Markets & Investing

How golden was China’s golden week?

This week we address the Israel-Hamas War and its implication for the oil market as well as update on China’s economy following…

What to do as rates continue to move higher?

Rates keep moving higher – and higher rates make bonds an even more powerful tool for investors to reach their goals with…

Answering the tough client questions

In this note, the Private Bank Investment Strategy team takes on the most difficult and most asked questions we received from…

What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two year…

Could recent events upset the soft landing consensus?

In this note we examine those risks and consider how they can impact our base case and investment recommendations.

A different take on India

In this week’s note we describe why India has outperformed and make the case for why it can continue to outperform as a…

Can private credit continue to perform?

We think so—and see an unusual opportunity for investors as measures of risk decline, yet compensation, in the form of yield,…

Can the immaculate disinflation continue?

On the back of this disinflationary trend, we continue to expect a soft(ish) landing in the U.S. economy – where first half 202…

Can private credit continue to perform?

In today’s note we examine the risks and opportunities in this space and make the case for capitalizing on this market today.

Understanding China’s property downturn and its implications

We will take a closer look at the housing market – focusing on both the near-term and long-term prospects. We also assess the…

Why is China’s recovery stalling?

While we have had very conservative and below-consensus assumptions for China this year, the speed at which negative news is…

The first rule of philanthropy: Know your “why”

Having a clear idea of the impact you hope to achieve is the best starting point for a process that is rewarding—and often…

How concerning is the U.S. debt level?

United States government debt has come into focus in recent times. In May, the U.S. Congress agreed to suspend the debt ceiling…

Rising hopes for a softer landing

We are turning more optimistic on the U.S. macro outlook – and believe the probability of a soft(er) landing has increased.

Asia Mid-Year Outlook 2023

The Rasputin Effect: Global resilience to higher rates

Explaining global economic and equity market resilience.

Equities are back up. Learn how you can maximize your…

If you’re thinking about rebuilding your equity exposure, now may be an opportune time. But be sure to take the most…

Is this the last hike?

In this week’s note we examine the data that could influence the Fed’s path from here, and assess the investment implications a…

Alternatives in a challenging market

We see a number of contrarian opportunities through private investments across equity, credit and real estate.

Artificial intelligence

A.I. has the potential to redefine how we approach daily tasks by increasing efficiency and improving utility and engagement.

Simple and effective: 3 ways to save on U.S. taxes

Have the right types of accounts. Match asset and account types well. Withdraw funds from different accounts in the right order.

Invest in global infrastructure to hedge and help build a…

Infrastructure has the potential to provide inflation protection, income and resilience in uncertain times.

Where are the opportunities amid the U.S. earnings season?

In this week’s Asia Strategy Weekly, we turn our focus to the U.S. equity market.

Investors shouldn’t be surprised if these 3 things happen…

Prepare yourself for a possible all-time S&P 500 high*, global manufacturing rebound and U.S. election static.

Mr. Toad's Wild Ride: The impact of underperforming 2020…

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs.

Investing in a changed world of shortages and oversupply

To make sense of elevated interest rates, rolling recessions, supply issues and a tech revolution, you may need to apply a new…

Equity outlook

We think the worst of the bear market in U.S. equities is likely over. Recession or no recession, we don’t think the market wil…

De-dollarization and the FX outlook

The idea of de-dollarization has been gaining traction recently, but we do not think the dollar is going away anytime soon.

Are you putting your cash to work?

Yield for liquid investments is higher—and may help soften the bite inflation can take out of your assets.

Recession Versus Soft Landing

Many banks are still calling for a recession but markets have rallied and the U.S. economy has remained strong. Where do we…

China’s macro outlook

While we are optimistic on China’s consumption recovery, our growth outlook for China is below consensus.

3 actions to help optimize your portfolio in today’s…

Increase your liquidity’s potential to generate greater returns. Put the right assets in the right types of accounts. And…

Can Japan continue rallying?

Japan’s impressive equity market rally this year has caught markets by surprise. Positive headlines and the participation of…

Where does China’s recovery go from here?

In today’s note, we take stock of China’s recovery so far and examine the paths it can take from here.

Why passive investing may not be enough—and how to do more

Exchange-traded funds are popular. But a tax-managed separately managed account may serve you better

The energy transition is ramping up. Investors should tak…

The U.S. government is supercharging clean energy spending and some sectors may see increased profitability. Here are a few…

Letters to the Editor

Letters to the Editor. To start, some comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence during the narrowest market…

The opportunity in renewed U.S. industrial policy

In the wake of globalization’s grim consequences, three new laws seek to reindustrialize the heartland.

Where are the investment opportunities in AI?

This week’s note assesses the potential economic impact of AI, and takes an early look at its investment opportunities.

The case for alternative investments

Explore the primary roles alternatives play in a portfolio and why more investors are considering them.

Too Long at the Fair

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while.

What are the possible scenarios for the U.S debt ceiling?

