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Investment Strategy

Addressing questions from Outlook amid recent market volatility: gold, equities, China, Japan and geopolitics

It has been an eventful month in markets as we conducted our 2026 Outlook roadshow across 15 cities in Asia. After thousands of interactions across hundreds of events and meetings, we summarize clients’ sentiment on markets and investments and address some common points of concern alongside recent questions on market volatility.

How are our clients thinking about the markets?

Gold was top of mind and generally expected to outperform, though January’s sharp ally and heightened volatility in recent days have made implementation more challenging. Clients remained generally positive on U.S. equities with a lot of focus still on technology and AI-related investment themes, though there is a wide dispersion on clients’ opinions on the Chinese equities depending on the market they are in. Geopolitical risks remain a key concern with many expecting a worsening of global relations. Amid the promise and pressure in various parts of the global economy and markets, our clients remain generally positive on investments, with most indicating they are interested in increasing allocations into risk assets, especially out of cash.

Our 2026 Outlook is generally aligned with those views, but thoughtful implementation within the context of a diversified portfolio is key to achieving longer-term investment goals. We see continued upside in gold but are careful about implementation amid extreme volatility. There are opportunities in tech and AI though diversification into other equity sectors and markets could help strengthen portfolios. We embrace geopolitics as a core theme of our Outlook, and approach it through playing offense (owning the beneficiaries of global fragmentation and increased security spending) and defense (owning portfolio diversifiers beyond fixed income such as hedge funds and infrastructure).

Is it too late to buy gold?

After rallying over 60% last year and another 25% this year, gold declined over 13% over a matter of days, while silver lost around 30% in one of its worst selloffs in history. While it is challenging to pinpoint a single catalyst, U.S. President Trump’s nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh could be a factor.

We view this move as a healthy technical correction following an irrational near-term rally, which washed out some speculative positioning. Prices have merely reverted to levels reached last month. Historical precedent, such as the October 2025 correction from 4,400 to 3,900, reinforce our expectation for a period of consolidation followed by recovery.

Importantly, our fundamental outlook for gold remains unchanged. Warsh is not against policy rate cuts. Despite higher chance of quantitative tightening (QT), the ongoing erosion of global fiscal discipline or the debasement narrative is unlikely to be reversed meaningfully. We expect central banks, institutions, and retail investors to continue seeking gold for reserve diversification, value storage, and risk hedging.

We revise our end-2026 gold outlook to $6,150/oz ($6,000- $6,300/oz), indicating a ~30% upside from current levels. This revision is underpinned by uncrowded positioning: 2025 data indicates emerging market (EM) central bank holdings of gold as a percentage of total reserves remained in the low teens, with China in the high single digits, highlighting further catch-up potential. ETF holdings are still below 2022–23 peaks. The broad presence of strategic, long-term buyers provides a robust floor for gold prices, reinforcing our conviction in gold over silver.

The recent spike in gold's volatility favors the use of option strategies

Gold (XAUUSD) 1-month at-the-money implied volatility

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Data as of February 2026. 

Two-way volatility has meaningfully increased given more retail participation. This environment favors the use of option strategies to capitalize on 15-year high volatility and a pronounced call skew, while incorporating downside hedges. Up until this point, many investors were caught off-guard by the sharp three-fold rally in gold over the past few years, and failed to participate in a meaningful way. Gold allocations remain light, sitting at less than 2% of assets on our platform, indicating room for long-term allocations to increase to our suggested 5%. We dive into more details in our gold paper.

What can I invest into outside of tech (and the U.S.)?

After substantial returns over the past couple of years, tech and AI were actually relative underperformers in the global equity rally in 2025. Out of the Magnificent 7, only two stocks outperformed the S&P 500 index in 2025, and many more speculative names are trading substantially below peak levels reached in late October last year. This gives us confidence that markets are not fully in “bubble” territory yet as investors have demonstrated increasing discretion and focus on corporate fundamentals as the AI race pushes past its third year.

In addition, we recognize substantial opportunities outside of tech, and markets increasingly are as well. We see opportunities in healthcare as an unloved sector with light positioning. Improving policy clarity, stabilizing earnings growth and an acceleration in M&A activity are catalysts than can continue driving performance in this sector for the coming year. We remain positive on financials on attractive valuations, a strong earnings and net interest margin outlook based on a steep yield curve, still-unrealized benefits from deregulation, and growth from advising on deals in a booming capital market.

Outside of the U.S., EM equities, particularly those in Asia, can continue to benefit from substantial tech exports. Within EM, India’s attractive valuations (after significant underperformance last year) helps it stand out as an opportunity to get invested into a long-term domestic growth story, while South Korea and Taiwan can continue capitalizing on global tech demand and extend their strong streak of returns.

Is China back?

China is coming off a strong 2025, when equity markets outperformed (MSCI China +31%, CSI300 +26%). While tech led most of the strength in markets, performance was generally broad-based across most sectors and in both onshore and offshore markets. Looking ahead, we remain cautious on China’s macroeconomic outlook due to its uneven growth profile led by exports, but see growth opportunities in tech-related sectors (as we highlighted in our 2026 Asia Outlook).

