Investment Strategy
5 minutes
Chancellor Rachel Reeves yesterday delivered the first Labour Budget for 14 years, and the first for a female Chancellor, to the House of Commons. The Budget arrived after months of warnings that it would – in the words of the Prime Minister – be ‘painful’, made up of “difficult decisions” in relation to spending, taxation and the calculation of the nation’s debt. The months of uncertainty and speculation are over; the UK now has a clearer path forward.
Certain measures which had been rumoured in the build-up to the Budget were confirmed, such as the increase to Employer National Insurance and the increase to Capital Gains Tax (CGT). Others were not, such as the announcement that the Income Tax and Employee National Insurance thresholds will rise in line with inflation from April 2028. In addition, the Chancellor also provided detail around the cancellation of the UK Resident Non-Domiciled Regime and the new UK Residence based regime.
The key points are summarised below:
Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed that the proposed cancellation of the UK RND regime (announced by the Conservatives at the Spring Statement) would proceed, and a new technical note combined with draft legislation was released containing more detail on the proposals to come into effect from 6th April 2025.
These proposed rules are summarised below. A fuller briefing will be released by us containing the detail of both the technical note and the draft legislation.
At a glance, Labour have confirmed that:
o 2025/26 – 12%
o 2026/27 – 12%
o 2027/28 – 15%
o For individuals resident between 10 and 13 years, they will remain in scope for 3 years following an exit from the UK;
o This then increases by one tax year for each additional year of residence, so 15 out of 20 would be in scope for 5 years and if resident for 17 out of 20 would be in scope for 7 years;
o For long term residents, they will be in scope for 10 years after leaving the UK.
It should be noted that some concessions to the taxation of overseas trusts for IHT purposes have been announced, which should relate to trusts established before 30th October 2024. More detail on these concessions will be contained in our more detailed note.
In addition, Rachel Reeves announced changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT). Despite speculation in the media that there could be fundamental reforms to IHT, there were instead more measured changes to existing reliefs, which appear to be designed to achieve the policy objective of bringing forward the point at which businesses and agricultural land are inherited by the next generation.
Contrary to popular pre-budget speculation, the Autumn Budget has not aligned CGT rates with Income Tax rates. There have however been some changes to both the headline rates of CGT and the taxation of Carried Interest received by fund management executives.
Capital Gains Tax
For both higher rate taxpayers and trustees, from 30th October 2024 the rate of CGT that will apply to gains realised on the disposal of assets, other than residential property and Carried Interest, will be increased from 20% to 24%.4
Furthermore, from 6 April 2025 the rate of CGT applying to the disposal of shares in trading businesses that qualify for Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) and/or Investors’ Relief will increase from 10% to 14%. The applicable rate will further increase to 18% from 6th April 2026. The rate of CGT applying on gains realised on the disposal of residential property will remain unchanged from 24%.
The government have confirmed that anti-forestalling rules will be introduced to limit the efficacy of unconditional but uncompleted contracts entered into before 30th October 2024. Where these provisions apply any gain realised on disposal will be subject to the new rates of CGT. These provisions may also apply where an election is made to disapply the share reorganisation provisions for the purposes of claiming BADR or Investors’ Relief.
Carried Interest
The Autumn Budget has not fundamentally reformed the taxation of Carried Interest, with legislation being introduced to increase the rate of CGT that applies to distributions realised from 6th April 2025 from 18%/28% to 32%.
It is important to note that from 6th April 2026 further reforms will apply with Carried Interest distributions being taxed fully within the Income Tax framework and treated as trading profits subject to Income Tax and class 4 National Insurance Contributions. The amount of ‘Qualifying’ Carried Interest subject to tax will be adjusted by applying a 72.5% multiplier.2 Further detail will be provided in due course by the Government on the definition of ‘Qualifying’ Carried Interest.
The Income Based Carried Interest (IBCI) rules will be amended to remove the exclusion for employment-related securities and will therefore apply to distributions received by both partners and employees.
A summary of the existing Carried Interest provisions can be found here - https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/eur/en/insights/wealth-planning/the-future-of-tax-in-the-uk-carried-interest
It had been anticipated that the Chancellor would make changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) on the purchase of residential property for non-UK residents5. While a rate increase of 1% was reported in the government’s manifesto, it was announced today that Higher Rates for Additional Dwellings on SDLT on the purchases of second homes, buy-to-let residential properties, and companies purchasing residential property will increase by 2% to 5% from 31st October 20242.
