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5 actions investors can take now

This week’s macro mania gave us confidence in our Mid-Year Outlook.

Disinflation is sending a cool wave through the summer heat. This was good news for the Federal Reserve, which signaled that when it does make its next move, it’ll be a cut. AI momentum just keeps building. Stocks are hitting more new highs and bonds are rallying, but it’s not all straightforward—dispersion lies under the surface, and risks remain, from elections to geopolitics.

How do investors play it in their portfolios? Here are five actions worth considering today.

Continue to move out of cash

Wednesday brought a doubleheader with the latest U.S. CPI print and a Fed policy meeting. It was good vibes only.

Both headline and core CPI cooled to the slowest pace we’ve seen in years. The key downside driver was “sticky” services, as Chair Powell’s “super core” services ex-shelter gauge actually fell (i.e., deflated) in May for the first time since 2021. A few hours later, the Fed signaled that the economy can handle higher rates for a bit longer and that the next move is still lower—shifting its projections from three cuts this year to just one while awaiting further inflation progress. 

Meanwhile, the race to rate cuts is already on elsewhere. Out of 37 central banks we track, 20 are now in easing mode. This means that for the first time in over two years, more central banks are cutting rather than hiking.

Times are changing. Cash has played a noble role in portfolios over the last two years and is a necessary part of any lifestyle. But even if policy rates settle in a higher range than the last cycle, the shift away from global tightening, albeit staggered, signals that today’s elevated cash yields won’t last forever. This week alone, 2-year Treasury yields have fallen over 20 basis points. Meanwhile, U.S. households hold over $20 trillion in cash across checking accounts, time deposits and money market funds, compared to roughly $15 trillion in 2019.

We believe better opportunities exist today, especially for long-term investors looking to grow and compound their wealth over time.

Embrace equity exposure

The S&P 500 just notched its 29th record high of the year. Looking back since 1950, whenever we’ve seen this many all-time highs in the first half of the year, the full year has averaged a 20% return.

Today’s backdrop looks poised to continue the upside trend. The economy is at its healthiest in decades, and inflation looks to eventually settle into a 2%–3% range. That’s historically been one of the best eras for stocks. Inflation below 3% tends to support equity valuations and benefit earnings, with companies able to raise prices while also managing costs.

Stocks are in a “sweet spot” with moderate inflation

S&P 500 one-year returns in U.S. inflation regimes, % (1950 –2023)

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of December 31, 2023. Past performance in not a reliable indicator of future results.

We’re seeing this in action: Profit margins in developed economies are near their strongest levels in decades, signaling that companies are more efficient at turning sales into profits. To boot, mega-cap firms have demonstrated exceptional earnings power despite higher rates, and it doesn’t stop there: the latest Q1 earnings season saw eight out of 11 S&P 500 sectors post profit growth, with 80% of companies beating expectations (well above the 10-year average).

But within that strength, investors should note dispersion beneath the surface. Currently, only about one-quarter of stocks have outperformed the S&P 500’s 14% year-to-date return, near the lowest share in the past 10 years. This creates opportunities for active investment decisions. We see some of the strongest potential across sectors such as technology, industrials, consumer discretionary and healthcare, and are always on the hunt for mispricings. For instance, some of the highest-quality small- and mid-cap companies are trading at a meaningful discount to their large-cap peers. 

Lean in to credit opportunities

After the rate reset, bonds are back to being bonds. Most pockets of fixed income, outside of Treasuries, are now outyielding cash for the first time in two years. As a strong (albeit slowing) economy keeps default rates low, we think investors can pick up even greater yields by going out on the credit risk spectrum—building in strong income potential as well as protection in the event of a downturn.

Many segments of fixed income now outyield cash

Yield, %

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Note: U.S. cash represented by the generic U.S. 3-month T-Bill yield, U.S. Investment Grade (IG) represented by the J.P. Morgan U.S. Liquid Index, Euro IG by the Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Index, Euro HY by Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield (HY) Index, U.S. HY by the J.P. Morgan Domestic HY Index, Preferreds by the ICE Variable Rate Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index, and Munis by Bloomberg Municipal Bond 10-year (8-12) Index. Note: Tax Equivalent Yield (TEY) tax calculation assumes highest federal income tax of 37% and a Medicare tax of 3.8%, excludes state and local taxes. Data as of June 13, 2024. Past performance in not a reliable indicator of future results.

Some opportunities may not last forever. For instance, the municipal bond market is more seasonal than that for corporate credit. Over the last few weeks, a record supply of new bond issues has pushed muni yields well above average. But as supply tends to dry up over the course of summer, yields may not be this high for much longer.

