locate an office

offices near you

office near you

Investment Strategy

The bull and bear cases for 2023

Apr 14, 2023

From the global economy to stocks and bonds, investors consider the path forward for a market that’s looking much different this year than last.

Our Top Market Takeaways for April 14, 2023

Market update

It ain’t 2022 anymore

Perhaps the clearest sign that markets have moved on from 2022 is that not even the latest Consumer Price Inflation data could cause much of a ruckus.

After the release suggested a relatively ho-hum increase in prices (0.4% for core, 0.1% for headline on the month), investors shifted focus to the upcoming earnings season, hoping to learn more about the state of bank deposits, consumer spending and technology turnaround efforts.

The returns we have seen stand in stark contrast to 2022’s risk-off environment. From their respective lows, Bitcoin has surged almost 100%, Chinese internet companies have gained over 70%, mega-cap tech stocks are up nearly 50%, and even the ARKK Innovation ETF, which shed two-thirds of its value in 2022, has bounced by 33%. The best stock in the S&P 500 this year (NVIDIA) is up over 80%. In 2022, it lost 50%.

European equities are close to all-time highs, and core bonds have provided a workmanlike 3.5% return. The U.S. dollar is close to its lowest levels in a year. 

The most valuable players in portfolios last year were short-term Treasuries. This year, most major asset classes are outpacing T-bills. Energy and commodities, the other 2022 standouts, have also lagged.

We welcome the vibe shift in markets, but there is no shortage of debate about what the rest of the year has in store. In today’s note, we review the case that both bulls and bears make for the path forward, then provide our take.

Spotlight

Bull vs. Bear

 

The U.S. economy

The bears have a lot of evidence they need to make their calls for a U.S. recession. Rate hikes have consequences after all. The failure of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks may not have led to a crisis of confidence, but the problems for bank profitability and credit availability may just be getting started. Small businesses are already reporting that credit is harder to find, the office real estate sector will likely have a material distress cycle, given higher interest and vacancy rates, and continuing jobless claims are starting to signal cracks in the labor market.

Bears say: a credit crunch will restrict growth further

Source: Federal Reserve Board, National Bureau of Economic Research, Haver Analytics. Data as of March 31, 2023. Note: shaded bars represent recession
The chart describes the % of Federal Reserve Board senior officers saying that banks are tightening C&I loans to large firms. There are recession shades throughout the chart to represent the time and window of recession. The first data point came in at 54.4% in June 1990 before dropping to a low at -25% in September 1993. Then it rose to 59.6% in March 2001 before dropping to a low point at -24.1% in June 2005. Then it reached the all-time high at 83.6% in December 2008 before dropping shortly after to a low at -21.8% in September 2011. Then it fluctuated in the range before jumping to a high point at 71.2% in September 2020 before dropping to -32.4% in September 2021. The series ended at 44.8% in March 2023. For recession shades, the first recession shade started in August 1990 and ended in March 1991. The second recession shade started in April 2001 and ended in November 2001. The third recession shade started in January 2008 and ended in April 2009. The fourth recession shade started in March 2020 and ended in April 2020

The bulls still have a decent case to make. Wage inflation seems well on its way to normalization without any rise in the unemployment rate, which seems to settle one of the key macroeconomic debates of the last 18 months. Even though strains are just starting in the office sector, the residential housing market is showing tentative signs of turning a corner. Housing market sentiment and home sales are tentatively perking up.

Our take is that it still seems like a recession is more likely than not, but a softer landing is possible. We will be watching closely for signs that the credit crunch from March is having a sustained negative impact through the spring.

 

The global economy

The bears on the global economy seem to be worried about geopolitical risks, energy crises, an unpredictable war and unresolved trade issues between the United States and China. It makes sense to keep a keen focus on all of these unresolved issues that threaten economic growth and stability. In fact, our Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon spent time discussing them in his latest letter to shareholders. The biggest risks facing the global economy outside the United States are probably not endemic to the business cycle, but are still very important to monitor.

The bulls seem to have the upper hand here. Global Purchasing Manager Indices, which offer a real-time indication of business activity, are at their highest levels since last summer and have had a tremendous bounce since last fall. A weaker dollar helps grease the wheels of global trade, and China’s reopening continues to provide a boost. Louis Vuitton helped drive the French stock market to an all-time high this week after strong sales in China.

