Outlook revisited: What's next for investors

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Welcome. Thank you for joining us today as we approach the end of the first quarter of 2024. I'm Grace Peters, and I'm delighted to be joined today by some familiar faces. We have Tom Kennedy, our chief investment strategist, and Elyse Ausenbaugh, the global market strategist.

Now our 2024 outlook was published on the 5th of December, and titled, After the Rate Reset. The main point being that 2024 would bring a turning point in the interest rate cycle, and this could have many positive implications across asset classes. A record number of you engaged with the outlook, and since then our senior team have been on the road and seen over 3500 clients around the world, and we've had some really interactive discussions about macro markets, and of course our investment advice.

So the purpose of today is really threefold. Firstly, a report card. What are the five key things we said, and how is it going? We'd also then like to address top questions from the road. What are the reoccurring questions, concerns, and pushbacks that we've heard from you. And then finally we'll end with the most relevant themes driving markets, both for the remainder of this year, but also on a multi-year time frame. Spoiler alert, our mid-year outlook is going to be published in June. It'll be a natural extension of today's narrative, so we hope you look forward to it.

So let's start with that recap of the five main points from the 2024 outlook. And I will just say that a summary of this was published last week, and you're going to get a little link with the email that you receive after this webinar, so do click on that if you want more details, but there were five things that we focused on when we look to the year ahead.

The first was around cash. We said that interest rates were coming, and as a result of that, this was as good as it gets for the return that you can earn on cash. And how are we tracking? Well, we still see central bankers, whether it be the Fed or the ECB, continuing to indicate cuts will come this year. On timing, we stick with June. We think that's when the first cut is going to be enacted.

And when it comes to the pace, a steady pace, no need to rush. We've actually reduced the number of cuts we expect this year from 5 to 3, because the economy is chugging along, and we've kept our odds for a soft landing at around 60%. So in that environment, we expect stocks and bonds to continue to outperform cash.

And that's, Grace, to the point is been more or less the experience we've had so far to start the year. Stocks have materially out-performed cash. Core bond index has lagged a little bit, but the point of owning bonds is to be ahead of those rate cuts.

Very good. We're going to come back to some of that. The second point was on inflation. We still think this the key macro variable. In the outlook, we spoke about core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure, heading back to 2% to 2.5%. Now it feels this year that the disinflation process may have slowed primarily down to the strength of the economy, but we still very much think that 2% to 2.5% range is the right one for both the US and the Eurozone, but we would draw out that, as we highlighted in the outlook, the 2% target from central banks may be more of a floor than a ceiling this time around.

The third point was on stocks. We spoke about entering a sweet spot, and that we thought equities would make fresh, all-time highs. Indeed, history shows that period where you're seeing Fed rate cuts, but there isn't a recession, actually delivers some of the very best equity market returns. And we believe fundamentals to be constructive, whether that be corporate profits, balance sheet strength, and obviously the positive impact from rapid AI adoption that we also spoke to in the outlook.

So, far this year the S&P has made over 17 all-time highs, and we've also seen new highs made in Europe and Japan. We've upgraded our price targets for the developed markets, and we do think that any pullbacks that we get should be bought. So we'll dig into that more as well.

Well, and Grace, I think this is an area worth calling out, where we've seen maybe the biggest shift in investor behavior since we published that outlook. 2023 was a year in which our client base heavily favored fixed income and cash, but already we've really seen a rotation, and kind of an increase in that risk appetite for people to get involved in the stock market again.

Definitely. I've certainly experienced the equity conversation being really the one that has dominated many of my conversations with clients this year. The fourth thing is bonds. We advised locking in yield, and using fixed income for both income, but also protection. Yields have modestly increased since our outlook was published, but we still very much expect them to fall across the curve in the coming 12 months, as that interest rate cutting cycle gets started.

We see a good entry point for income, particularly looking to the front end of the curve, a good opportunity to lock in yields for several years at around 5.5% in dollar terms. And thinking about the portfolio context, adding duration we still think is a really good strategy to protect from any road bumps that we come across, any downside growth shocks.

Completing the five key takeaways, the last one was on credit and risks, where we said we expect pockets of distress, and we have seen signs emerging, but we continue to think that these will be contained, and therefore provide opportunity for those who can provide both financing and liquidity.

