Investment Strategy
5 minutes
Today the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, announced a pre-election Budget that sought to turn the tide on Labour’s commanding lead in the polls by presenting a package of ‘tax cuts’, alongside the cancellation of the UK Resident, non-domicile regime and the introduction of a new residence-based test for new arrivers from April 2025.
2p cut to National Insurance
The Chancellor’s main headline was a cut of 2p to employees’ National Insurance, from 10% to 8% from 6 April 2024. Alongside this, the main rate of self-employed National Insurance will be cut from 9% to 6%, with the stated objective of ‘rewarding work’1.
This belies the fact as noted by Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute of Fiscal Studies that “come the election, tax revenues will be 3.9% of national income, or around £100 billion, higher than at the time of the last election. This remains a parliament of record tax rises2.” This is primarily the result of the effect of so-called ‘fiscal drag’ - the freezing of the thresholds at which individuals pay basic, higher and the additional rate of tax in the UK, plus the significant increase to the rate of Corporation Tax from 19% to 25%.
That being said, the Government argues (and the IFS agrees3) that in 2024-25, the median full-time employee will pay less tax as a share of their earnings than they did in 2010-11 by 4.6ppts.4
Cancellation of the non-dom regime from April 2025
In cancelling the non-dom regime and remittance basis, the Chancellor attempted to steal a march on one of Labour’s key pre-election policy commitments, albeit whilst claiming that credit should go to the Conservative Chancellor Nigel Lawson for having the idea way back in 1984.
The Labour Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves had said she would introduce a new regime ‘fit for the modern world’ and the Chancellor today said that he is - from April 2025 (if the Conservatives remain in power) - introducing a regime that is ‘modern, simpler and fairer’ with the removal of the ‘outdated’ concept of domicile.5
New Arrivals to the UK
Existing non-domiciled individuals – transitional provisions
Non-UK Trusts
Inheritance Tax (IHT)6
While the cancellation to the UK RND regime and the subsequent replacement with a “modern” regime based on residency was well documented in the notes to the Budget, the Chancellor provided less information regarding any changes to IHT. Government guidance currently indicates an intention to move to a residence-based system, subject to consultation and applying only from 6 April 2025.
Personally Held Assets
It is envisaged under the consultation that worldwide assets held in an individual’s personal name, post 6 April 2025, will be subject to UK IHT, once a person has been resident in the UK for 10 years (“the residence criteria”). This comes with a provision that the person will be in scope for UK IHT for 10 years after leaving the UK (“the tail provision”).
The taxation of UK situs assets, at present, will remain unchanged.
Trusts
It is anticipated that the current IHT treatment will continue for any non-UK property that is settled by a non-domiciled settlor, into trust, prior to 6 April 2025. Whereas new trusts and additions to existing trusts will be subject to the new residence-based rules after this date.
For non-UK situs assets settled pre 6 April 2025 (or date of Deemed Domicile if earlier), subject to any future changes or anti-avoidance provisions will:
The exception to this is that the treatment of non-UK property comprised in a settlement that currently comes back into scope where the settlor is a formerly domiciled resident will be subject to consultation.
Initial observations
It is worth bearing in mind that there will be an election in 2024 before the Conservative Government is due to cancel the non-dom regime and introduce the new residence-based test.
If Labour win the election, it remains to be seen whether they will adopt the Conservative proposals in full, amend them or scrap them altogether. Labour have not yet provided any detailed commentary on the Conservative’s proposal.
The government has made several changes to the property tax system, claiming this makes it “fairer and more efficient”7. They have abolished the Furnished Holiday Lettings tax regime from 6 April 2025, with the goal of levelling the playing field between short-term and long-term lets and to encourage locals to live in their local area.
In a surprise move, from 6 April 2024, the Chancellor has reduced the higher rate of Capital Gains tax on residential property from 28% to 24%, claiming that the Treasury and the OBR have determined that this would encourage more residential disposals. The lower rate will remain at 18% for any gains which fall within an individual’s basic rate band. Principle Private Residence Relief (PRR) will remain in place, meaning this tax should only apply to individuals disposing of properties which are not their main home. Hunt has claimed that the Treasury and the OBR agree that the government will raise more money by reducing the higher rate of property CGT. Quipping that both the Treasury and the OBR have discovered “their inner Laffer curve”8.
Finally, he announced that on 1 June 2024 Multiple Dwellings Relief (MDR) would be abolished, (a bulk purchase relief in the Stamp Duty Land Tax regime). There will be transitional rules meaning that MDR can still be claimed for contracts which are exchanged on or before 6 March 2024, regardless of when completion takes place. This will be subject to some exclusions, the key one being that any variations to existing contracts will not count.
