The Global Investment Strategy View

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A logo reads J.P.Morgan Private Bank. Text: Investment and insurance products are: Not FDIC insured. Not insured by any federal government agency. Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates. Subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Alexander Wolf has short graying hair and wears a dark suit with a white shirt and a yellow patterned tie, and Kriti Gupta has long dark hair and wears a rust-colored blazer over a black top with dark pants and hoop earrings. They sit on a low tan bench in front of wood planters holding tall leafy plants and red and green foliage, in an open office with desks, monitors, and office chairs behind them. A caption reads Alexander Wolf, Global Head of Macro and Fixed Income Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. A caption reads Kriti Gupta, Global Investment Strategist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

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KRITI GUPTA: This month in our August View, we made a lot of really interesting calls, and one of the big ones is what the Federal Reserve is going to do next in September. Alex, I this one's really interesting because we've had a lot of debate on the desk about why we go from a hold in the rate cycle to a potential hike. How much of that decision was due to the conflict in the Middle East and the oil price volatility?

ALEXANDER WOLF: The interesting thing about it is the fact that not that much has changed in the macro backdrop. Of course, we've gone from an MOU, or an agreement for de-escalation, to re-escalation, and now de-escalation. And throughout that, economic data hasn't really changed that much.

What has caused us to change that view from being a hold to now expecting a hike is really concerns around inflation expectations, views within the FOMC, within the Fed around whether or not they're going to continue to be patient with inflation above their target, and also some concerns around Fed credibility of achieving that inflation target.

So wanting to maintain markets' view of their credibility around that target, but also just some perceived loss of patience with inflation just being too high for too long. We now think that they will tilt towards a hike, although admittedly, it's a close call, and the next couple of months of data will be extremely important in determining whether it is a hike or it is a hold.

KRITI GUPTA: And I think we should just make it clear to our investors and to our clients, and especially to our partners within the firm as well, that just the idea of we are four years out from the last major hiking cycle, and we're doing it at a time when the economy is actually doing fairly well. The data is still resilient across the board. Whether it's inflation data, whether it's jobs data, even whether it's manufacturing productivity, everything's headed in the right direction.

ALEXANDER WOLF: Yeah, we've seen that, especially over the last couple of months. When oil prices moved higher-- and higher oil prices does function somewhat as a tax-- we've seen resilient job creation. In fact, we've seen somewhat of a rebound in the job market, which was somewhat unexpected. So we have this resilient economic backdrop. Inflation above target.

Now, we don't think the economy is overheating in the macro sense. We don't think that we're on the verge of another hiking cycle. It's more a fine-tuning of rates, and that's why we're really just looking at more or less a one and done, maybe a second one, but not the start of a new rate hiking cycle. Just a fine-tuning.

KRITI GUPTA: And I think that's such a key part of our bank's call. It's one of those sectors that we're most positive on, simply because, on the one hand, you have this great economy that is actually growing. You have this intra increase or potential increase in interest rates as well. On top of that capital markets activity, on top of that loan growth, you put it all together and that's why banks are one of our most high conviction calls.

ALEXANDER WOLF: Banks are cyclical. And as we see the cycle resilient and we see growth continuing at pace, and we don't see any significant macro risks on the horizon, then banks or, broadly, financials make sense, especially too when we look at markets and we look at many investors that we work with, they already have an allocation to tech. And banks are one of the ways that they can look to find an opportunity that isn't entirely tech-related.

KRITI GUPTA: And I think that's really fascinating because the tech piece is so important for the banks' call as well, as they're one of the biggest AI adopters, just from a sector perspective. But then the tech call itself-- you have an equity side that's seeing a lot of volatility. We've seen that in the semi space recently. But you also have a credit component to that as well.

ALEXANDER WOLF: Yeah, there's a lot of things changing at the moment-- not just the conflict, but the Fed. And we're seeing massive issuance, whether it's the Treasury or it's hyperscalers, and that's pushing spreads up a little bit. It's transitioning how they finance data centers purely from cash flow to debt. And the market has been a little bit unsure of how they want to treat that.

And so, as we see large CapEx announcements somewhat punished by equity investors, there's a little bit more skepticism over some of the plans. And that's what's caused some of the recent volatility that we've seen in semiconductors. Now, we think that the AI build-out will continue. We do think it's continuing, so we are actually positive on some of the hyperscalers' credits, and we maintain our positive view of semiconductors.

KRITI GUPTA: I think the messaging around that has really changed here, because so much of that volatility, to your point, because of that issuance said, well, to make that kind of investment, to make that worthy, you need to be able to monetize whatever it is you're investing in. I think the market has really changed its tune by saying, especially these last couple of earnings reports, that actually the backlog and the overwhelming demand and this multi-decade investment cycle can actually support these giant numbers and historic numbers of investment that we're seeing. And that's something that we're talking about in our August View and in some of the conversations behind the desk. The August View is out now.

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