So that's the quick health check. And now I really would love to move to top questions that we got from the road to address what's top of your mind. And so we'll take the bulk of the call to go through some of those questions, concerns, share how we think about the context, and most importantly, the investment strategy around those issues.

So the first question, back to that key macro variable, is really on inflation, and clients often ask how hard will the last mile be. So, Tom I'm going to give that first tricky question over to you.

It's certainly the dominant risk, Grace. This is an environment where we really have never been in before. Inflation has fallen with a bigger magnitude than we've ever seen in history, unless you've seen a layoff cycle. So as we've known, in the last 12 months we haven't seen material layoffs, but inflation has come down. The most recent prints, you mentioned in the start here, the most recent inflation prints have been hotter than expected, higher than 2% inflation, but nonetheless we're still believers in the disinflationary process.

The COVID shock is behind us. I think that supply side of the goods market has normalized, but the supply side of the labor market, in the US in particular, has far exceeded our own expectations, meaning more supply has come back. And that has helped the labor market come back into balance, and help bring wages down. So, quite different than history.

So what's really changing in the supply of labor? Two things. One is domestically we're seeing folks come back to the labor force that really didn't participate before COVID. Prime age female participation rates, all-time highs. That can be attributed to a few things, but I think it's most notably work from home activity, which is likely to be persistent. A great LinkedIn study from last year, over 50-- no sorry, exactly 50% of all jobs filled on the LinkedIn portal were either hybrid or full work from home. That didn't exist just five years ago.

And then is also on immigration. This is a very polarized topic, but strictly for the economy and inflation, immigration supports lower inflation numbers. 2023, the CBO estimates that population grew by 1% from immigration. That's relevant because it hasn't happened in over 100 years. So an unbelievable stat, but helps to slow the inflation market. So we're still believers. Mostly because the labor market should support a continued slowdown in inflation just because wages come down.

Very interesting. So what I'm hearing is disinflation is still here. The path may not be linear when we differentiate between goods or services inflation. It's the services bit that's really been sticky. But this supply side improvements that we've seen are really something that have driven the disinflationary process, and that will certainly be things that we're watching.

I'd also just add that critically, inflation expectations feel anchored, which gives us confidence in the Fed's ability to cut rates. But I wanted to ask about productivity, because I think you've got cyclical as well as potential structural elements to productivity. How are you thinking that through, and what are we looking for in terms of evidence as to whether that turns into a dynamic worth watching?

Yeah, the differential growth and inflation. Historically, the higher growth goes, the more inflation goes up. But as labor supply comes to the market, you can have growth but inflation can still come down. Same with productivity. We haven't made material changes to our expectations for growth and productivity, but it's a key upside, particularly with artificial intelligence and what it might mean.

I mean we're going to have to talk about that, but feels like we're still in the early innings and it's hard to telegraph that. So to your point, upside risk to our growth numbers, and we can still feel confident that inflation can come back towards 2%.

Good. And I think it's really important to mention, as well, that when we look to JP Morgan's long term capital market assumptions, both immigration and productivity are factors driving upside risk to long term GDP forecasts, and certainly will feed into that market dynamic as well. Great.

The second question that we've heard from you all very consistently is geopolitics. Is the market complacent about the risk? And I think clients find this very difficult to handicap both the economic and the market impact. For my experience and conversations, I think there's two key concerns. The first is around tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Red Sea, bringing back bad memories around inflation, and the goods price inflation that we just spoke about having been an area that's actually been cooling, so far. And then the second piece of it is really just that the world feels different. That there are various hotspots that could flare up and cause risk off.

And when we're thinking through dynamics in the Middle East and the Red Sea, we do expect, as you've articulated around our inflation expectations, impacts to be small. Perhaps larger in Europe, because it's more of a goods-based economy, but it will take time before that ambiguity becomes clear. But I thought that I'd share anecdotally, in our recent meetings with CEOs from shipping companies, just drawing out how different the situation is now relative to the pandemic.

In the pandemic there were multiple shocks. We obviously had the China lockdown, consumer demand skyrocketing, as well. And now consumption and manufacturing are more smoothed. And so it feels certainly also like whilst rerouting is taking longer you've also got more shipping capacity coming on stream, which gives us some degree of comfort, that whilst the disruption in the Red Sea may last, we are not expecting it to work its way up the supply chain and dramatically impact inflation.

