locate an office

offices near you

office near you

Investment Strategy

Where does China’s recovery go from here?

Jun 29, 2023

Authors: Julia Wang, Timothy Fung, Yuxuan Tang, Weiheng Chen

Strategy Question: Where does China’s recovery go from here?

Since exiting strict Covid control policies, China’s economic re-opening has been quite mixed. While some areas, such as service sectors, have shown notable improvement, other areas have remained weak. Looking ahead to 2H2023, we anticipate fairly stable growth of around 4-4.5% year-over-year. While our growth assumption is below consensus, we expect a more sustainable recovery that is built on a broadening of growth drivers, rather than a narrow, stimulus-led recovery. Service sectors are over half of GDP and account for over 60% of employment, so they are key to a more sustainable recovery. While further incremental easing is likely, we expect policies to largely play a supportive role in the recovery, with a bigger focus on helping with medium to long-term growth transitions towards clean energy, domestic consumption, export diversification – and continued investment in innovation.

Why has the recovery slowed?

After an initial surge of pent-up demand in the first quarter of this year, growth eased in the second. Looking through the extreme base effect created by the Shanghai lockdown last year, compound annual growth rates point to a moderation in activities. There are a few reasons behind the slower growth trajectory, but the most important was the housing market stabilizing at low levels, rather than staging a V-shaped rebound. Given sluggish sales, investment and construction activities continue to be quite weak, impacting upstream as well as downstream industries such as materials and equipment, which are seeing a slowdown in new orders. On a related point, earlier in the year some analysts drew direct comparisons between China’s re-opening and those experienced by the developed world – and in turn reached optimistic conclusions on how much and how quickly excess savings in China could be unwound. In reality, most of the excess savings in China were due to less spending, rather than more income (due to the lack of transfer income), which means the drawdown has not been as rapid as observed in developed markets, and instead is declining more gradually. The second-round effects of the housing slowdown were underestimated by analysts and were therefore a major downside surprise for markets this year.

THE SAVINGS DRAWDOWN IS SLOWER IN CHINA

(LHS) Income and expenditure per capita; (RHS) Savings % of income

Sources: Wind. Data as of March 2023.

CHINA DID NOT SUBSIDIZE HOUSEHOLDS DURING THE PANDEMIC

Annual change in transfer payments received by households, relative to GDP

Sources: Ministry of Finance of China, National Bureau of Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Employment Agency, Office for National Statistics, Haver Analytics. Data as of December 2022.

 

Apart from the household sector, corporate sector balance sheets were also in repair mode. Over the last three years many companies ran into operational difficulties. This is particularly true in the service sectors – in areas such as leisure, hospitality and restaurants – although data is also more limited given many are small businesses. Corporate balance sheets are another key differentiating factor between China’s pandemic experience and that of developed markets. Across most of the developed markets, paycheck protections and less draconian mobility restrictions have meant that most businesses did not see much damage to their balance sheets. In fact, many businesses were able to reduce leverage and increase profitability as a result of fiscal and monetary stimulus. In China, the brunt of the lockdowns were shouldered by the corporate sector – with less fiscal or monetary support. So on the whole, Chinese businesses were in relatively more stressed conditions when the economy finally reopened, and business confidence is thus likely to take more time to recover. 

CHINESE CORPORATES ARE UNDER MORE STRESSED CONDITIONS

Number of companies with operating loss, year-over-year %

Sources: Wind. Data as of December 2022.

 

In the chart below we look at the manufacturing sector, as data is more limited on the services sector. Historically, profit growth tends to move together with business confidence and capex spending, so the current weak profit growth is likely a constraint on capex. 

WEAK PROFIT GROWTH IS A CONSTRAINT ON CAPEX IN CHINA

Year-over-year %

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics. Data as of May 2023.

What can drive the recovery from here?

Looking ahead, some of the above factors will likely continue to weigh on the Chinese recovery. But on the whole, after the recent slip, we expect the overall growth trajectory to be more stable in the second half of 2023. The organic recovery in domestic demand continues, and the main support will come from continued improvements in the labor market. Recently we have seen signs that labor demand is improving – as indicated by PMIs. The overall unemployment rate has also come off the peak. Many analysts have pointed out that the youth unemployment rate is reaching a new high – and we think the situation reflects several issues: 1) a generally slower economy, 2) the impact of regulation on the tech and education sectors, 3) a skills mismatch – the number of new graduates will reach 11 million this fall, which is double the amount a decade ago, which deepens the imbalance between demand and supply in this part of the market, and 4) further education opportunities, which lower the cost of temporary unemployment.

