Real estate, hedge funds, and other private investments may not be suitable for all individual investors, may present significant risks, and may be sold or redeemed at more or less than the original amount invested. Private investments are offered only by offering memoranda, which more fully describe the possible risks. There are no assurances that the stated investment objectives of any investment product will be met.
Understanding Long Term Estimates
Our investment management research incorporates our proprietary projections of the returns and volatility of each asset class over the long term, as well as estimates of the correlations among asset classes. Clearly, financial firms cannot predict how markets will perform in the future. But we do believe that by analyzing current economic and market conditions and historical market trends, and then, most critically, making projections of future economic growth, inflation, and real yields for each country, we can estimate the long-term performance for an entire asset class, given current and our estimated equilibrium levels. The “equilibrium” level shows the average or central tendency of a market or macroeconomic variable such as yield or credit spread that is expected to prevail over the long-term, because the level represents the value inherent in a given market. The return assumptions are based on our proprietary process of using a building block approach for each of the asset classes. For instance, the building blocks for equity consist of our projections on inflation, real earnings growth, dividend yield and the impact of valuations. The building blocks for fixed income consist of our projections for future yields and the change in bond prices. The estimates for alternatives are driven by our historical analysis and judgment about the relationship to public markets. It is possible – indeed, probable – that actual returns will vary considerably from this expectation, even for a number of years. But we believe that market returns will always at some point return to the equilibrium trend. We further believe that these kinds of forward-looking assessments are far more accurate than historical trends in deciding what asset class performance will be, and how best to determine an optimal asset mix.
In reviewing this material, please understand that all references to expected return are not promises, or even estimates, of actual returns one may achieve. The assumptions are not based on specific products and do not reflect fees, such as investment management fees, oversight fees, transaction costs or other expenses that could reduce return. They simply show what the long-term return should be, according to our best estimates of current and equilibrium conditions. Also note that actual performance may be affected by the expertise of the person who actually manages these investments, both in picking individual securities and possibly adjusting the mix periodically to take advantage of asset class undervaluations and overvaluations caused by market trends.
For the purpose of this analysis volatility is defined as a statistical measure of the dispersion of return for a given allocation and is measured as the standard deviation of the allocation’s arithmetic return. The Sharpe ratio is a return/risk measure, where the return (the numerator) is defined as the incremental annual return of an investment over the risk free rate. Risk (the denominator) is defined as the standard deviation (volatility) of the allocation’s return less the risk free rate. The risk free rate utilized is J.P. Morgan’s long-term assumption for Cash. Correlation is a statistical measure of the degree to which the movements of two variables, in this case asset class returns, are related. Correlation can range from -1 to 1 with 1 indicating that the returns of two assets move directionally in concert with one another, i.e. they behave in the same way during the same time. A correlation of 0 indicates that the returns move independently of each other and -1 indicates that they move in the opposite direction.
This material is for information purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by private banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, are subject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations. If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing this material, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org for assistance. Please read all Important Information.
GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS. Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.
NON-RELIANCE. Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.
Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT YOUR INVESTMENTS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
Conflicts of interest will arise whenever JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates (together, “J.P. Morgan”) have an actual or perceived economic or other incentive in its management of our clients’ portfolios to act in a way that benefits J.P. Morgan. Conflicts will result, for example (to the extent the following activities are permitted in your account): (1) when J.P. Morgan invests in an investment product, such as a mutual fund, structured product, separately managed account or hedge fund issued or managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or an affiliate, such as J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.; (2) when a J.P. Morgan entity obtains services, including trade execution and trade clearing, from an affiliate; (3) when J.P. Morgan receives payment as a result of purchasing an investment product for a client’s account; or (4) when J.P. Morgan receives payment for providing services (including shareholder servicing, recordkeeping or custody) with respect to investment products purchased for a client’s portfolio. Other conflicts will result because of relationships that J.P. Morgan has with other clients or when J.P. Morgan acts for its own account.
Investment strategies are selected from both J.P. Morgan and third-party asset managers and are subject to a review process by our manager research teams. From this pool of strategies, our portfolio construction teams select those strategies we believe fit our asset allocation goals and forward looking views in order to meet the portfolio's investment objective.
As a general matter, we prefer J.P. Morgan managed strategies. We expect the proportion of J.P. Morgan managed strategies will be high (in fact, up to 100 percent) in strategies such as, for example, cash and high-quality fixed income, subject to applicable law and any account-specific considerations.
While our internally managed strategies generally align well with our forward-looking views, and we are familiar with the investment processes as well as the risk and compliance philosophy of the firm, it is important to note that J.P. Morgan receives more overall fees when internally managed strategies are included. We offer the option of choosing to exclude J.P. Morgan managed strategies (other than cash and liquidity products) in certain portfolios.
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