You made a critical distinction there. During COVID we had supply chains stopped. Here we're seeing rerouting, which can have delays and temporary or small impacts on inflation, but goods are still getting where they need to go. And the point about in the US, we've seen core inflation either-- deflationary prices going down, or near zero for about nine months now. This is a worry, but we're not seeing it evidenced yet, but the supply side of the economy is the place to watch for that.

Absolutely. To the second bit around global conflicts, data is pointed, if we look at historic data, to reasonably short-lived impacts from geopolitical flare ups. And certainly, for those of you who follow Michael Zimbalist, he's done some really, really good work that's worth checking out. But I wanted to touch on longer term inflation impacts, because I just referenced our long-term capital market assumptions, and the GDP forecasts, seeing modest uplift from immigration benefits, and also artificial intelligence.

But also when we think about longer term inflation impacts, mistrust around the world, some degree of uneconomic spending to facilitate some of these security issues, are one of the factors feeding into an assumption that longer term inflation could be slightly higher. So we reference that 2.5% earlier for the US. It's 2.2% for the Eurozone on core CPI metrics. We do think some of these factors play a longer term game.

And then the other thing to mention, whilst we don't have a crystal ball around how some of these things play out, is that we do very much see the CapEx spending that's going to come because of some of these issues as a very enduring investment theme. And so we're going to come back to that. I know what we think about energy security, supply chain security, and then, of course, physical defense, and cyber spending, as well. So more to come, as I say.

OK. The third topic is the US election. And this is obviously prompted a lot of conversations with clients. How much should we think about politics versus policy? Tom, take us through what history shows us.

Historically economics drive-- drive markets, drive economies, not really politics. And a simple way to draw that out is, in election years since the mid 50s, you've seen S&P 500 returns more or less the same as years that are non election years.

So that's interesting in itself, I think. And people find that an interesting stat, that whilst there might be some volatility through the year, actually the return is pretty similar. And the volatility point is true, but it's separating behaviors that we may feel about an election relative to what really drives the things we invest in. But your point about volatility is true, historically you do see volatility in the equity market pick up around Super Tuesday. That didn't really happen this go around, I think because we knew who the main candidates were, and then in the weeks and months leading up to an election. So that's really the only mathematical difference that you'll see. So I think it is easy for people to just say, I don't need to worry about this in my investing portfolio.

But I think clients still want to know, OK, maybe it's a reason not to invest. Or historically, that's been the case, but how should we position? How should we position ahead of the election? Even thinking below the surface, different sectors, different themes. And so we have a graph that we thought that we'd share with you that's on the screen at the moment. And it's a little bit cute, in some ways, but it's meant to articulate that really the common themes don't necessarily play out in politics and the market in the way that you would expect.

And it's back to that policy versus politics conversation. What you can see on the graph is a clean energy index versus a more traditional oil and fuels based index. And the natural assumption might be that during president Trump's period the policy stance would have supported traditional energy outperforming, but what you see from the graph is that actually wasn't the case. And then on the other side again, ditto during the Biden administration. His policy stance could have supported clean energy stocks, but in fact again the reverse is true, and by quite a wide margin.

And so this is really something that we thought was a way to demonstrate that ultimately policy and interest rates matter more. That's what's not shown on this chart is on the left, during the Trump administration, rates were about to go down late in his term as the Fed was realizing maybe rates were too high at that point. So the expectation for rate cuts supported clean energy, which is a longer duration product. And then the reverse, where during the Biden administration, rates were expected to go up and go up materially, so the shorter duration product outperformed.

So our sort of investment strategy advice is don't necessarily follow what might seem to be obvious trends. GDP continues to move up, the economy has continued to move up, and we don't see, whether it be short term or over the longer term, any reason that wouldn't hold this time. But there is something around investment choices and being a tax efficient that I think is worth talking about.

Yeah, I think that when you do try to-- there are places where politics and their politicians policies impact economies and markets. This go around, I think it's three things. Immigration, which we talked about is a potential for a new presidential or a new congressional regime to change that. Yeah, like the soft landing has been really supported by immigration.

Second would be on geopolitics, and particularly how America is engaging with China. And we're seeing the separation happen there, the decoupling if you will, but president Trump formerly favored tariffs, and president Biden seems to favor incentives to drive that decoupling forward. And then the last is on taxation. This is American-centric, but widely different tax policies here.

