In this week’s note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.  We compare the U.S. and China versions of an “economic lockdown” and, unsurprisingly, find that they’re quite different in terms of magnitude and impact.  We conclude with a discussion of using convalescent plasma as a COVID-19 treatment and, with charts for investors, why the shape of a recovery is less important than the equity lead time vs. the recovery in the real economy.

Read more here.