State of the Union: How are things progressing?

There has been no shortage of milestones moments in 2024—but markets have kept rolling.

This week of pageantry was no different, even while the news deluge touched all corners of the economy, markets, and politics.

Top Market Takeaways gives our state on the union on three themes that are top of mind for investors.

1) Trump vs. Biden, round 2: What does it mean for markets?

Super Tuesday wasn’t super surprising: Donald Trump and Joe Biden look well on their way to securing their party’s nominations. As their campaigns take shape and November draws closer, investors are narrowing in on where the two candidates stand on key issues. We believe the economy is firmly in the driver’s seat when it comes to markets—a point we dug into in our recent piece Dispelling Election Myths—but policy proposals on hot button areas could impact related sectors and even shift expectations for growth and inflation down the line. Here’s a quick look, based on what we know so far:

Defense, Energy, & Healthcare:

• Defense: Trump would likely increase defense spending and push NATO members to follow suit. We would expect the same for Biden, but with an emphasis on alliances and multilateralism. With that said, global spending on security is still lacking amid a more tenuous geopolitical backdrop—and that’s starting to change. NATO expects 18 of its 31 members to meet its 2% defense spending targets in 2024, up from just 11 in 2023 and just three 10 years ago. Given broad focus on national security, defense stocks could benefit under either a Trump or Biden administration.
• Energy: Each candidate—and party—takes very a different approach to climate policy. With a Trump victory, increased production of fossil fuels and targeted de-regulation could benefit some companies, but the resulting pickup in energy supply could lead to lower prices. In all, the impact on traditional energy stocks might not be as broadly beneficial as some think: Expect nuance across the energy supply chain. Under a Biden victory, assets linked to renewable sources are likely to find more support (e.g., the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act contained many provisions aimed at encouraging the transition to clean energy).
• Healthcare: Trump intends to finally undo the Affordable Care Act (he tried to replace it in 2017, but failed), while Biden plans to both protect and build upon it. Healthcare stocks may respond better to a Biden victory, but we think it’s notable that nearly 60% of the public views the Affordable Care act favorably.¹ That could limit either candidate’s ability to make substantial changes.

Taxes, Tariffs, & Regulation:

• Taxes: Some of the provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of (TCJA) are set to expire come 2025, possibly resetting tax rates to higher 2017 levels. Trump has stated an intention to make all individual provisions of the TCJA permanent, which could sacrifice tax revenue at a time of rising federal deficits. Meanwhile, Biden wishes to extend many of the individual provisions for those with incomes below $400,000. Under either scenario, the future state of U.S. taxes will likely be higher over the longer-term, especially considering the U.S. government’s growing debt stockpile. Investors may want to consider tax-smart investments and revisit estate and gift tax exemptions.

• Tariffs: Trade-related policy creates impacts that ripple across countries, sectors, and companies. Being tough on trade has been a key tenet of Trump’s roadshow rhetoric. The former president has proposed tariffs on imports broadly as a method to increase domestic production (a potential for a 10% tariff on all imported goods and a 60% tariff on imported goods from China). President Biden has shown more flexibility, but will also likely continue to re-evaluate existing tariffs—many of which remain from the Trump administration. 

• Regulation: To regulate or not to regulate, that is the question. Trump favors deregulation, particularly for energy and financial services, while Biden has called for increased regulation for not only those sectors but also technology. Reducing regulatory burdens could bolster profitability, particularly across tech, healthcare, and banks. On the other hand, a rise in antitrust cases could diminish innovation, and judging from cases in motion, tech could be most at risk. So while we still expect select tech names to produce solid returns over the course of the next year, diversifying equity exposure across sectors, styles and regions can help to insulate equity portfolios across a wide range of outcomes.

Finally, it’s also important to note that not all policy initiatives go through. High-impact proposals seem more likely to be adopted only if one party controls the White House and Congress, and even then, policymakers are often confronted with challenges and bottlenecks. Seven months is a long time in politics, and we’ll be evaluating our views as we learn more.

2) Is the economy too hot?

Strong data of late has some investors questioning the true temperature of the economy—and what that means for potential Fed rate cuts this year.

This week’s data (so far) seems to assuage some fears. The quits rate (which is highly correlated with wage growth) and job openings both held steady on the month. Later, the closely-watched nonfarm payrolls report showed both strong job gains and decelerating wage growth in February. Revisions also showed that January’s numbers weren’t as scorching as previously thought. In all, healthy, but not overheating.

Fed Chair Powell’s chat with Congress also seemed to take a reasonable tone. In his biannual congressional testimonies, Powell stuck to the recent Fedspeak script of acknowledging both the progress made and still needed ahead. Stating “it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” he also caveated that we won’t see a move until the committee has “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Read: The Fed seems acutely aware that cutting rates too soon risks easing financial conditions too much, potentially keeping inflation above 2% or even worse, reaccelerating.

Putting it all together: While some of the data to start the year has felt a bit hot, we see it more as speed bumps along the economy’s broader cooling trend. From here, we think the swift rebalancing we’ve seen in the labor market (largely thanks to an uptick in supply from foreign born and female workers) will keep disinflation progress intact. That means that even as cuts may feel less urgent thanks to a strong economy, we still think they are coming this year. The 75bps now expected by both the markets and the Fed feels reasonable. 

3) Is credit stress actually contained?

This week brought another litmus test for commercial real estate. The beleaguered New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) impressively raised $1 billion in new equity to help to shore up investor confidence. In case you missed it, the regional bank has come under pressure this year, losing three-quarters of its value year-to-date after slashing its dividend, increasing its loan loss provisions, and receiving a junk rating by rating agencies.

In all, this week’s action reminds us that pockets of distress remain in the commercial real estate market. That said, NYCB seems to be in a league of its own, and based on our read, it doesn’t seem to be metastasizing to other regional banks or the broader economy. We also don’t believe that other banks who are overexposed to commercial real estate pose a systematic issue, even as they may continue to face pressure.

Still, we advocate approaching direct regional bank exposure across any asset class with caution, or avoiding it entirely. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t compelling opportunities in the broader financials sector—we maintain a favorable outlook on preferred equities issued by large, high quality banks as a means of picking up yield and finding relative value. And, as much as credit stress is a risk, it’s also an opportunity, especially for active managers focused on areas of distress and skilled in navigating credit cycles.

While there may be plenty to consider on the road ahead, making a plan is the most important step in the end. Your J.P. Morgan advisor is here to think through your portfolio for this year and beyond.

¹KFF Health Tracking Poll: The Public’s Views on the ACA. Published: Feb 21, 2024.

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