So, when tax environments are changing, or maybe even going to go higher, get tax efficient. Where I can think about municipal bonds, I can think about bank preferreds, or just more efficient ways to generate wealth for the long run.

Very good. OK, the fourth question, which I guess is a natural extension from the third, is also on US debt. And does a debt melt-down, or a debt-induced melt-down lie ahead? How are we addressing that with clients?

This is another one you have to be-- I think you have to be really sensitive to. Let me speak as a citizen, or as an American first, this worries me. It's not rational to think you could borrow into perpetuity, right? But as an investor I don't see any evidence that the market really cares just yet. How do I come to that conclusion? Well just, what's driving interest rates in a model or statistical terms. It's what the Fed does. And you could explain the vast majority of Treasury rate movements just from what the Fed does. So that's first point number one.

Second is that the Treasury auctions. They're increasing a lot of debt, or sorry, introducing a lot of debt to the market. But people are showing up to buy it, including folks outside the United States. Maybe ex China in the data that we can see. And then in the last one is that global trade in dollars is not wavering. It is the dominant currency to do trade and it's not changing. So I don't see any evidence that it's a worry today. But let's play it out.

When might the US deficit be a problem? And I'm showing a chart on the screen here for you, which is comparing the light blue line revenue as a percent of GDP, from the CBO projections over time. And the dark blue line is mandatory spending, think Social Security, Medicare, interest, and some other mandatory things. But as long as the mandatory spend is below your revenue, you can theoretically grow your way out of the deficit.

I see there's a cross on the on the chart there.

So this is taken from the CBO that in their forecast, which is incredibly hard to do, but they're saying in 10 years time these lines might cross. So this could be a catalyst, as we get close for the market to really force a politician to try to fix this issue.

So there's an element of we feel that the market's kicking the can down the road, but for clients who worry about this, because as you say that these are big numbers we're talking about. That seemingly are just growing month by month as things stand at the moment. What can clients do if they do want to think about hedging, or putting something in their portfolio, that mitigates some of this risk, even if it is a decade out?

Yeah, I think when we look at our-- you mentioned what we're seeing in our community prior, inside the community we focus a lot in dollars. And if you believe that this is a real risk, or it's before 2034, or however your framework is you need to diversify. And things that we're seeing clients do and we think makes sense diversification towards gold, or even diversifying your global equity exposure.

There are some fantastic names to want to own in Japan, or want to own in Europe, as just natural places where we don't see debt dynamics as challenged by the environment we see in America. Japan has its own challenges, I'm trying to acknowledge that, but at the same time see that there they've shown they can be sustainable with that debt.

Very good. Well you've given me a nice segue into the fifth and final question, which is when we get to leave some of the top down questions, and start to really dig into the equity markets, which, Elyse, we said earlier is really where a lot of our conversations have focused so far this year. But the question that keeps coming up with these more than 17 all-time highs that we've hit so far this year, is should I just wait to invest? How are you addressing that question with clients?

So I think the root of the pushback, like that initial knee jerk reaction really, is just purely because we are at all-time time highs. But that's why I love the chart that's on the left hand side of this page right here, because it's a really simple way of showing that in and of itself shouldn't dictate the way that you're thinking about potentially putting work, or money to work, in the equity market right now. Over shorter term time horizons, return differences aren't that meaningful between investing at all-time highs versus investing at any other time, and over longer time horizons, 1 or 2 years, you actually find that total returns investing at all-time highs are little bit better than investing at any other time.

That's kind of a backward-looking perspective though, so I think the important question we then have to focus on is, well, what's going to continue to propel this market forward? Because up to this point market leadership in the United States in particular has been really concentrated. But if you look at the chart on the middle of the page here, this kind of helps me justify that.

Because in 2023 you saw those Magnificent Seven companies grow earnings at a rate north of 30%, which really offset the earnings contraction that you saw in the remaining 493 names in the index. Looking forward, we do still think that those Magnificent Seven names, at least a cohort or a subset of them, will continue to kind of propel forward and generate earnings growth, but we also expect the rest of the index to start playing some catch up and potentially generate earnings growth in the high single digits.

This is so important to the equity story, isn't it? The fact that you're seeing it fundamentally driven by earnings growth for the Magnificent Seven. But the point that you make that rally will broaden out as other companies also start to recover from what has been a rolling earnings recession over the last couple of years is really, really important, because we fundamentally believe over the long term it's earnings growth that drives stocks.