Some of these issues are fairly structural in nature, and can only be addressed over time through reform. As such, we may only see limited improvement in the youth employment situation in the near term. But it is important to put this in context. As of two years ago, the share of 16-24 year olds in the labor force already fell to around 10%. Since then, its share has likely further declined due to an aging population. So while youth unemployment is a serious policy challenge, it is less important from a cyclical perspective. As labor demand picks up, we could see a more gradual rebalancing in household incomes and savings rates. This is just beginning to develop, and there are signs that income expectations are bottoming out and saving rates have peaked.

The services sector recovery will likely hold the key to further improvement in the labor market. A few years ago the services sector overtook the manufacturing sector to become the biggest in the economy. On the consumption side, spending on services was growing faster and becoming a larger part of overall consumption every year. This was interrupted by the rolling lockdowns over the last few years, but the re-opening has rebooted the sector, driving a sharp rebound. We think it could return to, or even exceed pre-Covid level trend growth in the coming years. A recovery in services demand will likely lead to improving demand for workers, which creates a virtuous cycle for more sustainable growth. The services sector accounts for over 60% of all employment, and outside of the very wealthy segment of the market, consumption is more closely linked to job security as well as income growth.

SERVICES ACCOUNT FOR THE MAJORITY OF EMPLOYMENT IN CHINA

Employment by industry, %

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics. Data as of December 2018.

What can Chinese policymakers do?

While we expect more recovery ahead, our overall GDP growth assumption for 2023 is below consensus. We expect mostly an organic domestic demand recovery, with government policies largely playing a supportive role. After the recent series of small policy rate cuts, it is likely that further incremental monetary and fiscal support will be announced in the second half of this year. On the fiscal side, the focus will likely remain on investing for the energy transition, as well as infrastructure for an aging population. More policies to support housing sales are also possible, particularly at the local government level. Indeed, policy easing for the housing sector thus far has been quite limited – so there is room to do more. Home purchase restrictions remain quite prevalent, and were merely fine-tuned rather than relaxed in most cities. Down payments as well as mortgage rates remain quite high despite recent policy rate adjustments. In particular, mortgage rates on second homes (which constitute the bulk of buyers looking to upgrade) have not been adjusted. Some of these policies are at the discretion of local governments and may see some incremental loosening in the months ahead.

That said, recent policy actions indicate that the priority is to put a floor on growth and maintain financial stability rather than engineering a V-shaped recovery through stimulus. From this perspective, policymakers would want to avoid a downward spiral in confidence, and will do what is needed to stabilize growth. Beyond that, there is limited appetite to do more. From a short-term perspective, given the very low base from 2022, there is no heightened concern that growth is significantly under-shooting. From a longer-term perspective, there has also been a growing consensus that a property market-led economy creates a lot of imbalances, and that the economy needs to move to areas like clean energy, industrial upgrading and domestic demand. Given these considerations, policymakers will likely not want to err on the side of over-stimulating. At the local government level, the slowdown in land sales is a constraint that limits how much discretionary spending local governments can make to boost growth without relying on the central government. 

What is the path for future growth?

An organic domestic demand recovery implies a more moderate pace of growth. But it is also a more sustainable one as it is built on labor market improvement, which should broaden out. From our below-consensus 2023 GDP growth assumption, we expect the recovery to become more sustainable in 2024. In the medium to long term, China’s growth will likely need to transition to domestic demand. More stable expectations for house prices is one helpful factor, as is a better social safety net. The transition to clean energy will likely remain a big policy priority in the next few years. More investment is still needed to shift the energy sources used in electricity, transportation and energy storage. The increasing penetration of electric vehicles is one part of the strategy, but there is a need to broaden progress while ensuring energy security and resilience. Export diversification continues apace, but this is also impacted by global demand as well as geopolitical factors. Innovation is another key, and we expect continued policy support in an attempt to boost future productivity growth.

Investment implications

We think Chinese equities look increasingly attractive following the recent correction and across-the-board downgrades on China’s macro and equity forecasts. Our expectations for a continued recovery in 2024 also sets a stage for more equity market upside in 2H2023, as share prices usually run a few months ahead of the real economy. Fundamentally, earnings upward revision momentum remains strong and is still pointing up, which is traditionally a leading indicator for more earnings upgrades. Policymakers have moved in the direction of more market-friendly practices. Recall that Chinese equity markets are still highly policy-driven, and policy is becoming more pro-growth on the margin.