We are reluctant to chase the rally in Chinese equities at the moment but there are opportunities to buy on dips. An uneven economic outlook constrains our outlook for onshore equities. In the offshore market, we see medium-term potential for more sustained performance in select innovative sectors such as AI and tech self-reliance beneficiaries in strategic technologies like semiconductors. We also see opportunities in high-quality dividend names and underperforming consumption stocks with compelling valuations.

What’s going on in Japan?

Japanese markets have been in the spotlight recently with sharp swings in the yen alongside a surge in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields. Japan’s fundamental issue is that interest rates have been too low relative to growth and inflation fundamentals, especially since the pandemic. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has kept rates low due to the large stock of debt (at over 230% of GDP). With potentially more expansionary fiscal policy from the Takaichi government through tax cuts, global investors have been pricing in fiscal risks through higher bond yields and a weaker currency. Fundamentally, as long as Japanese interest rates remain low, and the rate differential with the U.S. remains wide, the yen could stay relatively weak despite stopgap solutions like intervention. The next key date to watch is February 8th when the next snap election takes place, where markets will find out whether the Takaichi administration can regain or expand its majority the lower house to implement aggressive fiscal policies. Current polls suggest a potentially significant victory.

What does this mean for global markets? A key concern is a potential unwind of carry trades (where investors borrow in yen to fund positions in risk assets elsewhere) which led to a sharp selloff in global risk assets in August 2024. However, Japanese investors have not been very active in global bond markets in recent years. They generally invest hedged, and hedging costs have been uneconomical. While Japan has a large stock of foreign assets, futures positioning suggest the carry trade is not stretched.

Futures positioning suggests the Yen carry trade is not stretched

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Data as of February 2026.

While we remain tactically neutral on Japanese equities in the near-term after a strong rally, we continue to maintain conviction in the market’s medium-term outlook. Reflation appears to be persistent and further fiscal support can boost domestic consumption. There is increased political and fiscal support for sectors like tech, defense and power to boost growth and bolster strategic capabilities. Corporate governance reforms also continue to accelerate, with more cash returned to shareholders and re-investing for growth. Value-enhancing initiatives such as privatizations and spin-offs are also expected to continue.

How do I invest amid so much geopolitical risk?

Geopolitics have dominated headlines since the start of 2026, with Venezuela, Greenland, Iran along with trade and tariff-related issues introducing plenty of uncertainty into markets. Beyond these immediate concerns, we have embraced global fragmentation as a key theme of our Outlook. Investors can play offense in their portfolios by owning beneficiaries of fragmentation, and play defense by concurrently incorporating hedges against the risks of fragmentation in portfolios.

We see multi-year investment opportunities in equities (both public and private) and across markets (developed and emerging) based on the following themes:

  • Defense: In response to evolving security threats and the changing nature of warfare, governments are prioritizing domestic production, technological modernization, and capacity expansion.
  • Power: Driven by the growth of AI datacenters, global demand for power has increased rapidly. As booming demand pushes up against constrained supply, securing access to power has become a matter of national security.
  • Supply chain independence: Policy direction to fuel a new wave of domestic manufacturing, automation, and technological advancement, all aimed at securing supply chain resilience and economic security.

Investors could consider commodities, real assets, and alternative strategies to hedge inflation risk

Annualized volatility, %

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management Long Term Capital Market Assumptions. Data as of October 2025.
With persistent geopolitical risks introducing upside risks to inflation and inflation volatility, portfolios need to rethink diversification. While high-quality fixed income remains a useful source of income and a hedge against downside growth risks, its role as a risk diversifier has been challenged by increasing stock-bond correlations. As such, alternative assets such as hedge funds and infrastructure can be a useful source of uncorrelated returns in an increasingly volatile investing environment. Hedge funds can provide diversification and less-correlated return streams, while infrastructure can provide stability & inflation-resilient income.

Index Definitions

XAUUSD is the ticker symbol representing the spot price of one troy ounce of gold (XAU) against the United States dollar (USD) in the forex market. It defines the amount of USD required to purchase one ounce of gold, functioning as a digital currency pair used to speculate on price movements.

SPX Index is the ticker symbol for the S&P 500 Index, a market-capitalization-weighted index tracking the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States.

MSCI China Index measures the performance of large and mid-cap Chinese equities, covering H-shares, B-shares, Red chips, P-chips, and foreign listings (e.g., ADRs).

CSI 300 Index is a free-float, capitalization-weighted stock market index consisting of the 300 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

Important Information

All market and economic data as of February 2026 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns and investors may get back less than the amount invested.

JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

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In this week’s note, we highlight key client sentiments from our 2026 Outlook roadshow across 15 Asian cities, address common concerns about market volatility, and share insights on investment trends and opportunities discussed with clients throughout the region.
Published Feb 4, 2026

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