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Investment Strategy

Navigating rate risks: How bonds are better positioned in 2025

Market Update

A late rally on Friday afternoon wasn’t enough to stop U.S. equities from declining for the second consecutive week.

The main drivers of the weakness were earnings and more U.S. policy speculation. Nvidia (-7%) exceeded earnings expectations but forecasted a decline in its gross margins, disappointing investors. Political news added to the sell-off as President Trump affirmed that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, with an additional 10% tax to be imposed on Chinese imports.

The culmination of these factors is leading to increased market volatility. The S&P 500 is now close to flat on the year after being up ~5% just a couple of weeks ago. The largest companies in the index (Magnificent 7, -6.5%) have been notably weak, and have dragged the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 into negative territory for the year.

Europe has meanwhile continued its outperformance as sentiment in the region has driven a valuation expansion. Defense stocks in particular are rallying after weekend headlines suggested European leaders were meeting to discuss plans to boost defense capabilities. We wrote about this theme in last week’s note.

Recent economic data has also hinted at growth scares in the United States. With that, fixed income is once again providing diversification. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries just posted their seventh consecutive week of lower yields—the longest streak since 2019. The 10-year yield (4.25%) was more than 20 basis points lower last week, and the 2-year yield has now fallen below 4% for the first time since October.

As diversification has come back into focus, today’s note focuses on global equities and fixed income.

Spotlight

This year began with Wall Street in consensus. Slowing growth in Europe and China, contrasted by a release of animal spirits and deregulation in the United States, was expected to lead to a continuation of U.S. exceptionalism.

Two months into 2025, that consensus expectation hasn’t materialized. The United States is toward the bottom of the list in developed country equity performance, while Europe and China have rallied.

U.S. equites have underperformed most developed markets and China

Select country price return, MSCI Indices, year-to-date %

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of February 28, 2025

Chinese equities entered the year trading over two standard deviations below their average forward P/E over the last three years. A significant advancement in AI technology through Deepseek’s Mode-of-Experts method changed sentiment in the region. Equities rallied and valuations increased, leading to the forward P/E now trading about one standard deviation above its three-year average.

A similar story unfolded in Europe. The region typically trades at a 25%–30% P/E discount relative to the United States, but entered the year at about a 40% discount. In mid-January, earnings expectations troughed and saw a ~1% increase. Combined with a tailwind from increased defense spending as terms are being negotiated to potentially end the war in Ukraine, the region has rallied more than +12% year-to-date. Now, the region trades closer to that typical 25%–30% discount to the United States.

What’s common in both stories is that we don’t believe anything in the fundamental drivers of the economy, or the earnings picture, has changed—the rally was driven by sentiment and a valuation catch-up.

Conversely, the underperformance in the United States was driven by a lag in the tech sector. Softer data in the United States and news that Microsoft may be canceling some of its data center leases caused a sell-off in the S&P’s largest sector (tech, at 30% of the index). Additionally, the largest names in the index have lagged their peers, with the Magnificent 7 declining -6.5% year-to-date. That marks a significant change from the last two years, when they contributed 60% and 54% of index performance in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

The outperformance ex-U.S. is why we advocate for diversification in portfolios to capture those pockets of outperformance from other markets. We believe the 25% allocation to developed world ex-U.S. equities in the MSCI World Index serves as a good benchmark for investor portfolios.

We advocate for diversification not only across equity geographies, but also across asset classes. One such asset class, which was also an out-of-consensus call for 2025, is fixed income.

Investors have pushed back against fixed income because its correlation with equities has risen over the last two years, meaning that fixed income isn’t “zigging” when equities are “zagging,” as it has in the past. However, this is because the shock we experienced in markets over that period was an inflation shock. Fixed income doesn’t insulate portfolios from inflation. As the name suggests, your income is “fixed,” and if prices are rising simultaneously, then all else being equal, your purchasing power has eroded. This is why we have advocated for adding resilience to portfolios to hedge from inflation through assets such as real estate, infrastructure, structures and gold.