We believe we are at a sweet spot for Chinese equities – where valuations are compressed to below average levels, but earnings revisions are still up, and more policy support is expected to come. China could remain a trading market in the short-to-medium term, but we are likely at the low end of the range. We therefore see limited downside risk, with much improved risk-reward in the second half. On the thematic front, we like outbound traffic beneficiaries and reasonably-priced state-owned enterprises, which are trading at single digit P/E ratios and high dividend yields (with some at around 10%). Sector-wise, we prefer oversold consumer stocks and inexpensive large-cap internet stocks that will benefit from an expected organic consumption recovery.

We are constructive on both offshore and onshore China equities, with our MSCI China/ CSI300 June 2024 outlooks at 78-82/ 4700-4900 respectively. We are positive on the onshore market’s long-term growth potential from its structural bias towards consumption recovery, industrialization, as well as A-share financial market reform. On the other hand, the recently derated offshore market offers higher near-term upside as a short-term tactical trade.

On the currency front, the RMB has weakened rapidly since April. At current levels, the currency is more reasonably-valued and better aligned with fundamentals. We expect USD-CNH to hover around 7.1-7.2, with some small depreciation risks – for example if the market gets a hawkish USD surprise. For 2H 2023, we do not see major appreciation catalysts for the RMB, given the carry disadvantage. While we do not expect a policy bazooka (as mentioned above), rate cut expectations could be in the price if the recovery continues to stay lukewarm. The current account surplus could also face increased pressure as external demand declines and outbound tourism resumes. We encourage investors to hedge their RMB exposure, and believe that a weak RMB opens the door for use as a funding currency to leverage attractive borrowing costs and take advantage of opportunities elsewhere.

All market and economic data as of June 29, 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

For illustrative purposes only. Estimates, forecasts and comparisons are as of the dates stated in the material.

There can be no assurance that any or all of these professionals will remain with the firm or that past performance or success of any such professional serves as an indicator of the portfolio’s success.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

This document may also have been made available in a different language, at the recipient’s request, and for convenience only. Notwithstanding the provision of a convenience copy, the recipient re-confirms that he/she/they are fully conversant and has full comprehension of the English language. In the event of any inconsistency between such English language original and the translation, including without limitation in relation to the construction, meaning or interpretation thereof, the English language original shall prevail.

This information is provided for informational purposes only. We believe the information contained in this video to be reliable; however we do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of any information in this video. The views expressed herein are those of the speakers and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees, and are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this video is intended to constitute a representation that any product or strategy is suitable for you. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees to you. You should consult your independent professional advisors concerning accounting, legal or tax matters. Contact your J.P. Morgan team for additional information and guidance concerning your personal investment goals.

Indices are not investment products and may not be considered for investment.

For illustrative purposes only. This does not reflect the performance of any specific investment scenario and does not take into account various other factors which may impact actual performance.

These are presented for illustrative purposes only. Your actual portfolio will be constructed based upon investments for which you are eligible and based upon your personal investment requirements and circumstances. Consult your J.P. Morgan representative regarding the minimum asset size necessary to fully implement these allocations. 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Structured product involves derivatives. Do not invest in it unless you fully understand and are willing to assume the risks associated with it. The most common risks include, but are not limited to, risk of adverse or unanticipated market developments, issuer credit quality risk, risk of lack of uniform standard pricing, risk of adverse events involving any underlying reference obligations, risk of high volatility, risk of illiquidity/little to no secondary market, and conflicts of interest. Before investing in a structured product, investors should review the accompanying offering document, prospectus or prospectus supplement to understand the actual terms and key risks associated with the each individual structured product. Any payments on a structured product are subject to the credit risk of the issuer and/or guarantor. Investors may lose their entire investment, i.e., incur an unlimited loss. The risks listed above are not complete. For a more comprehensive list of the risks involved with this particular product, please speak to your J.P. Morgan representative. If you are in any doubt about the risks involved in the product, you may clarify with the intermediary or seek independent professional advice.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS 

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index. 
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative as they may vary over time based on market conditions. 
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies. 
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service. 
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

Contact us to discuss how we can help you experience the full possibility of your wealth.

Please tell us about yourself, and our team will contact you. 

*Required Fields

Contact us to discuss how we can help you experience the full possibility of your wealth.

Please tell us about yourself, and our team will contact you. 

Enter your First Name

> or < are not allowed

Only 40 characters allowed

Enter your Last Name

> or < are not allowed

Only 40 characters allowed

Select your country of residence

Enter valid street address

> or < are not allowed

Only 150 characters allowed

Enter your city

> or < are not allowed

Only 35 characters allowed

Select your state

> or < are not allowed

Enter your country code

Enter your country code

> or < are not allowed

Enter your phone number

Phone number must consist of 10 numbers

Please enter a valid phone number

> or < are not allowed

Only 15 characters allowed

Enter your phone number

Please enter a valid phone number

> or < are not allowed

Only 15 characters allowed

Tell Us More About You

0/1000

Only 1000 characters allowed

> or < are not allowed

Checkbox is not selected

Your Recent History

Important Information

Key Risks

This material is for information purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by private banking businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, are subject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations. If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing this material, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at accessibility.support@jpmorgan.com for assistance. Please read all Important Information.

GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS

Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

NON-RELIANCE

Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/ reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions

Your investments and potential conflicts of interest

Conflicts of interest will arise whenever JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates (together, “J.P. Morgan”) have an actual or perceived economic or other incentive in its management of our clients’ portfolios to act in a way that benefits J.P. Morgan. Conflicts will result, for example (to the extent the following activities are permitted in your account): (1) when J.P. Morgan invests in an investment product, such as a mutual fund, structured product, separately managed account or hedge fund issued or managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or an affiliate, such as J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.; (2) when a J.P. Morgan entity obtains services, including trade execution and trade clearing, from an affiliate; (3) when J.P. Morgan receives payment as a result of purchasing an investment product for a client’s account; or (4) when J.P. Morgan receives payment for providing services (including shareholder servicing, recordkeeping or custody) with respect to investment products purchased for a client’s portfolio. Other conflicts will result because of relationships that J.P. Morgan has with other clients or when J.P. Morgan acts for its own account.

Investment strategies are selected from both J.P. Morgan and third-party asset managers and are subject to a review process by our manager research teams. From this pool of strategies, our portfolio construction teams select those strategies we believe fit our asset allocation goals and forward-looking views in order to meet the portfolio's investment objective.

As a general matter, we prefer J.P. Morgan managed strategies. We expect the proportion of J.P. Morgan managed strategies will be high (in fact, up to 100 percent) in strategies such as, for example, cash and high-quality fixed income, subject to applicable law and any account-specific considerations.

While our internally managed strategies generally align well with our forward-looking views, and we are familiar with the investment processes as well as the risk and compliance philosophy of the firm, it is important to note that J.P. Morgan receives more overall fees when internally managed strategies are included. We offer the option of choosing to exclude J.P. Morgan managed strategies (other than cash and liquidity products) in certain portfolios.

The Six Circles Funds are U.S.-registered mutual funds managed by J.P. Morgan and sub-advised by third parties. Although considered internally managed strategies, JPMC does not retain a fee for fund management or other fund services.

Legal entity, brand & regulatory information

In the United States, bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively “JPMCB”) offer investment products, which may include bank managed investment accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPM. Products not available in all states.

In Germany, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE, with its registered office at  Taunustor 1 (TaunusTurm), 60310 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB). In Luxembourg, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE – Luxembourg Branch, with registered office at European Bank and Business Centre, 6 route de Treves, L-2633, Senningerberg, Luxembourg, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Luxembourg Branch is also supervised by the Commission de Surveillance du    Secteur Financier (CSSF); registered under R.C.S Luxembourg B255938. In the United Kingdom, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE – London Branch, registered office  at 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – London Branch is also supervised by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. In Spain, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE, Sucursal en España, with registered office at Paseo de la Castellana, 31, 28046 Madrid, Spain, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE, Sucursal en España is also supervised by the Spanish Securities Market Commission (CNMV); registered with Bank of Spain as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 1567. In Italy, this material is distributed by  J.P. Morgan SE – Milan Branch, with its registered office at Via Cordusio, n.3, Milan 20123,  Italy, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Milan Branch is also supervised by Bank  of Italy and the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB); registered with Bank of Italy as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 8076; Milan Chamber of Commerce Registered Number: REA MI 2536325. In the Netherlands, this material is distributed by  J.P. Morgan SE – Amsterdam Branch, with registered office at World Trade Centre, Tower B, Strawinskylaan 1135, 1077 XX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Amsterdam Branch is also supervised by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and the Autoriteit Financiële Markten (AFM) in the Netherlands. Registered with the Kamer van Koophandel as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under registration number 72610220. In Denmark, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Copenhagen Branch, filial af J.P. Morgan SE, Tyskland, with registered office at Kalvebod Brygge 39-41, 1560 København V, Denmark, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Copenhagen Branch, filial af J.P. Morgan SE, Tyskland is also supervised by Finanstilsynet (Danish FSA) and is registered with Finanstilsynet as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 29010. In Sweden, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Stockholm Bankfilial, with registered office at Hamngatan 15, Stockholm, 11147, Sweden, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Stockholm Bankfilial is also supervised by Finansinspektionen (Swedish FSA); registered with Finansinspektionen as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE. In Belgium, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Brussels Branch with registered office at 35 Boulevard du Régent, 1000, Brussels, Belgium, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB);  J.P. Morgan SE Brussels Branch is also supervised by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) and the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA) in Belgium; registered with the NBB under registration number 0715.622.844. In Greece, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Athens Branch, with its registered office at 3 Haritos Street, Athens, 10675, Greece, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE – Athens Branch is also supervised by Bank of Greece; registered with Bank of Greece as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 124; Athens Chamber of Commerce Registered Number 158683760001; VAT Number 99676577. In France, this material is distributed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Paris Branch, registered office at 14,Place Vendome, Paris 75001, France, registered at the Registry of the Commercial Court of Paris under number 712 041 334 and licensed by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR) and supervised by the ACPR and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. In Switzerland, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, with registered address at rue du Rhône, 35, 1204, Geneva, Switzerland, which is authorised and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) as a bank and a securities dealer in Switzerland.

