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Investment Strategy

Barbie or Oppenheimer—what’s on the market’s big screen?

Jul 28, 2023

Some parts of the economy may be giving Oppenheimer vibes but stocks are rallying like it’s a Barbie world.

Our Top Market Takeaways for July 28, 2023.

Market update

Team Barbie or Team Oppenheimer?
 

The great Barbenheimer debate is rife, and the economy and markets are weighing in. Today, we explore this week’s news flow and offer our thoughts on which side it takes.

1. On the Federal Reserve: Despite hiking to levels unseen in 22 years, stocks are having a party in Barbieland.

After over a year of tightening and a “skip” in June, the Fed may be drawing the curtain on its rate hikes. On Wednesday, the Fed hiked 25 basis points to a target policy rate of 5.25–5.50%. Just as expected.

The Fed isn’t taking a victory lap on its fight against inflation just yet, but with a lot of progress so far (at the same time the economy has stayed on solid footing), we think it’s probably the last hike of the cycle (or close to it). It could also be the start of the end of an era—the European Central Bank signaled it could be wrapping up hikes this week, and the Bank of Japan surprised by widening its yield curve control policy overnight.

Whether the Fed ultimately gets a reputation for achieving a soft landing or spurring a mild recession, stocks have moved on from the debate. After a rough 2022 as the Fed got going, the S&P 500 is now up some 20% this year and is less than 5% off of last January’s record highs. It’s also likely not a huge coincidence that the market bottomed around the same time the Fed delivered its final monster 75-basis-point hike (marking a slower pace from there).

 

Stocks seem to have moved on from rate hikes

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of July 26, 2023.
The chart describes the % fed funds rate versus the index level of S&P 500. The % fed funds rate is represented by the lefthand side axis. The index level of S&P 500 is represented by the righthand side axis. For the fed funds rate line, the first data point came in at 0.25% on January 1, 2021. The line stayed flat until November 3, 2022. After which it started heading up until the most recent data point, which was 5.5% on July 26, 2023. For the S&P 500 line, the first data point came in at 3,756 on January 1, 2021. The line trended upward until it peaked at 4,766 on December 31, 2021. Later it went all the way down until it bottomed out at 3,583 on October 14, 2022. Then it went back up to and reached 4,567 on July 26, 2023.

2. On the economy: Even the recessionistas can’t deny the recent Barbie vibes

The U.S. economy is still feeling good. Yesterday brought the official read on growth in the second quarter, with GDP printing at an above-expected 2.4%. The sources of the boost added to the flare—consumption saw a solid lift (from spending on both goods and services), prices cooled, and capex spending popped thanks to industrial policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act.

Q2 GDP showed the U.S. economy is in the summer mood

Source: Bureau of Economic Data, Haver Analytics. Data as of June 30 2023.
This bar chart shows the contribution by segment to U.S. Q2 Gross Domestic Product, quarter-over-quarter annualized. The lefthand axis shows the percentage ranging from -3% to 3%. From left to right there are seven different labels—one for GDP and its six components listed, each of which have two bars, one for Q1 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP and another for Q2 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP. The first label is Real GDP. It has a bar measuring 2.0% for Q1 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP, and 2.4% for Q2 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP. The first component labeled personal consumption expenditure has a bar measuring 2.8% for Q1 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP, and 1.1% for Q2 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP. The second component labeled non-residential fixed investment has a bar measuring 0.1% for Q1 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP, and 1.0% for Q2 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP. The third component labeled residential fixed investment has a bar measuring -0.2% for Q1 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP, and -0.2% for Q2 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP. The fourth component labeled net exports has a bar measuring 0.6% for Q1 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP, and -0.1% for Q2 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP. The fifth component labeled government spending has a bar measuring 0.9% for Q1 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP, and 0.5% for Q2 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP. The sixth component labeled inventories has a bar measuring -2.1% for Q1 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP, and 0.1% for Q2 2023 quarter-over-quarter GDP.
Other measures sang to the same tune. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the last week hit its lowest since February. And in a sign that last year’s downtrodden sectors may be finding their footing, a key leading indicator for manufacturing saw its first increase in three months, and contracts to buy previously owned homes climbed. 

Reshuffle: U.S. manufacturing could be finding its footing

Source: S&P Global, Haver Analytics. Data as of July 24, 2023.
This chart shows the composite, services and manufacturing PMI level in three separate lines. It indicates that PMI level (50+ = expansion) (50-=contraction). Note that the x-axis is set at 50 to split up the expansion and contraction territory. The composite PMI line started at 54 in January 2019. It declined until its bottom at 27 in April 2020. It went back up and peaked at 69 in May 2021. Then it trended downward and hit its bottom at 45 in August 2022. In the end, it recovered and bounced back. The last data point came in at 52 in July 2023. The services PMI line started at 54 in January 2019. It declined until its bottom at 27 in April 2020. It went back up and peaked at 70 in May 2022. Then it trended downward and hit its bottom at 44 in August 2022. In the end, it recovered and bounced back. The last data point came in at 52 in July 2023. The manufacturing PMI line started at 55 in January 2019. It declined until its bottom at 36 in April 2020. It went back up and peaked at 63 in July 2021. Then it trended downward and hit its bottom at 46 in December 2022. In the end, it recovered and bounced back slightly. The last data point came in at 49 in July 2023. There are two arrows showing that at the end of the series, the composite and services PMI lines have been converging with the manufacturing PMI, with the composite and services lines going down and manufacturing line picking up.

