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Investment Strategy

U.S.-China tariff truce: What investors need to know

  Key takeaways:

  • The U.S.-China trade truce offers some respite but fails to address fundamental issues that could resurface.
  • A fragmented U.S. trade strategy indicates that future negotiations will likely be complex and prolonged.
  • While the U.S. economy and stock markets show resilience, the potential impact of tariffs could intensify, even with recent deals in mind.
  • To help defend against market volatility and build more resilient portfolios, we believe it’s worth considering geographic diversification and currency hedging.

A cooldown in U.S.-China trade tensions sparked a market rally on Monday.

Following last week’s muted moves, the S&P 500 surged 3% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed nearly 4%. The S&P 500 has now fully recovered its losses since “Liberation Day” on April 2. Offshore shares in China rallied by a similar magnitude, and the U.S. dollar had its best day since Election Day, with its cross against the euro falling to 1.11. U.S. Treasury yields rose as markets priced out some Federal Reserve (Fed) easing for the year.

This rally signals renewed hope for easing trade tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners. Here, we dive into the latest U.S.-China trade announcement, assess whether recent developments indicate a genuine thaw or continued decoupling, and explore implications for investors.

U.S.-China trade truce: a temporary respite

On Monday, the U.S. and China announced a temporary 90-day reduction in tariffs on each other's products. The U.S. will lower its additional levies—that is, the extra tit-for-tat tariffs post-“Liberation Day”—from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce its extra duties from 125% to 10%. While this move effectively undoes recent retaliatory tariffs, it leaves Trump 2.0’s initial “fentanyl tariffs” and Trump 1.0’s Phase One trade deal measures intact. That leaves the current U.S. tariff rate on China at about 50% and China’s rate on the U.S. at around 30%. The total average U.S. effective tariff rate on all trading partners now stands at around 15% overall.

This development is particularly welcome for U.S. small businesses facing high price pressures and eases export pressures for China, which has already been re-routing supply chains.

A key aspect of the announcement is the establishment of a mechanism for ongoing discussions, reminiscent of the arrangement between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Vice Premier Liu He during the first Trump administration, which led to the Phase One trade agreement.

But while this news is all positive, the current agreement is still just a pause, and specifics of a comprehensive deal remain unclear.

Future progress will likely be phased, starting with measures on fentanyl. U.S. officials will closely scrutinize China’s adherence to the Phase One agreement, demanding increased purchases of U.S. goods. Potentially contentious points include U.S. agricultural products, energy commodities, and strategic sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, where the U.S. seeks to limit China's technological advancements. Future negotiations will also likely tackle non-tariff barriers, including intellectual property rights, forced technology transfers, and market access for U.S. companies in China.

Trust between the two countries remains low, making future deals, especially on structural issues, challenging and time-consuming. The U.S. administration's mixed hawkish and dovish approaches suggest that future policy towards China will likely remain fragmented.

Broader U.S. trade deals: recent progress and ongoing pressure points

The recent U.S.-China agreement is the second major trade deal secured by U.S. officials, following a pact with the United Kingdom last Friday. In that deal, the U.K. agreed to lower auto tariffs to 10% and eliminate metals duties, while the U.S. reduced duties on British steel, aluminum, and autos.

While this signals promising dealmaking, its immediate impact is modest—reducing the U.S. effective tariff rate by just 10 basis points. Looking ahead, Trump's team is said to be eyeing negotiations with around 20 key trading partners, but challenges remain. EU trade talks are stalled, with value-added tax (VAT) a notable complexity, Japan has demanded full tariff removal, and negotiations with South Korea and Vietnam are expected to be complex and lengthy.

Such efforts are closely tied to U.S. domestic strategies. President Trump plans to use executive powers to cut U.S. prescription drug costs by linking government payments to lower prices abroad, potentially reducing costs by 30% to 80%. This announcement has already impacted pharmaceutical stocks, with major drugmakers like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk tumbling on Monday.