In addition to the measures announced above, from 6 April 2024, the Government will restrict the scope of Agricultural Property Relief and Woodlands Relief to property located in the UK. Property located in the European Economic Area (EEA), the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man will be treated the same as other property located outside the UK.
A new UK ISA will be introduced with its own allowance of £5,000 per annum, this is in addition to the current ISA allowance. The government will consult on the details at a later date. In addition, the government has announced the launch of “British Savings Bonds” which will be delivered via National Savings and Investments and will launch in April 2024. This product will offer a guaranteed interest rate, fixed for three years.
Other policies at a glance
Use what you’ve got
More investment. More jobs. Better public services. Lower taxes. That was the punchline of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget earlier today. Here are some of the details:
The Office for Budget Responsibility laid out a more optimistic outlook for the UK economy today. With inflation expected to fall back to target levels sooner than expected, they also suggested that growth would rebound from last year’s technical recession at a faster pace than previously anticipated. Hunt stated that GDP is now expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024 (vs. 0.7% prior) and 1.9% in 2025 (vs. 1.4% prior).
Over the longer-term though, the OBR left its outlook for potential GDP growth unchanged at 1.7%.
Incentivising people back into the workforce was a feature of several policies to boost potential growth in the long run, though. The cumulative impact of national insurance cuts today and at the Autumn Budget is expected to bring around 200,000 additional workers into the labour force (around 20% of current vacancies), according to the Chancellor. Not only that, but Hunt also expects the increase in child support to add a further 60,000 parents to the working population in the next four years9.
Similarly, productivity is essential for driving long-term growth and living standards. The public sector productivity programme rolled out today looks to address that head on (starting with the NHS), and policies to attract investors and business to the UK (many of which we discussed in the previous section) were highlighted as the most effective way to raise productivity.
But how can the government afford these policy changes? The Conservatives didn’t have much room to work for tax cuts or spending increases coming into the Budget, and they have come with even less of it. By opting for national insurance cuts over income tax cuts and pulling back on spending elsewhere, the tax revenue generated by the likes of abolishing the non-dom scheme (worth £2.7bn) and extending windfall taxes (worth £1.5bn) were ultimately enough to keep the government within its fiscal constraints. When all was said and done though, the £8.9 billion buffer that was left to achieve the government’s key fiscal rule (to have debt falling as a share of GDP over five years) is just a third of the post-financial crisis average. And with the risks to OBR projections appearing skewed towards lower growth and higher interest rates (more below), that could paint a difficult picture for whichever party is at the helm at the time of the next fiscal event.
As we stand today, our views err on the side of caution relative to the OBR. While the economy has held better than most had anticipated, there has been next-to-no growth over the past two years and we don’t expect to see a sharp rebound this year either. Why? We think the Bank of England will likely keep policy restrictive for some time. Although headline inflation in expected to fall below the 2% target in the near future, progress on central bankers’ favourite indicators of underlying inflation (labour market and services inflation) has been slower to take hold in the UK. The potential for later cuts means that shorter-dated UK bonds look to be a more tactical opportunity for investors today, while the pound might benefit should the BoE prove to be a late cutter relative to its peers. The market didn’t give us much to go off in the aftermath of the Budget, though.
Over the longer term, the UK government’s focus on boosting potential GDP growth for the long run is promising. Policy measures aimed at increasing the size and productivity of the labour force and efforts to attract more investment might make the UK equity market more attractive in the coming years. Domestic stocks look reasonably priced today and tend to offer a higher dividend than in other regions, but we prefer to be selective rather than buying the broader UK market until we see certain cyclical factors turning in the country’s favour.
All forward-looking statistics are sourced from the Spring Budget 2024 speech delivered by the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on March 6, 2024.
1https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/spring-budget-2024-speech
2https://ifs.org.uk/articles/spring-budget-2024-initial-ifs-response
3https://ifs.org.uk/articles/spring-budget-2024-initial-ifs-response
4https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2024-personal-tax-factsheet/spring-budget-2024-personal-tax-factsheet
5https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/spring-budget-2024-speech
6https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-the-taxation-of-non-uk-domiciled-individuals/technical-note-changes-to-the-taxation-of-non-uk-domiciled-individuals#:~:text=It%20is%20envisaged%20that%20the,the%20%E2%80%9Ctail%E2%80%9D%20provision).
7https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65e8578eb559930011ade2cb/E03057752_HMT_Spring_Budget_Mar_24_Web_Accessible__2_.pdf
8https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/mar/06/spring-budget-2024-jeremy-hunt-tax-cuts-conservatives-labour-uk-politics-latest-updates?page=with:block-65e86e558f083527345344dd
9https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/spring-budget-2024-speech
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