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Investment Strategy

Why we think preferred securities look strong after the 2023 bank failures

We have been constructive on preferred equities over the past few years as a way for investors to invest in higher-yielding assets. Broadly, preferred securities have a mix of bond and equity-like features, offering investors an opportunity to invest in high-quality companies with the potential for returns and price appreciation.

Why might they be attractive now? Preferreds combine higher returns by higher-quality companies than U.S. high yield companies. Preferreds currently yield 6.95%, 15 basis points (bps) higher than BB high yield, while the credit quality of the issuing company is significantly higher with an average of A2 issuer ratings vs BB rated high yield1. Preferreds also may receive favorable tax treatment that further enhances their value for U.S. taxpayers.

Given the increase in interest rates in 2022–23, banks2 are now issuing new preferred securities with coupon rates that provide investors with average tax-equivalent current yields over 7%.3 This is on par with historic returns in the equity market. 4 In addition, the banking failures in early 2023 caused volatility in the space, and some contagion spread to non-bank preferreds. This created value in issuers that have little or no exposure to the troubles of the failed banks.

Preferreds of all sorts have staged a substantial recovery in the last year. Our view: Given their characteristics and prices today, we think this market is still compelling. Here’s what makes them worth looking into right now.

Underappreciated market

The U.S investment grade bond market is about $8.4 trillion, the leveraged loan market is $1.4 trillion, and the high yield bond market is $1.3 trillion. The market for preferreds is smaller than any of those, at less than $1 trillion.5 We feel the space is somewhat overlooked, given what it can do for an investor’s portfolio.

Appealing yields

Even beyond global banks, preferred equity yields remain elevated and attractive on a historical basis. Preferred yields as measured by the benchmark PVAR Index are currently at 6.8%—down from 10% during the 2023 bank failures, but well above their long-term average of 5%.

Attractive dividends

Preferred equities typically pay regular dividends. Most often, they pay a fixed quarterly or semiannual dividend for a set period, such as five years.6 When that period ends, the issuer can call the shares and issue new ones or continue paying dividends at a floating rate that has reset to a benchmark rate, such as the Secured Overnight Financial Rate (SOFR) or five-year U.S. Treasuries. Most often, issuers call their preferreds.7

Favorable tax treatment for some investors

In the United States, dividends on preferred securities are taxed like qualified dividend income,8 at a federal rate of 15% or 20%. This means investors whose incomes put them in tax brackets with rates of up to 37% will most likely pay lower taxes on the income they get from preferreds than on income from other investments, including high yield bonds.

While high yield bond returns tend to look larger on paper, the potential tax advantages of preferred securities are significant, and can provide them superior yields on a tax-equivalent basis.9

Typically high-quality company issuers

High yield bonds offer higher coupons/yields than investment grade bonds or Treasuries because they are issued by riskier companies, with greater probability of default. In contrast, the companies that issue preferreds tend to have much less default risk. Preferreds are generally issued by higher-quality companies; issuers typically have investment grade credit ratings. U.S. banks, especially the systemically important ones, are highly regulated and have conservative balance sheets.

Since defaults can erode an investor’s returns in the high yield space, we think this combination of the potential for higher returns and higher quality makes preferreds attractive in comparison to high yield bonds.

A clear recovery in the space 

The 2023 failures of First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank damaged financial stocks generally. Preferred equities suffered as well.

However, there has been a clear recovery in the space since then, led by global banks of systemic importance. Many investors see these banks as lower-risk investments because of the high quality of their businesses and the large amounts of capital that regulators require them to hold.

We like these institutions as investments because they typically have a greater provision for losses, diversified revenue sources and limited exposure to the risks associated with commercial real estate offices. They gained 8% in 2023 and another 3.78% year-to-date, but we don’t think the run is nearly over.

Performance of different classes of preferred securities

Total return across preferred sectors (%)

This chart shows the year-to-date 2024 total return and the 2023 total return for GSIBS, Regionals, Cards, Diversified Services and Insurance and Utilities.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Date as of May 28, 2024. Total returns based on compilation of preferreds securities, weighted by market value of sector. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance it not indicative of future results.

Risks: Selection is crucial

Office commercial real estate is a major overhang on parts of the banking sector today. Nationwide, office vacancy rates in central business districts are high, and rent growth is slowing. This is an acute problem for some regional banks.

