Insights

Soft landing or hard landing?

Will China’s “Two Sessions” be a turning point?

In this note we assess how China’s recovery is progressing, while reiterating our views on the economy and markets.

The Future of Food is Coming Fast

How might you invest in innovations that are designed to feed the world?

Winter Heating

US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot.

5 fixed income strategies for a new market era

You can find higher yields and better protection against recession and equity declines in a variety of fixed income strategies…

How do we position U.S. equities?

In today’s Asia Strategy Weekly we take a closer look at the latest earnings results and discuss our favored ways to position…

How strong is China’s reopening recovery?

This week’s strategy question is focused on the consumption recovery in China.

Inflation cools but is growth next?

The full impact of Federal Reserve tightening has yet to be felt, and a pause isn’t likely to negate the slowdown ahead.

Revisiting the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio strategy

It’s a great time to put capital to work. By repositioning your assets, you can take advantage of return of the classic 60/40…

Eye on the Market Outlook 2023: The End of the Affair

The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins.

3 key takeaways for investors post COP27

More than 35,000 delegates came together in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, to take collective action against climate change – here are…

Little Red Wagon

A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

A Thanksgiving list of things I am thankful for. My list this year: CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273.

Healthcare innovation: It’s a new universe of potentially…

See what’s driving today’s key trends and how to identify opportunities while navigating the risks.

It’s been a tough year for tech but the outlook should…

While tech stocks outperformed during the Covid pandemic, they have fallen behind this year. Yet despite the slowing economy,…

Reruns

Three reruns for investors: equity declines, Thucydides Trap update, and the Pitcairn Problem.

Where can you invest in today’s energy landscape?

The world is caught between old school fossil fuels and a clean energy future. Although there is some uncertainty over the spee…

Arrested Development

Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much…

A paradigm shift: Unlocking ESG data for individual…

There's a transformation underway in environmental, social and governance (ESG) data. 

Today’s U.S. real estate dilemma: Buy, build, sell now—or…

Where the property is located may be critical in the next one to two years. We find significant disparities in short-term,…

U.S. Midterm elections are coming. What do they mean for…

A divided government—the likely outcome—suggests little new spending and limited potential impacts on critical sectors.

Market Thoughts: Today’s key investor question is, “What’…

A hard landing isn’t reflected in market pricing, the rally is fragile and global inflation is still too high. We expect the Fe…

Timber investment: The new branch of real assets

Returns on timber investments have been good during inflation, and could help hedge other holdings.

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe…

Climate change investing: How to find your opportunities

Here’s how we look at the new global economy that is being created—and why we think private markets are particularly interestin…

Is this U.S.-China audit agreement a game changer?

Today’s Asia Strategy Weekly explains what the agreement means for the market, what to watch from here and our outlook for the…

Is China facing a hard landing?

In this edition we provide a deep dive on one of the biggest challenges facing the Chinese economy – the housing market.

AgTech in Latin America: Small-scale solutions in a…

Latin America is one of the few places in the world where significant portions of farmland remain untapped.

The second gear of the Manchin-Schumer bill

While the Manchin-Schumer bill (if passed) would almost certainly accelerate the US energy transition, nothing like a CBO…

Is mortgage non-payment China’s Lehman moment?

This week, U.S. equities rallied on solid earnings, and market focused on ECB rates decision. We think equity volatility may…

It’s the end of easy money. Five charts count the ways

Higher rates and tighter financial conditions create challenges for economies and asset markets. Here’s what you need to know.

Long Hot Summer Reading List

Most summer reading lists are carefully curated, inspirational elegies to the human spirit. This is not that. See today’s note…

Independence Days

Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe…

Is private credit the right tool for these uncertain times?

This varied asset class potentially offers yield, enhanced returns and inflation protection.

Dearly beloved

Dearly Beloved: some comments on Jamie’s hurricane reference last week regarding the US economy, and a eulogy for unprofitable…

Bear Market Barometers

The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. You can be patient when adding risk to portfolios; earnings…

12th Annual Energy Paper

We examine the energy landscape in 2022, including the energy crisis in Europe, deep decarbonization plans through…

The Tide Goes Out: Growth Trade Aftermath

Growth Trade Aftermath: asset allocation, equity mutual funds and hedge funds after the selloff

Alternatives: Do you want to invest? Here's how to start.

Alternative investments can help with portfolio diversification as well as provide inflation protection. Read more about how to…

Surveying the Damage

Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investor…

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine; full steam ahead for the Fed; the paths not taken.

Russia/Ukraine update: energy implications

The brief note covers the price Europe is now paying for allowing its energy reliance on Russia to reach extreme levels, and th…

Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine

Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers.