Bulls say: global PMIs are their highest levels in 9 months

Source: J.P. Morgan, S&P Global, FactSet. Data as of March 31, 2023
The chart describes Global PMI from January 2010 until March 2023. Values that are higher than or equal to 50 are considered expansionary. The first data point came in at 55.3 in January 2010. Shortly after, it rose to a peak at 56.9 in April 2010 before dropping all the way and bottoming at 50.0 in September 2012. It then went up to 55.2 in June 2014 before bottoming at 50.5 in February 2016. It soon went back up to 54.8 in February 2018 before dropping all the way to 39.1 in March 2020. Then it climbed all the way to 58.5 in May 2021. It soon dropped to a low point at 48.0 in November 2022. The series ended at 53.4 in March 2023.

Our take is that growth prospects outside the United States look better than they do inside the United States. This means the dollar is likely to continue to weaken, and investors should look to European and Chinese stock markets, which could continue to perform well.

 

The bond market

The bears on bonds have a simple case: The economy is still chugging along and inflation is still at ~5%. It doesn’t make much sense for yields to fall (and bond prices to rise) as long as growth remains resilient and inflation stays sticky.

The bulls say markets only have ~80 basis points (bps) of interest rate cuts priced in over the next 12 months. In the average recession back to the 1950s, the Federal Reserve has cut by an average of ~300 bps (excluding Volcker’s 1980 campaign). In a recession, Fed cuts will likely be deep, and price gains in core bonds could be steep.

Historically, the Fed cut by an average of 300bps in recession

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of April 11, 2023.
The chart describes the change (in basis points) in the effective fed funds rate 12 months following the start of recession. The chart data describes a total of 10 recessions in a bar chart format. It also included a bar that describes the average of all recessions except for the 1980 outlier, and another bar that describes the current market pricing for 12 months from now. Here are the change (bps) in effective fed funds rate 12 months following the start of recession: 1957: -171 1960: -243 1970: -407 1973: -58 1980: 526 1981: -645 1990: -233 2001: -376 2008: -408 2020: -147 Average ex-1980: -299 Current Market Pricing: -81

Our take if our base case on the economy plays out is that we could be in for much lower interest rates (and higher bond prices) over the next 12–18 months. However, for the tactical investor, there may be better entry points in the weeks ahead.

 

The stock market

The bears point to the ominous U.S. economic backdrop to justify their view that stocks should head lower. Valuations also seem to be embedding a high degree of confidence in a relatively benign earnings outcome. The forward P/E multiple of the S&P 500 is above 18x again, and the spread between what you can yield from earnings and what you can get from corporate bonds is the tightest of the last 10 years.

The bulls suggest the earnings recession that we have been in is set to end after this quarter. After that, consensus expectations call for earnings growth to quickly bounce back to a low teens pace by the end of the year. Beyond the fundamentals, positioning seems short, which could set the market up for a squeeze higher if we have an upside surprise this earnings season.

Our take is that neither are right. Instead, we expect choppy, rangebound trading through the rest of the year. Certain sectors (healthcare, industrials and reasonably priced tech) and sizes (mid-caps) may outperform, but at an index level, we are pretty close to where we think the market will likely end the year.

Takeaways

Back to reality

 

The hardest part about 2022 was that barely any investments worked.

What we have learned so far this year is that 2022’s environment of boiling inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes is in the rearview mirror.

The debate between bulls and bears will continue, but investors should take comfort in the idea that assets are doing what they need them to do to achieve long-term success. Equities drive long-term growth. Bonds provide stability and security. Alternatives allow for the potential to outperform public markets and access unique opportunities.

We can help address the investment challenges ahead while building portfolios that help you reach your financial goals.

Get Top Market Takeaways delivered to your inbox.

Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss. ​

Small capitalization companies typically carry more risk than well-established "blue-chip" companies since smaller companies can carry a higher degree of market volatility than most large cap and/or blue-chip companies.​

International investments may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the United States and other nations. Investments in international markets can be more volatile.​

Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.​

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged, market-value weighted index comprised of taxable U.S. investment grade, fixed rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.