It is our view that regional bank lending may be constrained over the next few years as these banks try to repair their balance sheets. This dynamic would likely translate into higher bond yields, lower returns and weaker stock performance.

While this issue makes us cautious on regional banks overall, it’s important to understand that they will not all feel these effects equally. Some of these institutions have less commercial real estate exposure than others, potentially making their preferred securities a safer and more attractive investment.

This chart illustrates the exposure of U.S. banks to commercial real estate, including offices and retail, as a proportion of the overall highest-quality capital (Tier 1 common equity) they are required to hold. 

Real estate exposure for U.S. banks

Commercial real estate as % of bank-regulated capital

A column chart is shown, with a stacked column showing the exposure to Office, construction loans and multifamily for a series of U.S. banks (in the order of largest asset size to smallest).
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of 1Q’24. Office and construction is an estimate by taking total CRE, excluding owner occupied, multifamily and farm. Banks with 0% CRE exposure are omitted from the chart.
The effects of that exposure on performance are very clear, as this chart shows: Banks with less exposure to commercial real estate are outperforming those with greater exposure.

Commercial real estate links hurt banks

Performance of bank stocks, weighted by real estate exposure

A line graph is shown over the course of March 2023 to May of 2024, illustrating the market cap weighted stock performance of banks in three categories with the performance as follows:
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of May 21, 2024. S&P Capital IQ, CRE exposure excludes multifamily, farm and owner occupied. CET1 stands for Common Equity Tier 1. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance it not indicative of future results.

The details matter. This is an area where selectivity and deep understanding of businesses’ strengths and liabilities could prove critical for your returns. Good investment managers can be key, as they can evaluate the risks and returns of preferred securities from various issuers to determine which ones look like the worthiest investments.

We can help

To learn more about preferred equities and what they might contribute to your portfolio, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

1Bloomberg Finance L.P., preferreds as measured by the ICE Variable Rate Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index (PVAR Index). High Yield as measured by the J.P. Morgan High Yield Bond Index: BB-rated bonds. A2 is the average of the PVAR Index issuer ratings assigned by Moody’s. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.​

2Most preferred securities are issued by banks, but they are also issued by insurance companies, utilities and some energy companies.

3Bloomberg Finance L.P., Data as of May 31, 2024. Tax Equivalent Yield: Calculated as Current Yield x (1-23.8%)/(1-40.8%). This calculation uses the maximum tax rate on QDI-eligible securities and grosses that figure by the maximum federal tax rate.

4Bloomberg Finance L.P., average S&P 500 returns since 2000 are 7%. Data as of December 29, 2023.

5BofA Global Research, ICE Data Indices LLC, J.P. Morgan. Data as of April 30, 2024

65Y CMT (Constant Maturity Treasury) preferreds were 77% of 2023 issuance. SOFR and Fixed-for-life preferreds made up the remaining 23%. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

7Between 2010 and 2024, ~80% of U.S. Bank and Insurance Preferreds were called. Source: Credit Sights.

8The maximum federal tax rate on qualified dividends is 20%.

9You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

Preferred securities can provide long-term investors with attractive compensation for the associated risks. Here’s our current thinking about the asset class.

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Important Information

The PVAR Index is designed to track the performance of floating and variable rate investment grade and below investment grade U.S. dollar preferred stock, as well as certain types of hybrid securities that determined by the Index Provider, comparable to preferred stocks, that are issued by corporations in the U.S. market.

The J.P. Morgan High Yield Bond Index is a corporate bond index comprised of below investment grade bonds based on Moody's, S&P, and Fitch rating agencies. The minimum size of issue is $200MM, currency is in USD only, and issuers are from developed markets only and include both senior and subordinated bonds.

Key Risks
Preferred investments share characteristics of both stocks and bonds. Preferred securities are typically long dated securities with call protection that fall in between debt and equity in the capital structure. Preferred securities carry various risks and considerations which include: concentration risk; interest rate risk; lower credit ratings than individual bonds; a lower claim to assets than a firm's individual bonds; higher yields due to these risk characteristics; and “callable” implications meaning the issuing company may redeem the stock at a certain price after a certain date.​

Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.​

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