This communication is an advertisement for the purposes of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MIFID II) and the Swiss Financial Services Act (FINSA). Investors should not subscribe for or purchase any financial instruments referred to in this advertisement except on the basis of information contained in any applicable legal documentation, which is or shall be made available in the relevant jurisdictions (as required).

In Hong Kong, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Hong Kong branch. JPMCB, Hong Kong branch is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, we will cease to use your personal data for our marketing purposes without charge if you so request. In Singapore, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Singapore branch. JPMCB, Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Dealing and advisory services and discretionary investment management services are provided to you by JPMCB, Hong Kong/Singapore branch (as notified to you). Banking and custody services are provided to you by JPMCB Singapore Branch. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong, Singapore or any other jurisdictions. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to this document. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. For materials which constitute product advertisement under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisers Act, this advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., a national banking association chartered under the laws of the United States, and as a body corporate, its shareholder’s liability is limited.

With respect to countries in Latin America, the distribution of this material may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. We may offer and/or sell to you securities or other financial instruments which may not be registered under, and are not the subject of a public offering under, the securities or other financial regulatory laws of your home country. Such securities or instruments are offered and/or sold to you on a private basis only. Any communication by us to you regarding such securities or instruments, including without limitation the delivery of a prospectus, term sheet or other offering document, is not intended by us as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or instruments in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or a solicitation is unlawful. Furthermore, such securities or instruments may be subject to certain regulatory and/or contractual restrictions on subsequent transfer by you, and you are solely responsible for ascertaining and complying with such restrictions. To the extent this content makes reference to a fund, the Fund may not be publicly offered in any Latin American country, without previous registration of such fund´s securities in compliance with the laws of the corresponding jurisdiction.

References to “J.P. Morgan” are to JPM, its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. “J.P. Morgan Private Bank” is the brand name for the private banking business conducted by JPM. This material is intended for your personal use and should not be circulated to or used by any other person, or duplicated for non-personal use, without our permission. If you have any questions or no longer wish to receive these communications, please contact your J.P. Morgan team.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCBNA) (ABN 43 074 112 011/AFS Licence No: 238367) is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Material provided by JPMCBNA in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Please inform us if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

JPMS is a registered foreign company (overseas) (ARBN 109293610) incorporated in Delaware, U.S.A. Under Australian financial services licensing requirements, carrying on a financial services business in Australia requires a financial service provider, such as J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL), unless an exemption applies. JPMS is exempt from the requirement to hold an AFSL under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Act) in respect of financial services it provides to you, and is regulated by the SEC, FINRA and CFTC under US laws, which differ from Australian laws. Material provided by JPMS in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. The information provided in this material is not intended to be, and must not be, distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons in Australia. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Act. Please inform us immediately if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

This material has not been prepared specifically for Australian investors. It:

  • may contain references to dollar amounts which are not Australian dollars;
  • may contain financial information which is not prepared in accordance with Australian law or practices;
  • may not address risks associated with investment in foreign currency denominated investments; and
  • does not address Australian tax issues.

© $$YEAR JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

LEARN MORE About Our Firm and Investment Professionals Through FINRA Brokercheck

To learn more about J.P. Morgan’s investment business, including our accounts, products and services, as well as our relationship with you, please review our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Form CRS and Guide to Investment Services and Brokerage Products

 

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively "JPMCB") offer investment products, which may include bank-managed accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states. Please read the Legal Disclaimer in conjunction with these pages.

 

INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

Bank deposit products, such as checking, savings and bank lending and related services are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Not a commitment to lend. All extensions of credit are subject to credit approval.