Markets appear to be especially concerned this time, due to the extent of polarization in U.S. politics, and the uncertain U.S.…

Market Thoughts: Holding the reins tight

Recent abrupt market moves, the U.S. economy stuck in a holding pattern, and a bumpy road ahead. Our response: to be even more…

Will China’s recovery drive commodity prices higher?

Today’s Asia strategy weekly delves into this topic and explains how this round of recovery impact the world, with a focus on…

How could the Fed pause, banking stress, and debt ceiling…

It's an eventful time in the U.S. -- the Fed continued its rate hiking cycle, J.P. Morgan took over the troubled First Republic…

What we're targeting now in Alternatives

Explore the areas that we’re most excited about and how they may help you meet your goals.

Where are the Chinese tourists?

With the lifting of restrictions many regional economies expected an immediate surge of travelers that haven’t materialized,…

Oh, The Places We Could Go

A recent article in the South China Morning Post was entitled “End of dollar dominance will also spell demise of US hegemony”. …

ChatGPT: The start of the AI revolution

Reaching 1 million users quicker than any other application, ChatGPT's rapid ascent has raised some fundamental questions about…

Should we chase the U.S. equity rally?

After a start to 2023 that has surprised many given the 8% rise in the S&P 500, first quarter earnings season is a timely pulse…

Frankenstein's Monster

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real…

Where to hide in a volatile market?

In this volatile environment, we favor adding core duration as downside protection, remaining defensive in equities, and we als…

Why 2023 may still be good for private markets

As market volatility pushes down valuations, now may be the time to think about investing.

13th Annual Energy Paper

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

How does the Silicon Valley Bank collapse impact our…

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was taken over by the U.S. regulators on March 10 due to a bank run, making it the second-largest ban…

Silicon Valley Bank failure

One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.

Soft landing or hard landing?

Three steps you can take to maximize tax alpha

Tax loss harvesting strategies offer an efficient way to reduce your tax bill - here are three ways to keep the tax benefits…

Will China’s “Two Sessions” be a turning point?

In this note we assess how China’s recovery is progressing, while reiterating our views on the economy and markets.

Winter Heating

US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot.

5 fixed income strategies for a new market era

You can find higher yields and better protection against recession and equity declines in a variety of fixed income strategies…

How do we position U.S. equities?

In today’s Asia Strategy Weekly we take a closer look at the latest earnings results and discuss our favored ways to position…

Market Thoughts: A glimmer of hope

CIO Richard Madigan assesses the current state of the economy and markets—and shares how we are positioning portfolios now.

How strong is China’s reopening recovery?

This week’s strategy question is focused on the consumption recovery in China.

American Gothic

The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.

Revisiting the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio strategy

It’s a great time to put capital to work. By repositioning your assets, you can take advantage of return of the classic 60/40…

Eye on the Market Outlook 2023: The End of the Affair

The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins.

Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

First, a gift for our clients: a 2022-themed non-fungible token for your digital collection embedded in the Eye on the Market. …

Little Red Wagon

A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

A Thanksgiving list of things I am thankful for. My list this year: CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273.

Reruns

Three reruns for investors: equity declines, Thucydides Trap update, and the Pitcairn Problem.

Arrested Development

Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much…

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe…

The second gear of the Manchin-Schumer bill

While the Manchin-Schumer bill (if passed) would almost certainly accelerate the US energy transition, nothing like a CBO…

Independence Days

Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe…

Dearly beloved

Dearly Beloved: some comments on Jamie’s hurricane reference last week regarding the US economy, and a eulogy for unprofitable…

Why investors are looking carefully at “human capital…

As the pandemic wanes, investors and companies are focusing on this key ESG factor.

Bear Market Barometers

The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. You can be patient when adding risk to portfolios; earnings…

12th Annual Energy Paper

We examine the energy landscape in 2022, including the energy crisis in Europe, deep decarbonization plans through…

The Tide Goes Out: Growth Trade Aftermath

Growth Trade Aftermath: asset allocation, equity mutual funds and hedge funds after the selloff

Alternatives: Do you want to invest? Here's how to start.

Alternative investments can help with portfolio diversification as well as provide inflation protection. Read more about how to…

Surveying the Damage

Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investor…

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine; full steam ahead for the Fed; the paths not taken.

Russia/Ukraine update: energy implications

The brief note covers the price Europe is now paying for allowing its energy reliance on Russia to reach extreme levels, and th…

Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine

Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers.

The Maltese Falcoin

On cryptocurrencies and the blockchain

Manchin and the reconciliation bill

You have all seen the news articles by now. The short version: Pelosi encouraged House Democrats to pass a bill that Manchin…

2021 Holiday Eye on the Market: The Middle Ages

On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron

Thanksgiving Eye on the Market: “The Thing”

Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.

Help Wanted

Topics: Labor shortages, the issue of Taiwan and an update on the most over-indebted US states

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the…