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Investment Strategy

Risky business: How tariffs, debt, and dollar dynamics impact your portfolio

Markets are facing turbulent times.

Last week, investors fled stocks for bonds as fresh tariff announcements dominated headlines, angst about the economy grew, government debt worries resurfaced, and an unconventional strategy known as the 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' to weaken the U.S. dollar and lower borrowing costs also dampened spirits.

As the first quarter wraps up today, U.S. stocks are poised for their first negative quarter since Q3 2023. International markets also felt the pressure, but even as the Stoxx Europe 600 fell -1.4% on the week, it extended its outperformance over the S&P 500 to nine consecutive weeks, the longest streak since 1999.

Here's a deeper dive into the three risks in headlines from last week, ranked by our assessment of their likelihood and impact.

1. Tariff turmoil: How high will the stakes rise?

Tariff discussions remain clouded with uncertainty. Last week, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all auto imports, effective April 3rd, with plans to extend it to auto parts by May 3rd. As 'Liberation Day' approaches this Wednesday, April 2nd, more announcements are anticipated, especially regarding 'reciprocal' measures. A Wall Street Journal article over the weekend added to the speculation, suggesting that global tariffs of up to 20% could be imposed on nearly all U.S. trading partners.

While the market anticipates higher tariffs, the extent and impact remain unclear, with estimates for the U.S. effective tariff rate varying by over 10 percentage points—an unprecedented range in post-war America.

Estimates for where tariffs will land are wide

JPM Economics estimates for potential U.S. effective tariff rate, %

Sources: Michael Cembalest, “Eye on the Market,” Tax Foundation, GS Global Investment Research, J.P. Morgan Global Economics. Data as of March 28, 2025. Note: current assumes increases of 20% on China, 25% on Mexico & Canada non-USMCA, 25% on steel & aluminum.

With a wide range of potential outcomes, the administration's goals for tougher trade policies are equally broad, including addressing trade deficits, boosting revenue, ensuring fairness for U.S. businesses, safeguarding national security supply chains, and securing borders. Crafting a comprehensive strategy to achieve these objectives quickly is challenging; during the narrower 2018-19 trade war, it took 326 days to implement tariffs on Chinese imports.

The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has investors on edge, with mounting concerns about the economic impact. The higher the tariffs, the greater the potential hit to growth. For example, U.S. consumer confidence fell to a four-year low in March, largely due to trade policy uncertainty. Our Investment Bank estimates that impact of the proposed tariffs varies by type, ranging from -0.1% to -0.7%. The U.S. might also feel the impact more acutely than the rest of the world, as tariff threats have expanded beyond earlier targets like China and specific sectors. By engaging in global trade wars, the U.S. risks losing its size advantage.

The impact to growth varies by tariff type

Growth impact by tariff type, U.S. versus Rest of World (RoW), %

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics. Data as of March 7, 2025.

However, there's a silver lining: 'hard' economic data—reflecting actual output—continues to outperform 'soft' data like consumer sentiment, which focuses on expectations and ‘vibes.’ Last week’s Q4 U.S. GDP report showed the economy grew at a solid 2.4% annualized pace. While growth might slow, the economy entered the year on solid footing. In Europe, existing and proposed auto tariffs might not drastically alter the trajectory, but the specifics of reciprocal tariffs, especially ad valorem taxes (VAT), will be crucial.

For investors, diversification offers some relief from uncertainty. For instance, gold has outperformed most other asset classes during the 13 days dominated by tariff news this year. European equities and U.S. investment-grade bonds have also been strong contenders.

‘Tariff event’ days have seen varied performance

Average price change across 13 ‘tariff event’ days in 2025, %

Sources: PIIE, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of March 31, 2025. Note: indices used include XAU Curncy; SX5E Index; LBUSTRUU Index; MXWOU Index; JHYRHYI Index; SPX Index; DXY Index. Days included: February 1st, 4th, 5th, 10th, 13th, 21st, 25th, and March 1st, 4th, 6th, 12th, 25th, 26th. Note that those days include both tariff increase and reduction announcements.

