year earnings growth relative to consensus expectations, %

Source: FactSet. Data as of July 14, 2025. Expectations represent end of quarter estimates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

That’s important. Short term, better-than-feared results tend to lift markets. Long term, earnings growth and dividends are the powerhouse behind stock returns. Since 1991, they've together fuelled about 95% of total U.S. stock gains. Valuation shifts? Less than 5%.

This quarter could boost both fronts: low expectations may fuel short-term upside, while improving fundamentals extend the long-term trend.

What companies say about the future—guidance and tone—could also weigh as much as the numbers. We expect the tone to be consistent with prior quarters, highlighting “uncertainties” and “tariffs”, but we will be listening for guidance on capital expenditure plans, particularly from the mega cap tech names who mostly report over the next couple of weeks.

As we gear up for the busiest weeks of earnings season, we remind ourselves that markets often don’t need an “all clear” to move forward. They need solid fundamentals and a touch more clarity. Corporates are stepping up. Risks are real, but so is resilience.

KEY RISKS

All market and economic data as of July 2025 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.

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  • The Standard and Poor's 500 Index, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index that tracks the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.

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The bar is low heading into Q2 earnings season. History tells us that shouldn’t be cause for concern.

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