Exactly. And I think this kind of helps dispel that fear that perhaps this run up we've seen in the market is something of a bubble, because it really is being driven by those real results. I think notably, going forward, you can't ignore this conversation around artificial intelligence. You have seen the results show up in very real ways amongst some of the enablers. So think the chip makers, or the Cloud service providers. But given what you see in the chart on the right side of this page, the expectation is that investment in things like artificial intelligence, that's going to continue, and it's going to broaden out throughout the economy.

So I think, as we think through what the next leg of that trade might look like, we should think beyond just those early stage kind of enablers and really start to consider some of the applications, and the impact that could have.

Very good. You're taking us into the final section, which is the things we're watching in future. I just want to stay with the equity market first of all, because I did mention in my opening words that we had actually upgraded our equity price targets this year, and that's not just a US phenomenon. Do you want to take us through some of the new numbers that we've put out for the S&P?

Sure. So base case we think the S&P 500 can end the year around 5250. That represents a few percentage points worth of upside from current levels, but I think there is a bull case to be made, particularly when you consider some of the growth dynamics that we're working through in the macro picture. Abroad I think the big picture theme is to still kind of remain focused on things like selectivity.

I know that the macro picture within Europe has been somewhat challenged but what we've found, as we've kind of dug into the details, is there are these exceptional multinational companies in Europe that in their own right might be considered Magnificent themselves. So don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, and I think approaching the stock market through the lens of themes, rather than just kind of distinct regions, has enabled a lot of investors to access opportunities in diversified ways.

Brilliant. And I just draw out as well the cash flow dynamics. Obviously upgrading earnings when you're starting with a business that already has a decent balance sheet, which is the case of many of the European multinationals, companies in Japan, and also much of the large cap, the S&P 500, all of that cash flow is starting to either go into CapEx. We've discussed some of the needs for CapEx, around AI and security already. Let's dig into that a little bit more. But CapEx dividends, and all of that, is also a really important hallmark of quality, I think and a driver of the market in future.

So we hope that's been helpful in drawing out some of the most commonly discussed issues, concerns, and opportunities. I want to focus on the opportunity point a little bit more and start to think forward. When we think about what we've learned through earnings season, what we're seeing play out in markets, Elyse, let's sort of dig more into artificial intelligence.

We said in the outlook that the hype was real. So now let's start seeing beyond the hype. How are we thinking about the AI value chain and where to go to next?

Certainly. So I think we're kind of moving beyond this phase where everyone's playing with AI, and you're really seeing the success in the stock market focused on those names that are either creating the components to enable it or kind of laying the groundwork for that infrastructure. So now what we're thinking through is the ecosystem in which AI can actually be applied to help companies either become more efficient, or develop new services, or potentially find ways to cut costs.

Already you've seen these different press releases come out that say, hey, we're using artificial intelligence to enhance our targeted marketing campaigns. Or we're using artificial intelligence to create an automated customer service live chat application that's saving us 700 potential headcounts, or even applications throughout health care. So I think the impact is going to become increasingly broad-based, and so we want to look beyond just kind of those initial winners and progressors within the AI revolution, and towards where that impact is going to be felt and amplified throughout the economy.

I'd love to draw out a couple of the points that you made, because I think linking that back we've used the terms AI and productivity a few times in this call, and Tom you made the point that it's tough to see in the top down data evidence of this, but I love, Elyse, least some of the examples that you gave that we are seeing this coming through from companies in their outlook statements, and their mentions, that I think is really important.

One of my favorite things to do is when we get into our community at JP Morgan, and be in front of a room, and save 100 clients, is to ask them who's using AI in their businesses today. Six months ago, 1 or 2 hands, and they're almost like shy to raise their hand. On a recent trip I was at about 25% of folks in the room raised their hand.

And I love the examples you're giving. Health care, businesses, startups, even some consumer discretionary names that you would never think would use this. It's broadening. It's happening quickly, it's not a tomorrow thing. This should see that enabler to execution or productivity get shorter. So we're on the lookout. And it's fascinating how quickly it's moving.

No, absolutely. The team are spending a lot of time thinking about that value chain. When we think about infrastructure where we've all mentioned quite a few times you've got to build the infrastructure, you've got to spend the money, spend the CapEx to build the infrastructure before future benefits flow. But I think when you think about that via data centers, semiconductors, semiconductor equipment makers, when you start to think about what does that mean for the size of the data center, the electricity usage, what that means for the grid, all of these are areas that we will dig into deeper but are all going to result in a sphere of winners and losers across various parts of the market.