2. Debt dilemmas: Can governments spend without breaking the bank?

Everyone has bills to pay, and governments worldwide are juggling spending needs against growing debt.

The U.S. hit its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling in 2023, and it was suspended until the end of last year. Now, the Treasury's "extraordinary measures" to keep the government afloat are running out. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned last week that these measures could be exhausted by August, the so-called X-date, risking default if Congress doesn't act. Fortunately, this isn't the first debt drama we've faced—the ceiling has been raised or suspended every time since 1917. While recent market events remind us to "never say never," we expect an agreement before the default date is breached.

The bigger concern is the long-term budget outlook. The CBO forecasts rising deficits and debt, driven by increasing interest costs, with U.S. public debt potentially reaching 156% of GDP by 2055—a stark rise from 100% today. The risk is that managing this debt could eventually overwhelm the economy. However, absent meaningful market warnings, a fiscal breakdown isn't an immediate threat. However, the UK's 2022 mini-budget crisis serves as a reminder of the consequences of fiscal fragility. To that end, last week's UK Spring Budget highlighted ongoing challenges, with the government opting for spending cuts amid weak growth and high interest rates.

The multitrillion-dollar debt debate

United States public debt-to-GDP level, 2000 – 2034, %

Sources: CBO, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Axios. Note: Federal debt held by the public. Data as of Jan. 2025.
On the other hand, Germany's recent historic stimulus plan shows how fiscal restraint can create opportunities. Although its debt brake has been contentious, it has provided the 'room' needed to stimulate growth and address security challenges. However, the speed and composition of spending are crucial, and other European countries face higher debt burdens. Any bloc-wide measures would require political unity.

3. A Mar-a-Lago accord: Could Trump shake up the dollar?

Amidst all the tariff talk, some investors are revisiting an earlier proposal from a top Trump official to reshape the global financial system. Headlines have ventured that the so-called 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' could hint at the administration's future direction.1 The plan centers on encouraging—or pressuring—America's trading partners to accept a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury rates, with the goal of reducing borrowing costs and boosting manufacturing investment.

Why target the dollar? It's been strong for a while, which makes imports cheaper for U.S. consumers but pressures exports by making them more expensive for international buyers. That conflicts with the administration's goals of balancing trade and revitalizing domestic manufacturing.

The proposal includes two main ideas:

  • Countries would swap their short-term U.S. Treasury securities for much longer-dated 100-year 'century' bonds. Non-compliance could lead to tariffs and loss of U.S. security protections.
  • A "user fee" would be imposed on reserve assets held by other countries, potentially increasing if the U.S. dollar doesn't weaken enough.

Is it possible? While the dollar's overvaluation is a challenge, these proposals carry significant risks. They could undermine the dollar's status as a global reserve currency and lead to higher long-term interest rates, counter to the administration's goals. Moreover, it's unlikely that other countries would agree to weaken the dollar as they did in the 1980s. In our view, this makes the accord unlikely.

Navigating uncertainty: Diversification can be your best defense

In times of high policy uncertainty, sticking to your long-term plan and leveraging your full investment toolkit—using equities for growth and fixed income as a portfolio ballast—can be powerful. A global perspective, across regions and sectors, helps mitigate risks from various potential scenarios. Investors can also enhance portfolio resilience by incorporating alternative assets like gold and infrastructure, which can offer income and diversification. In all, a well-rounded approach can soften the blow of market downturns and keep you aligned with your long-term goals.

For personalized guidance on optimizing your portfolio, please contact your J.P. Morgan team.

 

1 The proposal's name references the 1985 "Plaza Accord," where France, Japan, West Germany, and the UK joined forces with the U.S. to devalue the dollar. Replacing the Plaza Hotel in New York (owned by Trump from 1988 to 1995) with Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Florida as the venue for a potential new deal adds an nostalgic twist to the proposal’s name.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS


All market and economic data as of March 2025 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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