The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The index consists of 23 developed market country indexes and 24 emerging market country indices.

The NYSE FANG+ Index is an equal-dollar weighted Index designed to represent a segment of the technology and consumer discretionary sectors consisting of 10 highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies.

All market and economic data as of April 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

Contact us to discuss how we can help you experience the full possibility of your wealth.

Please tell us about yourself, and our team will contact you. 

*Required Fields

Contact us to discuss how we can help you experience the full possibility of your wealth.

Please tell us about yourself, and our team will contact you. 

Enter your First Name

> or < are not allowed

Only 40 characters allowed

Enter your Last Name

> or < are not allowed

Only 40 characters allowed

Select your country of residence

Enter valid street address

> or < are not allowed

Only 150 characters allowed

Enter your city

> or < are not allowed

Only 35 characters allowed

Select your state

> or < are not allowed

Enter your ZIP code

Please enter a valid zipcode

> or < are not allowed

Only 10 characters allowed

Enter your postal code

Please enter a valid zipcode

> or < are not allowed

Only 10 characters allowed

Enter your phone number

Tell Us More About You

0/1000

Only 1000 characters allowed

Checkbox is not selected

Your Recent History

Important Information

All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

All market and economic data as of April 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision.

KEY RISKS. This material is for information purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by private banking businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, are subject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations. If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing this material, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at accessibility.support@jpmorgan.com for assistance. Please read all Important Information.

GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS

Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

NON-RELIANCE

Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/ reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT YOUR INVESTMENTS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

Conflicts of interest will arise whenever JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates (together, “J.P. Morgan”) have an actual or perceived economic or other incentive in its management of our clients’ portfolios to act in a way that benefits J.P. Morgan. Conflicts will result, for example (to the extent the following activities are permitted in your account): (1) when J.P. Morgan invests in an investment product, such as a mutual fund, structured product, separately managed account or hedge fund issued or managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or an affiliate, such as J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.; (2) when a J.P. Morgan entity obtains services, including trade execution and trade clearing, from an affiliate; (3) when J.P. Morgan receives payment as a result of purchasing an investment product for a client’s account; or (4) when J.P. Morgan receives payment for providing services (including shareholder servicing, recordkeeping or custody) with respect to investment products purchased for a client’s portfolio. Other conflicts will result because of relationships that J.P. Morgan has with other clients or when J.P. Morgan acts for its own account.

Investment strategies are selected from both J.P. Morgan and third-party asset managers and are subject to a review process by our manager research teams. From this pool of strategies, our portfolio construction teams select those strategies we believe fit our asset allocation goals and forward-looking views in order to meet the portfolio's investment objective.

As a general matter, we prefer J.P. Morgan managed strategies. We expect the proportion of J.P. Morgan managed strategies will be high (in fact, up to 100 percent) in strategies such as, for example, cash and high-quality fixed income, subject to applicable law and any account-specific considerations.

While our internally managed strategies generally align well with our forward-looking views, and we are familiar with the investment processes as well as the risk and compliance philosophy of the firm, it is important to note that J.P. Morgan receives more overall fees when internally managed strategies are included. We offer the option of choosing to exclude J.P. Morgan managed strategies (other than cash and liquidity products) in certain portfolios.

LEGAL ENTITY, BRAND & REGULATORY INFORMATION

In the United States, bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively “JPMCB”) offer investment products, which may include bank managed investment accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPM. Products not available in all states.

