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U.S. election recap: What could GOP policies mean for investors?

Market Update

Back to the future.

Donald Trump has been elected President again. TV networks called the race at around 5:30 eastern standard time and the AP called the race shortly after. A win in Wisconsin put him over the 270 electoral college vote threshold.

The market is responding how we would have expected in the event of a Republican sweep – US large cap stocks, small cap stocks, and bond yields are all sharply higher.

The S&P 500 is up another +2.2% on top of Tuesday’s +1.1% gain. Gains are being led by financials, with the banks sub-sector up more than +10% in Wednesday trading alone.

Small Cap stocks are up over +5% to one-year highs. The VIX index (a measure of implied volatility) is collapsing ~5pts because the election outcome became clear so quickly. On the other hand, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is down around -2.5% from the previous day’s highs, and European stocks pared their initial gains throughout the day to end -1.5% lower. 

Bond markets are reacting strongly to the move. 10 year yields are up 16 bps to 4.43%. The yield curve is steepening. 2 year yields are “only” higher by 8bps. The dollar is going from strength to strength.

Elsewhere, gold is down -2.8% below $2700/ounce, as is oil. Bitcoin is trading at all time highs and has gained 10% over the last two days.

The key takeaway from the price action is that markets are more focused on the pro-growth policies rather than the risks of tariffs or increasing deficits. Bond yields are higher, but so is the dollar, and risk markets are performing exceptionally well. Sectors who are exposed to regulatory risk like small cap banks are also performing well. If deficit concerns were the focus, the dollar and stocks would be weakening as bond yields rise.

Your election recap

President Trump is on track to win every swing state. Republicans have won control of the Senate, while the House of Representatives is still officially a toss up, markets seem to think Republicans will win a slight majority. There are still 60 seats outstanding in the House and it could take several days to a week to declare winners in all of the outstanding races.

Even if Republicans do end up winning the House, it seems like their margins will still be slim. That means that negotiation and compromise will still be necessary for major policy proposals. Here is an updated look at the key issues.

On taxes: While there is still a long way to go in Tax Cuts and Jobs Act extension negotiations, it seems like the “worst-case” market outcomes have been avoided (e.g. higher taxes on capital gains, QDI treatment, and tax exemption of municipal bond income). That said, a full extension of the TCJA may not be palatable to members of Congress who are worried about the deficit. The provisions of the TCJA won’t expire until the end of 2025, so we wouldn’t expect decisions to be made until the back half of next year.

If fully extended, personal tax rates will stay at current levels outlined in the chart below:

On trade: President Trump has proposed an increase on tariffs to 60% on all Chinese goods and up to 10% on all other imports. While higher tariffs on China seem likely, the broad tariffs on all trading partners face much higher legal hurdles. The dollar is strengthening this morning as markets perceive that tariffs will extend “U.S. exceptionalism”.

On immigration: The President does garner relatively more power when it comes to immigration policy. President Trump has proposed much stricter immigration measures and an effort to deport asylum seekers. We should expect for immigration to slow at an increased pace. Though it is notable that during Trump’s previous presidency he called for the deportation of 11 million immigrants, which only resulted in about 300k deportations per year from 2017 to 2020.

On the deficit: We said that regardless of the candidate elected, deficits will likely increase. As Michael Cembalest pointed out in his paper, Mind the Gap, President Trump’ policies as proposed would increase the deficit by ~4 trillion. As previously stated, tight margins in the House and Senate will provide a buffer against this type of deficit expansion. That said, the move in bond yields suggests looser fiscal policy, better growth prospects, a higher landing place for the Fed, and higher inflation. 

What we think:

  • More positive:
    • U.S. equities versus rest of the world. We would add cyclicality through tech, industrials and financials.
    • Gold and real assets (infrastructure, real estate, etc.)
    • U.S. dollar
  • Neutral:
    • Despite the backup in rates, we would stay neutral duration.
  • Less positive:
    • U.S. healthcare, staples and energy (given a less positive view on oil prices)
What we think: Now that a candidate is confirmed markets can do their job as a forward looking machine. Volatility tends to fall relatively quickly after the new composition of government is confirmed, and on average, equities are higher 12 months after the election.
Said differently, don’t let an election derail your plans—election outcomes don’t drive market returns over the long run. After all they happen every four years, and since 1950, there have been 18 presidential elections and 10 transitions in the White House between Democrats and Republicans. Over those 74 years, U.S. GDP growth has averaged a 3.2% annual pace, and the S&P 500 has compounded at 9.4% per year.

 

All market and economic data as of November 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

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With a Republican victory confirmed, we discuss what might be coming over the next term.
Published Nov 6, 2024

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  • The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
  • The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.
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