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Investment Strategy

Why it might be a new day for growth equity

We have long believed that growth equity offers exposure to some of the largest, fastest, growing private companies in the world, particularly in sectors such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), social media, financial services and data intelligence. We see this as an important role to play in our client’s portfolios. And experience suggests that investing in highly-innovative companies via private markets can offer the potential for long-term above-trend returns while providing exposure not accessible in public markets.

We define “growth equity” as investments in newly founded private companies, generally less than 10 years old, that are leaders in highly innovative sectors like technology, healthcare and climate. Many are based in the U.S. or high-growth regions such as India, Southeast Asia and Latin America. They typically are experiencing revenue growth rates that may exceed their public market counterparts1.

We help our clients access these opportunities by partnering with experienced growth equity managers who take an approach that is diversified across sectors and geography to help in seeking to mitigate the risks associated with investing in growth equity. When possible, we favor managers who can provide value-add operating guidance and resources to entrepreneurs.

In this article, we’ll review the reasons we believe that investing in this space can be beneficial, and our approach to getting it right. We’ll also explain why we think the space offers some potentially intriguing opportunities today.

The why of growth equity

In keeping with our view that private-market assets have the potential to outperform public equities and bonds over the long term, clients may consider allocating a portion of their portfolios to these assets to potentially strengthen their return profiles.

Alongside other classes like core private equity and real assets, we see growth equity as an important element of this approach. Typically, we suggest that clients consider allocating between 10% and 30% of their private investment funds specifically to growth equity—although clients with longer time horizons sometimes opt for larger allocations. 

The reason for this is simple: Growth equity companies tend to be earlier in their life cycles than publicly-traded companies, and they may have greater growth potential—but come with correspondingly greater risk.

It’s important in this context to distinguish between growth equity and other types of investments. Compared to venture capital, growth equity investments are typically made in more mature businesses. These companies already have proven business models and some recurring revenues. In many cases, they are profitable. That has been an increasing focus over the past three years: Our data shows that profitable companies are commanding greater multiples from investors.

However, growth equity strategies generally focus on younger and less mature companies than do private equity strategies. This allows growth equity investors to access companies that can achieve greater growth and generate greater alpha, again with correspondingly greater risk.

Today, we see outstanding levels of innovation in artificial intelligence (AI), life sciences, hardware and energy transition-related technologies. We are bullish on areas including:

  • The digital transition in areas like AI and machine learning, digital payments, and cybersecurity
  • Healthcare Innovation in areas like life sciences therapeutics, tools & services and value-based case
  • Energy transition including next-gen renewables, sustainable materials & products, and decarbonization
  • Evolving consumer preferences in e-commerce and marketplaces and direct-to-consumer brands

And the why now

Today, investors who are willing to add exposure may be able to invest in growth-stage companies at far lower valuations than those that were available a few years ago—even though many of those companies have continued to build their customer bases, grow revenues and prove the strength of their businesses in the interim.

Growth equity companies have endured substantial declines in market value since their valuations peaked in 2021-22. While high-growth public equities began a similar downturn at around the same time, their valuations have generally recovered – especially if they are profitable. That hasn’t been the case for private companies.

Valuations for growth-stage investments have fallen by more than half from their peak, as this chart shows:

Plunging valuations

Median valuations for venture capital and growth equity companies by year

Bar graph showing medium venture-growth pre-money valuations
Source: Pitchbook as of Q1 2024 *Through 3/31/2024

Briefly, there are several interrelated reasons for the downturn. One is that their growth rates did not live up to overly-optimistic expectations: During the pandemic, there was a dramatic increase in adoption of new technologies related to themes like remote work or delivery or at-home exercise. The valuations that growth equity companies attracted at that time reflected the belief that their growth rates would remain at new, very high levels. But in most cases, those rates returned to their pre-pandemic levels, and valuations have declines to pre-pandemic levels.

We see this valuation decline as a healthy correction that can help set the stage for potential outperformance over the longer run. While some investors have been disappointed by growth rates for these companies, that doesn’t explain the depth and extent of this downturn. 

At the same time, funding for growth-stage companies dried up over the last two years. This chart shows how dramatic the change has been in both fund and dollar terms. 

Funding remains hard to find

Venture and early-stage firms are poised for growth, but struggling to attract funding

Bar graph showing Q1 fundraising is in the lowest in past decade.
Source: Pitchbook--NVCA Venture Monitor--Geography. Data as of March 31,2024

For every dollar in capital that companies are seeking, venture capital and growth equity firms are currently supplying less than 50 cents. 

This intense competition for funding is forcing more companies to raise needed capital at lower valuations than they were able to command just a few years ago. As of Q1 2024, 27% of companies raising funds were doing so at flat or lower market valuations than they had received in their previous round. That is the highest level of flat or “down rounds” in 10 years.

This, too, means that some companies are open to investment at valuations that may not reflect their present levels of growth, or their underlying potential. However, compared to the steep decline in valuations seen since the peak, we believe that conditions have changed significantly of late.

There were modest signs of improvement in growth equity valuations the first quarter of 2024, the most recent period for which data is available. Market values in most growth equity sectors were flat compared to the year before, or made modest gains rather than declining further.

There is a noteworthy exception here: AI companies, which have come to prominence after the downturn began. Their valuations surged 61% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year. Indeed, multiples for companies in the AI space are at all-time highs. We are positive on the long-term potential of AI, but we think caution will be necessary going forward in the growth equity space.

Risks and perspective

Along with the potential for outperformance vs. publicly-traded companies, high-growth private companies present greater risks for investors as well. As noted, they tend to be earlier in their life cycles than S&P 500 companies. Private market investments are also less liquid, with invested funds inaccessible for longer periods.

Both of these are important factors in determining when and how to invest appropriately in growth equities. Careful attention is also needed to make sure these positions stay appropriately sized; over time, the growth of these companies can generate unintended overweights that expose clients to greater risks.

But after several years of subpar returns for growth equity, we think the current market conditions may present a more favorable balance of risks and rewards in growth equity investments.

We can help

If you want to know more about growth equity investments and how they may fit into your larger financial plan, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

1Asia- Pacific Private Equity Report 2024, Bain & Company March 24, 2024.

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While private market growth equity valuations have seen a steep decline since the 2021 peak, we see signs that new opportunities are emerging.
Published Sep 17, 2024

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