However, fixed income does still help to diversify portfolios; it hedges them specifically from growth shocks regardless of increasing correlations with equities. As such, we’re reminding investors of some of the fundamental principles of fixed income investing to guide their 2025 portfolio allocation decisions.

Bonds can still hedge against growth slowdowns

S&P 500 index level and 10-year U.S Treasury total return

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of February 26, 2025. 10-year represented using the Bloomberg US Government 10 Year Term Index Total Return Index. Tech wreck measures Jun '00-Dec '03, GFC measures Sep '07-Dec '09, U.S. debt downgrade measures Dec '10 to Nov '11, China currency devaluation measures Jun '15-Feb '16, Fed tightening fears measures Sep '18-Jan '19, Covid-19 measures Jan '20-March '20, Sahm rule triggered measures 2 Aug '24-5 Aug '24, Softer growth data measures 18 Feb '25-26 Feb '25.

Bonds today are better positioned against a rate sell-off. A concern often raised by investors who held bonds through the rate sell-off of 2022 is the risk of adverse performance if rates increase again. The critical difference between a rate sell-off now and the rate sell-off that began in 2022 is that an investor today receives much more income because of the higher starting yield.

We can see an example of this if we compare the performance of the 10-year Treasury in early 2022 to late 2024. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately 80 basis points over the first quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2024, but the starting yield at the start of Q1 2022 was only 1.5%, while the starting yield at the start of Q4 2024 was 3.8%. Performance was 200 basis points higher in 2024 because the starting yield was more than double that during 2022. In other words, investors received more than twice the income they had received two years earlier to offset a similar shift in rates. Higher yields can provide a cushion to adverse moves (rising) in rates, and compound on top of price appreciation in an advantageous scenario (falling rates).

There is asymmetry in fixed income returns

Fixed income returns given yield move scenarios

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of March 3, 2025.
Starting yield can be a very good indicator of future return. About 88% of the five-year annualized Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index return can be explained by the starting yield. Even without a regression analysis, this makes logical sense. Yield-to-maturity can be interpreted as the average rate of return that will be earned on a bond if it is bought now and held to maturity. As long as the issuer does not default, which is unlikely in investment grade sectors, an investor can expect to receive approximately the starting yield in annualized total return for the duration of their investment regardless of how rates and spreads change, or how the equity market performs.

Starting yields have historically been a good indicator of future returns

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bonds starting yield and 5-year annualized return, %

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of February 28, 2025. Returns are 60-month annualized total returns measured monthly beginning 1/31/1976. R^2 represents the total variation in total returns that can be explained by yields at the start of each period.

Investors are once again compensated for interest rate risk. Fixed income markets passed a milestone on October 23, 2024, when the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index once again began to outyield the 3-month Treasury bill. For the first time since January 2023, investors were compensated for stepping out of cash and taking credit and duration risk. The same also became true for European bonds earlier in the same month. For those clients with excess cash, now may be the right time to consider an allocation to fixed income assets, not only for the pickup in yield but also for the hedging power in a traditional growth slowdown. The risk to this approach is that resurgent inflation and subsequent rate volatility lead to a sell-off, but our base case remains anchored in continued disinflation even if the Federal Reserve pauses for an extended period.

Rotating from cash to an investment grade corporate bond strategy pays a yield premium over cash and has also historically offered a hedge against slower growth. This wasn’t the case six months ago. Consider these dual advantages when allocating capital.

Curious as to how diversification can help you achieve your long-term goals? Reach out to your J.P. Morgan team.

 

All market and economic data as of February 2025 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

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  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
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Important Information


  • The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets.
  • The S&P 500 is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
  • The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.
  • Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Price Return Index is an equal-dollar weighted equity benchmark consisting of a fixed basket of 7 widely-traded companies classified in the United States and representing the Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors as defined by Bloomberg Industry Classification System (BICS).
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  • The Bloomberg US Aggregate Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

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Higher yields make bonds a strategic choice for investors looking to navigate the complexities of rate changes in 2025.

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