In Germany, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE, with its registered office at Taunustor 1 (TaunusTurm), 60310 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB). In Luxembourg, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE – Luxembourg Branch, with registered office at European Bank and Business Centre, 6 route de Treves, L-2633, Senningerberg, Luxembourg, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Luxembourg Branch is also supervised by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF); registered under R.C.S Luxembourg B255938. In the United Kingdom, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE – London Branch, registered office at 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – London Branch is also supervised by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. In Spain, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE, Sucursal en España, with registered office at Paseo de la Castellana, 31, 28046 Madrid, Spain, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE, Sucursal en España is also supervised by the Spanish Securities Market Commission (CNMV); registered with Bank of Spain as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 1567. In Italy, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Milan Branch, with its registered office at Via Cordusio, n.3, Milan 20123, Italy, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Milan Branch is also supervised by Bank of Italy and the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB); registered with Bank of Italy as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 8076; Milan Chamber of Commerce Registered Number: REA MI 2536325. In the Netherlands, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Amsterdam Branch, with registered office at World Trade Centre, Tower B, Strawinskylaan 1135, 1077 XX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Amsterdam Branch is also supervised by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and the Autoriteit Financiële Markten (AFM) in the Netherlands. Registered with the Kamer van Koophandel as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under registration number 72610220. In Denmark, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Copenhagen Branch, filial af J.P. Morgan SE, Tyskland, with registered office at Kalvebod Brygge 39-41, 1560 København V, Denmark, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Copenhagen Branch, filial af J.P. Morgan SE, Tyskland is also supervised by Finanstilsynet (Danish FSA) and is registered with Finanstilsynet as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 29010. In Sweden, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Stockholm Bankfilial, with registered office at Hamngatan 15, Stockholm, 11147, Sweden, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Stockholm Bankfilial is also supervised by Finansinspektionen (Swedish FSA); registered with Finansinspektionen as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE. In France, this material is distributed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.–Paris Branch, registered office at 14,Place Vendome, Paris 75001, France, registered at the Registry of the Commercial Court of Paris under number 712 041 334 and licensed by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR) and supervised by the ACPR and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. In Switzerland, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, with registered address at rue du Rhône, 35, 1204, Geneva, Switzerland, which is authorised and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) as a bank and a securities dealer in Switzerland.

In Hong Kong, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Hong Kong branch. JPMCB, Hong Kong branch is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, we will cease to use your personal data for our marketing purposes without charge if you so request. In Singapore, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Singapore branch. JPMCB, Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Dealing and advisory services and discretionary investment management services are provided to you by JPMCB, Hong Kong/Singapore branch (as notified to you). Banking and custody services are provided to you by JPMCB Singapore Branch. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong, Singapore or any other jurisdictions. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to this document. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. For materials which constitute product advertisement under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisers Act, this advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., a national banking association chartered under the laws of the United States, and as a body corporate, its shareholder’s liability is limited.

With respect to countries in Latin America, the distribution of this material may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. We may offer and/or sell to you securities or other financial instruments which may not be registered under, and are not the subject of a public offering under, the securities or other financial regulatory laws of your home country. Such securities or instruments are offered and/or sold to you on a private basis only. Any communication by us to you regarding such securities or instruments, including without limitation the delivery of a prospectus, term sheet or other offering document, is not intended by us as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or instruments in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or a solicitation is unlawful. Furthermore, such securities or instruments may be subject to certain regulatory and/or contractual restrictions on subsequent transfer by you, and you are solely responsible for ascertaining and complying with such restrictions. To the extent this content makes reference to a fund, the Fund may not be publicly offered in any Latin American country, without previous registration of such fund´s securities in compliance with the laws of the corresponding jurisdiction. Public offering of any security, including the shares of the Fund, without previous registration at Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission–CVM is completely prohibited. Some products or services contained in the materials might not be currently provided by the Brazilian and Mexican platforms.

References to “J.P. Morgan” are to JPM, its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. “J.P. Morgan Private Bank” is the brand name for the private banking business conducted by JPM. This material is intended for your personal use and should not be circulated to or used by any other person, or duplicated for non-personal use, without our permission. If you have any questions or no longer wish to receive these communications, please contact your J.P. Morgan team.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

LEARN MORE About Our Firm and Investment Professionals Through FINRA Brokercheck

To learn more about J.P. Morgan’s investment business, including our accounts, products and services, as well as our relationship with you, please review our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Form CRS and Guide to Investment Services and Brokerage Products

 

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively "JPMCB") offer investment products, which may include bank-managed accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states. Please read the Legal Disclaimer in conjunction with these pages.

INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

Equal Housing Lender Icon Bank deposit products, such as checking, savings and bank lending and related services are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Not a commitment to lend. All extensions of credit are subject to credit approval.