Fourth-quarter forecast: 3 things that could affect markets

Stocks hit their 45th all-time high last week. Tech (+2.5%) was the dominant sector as artificial intelligence (AI) road shows displayed increased demand across the country.

In macro news, U.S. consumer prices rose slightly faster than expected in September. That put a pause on the recent inflation progress. There was a silver lining in the report, though. Shelter, which has proved to be the stickiest part of inflation, dropped the most month-over-month since October of last year.

The 2-year (3.99%) and 10-year (4.09%) rose +7 basis points (bps) and +12 bps on the week, respectively, and 30-year mortgage rates have shot back up to nearly 7%.

In commodities, oil continues to climb. It went up +1.7% last week to $79/barrel as risks of further conflict in the Middle East escalated. Gold retreated -1% from its all-time highs.

Zooming out, stocks have been hovering near the highs for three weeks. Are we due for a fourth-quarter rally? In the rest of today’s note, we explore historical seasonal trends and the events that might affect asset class returns in the final quarter of 2024. 

Spotlight

We are now two weeks into the fourth quarter. And so far, a solid economy has brought good returns year-to-date for global assets.

Can the rally continue? While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, seasonality says yes: The fourth quarter tends to provide a tailwind for markets. Seasonality in financial markets refers to patterns or trends that occur at specific times of the year, influencing the performance of various assets or sectors. These patterns can be driven by a range of factors, including economic cycles, investor behavior and cultural events. 

Historically, the fourth quarter has exhibited the best returns on average. Consumers spend more on retail during the holiday season, and the “Santa Claus” rally (where stocks tend to rise in the last week of December) and general optimism moving into the new year tend to benefit the calendar period. 

What’s more, when the first three quarters of the year post a positive return (as they did this year), the S&P 500 returns nearly 6% on average into year-end.

But how much should we rely on the averages this year? We think three global events have the potential to affect fourth-quarter asset returns.

1. Geopolitical tensions have escalated. Unfortunately, global armed conflict today stands at an 80-year high. Last week was a reminder of that, with the one-year anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas. Since then, geopolitical tensions have escalated further. Despite calls for restraint from global leaders, Israel is preparing for significant retaliation, potentially targeting Iran’s oil production and nuclear sites.

What we think: When geopolitical risks are elevated, it is important to distinguish between the very important human risks and the more nuanced investment implications. Seasonally, oil tends to have a negative price return in the in the fourth quarter, due to less demand, refinery maintenance, year-end inventory adjustments and other factors. However, since the start of the quarter, which aligns with increasing conflict in the region, oil prices have increased over 6%. Gold, which tends to produce positive returns in the fourth quarter, can act as a safe-haven asset. The precious metal has been hovering less than 2% from its all-time high.

As risks of a broader war in the Middle East continue to simmer, we think both oil and gold could hedge portfolios against geopolitical risk. 

The past month has been filled with stimulus packages and policy adjustments in China. From the initial round of stimulus announcements on September 24 to its recent peak, offshore equities returned over 20%, while the onshore index rallied over 26%. The initial rally, which took place over the last two weeks, was driven by a comprehensive combination of policies (mostly monetary and equity market stimulus) and expectations for more (particularly on the fiscal side). But the mood has dampened in recent sessions as markets were disappointed by the lack of further major initiatives.

Our take: We see the recent correction as a healthy adjustment after the market rally. Nonetheless, if further policy support exceeds market expectations, it could lead to another rally in onshore and offshore equities, as well as commodities (China accounted for 57% of world copper consumption in 2023).

3. The U.S. election. Election years tend to throw a wrench into typical U.S. equity seasonality. While non-election years have returned 3.5% in the fourth quarter on average since 1930, that drops to 1.7% in election years. However, even in election years, the fourth quarter is still the second best-performing quarter on average.

All market and economic data as of October 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

The information presented is not intended to be making value judgements on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.

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