Meanwhile, Europe is having an Oppenheimer summer. Manufacturing activity worsened even more in June, services parts of the economy are now seeing softer momentum, and business sentiment is also taking a hit (just look to Germany’s latest IFO reading). The upshot, though, is that inflation is also cooling—the bad news comes with some good.

3. On earnings: Oppenheimer may get this quarter, but Barbie is still working some magic.

This week marks the busiest for Q2 earnings.

The not-so-good news: So far, it’s shaping up to be the worst quarter since Q2 2020 (with consensus anticipating earnings to contract -7.5% year-over-year). While almost 82% of the companies that have reported have beaten estimates (handily above the 77% average over the last five years), they’re “only” beating at a rate of 6.5% (compared to the 8.4% five-year average). That feels Oppenheimer-y.

But we also see some Barbie vibes. It could be the case that the bar was set pretty high heading into the season. That’s meant that names that have had a good run (such as Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla or LVMH) are being punished for results that, to us, don’t look all that bad (or far from it). When you look under the hood, it’s still shaping up to be a decent season—even a good one—for many bellwether companies. Banks have done much better than expected (not to mention the PacWest/Banc of California merger was also good news for the sector this week), some other mega-cap tech names are going from strength to strength, and a handful of consumer companies are showcasing still-robust spending.

4. On commercial real estate: Oppenheimer in the office space, but less gloomy as a whole.

CRE, especially in the office space, has been feared as one of the biggest ripple effects of the bank crisis.

The Oppenheimer crew might lean on climbing vacancy rates in big cities. Look no further than the latest cover of New York Magazine. According to researchers from Harvard and MIT, there’s around 75 million square feet of vacant office space in New York City—enough to fill more than 26 Empire State Buildings!

And that stretches beyond just the Big Apple. JLL recently noted that less than 5 million square feet of new offices have broken ground this year, while 14.7 million square feet have been axed—that’s the first net decline since at least 2000. This lack of income puts loans issued by banks for CRE at risk—but it’s still TBD what the correction will look like.

The Barbie folk might argue that the office sector represents such a small part of the overall economy (office construction remains a modest 0.4% of U.S. GDP), and that challenges here can’t be generalized. There’s certainly weight to that, but the risk of CRE loans to small banks probably gives this round to the Oppenheimer crew for now.

5. On China: Policymakers are doing the Barbie song and dance, but growth has yet to get its heels back up.

Earlier this week, China’s Politburo (its top decision-making body) called for adding more support for the property sector (which continues to weigh on growth), improving domestic demand (to boost incomes and consumption in areas such as travel, leisure and sports), and strengthening “counter-cyclical” adjustments.

The feel is that while it’s still China’s same brand of “mini easing,” the tone was more pro-growth and constructive than it has been. At some point, all the slow-moving stimulus could help move the needle and get the consumer moving. There’s still much progress to be made: Chinese consumers are sitting on hordes of excess savings, and retail sales are still 10% below their pre-COVID trend.

A catch-up play by the Chinese consumer could support growth

Sources: (LHS) CNBS, JPM WM. Data as of March 2023. (RHS) Sources: CNBS, Haver Analytics. Data as of May 2023.
The chart on the left shows the cumulative savings since 2016 of Chinese consumers in trillions of RMB. In 2016, it was -515,299; in 2017, it was -393,246; in 2019, it was 176,771; in 2022, it was 5,794,195; and in 2023, the latest reading was 6,479,352. The chart on the right shows Chinese monthly retail sales starting in 2009 via 12-month moving average and in trillions of RMB. The chart also includes a trend line showing the pre-COVID projection in an upward sloping line. In March 2009, retail sales were 112,304, and in May 2014, they were 245,671, and in July 2017, they were 351,883, and in June 2021, it was 431,663, and in May 2023, it was 456,450.

With all that in mind, the Hang Seng rounded out this week with a +4.7% gain.

And the winner is….

Both Barbie and Oppenheimer have blown past box-office expectations, sending cinema stocks such as AMC, IMAX and Cineworld soaring on Monday. Yet, it was Barbie that almost doubled Oppenheimer’s total sales during its opening weekend. While it’s yet to be seen if its hold remains, stocks at least seem to agree with the winner, and have continued their summer vibe-shift.

While it may not be all smooth sailing, the rally offers an opportunity to broaden and balance equity portfolios (into undervalued pockets of the market such as mid-caps, dividend-growth companies, and long-term trends around the energy transition, industrial policy and digital transformation). The recent pop in yields (10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 4% this week) offers a still-compelling entry point in fixed income. And with borrowers turning to alternative sources of lending as banks tighten their standards, now could be the time to take advantage of private credit and stressed/distressed opportunities.

Your J.P. Morgan team is here to discuss these dynamics, and maybe even offer their take on which flick they liked better.

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All market and economic data as of July 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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