The Maltese Falcoin

On cryptocurrencies and the blockchain

Manchin and the reconciliation bill

You have all seen the news articles by now. The short version: Pelosi encouraged House Democrats to pass a bill that Manchin…

2021 Holiday Eye on the Market: The Middle Ages

On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron

Thanksgiving Eye on the Market: “The Thing”

Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.

Help Wanted

Topics: Labor shortages, the issue of Taiwan and an update on the most over-indebted US states

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the…

Your Fall 2021 syllabus

Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology…

Spaccine hesitancy

Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity…

Red Med Redemption

Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US…

Thy Brother's Keeper

Topics: Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and a unified theory of…

Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional…

An investor's look at the China recovery

Topics: An investor’s look at China’s recovery, the Sinopharm vaccine and the importance of scientific methods

Inflation. Duh!

This Eye on the Market addresses questions we’re receiving on markets, inflation, rates and capital gains taxes, and concludes…

Eleventh Annual Energy Paper 2021

We examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in permanent reductions in CO₂ emissions.

Absolute Value

Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it…

The Smalligarchy

How the narrowest political margins in decades could deliver one of the biggest taxation and spending increases in the post-war…

Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t…it’s amazing to see…

The Agony & The Ecstasy

We look at 40 years of stock performance and explore the risks and rewards of a concentrated stock position.

A delicate balancing act: the impact of US-China conflict…

While the United States might attempt to increase its influence in Latin America, China will continue to be a close trading and…

Very short stories

Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable…

Hydraulic Spacking

In this month’s note, we look at the SPAC capital raising boom and Biden’s early stage energy policies.

Fear of Flying

Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

Eye on the Market Outlook 2021

Our views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’…

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B…

The Armageddonists, Revisited

The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with…

Quiet Flows the Don

For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds.

Special EOTM Election update: Pennsylvania, absentee…

During the President’s speech on Thursday, he made it clear that the next step in the process will be a wave of GOP litigation…

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

As the election outcome increasingly looks like a split decision (President Biden with a GOP Senate), we’re preparing for…

The United States vs Google, and Europe vs COVID

We’ve all been focused on the election recently, but there are other topics worth covering since they will affect markets…

Buckle Up!

Pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions; Equity market impacts.

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

The Needle and the Damage Done

The long-term fiscal and monetary cost of the US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tec…

Tenth Annual Energy Paper

We examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in permanent reductions in CO₂ emissions.

The Bounce

On the recovery in the economy and markets; latest updates on second waves, vaccine timetables and the Sweden experiment.

The day after: Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer…

In this week’s note, we introduce real-time debit and credit card spending data to track the rebirth of the US consumer.

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

This week, we look at the US as it prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world.

State’s Rights

The latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

Are we there yet?

Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet? Also, a review of the latest regional antibody test results and…

COVID and culture

Collectivism vs Individualism and its impact on COVID infection rates; when US states might reopen; a history of US equity bottoms

The equity rally and the prospects for herd immunity

The recent equity rally and antibody tests that could signal the onset of higher levels of immunity.

Man vs. nature, part II

Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.

Man vs nature: What the government can and cannot fix

There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can’t.

The virus, John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to…

How quickly countries rebound from crisis and economic hardship.

The Pandemic Gap

The critical distinction between the “infected” and the “sick”, mortality rates, and important context around the Spanish Flu.

Berning Man

An update on the Democratic Primary, and more on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

COVID-19 Update

Severity, consequences and implications for investors.

Millions and Trillions

US megacap stocks and high market concentration, Democratic Healthcare plan costs, and a deep dive on the student loan crisis.

Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the China-US deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

Eye on the Market Outlook 2020

Our market and investment views on the year ahead as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.

Irrevocable trusts: What beneficiaries need to know to…

First and foremost, understand how taxes will impact the distributions you receive—before they’re paid.

All of your wealth in one stock— are you at risk?

The answer, especially when markets are volatile, is: “Yes.” But there are some steps you might consider taking right away.

How to host meaningful family meetings throughout the year

Despite the challenges of the continued global pandemic, you can plan future family gatherings to sustain healthy connections.

Managing Passions: Planning the Future of an Art Collection

What are the different alternatives to transfer the ownership of art assets?

Passing the Torch: Life Insurance in your Estate Plan

How can families leverage life insurance to transfer wealth?

Families and philanthropy: Three ways to get everyone…

But first, think through the outcome you want!

Near-and-dear assets deserve a special place in your trus…

Private businesses, real estate and/or mineral asset holdings for example, may have a special place in your heart as well as…

Wealth Planning

From essential updates on the tax landscape and how you can navigate it most efficiently, to tips on making the most out of the…

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