So a fascinating topic, and again just bringing back the point to spend that CapEx, the balance sheet strength is a critical hallmark of quality and obviously with a management team that can deliver a return on that capital that you're investing.

I want to return to the geopolitics conversation and the link to security that we had earlier because I think this is another long run theme that we think is really, really interesting. What does it mean to be secure, Tom, and how are we seeing that manifest when it comes to investment opportunities?

Yeah. Being secure for us is the ability to weather storms, whether foreseen or unforeseen. COVID, geopolitics, exposed vulnerabilities for corporations, for sovereigns, across many insecurities. Whether that be supply chain, cyber, defense, energy, the list the list goes on. You made the point about ability to do CapEx, and having a balance sheet. Well, the US has responded with its ability to borrow with the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips Act. And this is pushing money into the US economy last year, and for years to come, mostly into infrastructure and industrials.

I think most of the time the narrative stops there, Grace, but this is a global theme. When you look to Europe, more than half of NATO countries are going to reach their 2% of GDP spend on defense this year. And if you put those European countries together, this would be the first time ever 2% of European GDP on a GDP weighted basis, 2% of spending will be on defense. So these are all folks that have strong balance sheets, the ability to do CapEx, and it's most likely to happen, one way or another. So I think this is an investable theme, and not for a year, not for two years, a multi-year strategic way to invest alongside a very strong balance sheet.

Very good. OK. So we're getting close to the time that I know that we have for today, but I want to end with a few quick hits. So we've covered quite a lot of investment opportunities across asset classes and regions, but let's just sort of hit on-- Tom, I'll come back to you first of all. What haven't we mentioned that you really want to get across to our audience today?

I think we have to talk about private credit. For one reason is we are optimistic on the space, and every headline I read is negative on the space. Private credit is a new phenomenon in financing. I do this because banks have been doing middle market lending for decades, but now it's moving to an asset manager. What's encouraging that is a new banking regulatory environment that wants banks to de-risk. But the lending will happen one way or another.

The media likes to push, Grace, that this is a bubble. You can't see asset growth happen like this. I think the definition of a bubble is when debt is growing in excess of profits or revenue, and when you look at the broad ecosystem of leveraged loans, high yield, and now private credit, the aggregate debt in that market is growing at the same rate as profits. So I don't see a bubble, what I really see is private credit taking market share away, and I think it's a durable theme. You can get low double digit yields in a middle market which is like a B-rated credit. So it's risky, but I think you're getting compensated for that risk. I think it's critical thing to think about can it fit in someone's portfolio. With yields that high, I think it can.

Very good. OK, and I might hit on another one, actually, which is just to go back to words that you've used as well, Elyse, infrastructure. Because when I'm thinking about client fears, clients do fear this notion that inflation will be higher, whether it's the 2.5% that we're sort of baking into our long term capital market assumptions, or whether it's a number higher still. And then we've spoken about geopolitics, we've spoken about AI, and infrastructure fits the bill on all of that front.

When we think about trillions of dollars of investment that are needed for traditional infrastructure, across rail, power, water, all of that is one part of infrastructure, but we also have these new challenges that we've spoken to around geopolitics, around climate, issues of national security, as well. And that brings new opportunities in these secular trends, across infrastructure, as well. So that to me is a really compelling opportunity that many clients have found interesting from a portfolio context to add that resilience to inflation.

Elyse, anything we haven't covered that you want to add?

I think I would just give a shout out to the need to really focus on planning this year. You alluded to some of the potential changes that might be coming down the pike with the elections, and so I think it's just a good reminder to think about your financial life, holistically, and beyond just that investment side of your balance sheet.

Excellent. Well, I think time's up now. Thank you to Elyse, thank you to Tom, for sharing your insights and for this lively conversation. And thank you to our listeners for your time today, and for your ongoing trust in JP Morgan. Don't forget to mark your calendar for our mid-year outlook in June. Plus do check out the insights page of our website for more information and ideas from the team. See you next time.

Thank you for joining us. Prior to making financial or investment decisions, you should speak with a qualified professional in your JP Morgan team. This concludes today's webcast. You may now disconnect.

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