U.S. trade strategy: dealmaking or decoupling?

The current trajectory appears to favor negotiation and resolution, with recent progress marking a significant de-escalation in tensions. Yet, the ultimate goals of trade policy, particularly between the U.S. and China, remain unclear, and the timeline for reaching mutually acceptable agreements is uncertain.

Our base case suggests that the effective tariff rate on U.S. goods globally will likely settle between 10-20%. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has indicated that the U.S. will not agree to any deals below the 10% baseline tariff. Adding to the complexity, several major lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of Trump’s tariffs are underway, with hearings scheduled for today, May 13, before a panel of judges appointed by presidents Trump, Obama, and Reagan.

A favorable ruling for the plaintiffs could boost market optimism, but any decision against Trump’s tariffs is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court. Historically, courts have granted administrations leeway in matters of national security, under which Trump’s emergency tariffs fall.

Resilience in the economy and markets: perception versus reality

The U.S. economy and stock market have defied the challenges of uncertainty.

The S&P 500 has erased all losses since the April 2 "Liberation Day" trade shock. This resilience has been mirrored in recent macroeconomic data: China's GDP surged in Q1, and U.S. household and business spending posted solid gains, despite a slight GDP dip due to an influx of pre-tariff imports. However, this strong start may reflect preemptive moves to prepare for tariffs, with demand front-loaded and borrowed from future spending.

For instance, U.S. ship imports increased throughout Q1, leading to a 60% rise in Treasury collections of customs and excise taxes in April compared to March. Similarly, capital expenditure expectations for the S&P 500 have been climbing since September, even as CEO sentiment has hit its lowest point since 2011. The key takeaway is that while hard data remains strong amid uncertainty, it may not stay immune—tariff effects are likely to become more pronounced in the coming months, despite recent trade deal progress. 

This situation has kept the Federal Reserve in a wait-and-see mode, balancing risks against a strong economic baseline. The economy continues to grow steadily, the labor market shows no immediate distress, and inflation is only slightly above the Fed's target. However, "soft" data like sentiment and business surveys have significantly deteriorated, underscoring the tension between perception and reality.

On balance, we expect growth to soften in the months ahead—not collapse.

Navigating uncertainty with purpose

While trade tensions may linger in limbo, investors don’t have to. While the ultimate outcome is uncertain—bulls believe the worst is over, while bears caution about worsening momentum—it’s crucial to focus on facts and stay aligned with your overarching investment goals. We see timely opportunities today to position for a changing landscape, even as growth faces pressure in the months ahead. Building portfolio resilience through strategic planning and adaptability is essential.

Amid a shifting world order, diversifying across regions and currencies is vital. While favoring U.S. assets and positioning for dollar strength has been successful in recent years—U.S. stocks have outperformed the rest of the world by +2x since 2010—it’s increasingly important to explore geographic diversification and consider hedging currency exposure. This year's performance underscores this. The MSCI World Index, encompassing large and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets, has posted a flat return year-to-date. Yet excluding the U.S. (and not hedging currency) dramatically boosts that return to over 10%. That contrast highlights the potential benefits of looking beyond U.S. borders for investment opportunities.

We expect continued volatility as trade negotiations unfold and their impacts become evident in hard data. The summer will see the end of tariff delays, as well as ongoing U.S. budget and debt discussions.

Through it all, staying informed and adaptable is key to navigating uncertainty. Connect with your J.P. Morgan team to explore what this could mean for you.

 

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  • The S&P 500 measures the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market and economy.
  • The MSCI World Index is a global equity index that represents large and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets countries. It includes over 1,500 constituents and covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. It is designed to offer a broad view of the global equity market, excluding emerging markets.
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The U.S.-China trade truce offers welcome respite, but it's not a cure-all; elevated uncertainty persists. Investors should be prepared and get proactive.
Published May 13, 2025

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