The rest of the credit landscape also shows why it’s a good time to be a new lender. Direct lending, a segment of private credit, is offering yields around 11%. We think this more than compensates investors for potential default losses. Elsewhere, specialized credit investors can capitalize on the reality that not all borrowers are created equal, stepping in to help companies and their creditors renegotiate their agreements. Such “amend and extend” transactions increased tenfold between 2022 and 2023.

Position for the AI revolution—but be discerning

This week’s news flow has only added to the AI buzz with the announcement of “Apple Intelligence,” alongside stellar earnings reports from the likes of software leaders Oracle and Adobe, and chipmaker Broadcom. Combined, those four companies have added some $430 billion to the S&P 500’s market cap this week (through Thursday’s close).

In all, the market seems to be sussing out which AI players can demonstrate real productivity gains, revenue creation, or both. That approval does not come easy—even for tech giants. For example, Apple has lagged behind its “Magnificent 7” counterparts for most of the year, and it even took a few days for markets to welcome its latest efforts.

In time, we believe the potential-use cases span almost every industry, and that’s not to mention the massive infrastructure needed to power it. One inquiry on ChatGPT requires up to 10x more power than a traditional web search. As we decipher the power and capabilities of AI, we believe it will be transformative, akin to the internet and the steam engine. But as in those times too, a discerning eye is key. Some of the future winners may not even exist yet.

AI is expected to lift productivity by the end of the decade

Years from innovation breakthrough to rising macro productivity growth

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey. Data as of November 2023.

Add armor to your portfolio

Risks of all kinds are apparent. For instance, this week brought word that France is joining the election party, and the injection of more political risk brought its fair share of jitters.

But while France’s CAC 40 Index was down more than 5% this week, the S&P 500 made a new record high every day of the week so far. That signals how markets closest to key events and uncertainties can be particularly sensitive, but more often than not, they do not derail the broader global economic and market backdrop.

In turn, the overarching theme of our Mid-Year Outlook rests on the fact that global economic strength exists alongside genuine risks that warrant monitoring, especially around elections and continued geopolitical turmoil. This requires investors to be alert and to insulate portfolios from destabilizing events—whether that be through diversification, tax-efficient planning or investments oriented around the changing world order.

In all, we see a strong economy in a fragile world. To us, that looks like a healthy backdrop for investors as they prepare for the second half of 2024. Read our Mid-Year Outlook and discuss it with your J.P. Morgan advisor for more on these insights. 

All market and economic data as of June 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

Index definitions:

  • The Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Bond Index is a benchmark that measures the investment grade, euro-denominated, fixed-rate bond market, including treasuries, government-related, corporate and securitized issues. Inclusion is based on currency denomination of a bond and not country of risk of the issuer.
  • The Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index includes all publicly issued zero-coupon U.S. Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity of less than 3 months and more than 1 month, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in U.S. dollars and must be fixed rate and non-convertible.
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and prerefunded bonds.
  • The Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Bond Index measures the market of non-investment grade, fixed-rate corporate bonds denominated in the following currencies: euro, pounds sterling, Danish krone, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. Inclusion is based on the currency of issue, and not the domicile of the issuer.
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded
  • The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index. The index represents a capitalization-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris.
  • The ICE Variable Rate Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index (PVAR) is designed to track the performance of floating- and variable-rate investment-grade and below-investment-grade U.S. dollar preferred stock, as well as certain types of hybrid securities determined by the index provider, comparable to preferred stocks, that are issued by corporations in the U.S. market.
  • The S&P 500 is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
     The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
     Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
     The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
     Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.
  • Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.​
  • The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to “stock market risk” meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.​
  • Investment in alternative investment strategies is speculative, often involves a greater degree of risk than traditional investments including limited liquidity and limited transparency, among other factors and should only be considered by sophisticated investors with the financial capability to accept the loss of all or part of the assets devoted to such strategies.​
This week’s macro mania gave us confidence in our Mid-Year Outlook. How can investors respond?

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All market and economic data as of June 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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References to “J.P. Morgan” are to JPM, its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. “J.P. Morgan Private Bank” is the brand name for the private banking business conducted by JPM. This material is intended for your personal use and should not be circulated to or used by any other person, or duplicated for non-personal use, without our permission. If you have any questions or no longer wish to receive these communications, please contact your J.P. Morgan team.

© $$YEAR JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

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To learn more about J.P. Morgan’s investment business, including our accounts, products and services, as well as our relationship with you, please review our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Form CRS and Guide to Investment Services and Brokerage Products

 

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively "JPMCB") offer investment products, which may include bank-managed accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

 

Please read the Legal Disclaimer for key important J.P. Morgan Private Bank information in conjunction with these pages.

INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

Bank deposit products, such as checking, savings and bank lending and related services are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

Not a commitment to lend. All extensions of credit are subject to credit approval.

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