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The next chapter of the tariff saga

  Key takeaways:

  • All in a week, President Trump backtracked on 50% EU tariffs, faced a court striking down several tariffs, upheld them through appeal, and announced doubling steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% starting 4 June.
  • We believe the US economy can withstand the current higher tariff rates without entering a recession, while potentially lower rates from court rulings would offer an added boost to the macro & market outlook.
  • In uncertain times, focus on what you know and own; diversification is key, and areas of conviction can offer opportunities through the noise.

Last week began with President Trump backtracking on the 50% EU tariffs he announced days earlier. But the real drama unfolded when a US court struck down several of Trump's tariffs, including the sweeping Liberation Day levies on all its trading partners. Yet, a swift appeal kept them in place as the case unfolds. Then, in a bold finale, Trump announced on Friday that he is doubling steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% from 25%, starting 4 June.

Despite the uncertainty, the S&P 500 posted its largest monthly gain in 18 months and its best May since 1990, fuelled by the US-China détente easing global downturn fears—though recent rhetoric suggests tensions remain high. Meanwhile, US Treasuries struggled, with yields rising—especially for longer-dated maturities—due to Moody's downgrade of US government debt and the 'One Big Beautiful' tax bill, sparking renewed debt sustainability concerns.

With so much shifting, it can be hard to keep track. Here's our latest take on the unfolding trade drama, focusing on how we're navigating the uncertainty in portfolios.

Unpacking the US court drama

Trump enacted a slew of his tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), allowing him to regulate international commerce by declaring a national emergency for 'unusual and extraordinary' threats. Using this channel bypasses Congress's usual role in taxes and tariffs.

These IEEPA-based tariffs included April's 'Liberation Day' measures, like the sweeping 10% universal tariff and country-specific reciprocal levies, plus earlier tariffs targeting Canada, China, and Mexico over fentanyl and border security concerns.

Multiple court challenges led to last week's US Court of International Trade ruling, where a three-judge panel—appointed by Reagan, Obama, and Trump himself—found the administration's use of the IEEPA exceeded its bounds, ordering the targeted tariffs to be halted within 10 days.

The administration quickly appealed, claiming the decision undermined its control over foreign affairs and trade, securing a temporary hold to keep tariffs active as the case proceeds, with arguments set for 9 June.

In limbo things stand

The IEEPA-related tariffs remain in effect for now, but the initial ruling highlights their lack of Congressional codification, leaving their future uncertain.

Meanwhile, tariffs under other legal frameworks remain untouched, including those on China from Trump's first term, continued by Biden under 'Section 301.' It also doesn’t affect recent global tariffs on aluminium, steel, and autos/auto parts under 'Section 232.' Of note, the aluminium and steel tariffs are set to double later this week.

Taking stock: Where US tariffs stand

Sources: U.S. Congress, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management. Figures as of 2 June 2025. IEEPA refers to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
If the court's decision were implemented, we estimate the US average effective tariff rate on all its trading partners could significantly decrease from around 12-13% today (excluding the upcoming steel and aluminium increase) to 5-7%.

The US tariff rate sits at post-WWII highs

U.S. effective tariff rate, %

Sources: Haver Analytics, Daily Treasury Statement, Tax Foundation, JPM Global Economics, GS Global Investment Research, JPMAM, Michael Cembalest. Data as of 29 May 2025. Note: This does not account for the recently announced doubling of steel and aluminium tariffs, expected to come into effect on 4 June. IEEPA refers to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

What’s next: many paths, one goal

It’s worth bearing in mind that tariffs are central to the administration's economic strategy. Before the court ruling, we expected the US average effective tariff rate to settle around 15%, driven by a mix of dealmaking, supply chain shifts, and potential new tariffs on the likes of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, and copper, pending ongoing Section 232 investigations.

Even if higher courts uphold the lower court’s ruling, the administration will likely explore other legal avenues to impose tariffs beyond the IEEPA, drawing on other legal frameworks for country-specific or sector-specific tariffs. Though these options are complex and resource-intensive, they remain viable.

Meanwhile, ongoing trade negotiations may stall as partners delay concessions if they believe US tariffs are likely to be overturned or adjusted. In turn, the administration might look to pull other levers, such as NATO funding, military support, or export rules on critical technology.

Our view: still cautiously optimistic

Lower tariff rates would offer a boost for the economic and market outlook. Nonetheless, we’re optimistic that the US economy can handle both reduced rates and our higher estimates without tipping into a recession. While higher tariffs are expected to slow imports and boost inventories, businesses and consumers remain on stable footing and are already adapting around ongoing uncertainty.

That sentiment was mirrored in last week’s market moves: a positive response to the initial court ruling and a more subdued reaction to the appellate court's decision. It seems like investors are becoming fatigued by the tariff saga, with tariffs now just one of many factors influencing market dynamics, rather than the central focus they were a month ago.

That keeps us cautiously optimistic on the broader outlook.

Taking action: focus on what you know and own

Diversification has been central to nearly all of our client conversations. With trade uncertainty, fiscal concerns, and a weakening dollar constantly shifting, many investors are questioning how much they should allocate to the US—and the best way to do so.

Adding to the complexity, the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' has given non-US investors much to consider. At over 1,000 pages, the details matter. Section 899 has drawn particular attention, potentially granting Trump the authority to impose additional taxes on some income from US assets. This aims to counter countries with 'unfair' taxes on US entities, such as Digital Services Taxes.

While the Bill awaits Senate approval—and Section 899 details are still sparse—it adds another layer of uncertainty for international investors heavily weighted in US assets. To be clear, we still anticipate solid returns from US markets over the next year, but with growing risks, exploring opportunities in other markets like Europe and Japan, and adding assets like gold that may offer uncorrelated returns and volatility mitigation, seems prudent.

When investing in the US, uncertainty can be a catalyst to concentrate on areas where conviction is strongest. For one, AI remains a powerful force, and an impressive week for big tech flew under the radar of the tariff drama. Nvidia, the second-largest company in the S&P 500, managed to brush off US export restrictions on its AI chips to China, delivering an eye-popping 69% revenue growth in Q1 compared to last year—well above expectations, while also confirming strong future demand.

This tech strength also showed up in the revised US Q1 GDP numbers. Despite a 0.2% annualised decline—due to a surge in imports ahead of Trump's tariffs and some moderation in consumer spending—investment in computers and information processing equipment contributed 1.01 percentage points to GDP. That’s a historic record.

Many of the world’s leading AI innovators are US-based companies.

The AI boom delivered a record contribution for the US economy

Information processing equipment, contribution to change in real US GDP, %

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of March 31, 2025.
Bottom line: know what you own and focus on what you know. For insights on the latest market dynamics and their impact on your portfolio, get in touch with your J.P. Morgan team.

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All market and economic data as of June 2025 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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