In this week’s note, we introduce new tools we are using to track the rebirth of the US consumer as a function of infection severity and state policy using real-time debit and credit card data.  Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, either around the world or in the US; and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac)  and anticoagulants.

Read more here.

Line chart which illustrates credit and debit card spending changes from 2019 to 2020 according to quartile of total COVID infections per million people, specifically using “social distancing categories” and card present transactions only. Spending across all quartiles bottomed in March, before gradually beginning to recover. States with the lowest quartile of total COVID infections experienced a more rapid recovery than states in the higher quartiles of total COVID infections.