This surcharge is also paid by non-UK residents purchasing additional property. Non-UK residents also pay the non-resident’s SDLT surcharge of 2%. This will mean a non-resident individual buying an additional UK property will pay 19% on the value of property over £1.5m.
The single rate of SDLT that is charged on the purchase of dwellings costing more than £500,000 by corporate bodies will also be increased by 2 percentage points from 15% to 17%.2
Markets couldn’t make their mind up on what they thought about the Budget. The initial response was a positive one. Gilts held their gains from earlier in the day. The pound rose as much as 1% against the dollar to move back above 1.30. The domestically-oriented FTSE 250 index rallied close to 2%. And AIM stocks (typically smaller and higher growth in nature) were up as much as 4%. But by the end of the day, most of those moves had reversed.
Initial optimism suggested a job-well-done by the Chancellor. The market took comfort from the Labour government’s commitment to its fiscal responsibility and boost growth. Spending had been increased by a huge £60-70bn, but that was taken well as it had been funded by both significant tax increases as well as changes to the government’s measure of debt under its fiscal rules (to account for the value of assets that they invest in).
That narrative soon-changed after the Office for Budget Responsibility (the UK’s fiscal watchdog) released its economic report when proceedings had concluded at the House of Commons. Although they acknowledged the potential near-term boost to growth from increased spending, it was the inflationary impact that was the focus. The OBR shifted its estimates for interest rates higher across the forecast horizon. They now anticipate a more gradual pace of Bank of England policy easing and higher Gilt yields relative to the forecast back in March.
In our view, this assessment seems fair. The rise in the minimum wage and higher employer national insurance contributions will likely increase wage pressures, and in turn keep services inflation elevated for longer. It seems like the Bank of England will still press ahead with another 25 basis point cut next week, but this move towards increased government spending could slow their roll on lowering rates in 2025.
However, for all the talk of large-scale stimulus, the amount of expansion actually flowing through to the economy appears to be far more muted. In fact, taken in its entirety, fiscal policy will be a modest headwind to economic growth over the coming five year forecast horizon. Reflecting this underlying reality, the OBR only modestly increasing its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 2.0%, but lowered each of its 2026, 2027 and 2028 forecasts. For that reason, the market’s repricing of the UK curve seems to be a little overdone. Bond markets have priced in the terminal Bank rate (i.e. the level at which rates bottom out this cycle) towards 4%, considerably higher than the likes of Europe and the United States. We therefore think that the UK Gilt market may present an opportunity for investors – particularly for UK taxpayers. The potential for a more gradual pace of cuts from the Bank of England relative to the rest of the world could also keep the pound well supported after its impressive run so far this year.
While markets will likely focus on the near-term policy impact of increased spending, we do see reason to be more optimistic over a medium-term horizon. An increased focus on encouraging investment in infrastructure, innovation and other productivity enhancements is an important initiative for this Labour government. There was a clear tilt towards supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to drive growth through initiatives like the long-term modern industrial strategy. Harnessing innovation and growth within key sectors through private investment is something that we do expect to get the UK back on a path towards higher growth over a longer-term horizon.
Despite Keir Starmer setting the stage for a challenging Budget, overall it appears that Rachel Reeves was able to mitigate some of the more “painful”6 measures that had been initially planned. The announced increases to CGT and Carried Interest ultimately were lower than had previously been anticipated and the headline rate of CGT is still among the lowest globally; in addition the publication of draft legislation for the new UK Residence Based Regime for new arrivals provides some welcome clarity for many. It is being reported that the majority of the increases in the tax take are being funded via the increase to Employer’s National Insurance and the confirmation of the Temporary Repatriation Facility being offered to formerly UK Resident Non-Domiciled Individuals rather than a broader sweep of tax changes affecting working people.
1 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/autumn-budget-2024-speech
2 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672105124da1c0d41942a8a8/Reforming_the_taxation_of_non-UK_individuals.pdf
3 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/agricultural-property-relief-and-business-property-relief-reforms/summary-of-reforms-to-agricultural-property-relief-and-business-property-relief
4 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/agricultural-property-relief-and-business-property-relief-reforms/summary-of-reforms-to-agricultural-property-relief-and-business-property-relief
5 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-the-rates-of-capital-gains-tax/1cf25453-5b0c-4e7b-9165-65cf117e0af0
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